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Poll No. 176
May, 14 2011

The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali reveals the following:
53.0% of Palestinians believe that Dr. Salam Fayyad is the best candidate for Prime Minister of the next cabinet.
79.7%  support the reconciliation agreement that was signed in Cairo.
51.7%  are unsatisfied to varying degrees with the way that Al-Jazeera satellite channel broadcast Palestine related issues.
69.9%  oppose to varying degrees the launching of Al-Qassam rockets from Gaza into Israel.
74.5%  believe that military escalation is in Israel’s interest.
70.5 % expect a break out of a third Intifada if Israeli- Palestinian negotiations reach an impasse.

Beit Sahour – Public Relations Office
A recent poll was prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion  PCPO; www.pcpo.org.

The poll that included a random sample of 950 Palestinian adults i.e. over 18 years old from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank including East Jerusalem and was carried out in the period May 5-12, 2011, reveals that 79.7% of Palestinians support the reconciliation agreement that was signed in Cairo.

President of the PCPO Dr. Nabil Kukali stated that achieving the ambitions of Palestinians necessitates measures that will establish principles of reconciliation in addition to sincere efforts and a national and responsible volition that will place national interests as a top priority. Dr. Nabil Kukali also stated that such ambitions can be achieved within a democratic framework and by promoting national unity based on partnership and political pluralism, and in accordance to laws and by employing the mass media in favor of the national interest. Dr. Nabil Kukali added that this will be the only way that will lead us out of the status of the political divide that harmed our political, cultural, social and economic situation and also affected our relations with the countries that support our issue. Dr. Kukali also stated that world countries are required to support the reconciliation process for the latter will promote democracy and stability in the area.

Dr. Kukali pointed out to the fact that Israel has to comply by the economic agreement that was signed between Israel and the Palestinian Authority  PA in Paris  Paris Protocol regarding taxes and customs and has to remit all dues to their owners, since adding more economic restrictions on Palestinians will escalate violence in the region, something that the result of this poll reveals where 70.5% of Palestinians expect a break out of a third Intifada had Israeli- Palestinian negotiations reached a deadlock. When comparing this percentage with that of a previous poll that was conducted this time of last year and was published on May 5, 2010 revealed that 72.2 % of Palestinians opposed a break out of a third Intifada as opposed to 22.8 % who supported it. The effect of the Palestinian youth through the “Facebook” under the title “A third Intifada in commemorating the Nakba catastrophe” seems obvious and has clearly affected the results of this poll given the impact the popular movements in the Arab world had on the Palestinian society.

Dr. Kukali added that like people in other Arab countries, Palestinians yearn for freedom and independence and aspire to get rid of the occupation and establish united and strong country.

Dr. Kukali stated that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians 81.0 % believe that Israel is the party that will gain the benefit most from any Palestinian- Palestinian internal divide and will give it a leeway to avert international pressure and to avoid compliance to previous commitments. He also stated that such a divide will give a pretext to Israel to question the ability of Palestinians to establish their state and to sustain that there is no possibility to make peace with them. Dr. Kukali said that Israel claimed that it wanted to establish peace with a strong and united Palestinian leadership and not with two conflicting parties.

Dr. Kukali also stated that a plurality  53.0 % of Palestinians believe that Dr. Salam Fayyad is the best candidate for being the prime minister in the next cabinet  61.7 % in the West Bank as opposed to 38.6% in the Gaza Strip.
He added that the Palestinian support of Dr. Salam Fayyad stems from their respect to his professionalism  and honesty since his holding this position in 2007, because of what he has achieved on the ground and his laying the ground for a well-developed PA.

Dr. Kukali added that Dr. Fayyad also combated corruption and money grafting in addition to his possessing a clear vision and gaining the respect of the international community. Dr. Kukali added that Palestinians perceive Dr. Fayyad as a person who is capable of boosting the Palestinian economy, rebuilding Gaza, and setting up the security establishment on a solid ground towards building an independent state.

Reconciliation
79.7% of the Palestinians support the reconciliation agreement that was signed on May 4, 2011 in Cairo, whereas 18.4% oppose and 1.9% abstain from giving an opinion. However, 81.4% of Palestinians believe that Israel benefits most from any internal Palestinian dispute, whereas 17.8% believe that the conflicting factions are the ones that benefit most, yet 0.8% express no opinion.

