Writing for Foreign Policy, Michael Robbins and Mark Tessler argue that in spite of Ennahda’s strong performance in Tunisia’s recent elections, statistics indicate “that Ennahda’s victory was not a clear call for a more religious political system,” and economic factors still dominate the public sphere. Citing results of an Arab Barometer poll, the authors suggest “that Tunisians believe that Islam should inform some elements of political life … [and] it appears that Tunisians tend to support laws that are both grounded in the will of the people and in accordance with religious law.” Tunisian’s seem to prefer Islam to influence politics in a “informing but not driving” manner, and it appears that the majority of them remain primarily concerned with economic matters.

Tunisians seem to believe that some aspects associated with liberal democracy have been achieved thus far, according to survey results, and more than three-quarters (76.5 percent) of respondents indicated that they supported a civil state compared to 23.5 percent who stated that they wanted a religious state. Overall, Robbins and Tessler contend it is “clear that Tunisians continue to have high hopes for the achievements of the ongoing political transition, although most central to these are hopes for a better economic future.”

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said the humanitarian situation in Syria is serious, but that the country does not qualify as being involved in a civil war since the armed resistance lacks organization. ICRC President Jakob Kellenberger said the agency would not visit any more Syrian prisons until authorities fully accepted its terms. Although a civil war classification is not yet applicable, Kellenberger called it “an extremely serious humanitarian situation.” The ICRC assesses whether violent situations amount to civil war based on international law including the Geneva Conventions and decisions by tribunals.

Meanwhile, Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby stated that Syria should sign an Arab League-proposed peace plan as soon as possible to avert economic penalties from Arab states. He also held talks with senior officials in Iraq to “explore whether the Iraqi government is willing to exert its influence with Syria” to agree to the Arab plan. Additionally, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov warned that Syrians should be allowed to sort out their country’s problems without outside interference, reiterating his comparison to the situation in Yemen. ”Nobody put any very extreme deadlines or ultimatums (on Yemen), everybody pulled together and in a couple of months this peace plan was signed,” Mr Lavrov said. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen also stressed that the alliance has ”no intention whatsoever to intervene in Syria.”

Approximately 2,000 protesters took to the streets of Tripoli urging militias to relinquish their weapons and retreat to their hometowns. The government has set December 20 as a deadline for the militias to leave, and the local government chief urged residents of the capital to continue staging protests to pressure the former rebels to leave. Protesters waved flags and chanted “We want safety, not weapons,” complaining that they felt unsafe on the streets and that militiamen have been causing problems. ”To me they are not revolutionaries anymore, they are gangs,” said Abdurrauf bin Suleiman, a resident of Tripoli.

Abdallah Naker, an influential commander from the Zintan brigade, said, “It is very difficult to disarm the country overnight. We are all against weapons but there must be a mechanism to disarm the country.” He added, “There is no state currently. We have not received any proposal from the government. When institutions are really set up, we will talk.”

Bahrain has reportedly halted trials for over 100 athletes and dropped all charges related to their participation in street protests. The athletes were among hundreds detained and put on trial, charged with illegal assembly, inciting hatred against the monarchy and defaming leaders. Attorney General Abdulrahman al-Sayyed said state prosecutors dropped cases against athletes because the king “said in a speech that he pardoned those who abused the iconic figures of the state, [and] the case has lost its significance …” However, the future of athletes already sentenced to prison time remains unclear. Al-Sayyed added that the case against teachers accused of “exploiting their profession to perform illegal political activities” will continue.

Additionally, Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa issued an order to refer all cases related to deaths, torture and, inhumane treatment implicating police officers to public prosecutors, which is “part of his dedication to implement the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry.” He also ordered that cameras be installed to ensure visual and audio recording for all official interviews of detainees.

UPDATE** The International Committee of the Red Cross signed a measure with the Bahraini government that will give it access to detainees in the country. ”This agreement will allow ICRC delegates to visit all detainees in all places of detention under the responsibility of the Ministry of the Interior,” said Gérard Peytrignet, the head of the ICRC regional delegation in Kuwait.

As Egypt’s new cabinet was sworn in, the SCAF announced that it will appoint a council to check the influence of religious extremists on the constitutional drafting process after declaring that the next parliament will not be representative enough to independently oversee the writing of a constitution. ”We are in the early stages of democracy,” said General Mukhtar Mulla, a member of the ruling military council. “The parliament is not representing all sectors of society.” According to constitutional amendments approved last March, the new elected parliament will be charged with forming a 100-member constituent assembly to write the new constitution. Mulla added that the new council will coordinate with parliament and the cabinet to ensure the assembly is representative of all religions, professions, and political parties.

