Posted by: Tom Keene on October 14, 2011
Moving Averages are the Land of the Amateur. By definition, they lag. And then, there is the immodest question of how many units to use and, how many moving averages to use.
Heavy lifting: the weight, the back-tested lifting has been done for you.
First, there is ample mathematical proof that moving averages taken in their own space, taken discretely, are a license to lose money. Only, only when used with other analysis do they add value.
Secondly, very smart people have done a lot of work in this space (and the euclidian "space" between two adjacent lines of a three-moving average study on a log y-axis is a big deal.)
Thirdly, and finally, moving averages are nothing more than lagged, trend-based visual signposts across a given series's x-axis continuum.
Confused? Study George Kleinman, TMVTT, and re-read and re-read and...
Moving averages will not MAKE you money. They will assist in NOT LOSING money. And if you do lose capital, blame all, blame all on the Death Cross. Discuss.
Posted by: Tom Keene on October 13, 2011
The handshake is let's-talk-business firm. The greeting is collegial and winning. And, he is. (Would a properly schooled media consultant have gone with the tie in equity-kicker gold?)
It is not my place to give opinion on the surging politics of Herman Cain. I can report a bounce in his step, a certain enthusiasm that surrounds his modest entourage.
I am in search of an economist/strategist/analyst who can suggest that a "hypothetical" implementation and/or debate-through-legislative-process of "9-9-9" could be possible.
Most move immediately to the righteth 9, the value-added-national-sales-tax 9. The "analysis" sums to dead-on-arrival and, migrates to 9 becoming 9.9 becoming 10.X, becoming 1X.XX. No, not 29...I flunked Roman Numerals, too. (For public response, see the Canadian vaudeville act Trudeau & Mulroney and "their" Goods and Services Tax, vintage 1991.)
Enough. Sleep deprivation envelopes (a Dartmouth All-Nighter).
It is a time for 60-weeks-from-election policies & plans. Mr. Cain creates an important and supportable moment for a set of America. Perhaps, another set, a larger set will simply say, Nein, Nein, Nein. Discuss.
Posted by: Tom Keene on October 7, 2011
"He's patient. He's not flopping around back there. He's very stable," Dartmouth coach Bob Gaudet said. "With the style we have, he's a really good complement for the rest of our team. We should be a really good, solid team, and he'll be a big part of it."
Phil Perry, New England Hockey Journal, January 2011
There will be a presidential (excuse me, a Presidential) debate, Tuesday. Suits and ties will descend upon Dartmouth College and Hanover, NH (rated #1 perfect bubble-like city). Certitude will be spoken. Candidate rebuttal debated. Knives sheathed. (It's October, for crying out loud.)
There will be cuts. Of the eight candidates, x number will disappear into the azure mist of the Land of Speaking Fees. Y candidates will sustain until an angel descends and the Grand Old Party selects of the 8 or 9 or 10?
I suggest that Bloomberg and the Washington Post hold the debate at the Rupert C. Thompson Arena where Bob Gaudet doesn't cut.
Rather, he takes skilled, smart underclassman and mints upperclassman who ask pointed questions that would make the American Jockocracy and GOP Candidates squirm. Even worse, they become "was educated at" and vote.
All of this dissolves to how totally disconnected the Candidates are from the public. A 14% approval rating for our Congress? Really?
Michele, Mitt, Rick-squared and rest would be so brave as to receive questions from the student Green I spoke to this perfect-bubble autumn day.
Said Candidates could do no better than to skate (stagger) in on goalie James Mello, he of Rehoboth, MA, established 1643. (Shh! I beat him glove-side high as he established how totally lame I was.) Mello would launch a pierce-ed question that would give pause. If we were ever so lucky, young Mello, Coach Gaudet and even us...would get a straight answer.
It's A Big Country. Our political-class cynicale should understand that James Mello and all of Hanover are begging, begging for Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Perry, Romney, and Santorum to exit their self-inflicted Dartmouth Bubble. Discuss.
Posted by: Tom Keene on October 5, 2011
Stocks rose after the Financial Times quoted Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, as saying there is an "increasingly shared view" that the region needs a coordinated approach to halt the sovereign debt crisis.
Regan & Nazareth, Bloomberg News
There you go again. Coordinated. It's a shared view, and increasing. Consider the shorts stopped out!o
I have no clue on the vector of the "markets" other than to suggest that a VIX of 40.82 suggests a less-crowded trade and a mean, mean-reversion towards 20.50 sometime before Chris Christie runs for President of the New Jersey States of America.
Meanwhile, back at the data-check ranch....how to keep up, how to measure, how to gauge where you are?
Enter the cross-asset data check. Cross-asset means equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. For global Wall Street it is best sequenced currencies, bonds, commodities and equities.
I digress. Within the present VIX-above-40 ark, which animal should you follow? Connect the dots from state of equities (futures) to yield movement, 10-year and 2s/10s spread dynamics, to oil and gold delta to the tripod of EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY and the secondary noise of say DXY, copper and the 30-year bond yield.
Confused? Like your 201(k), it's more art than science. It is, in a time of maximum epsilon, a cross-asset cacophony. Discuss.
Posted by: Tom Keene on October 4, 2011
#occupywallstreet http://t.co/TmnYaovp Americans, start acting for your freedoms, stop being lazy ***kers
It is in each and every way a personal experience; a fallback on childhood.
Item: The mothers of TriBeCa descend upon the ice rink to instruct future straight-teethed prepsters in the art of Sidney Crosby. They, Mothers in black, are marginally kind to Fathers working the marginal 70-hour work week.
Item: I detect, after square-root on "n" analysis that the begging on New York City streets is more desperate.
Item: They (who?) await, AWEIGHT, Chris Christie wait and wait and wait...
And, the bid falls away...in Bank of America, and advances in the 10-year Note. Copper and oil descend.
Most alternative-minimum-tax animals that I know are "acting for their freedoms." They aspire to medical insurance (the deductible on three stitches in the primogeniture chin gives pause.) They anticipate the PSATs. They will attempt to not separate and/or divorce given a dearth of "lazy."
They want to contribute. They want to work and "support." Let me repeat the ancient, and I do mean Franklinian ancient, American desire.
They, wife & husband, want to work.
"Want" is the delta between legitimate angst and "lazy ***k-is-what-the-post-collegiate-hipsters-protesteth-too-much-do-during-Jets-halftime." No wonder I scored at a lesser rate: I'm not a Jets fan.
Seriously, the tape is terrible. (Tape, in 2011, is cross-asset with non-bonused FX emphasis.)
We need to define the debate, occupy cross-asset markets, and occupy conversation with smart people. Our politicians need to "occupy" action. The natives are restless. Rumble, rumble, rumble; Mutiny, mutiny, mutiny.
Protest! Ken and I, and You. And with thanks, You do...occupy Surveillance. Discuss.