The Best Candidate for Prime Minister
53.0% of Palestinians believe that Dr. Salam Fayyad is the best candidate for Prime Minister in the next cabinet that is due to last for one year after the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas and before holding the next elections. However, 14.6% say that Mr. Ismael Hanieh is the best candidate, whereas 24.1% are in favor of an independent person, and 8.3% are hesitant to give an opinion.

Al-Jazeera Satellite Channel
When asked “ In general, are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the way Al-Jazeera broadcasts Palestinian related news” 39.0% of Palestinians say that they are somewhat unsatisfied, whereas 12.7% say they are strongly unsatisfied , 10.0% strongly satisfied, 37.0% somewhat satisfied, and 1.3% say “ I do not know”.

TV Satellite Channels
42.1% of the Palestinians believe that Al-Jazeera is the channel that is watched most, followed by Al-Arabia  27.4%, then 10.2% for Palestine Channel, 7.3% for Al-Aqsa, 4.7% for MBC, 4.6% for Al Hurra, 2.4% for Al- Manar, and 1.3% for other channels.

Popular Movements and Changes in the Arab World
62.8% of Palestinians believe that the first beneficiary from the popular movements “street revolutions” and changes in the Arab world is the Arab public, followed by the United States and the West 15.8%, then Israel 11.8%, Palestinians 7.8%, Iran 1.4% and 0.4% do not know.

When asked “ In your opinion, how the events that took place in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya and in other Arab countries would affect the chance of Palestinians in establishing an independent state, would they positively or negatively affect that chance?” 55.3% say they will have a positive effect, as opposed to 20.1% who say the opposite, and 23.3% believe they make no difference, and 1.3% do not know.

Resuming Peaceful Negotiations
When asked “In general, do you support or oppose resuming peaceful negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis under the current circumstances?” 40.2% of Palestinians support this resumption, whereas 32.7% have a mixed feeling, 25.2% oppose, and 1.9% I do not know.

When asked “ In your opinion, which of the following means is the best to end the occupation and lead to the establishing of an independent Palestinian state” 32.1% of the respondents are in favor of negotiations until an agreement between the two parties is reached, whereas 25.0% are in favor of the non-violent  popular resistance, 12.4% through the United Nations, 23.1% by holding an international conference that will impose a solution on all parties, 5.0% are for military operations, and 2.4% otherwise.

Peace with the Israelis
When asked “Do you think that Israelis are interested in making peace with Palestinians?” 44.7% say no, whereas 45.5% say yes to a certain degree, 8.4% yes, 1.4% do not know.

When asked “Do you expect that a peace agreement will be reached between Israelis and Palestinians in the next year?” a plurality 60.5% say yes to a certain degree, 23.8% say no, 14.2% say yes, and 1.5% “do not know”.

When asked “ Are you more optimistic or pessimistic than before in terms of reaching a final solution between Israel and the Palestinians” 15.4% express more optimism than before, 35.7% remain as optimistic, 24.8% remain as pessimistic, 21.9% are more pessimistic, and 2.2% do not know.

Failure of Settlement Efforts
When asked “ In case all efforts towards peace have collapsed, which of the following options are most probable to administer Palestinian affairs?” more than one-third  37.4% of Palestinians are for the dismantling the PA and holding the international community responsible for the legal vacuum that will arise, whereas 24.7% are in favor of declaring a Palestinian state and escalating resistance, 34.6% for keeping the “ status quo” with developing new strategies to run Palestinian affairs, and 3.3% say “do not know”.

Military Escalation
Almost three-fourth  74.5% of Palestinians believe that any military escalation in the Gaza Strip will be in Israel’s interest, whereas 18.9% believe it will in Hamas’s interest, 0.6% in Fatah interest, 5.3% for the Palestinian issue and 0.7% “do not know.”

When asked “What is your view regarding the resuming of launching Al-Qassam missiles from Gaza into Israel?” 13.8% say they strongly support, whereas 16.0% somewhat support, 27.1% somewhat oppose, 42.5% strongly oppose, yet 0.2% express no opinion.

Third Intifada
A majority  70.5% of Palestinians expect a break out of a third Intifada that will be similar to that of 1987 or that of Al-Aqsa one in case Israeli-Palestinian peace talks stumbled. However, 25.5% oppose its occurrence, whereas 4.0% abstain from answering this question.