The Associated Press also reported that the Muslim Brotherhood says it will boycott the council that will oversee drafting of the new constitution. Meanwhile, Nicholas D. Kristof writes that many Muslim Brotherhood members with whom he met ensured him, “We embrace moderate Islam … We are not the ultra-conservatives that people in the West envision.”

In the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s “Guide to Egypt’s Transition,” Nathan Brown argues that although the international community is currently focused on Egypt’s parliamentary elections, it is “not too soon to think about the implications of presidential elections that have yet to be scheduled.” Brown feels that the lack of planning “should cause deep concern.”

Whereas it seems that the SCAF’s pledge to hold presidential elections by the end of June 2012 was a concession in response to popular protests, the “apparent concession could quite easily contain the seeds of a new crisis,” as the SCAF has not promised to hold presidential elections before the new constitution is drafted. This sequence of events, which could allow the constitution to be written before a president is elected, provides the SCAF with an opportunity to control the drafting process, leaving “Egyptians with an unworkable, rushed process that leaves the military’s levers of control more powerful rather than less.”

Brown also notes that, “Parliamentarians now being elected may therefore find not only that they cannot oversee the executive or stop the SCAF from writing laws, but also that that their most significant task—naming those who will write the constitution—has been robbed of much of its force by the generals.”

The Libyan government promised to disarm Tripoli by the end of December in an attempt to rid the city of rogue rebels. Abdul Razzak Buhajar, Tripoli’s council chief, stated the government has “assured the Tripoli council that the entire city will be disarmed” after speaking with Prime Minister Abdel Rahim al-Kib. Al-Kib set a two week deadline for the rebels to either leave the city or disarm. Security forces spread throughout Tripoli on Wednesday to begin disarming, setting up roadblocks as there were some reports of sporadic violence in the city. Some residents of Tripoli demonstrated on Wednesday against the militias after some raided the office of the prosecution general.

Meanwhile, in Misrata, militias have amassed a huge stockpile of weapons, prompting a grave challenge to the new government’s authority.  Geoff Porter, a North Africa expert, stated, “The government does not have a monopoly on force in the country…without it, the state’s ability to function is jeopardized.” The large stockpiles of weapons in Misrata give the militias leverage in a fight for power with the government, which could turn violent.

Bahraini security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets at opposition supporters as they gathered in villages around Manama to mark Ashoura and attempted to march on Pearl Square. Mohammed al-Maskati, president of the Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, told Al Jazeera once the protesters got close to the site of the former roundabout, security forces fired upon the crowds: ”There are a lot of injuries. [People are] trying to transfer them to the closest houses to treat them, there are nurses who are volunteers.” In the wake of the protests, additional security forces have been deployed around the Bahrain International Airport, some major malls and supermarkets. Additionally, Zahra Saleh, who was seriously hurt during a recent protest, died of her injuries, according to the ministry of health. The ministry’s statement said the 27-year-old woman sustained head injuries during “rioting” last month, and the ministry confirmed the death via Twitter as well.

Meanwhile, conservative lawmaker Ali Zayed called for setting up a separate college for girls within the University of Bahrain and attributed the move to demands from a large segment of the society. “I am aware that such a proposal had been submitted in the past,” the lawmaker said. “However, there is a segment in the society which insists on it as they do not feel at ease with mixed education. The state has to respect their feelings,” he added.

On Tuesday, the WoodrowWilsonCenterhosted an event entitled “In the Middle of the Storm: Development and Governance in the Arab World,” which consisted of two panels. The first panel discussed regional Arab reform and featured Tamara Wittes, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs; Mara Rudman of the Bureau for Middle East at USAID; and Miriam Allam, a Safadi Scholar and Economist. Lina Khatib, the Co-Founder of the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy moderated the event.

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF. Read more…

Yemeni Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi issued a decree establishing a unity government headed by opposition leader Mohammed Basindwa, Yemen’s state news agency Saba reported. The cabinet consists of 35 members and posts will be equally divided between Saleh’s governing General Congress Party and opposition members. Members of the General Congress Party will head the ministries of defense, foreign affairs, and oil, while opposition politicians will lead the ministries of interior, finance, and information. Additionally, the cabinet includes two women, one from each side. Further elections are scheduled to take place on February 21, 2012.

Ahead of the announcement, troops loyal Saleh exchanged fire with armed tribesmen backed by defected army members in Sanaa. Charles Schmitz writes that the GCC-brokered deal to remove Saleh from power “has only compounded Yemen’s problems” due to ongoing violence and widespread political uncertainty.

Amnesty International found that the U.S. continually shipped arms to Egyptian security forces despite the use of violence to crack down on demonstrators. Amnesty noted that a “shipment for the Egyptian Ministry of Interior arrived from the US on 26 November carrying at least seven tons of ‘ammunition smoke’ – which includes chemical irritants and riot control agents such as tear gas.” This was one of three shipments  deliveries to Egypt by the U.S. company Combined Systems, Inc. since the brutal crackdown on the “25 January Revolution” protestors.

Amnesty stated that the shipments are not illegal, but suggested that security forces gravely misused the weapons in quelling protesters. Brian Wood of Amnesty noted that “Egypt’s security forces, including the riot police, must be reformed and trained to respect U.N. standards on use of force and firearms. Without fundamental change in the behaviour and accountability of the security forces, it is irresponsible for foreign countries to provide arms and other equipment to forces that are most likely to misuse them.” He further added that ”arms shipments to Egypt’s security forces must be stopped until there is certainty that tear gas and other munitions, weaponry or other equipment aren’t linked to bloodshed on Egyptian streets.”

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) said on Wednesday that they won a majority of seats in the run-off elections, with Salafis coming in second. One source told Reuters that the FJP secured 39 individual seats out of 45 it contested. While official results are announced on Thursday, some suggest that many secular moderates backed the Muslim Brotherhood to block the hard line Salafiis.

As Egypt’s ruling military leaders granted Prime Minister Kamal el-Ganzouri presidential powers, Ganzouri named a new cabinet on Wednesday. Mohammed Ibrahim Yusuf, former Cairo police chief, was appointed as the minister of interior,  Mumtaz al-Said as finance minister, and Mohammed Kamel Amr was reappointed as the foreign minister.

Meanwhile, an Egyptian court denied an appeal for a new judge in the trial of former President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak faces a range of charges including involvement in killing protesters as the court did not explain why it rejected the appeal. Lawyers representing the families of protesters killed during the uprising filed a suit calling for the presiding judge Ahmed Refaat to be replaced.

In an interview with Barbara Walters, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claimed he is not responsible for violence that, according to U.N. estimates, has killed more than 4,000 people. “We don’t kill our people … no government in the world kills its people, unless it’s led by a crazy person,” Assad told Walters, adding that “most of the people that have been killed are supporters of the government.” Assad attributed the violence to “armed criminal gangs” and terrorists, but admitted that some officials had made mistakes: “There is a difference between having a policy to crack down and between having some mistakes committed by some officials.” Assad also denied any guilt regarding the deaths, saying “I did my best to protect the people. I cannot feel guilty when you do your best. You feel sorry for the lives that have been lost. But you don’t feel guilty when you don’t kill people.” A portion of the interview can be seen below.

Meanwhile, the Syrian government ratified a new constitution that promoted Assad to a “team” military rank and commander-in-chief of the Syrian military and the armed forces, according to a report published Tuesday. Additionally, Russia urged patience with the Syrian regime much like was exercised with President Saleh of Yemen. “The same kind of patience, the same kind of responsibility needs to be exercised in relation to the realization of the plan of the Arab League in Syria,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Alexander Marquardt also writes an account of his visit to Daraa, Syria, where he finds “pervasive fear” to speak out.

The United States has launched a web-based “embassy” in both English and Farsi in what observers have called “a bid to promote dialogue with the Iranian people in the absence of formal diplomatic ties.” The site offers visitors what it described as “another perspective” for Iranians who “remain hungry for information about the United States.” Wendy Sherman, the undersecretary for political affairs, said, “This initiative is designed to enhance our outreach to the Iranian people, notwithstanding the lack of diplomatic ties between our two governments,” adding that “… we certainly want to increase the number of students who are coming here [with this effort].”

“This website is not a formal diplomatic mission, nor does it represent or describe a real U.S. embassy accredited to the Iranian government,” the State Department said in an introductory note. “But, in the absence of direct contact, it can work as a bridge between the American and Iranian people.” The State Department also operates a Farsi-language Twitter account.

On Tuesday, Algeria’s national assembly voted to continue the ban on the main Islamist party, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS). The vote will maintain the two decade old ban, as parliamentarians debated proposals for a new electoral law. The FIS came out on top of the 1991 elections, and was banned in 1992 leading to a bloody civil war. Al-Arabiya notes that “while not singling out the FIS, Tuesday’s vote upheld a ban on any person responsible for the exploitation of religion having led to the national tragedy (civil war) from founding a party or participating in its creation.”