Local Elections
An overwhelming majority 82.3% of Palestinians express interest in voting in the next local elections, whereas 15.7% say they will not cast their ballot, and 2.0% are hesitant to answer this question.
When asked “will you note for the same candidate or slate as you did in the last elections?” 51.1% say yes, whereas 28.0% say no, 14.9% say they have not made-up their mind yet in whether or not they will cast their ballot, and 5.6% say “do not know”.
When asked “What quality do you expect a local municipal council should have?” 42.0% say it is professionalism, whereas 14.5% say it is the political affiliation, 13.3% his/her capability to mediate with governmental institutions, 11.8% history of struggle for freedom, 9.4% good reputation, 5.5% religiosity, and 3.5% family affiliation.

Presidential Elections
This survey reveals that Mahmoud Abbas is the best candidate for presidency in the next elections with a percentage of  32.5%, followed by 12.1% for Ismael Hanieh, 10.2% Marwan Barghouthi, 6.1% Salam Fayyad, 4.2% Mustafa Barghouthi, 3.6% Mohammad Dahlan, 0.4% otherwise. However, 12.6% of the respondents say they will not cast their ballot, and 18.3% say they have not made-up their mind yet.

When asked “If new PA presidential elections are held, and Mahmoud Abbas was Fatah’s candidate, while Ismael Hanieh was Hamas’s candidate, whom would you vote for? More than half of the Palestinians 57.8% will vote for Mahmoud Abbas, whereas 13.1% will vote for Ismael Hanieh. However, 26.0% say they will not cast their ballot, and 3.1% say “I do not know”.

When asked “ If competition in the elections was between Fatah’s candidate Marwan Barghouthi, and Hamas’s candidate Ismael Hanieh, whom would you vote for?” 55.4% say they would vote for Marwan Barghouthi, whereas 13.5% would vote for Ismael Hanieh, 28.5% will not cast ballot, and 2.6% express no opinion.

Salam Fayyad
When asked “If competition in the presidential elections was between Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad, whom would you vote for?” 48.4% of the respondents say they would vote for Mahmoud Abbas, whereas 15.2% say they would vote for Salam Fayyad, 31.5% will not cast ballot, and 4.9% do not know.
When asked “ if competition was between Ismael Hanieh and Salam Fayyad, whom would you vote for?” the answer was as follows: 14.7% for Ismael Hanieh, 49.1%  Salam Fayyad, 32.7 will not cast ballot, and 3.5% “do not know”.

A Woman for Presidency
A little less than two-thirds 62.9% of the Palestinians oppose that a woman take over the presidency of the PA, whereas 35.1% support, and 2.0% abstain from expressing their opinion.

Performance of Mahmoud Abbas
More than half 53.7% of Palestinians say that they are satisfied with the performance of Mahmoud Abbas in his capacity as the president of the PA, whereas 41.0% say the opposite, and 5.3% express no opinion.

Peace Forces
When asked “ in case a peace agreement is not far from being signed, do you support the deployment of multinational forces in the West Bank and Gaza Strip?” 7.8% say they strongly support, whereas 32.7% somewhat oppose, 24.5% strongly oppose, and 1.6% say “do not know”.

Methodology of the Survey Study:

Miss Rana Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies’ Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents’ homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least five hours a’ day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper presentation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using the Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of 155 election sites, from which 110 are located in the West Bank and 45 sites in Gaza Strip.

Miss R. Kukali has further established that the margin of error in this poll was ± 3.18% at a confidence level of 95%. She added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was 49.5% and that of the male respondents was 50.5%. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was 63.2% in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and 36.8% in Gaza Strip, allocated as follows: 52.2 % urban areas, 30.8% rural areas and 17.5% refugee camps. The average age of the sample respondents was 32.4 years.

About PCPO:
The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion PCPO was founded in February 1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who became the director of this center since that time.
Since that time we are dedicated to the following activities:
1 Conducting public opinion surveys.
2 Omnibus polls and services.
3 Market studies on all kinds of trading activities.
4 Surveys of consumer attitudes, consumption habits, and market shares.
5 Communication researches.
6 Focus group sessions and workshops on various topics.
7 Rendering services in the field of investment, including feasibility studies.
8 In-depth interviews & brainstorming workshops.
9 Translation services from Arabic into English, German & Hebrew and vice-versa.

PCPO is now a name for reliability, credibility and experience not only in Palestine, but all over the world.
Find out more about us, along with the latest polls at: www.pcpo.org