Meanwhile, current President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika was nominated by the the Algerian National Liberation Front (NFL) to run for a fourth term as President. Bouteflika is set to enact reforms to the constitution and grant parliament more power after he “announced a series of political reforms on 15 April in response to a rising political movement in Algeria – part of the ongoing ‘Arab Spring’ – that called for his resignation.”

In a speech to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Secretary of States Hillary Clinton called on Islamist parties that appeared to make significant inroads in Egypt’s first round of elections last week to “embrace democratic norms and rules” by creating a government that respects the full range of human rights. ”We therefore expect all democratic actors and elected officials to uphold universal human rights, including women’s rights, to allow free religious practice, to promote tolerance and good relations among communities of different faiths, and to support peaceful relations with their neighbors,” Clinton stated. Additionally, Secretary Clinton urged “the Egyptian authorities to ensure that free and fair voting continues through next election rounds and to adhere to their commitments to move toward a new civilian government.”

Additionally, an Associated Press article discusses how the Salafi political parties succeeded in Egypt’s elections, crediting “years of grassroots organizing throughout the country, which gave them a ready-made network of support when they entered politics,” as well as regular TV appearances by party leaders.

Al Jazeera English reported on Tuesday that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) will grant Prime Minister Kamal el-Ganzouri extra powers through a constitutional amendment. Ganzouri stated that the SCAF “would issue a decree within hours to hand him presidential powers except those concerning the judiciary and armed forces.” This comes as Ganzouri stated that a new government would be sworn in by Wednesday, but did not announce the names of any cabinet members. He further added that he would not use violence against demonstrators saying “I will not accept any violence against Egyptian people.”

As Egyptian go to the polls for the run-off elections, Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Badie assured Egyptians that the Brotherhood would work in a coalition if the party wins parliamentary elections. Badie stated “we will not rule Egypt alone. Parliament will include all the colors of the rainbow that must agree on one direction, one goal.” However, some Egyptians are concerned over a political stalemate between the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis as they compete for votes in the run-off. Al-Arabiya noted that “both the Salafis and the Brotherhood are sounding lukewarm on the chances of forming a dominant Islamist bloc if they repeat their early success in subsequent voting rounds ending on Jan. 11.”

On Monday, the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosted an event entitled “After the BICI Report: What Next for Bahrain?” Matthew Duss, director of Middle East Progress at the Center for American Progress, moderated the discussion. The panel featured Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR); Brian Dooley, director of Human Rights First; Andrew Exum, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security; and Toby Jones, assistant professor of history at Rutgers University.

For full event notes, continue reading. Or, click here for the PDF.

Read more…

Violence continues to escalate in Yemen, as Yemeni security forces fired upon demonstrators in Taiz, killing one woman and wounding several others. Protests have sprung up across Yemen over a clause in the GCC brokered transition deal granting former President Ali Abdullah Saleh immunity. The outbreak of violence in Yemen threatens to derail the transition plan, and some “antigovernment activists wondered whether the new violence represented an attempt by Mr. Saleh, facing the surest sign that his power was fading, to undermine the agreement,” as the government have met demonstrators with brutal force.

Amidst the violence Yemeni Prime Minister Mohammed Basindwa told Reuters that an interim government would be formed in the next 48 hours, as he said last week “the opposition’s commitment to the power transfer depended on ending the bloodshed in Taiz.” Ravina Shamdasani, a spokeswoman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, condemned the violence in Yemen, and said in a statement “the continued use of disproportionate force by part of the government security forces, despite commitments made to investigate serious human rights violations, is extremely disappointing…The killings must stop immediately and we urge all sides to halt the use of violent force.”

State Department Spokesman Mark Toner announced that Ambassador Robert Ford will return to Syria. Toner’s official statement says that Ford “will continue the work he was doing previously; namely, delivering the United States’ message to the people of Syria; providing reliable reporting on the situation on the ground; and engaging with the full spectrum of Syrian society on how to end the bloodshed and achieve a peaceful political transition. We believe his presence in the country is among the most effective ways to send the message that the United States stands with the people of Syria.” Ford was recalled from his post in Damascus in October amid escalating violence and intimidation targeted at the ambassador.

The announcement of Ford’s return came as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with leaders of the Syrian National Council in Geneva. Tuesday’s meeting was the second time Clinton has met with Syrian opposition actors since the administration called for President Bashar al-Assad to resign in August. Associated Press reports that “Clinton told a group of seven Syrian pro-reform activists that she wanted to hear their plans to establish a new democratic government if they are successful in prying President Bashar Assad and his regime from power. Her invitation was a step short of endorsement, but a clear sign the US wants to work closely with those who might assume leadership roles.”