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In South Australia: ALP stronghold continues


Finding No. 4128 - January 19, 2007

During November — December, primary support for the South Australian ALP Government increased 2.5% to 55.5% — 10.3% above their March 2006 election result of 45.2%. Support for the Liberal Party was down 3.5% to 27%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2006 South Australian election, the ALP is 65% (up 3%); Liberal 35% (down 3%).

If a South Australian State Election were held in November — December, the ALP would have won easily.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 4% (down 1%), Family First 4% (up 0.5%), the Australian Democrats 3% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“During November — December, the South Australian Labor Party extended its already large lead over the Liberal Opposition. If a South Australian State Election were held in November — December, the ALP would have won easily.”

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP 86% cf. Lib. 14%), One Nation (ALP 77% cf. Lib. 23%), Family First (ALP 53.5% cf. Lib. 46.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP 66% cf. Lib. 34%) favoured the ALP State Government, while preferences of Australian Democrats supporters favoured the L-NP Opposition (Lib. 63% cf. ALP 37%).

This Morgan Poll on South Australian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 470 electors throughout South Australia on the weekends of November and December.

Electors were asked: “If a State Election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed, 4% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE ALP Liberal Aust.
Dem.#
Family
First#^
The
Greens#
One
Nation#
Ind./
Others#*
  % % % % % % %
Election February 9, 2002 36.3 40 7.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 8.8
Election March 18, 2006 45.2 34 2.9 5.9 6.5 0.3 5.2
 
May - June 2003 52 32 4 2 5 1 4.5
July - August 2003 48 30 7 2 6 0.5 6.5
September - October 2003 47 33 6 1.5 4 1.5 7
November - December 2003 45 34.5 7 1 6.5 1 5
January - February 2004 53 32.5 3.5 2 4 1.5 3.5
March - April  2004 49.5 32.5 3.5 2 7.5 0.5 4.5
May - June 2004 51 32.5 4.5 1.5 4.5 2 4
July - August 2004 53 33 3.5 1.5 6 0.5 2.5
September - October 2004 53.5 33 3 4 3.5 0.5 2.5
November - December 2004 50.5 36 2 4 4 0.5 3
January - February 2005 45 38.5 4 4 5.5 0.5 2.5
March - April 2005 44.5 38 4 4 3.5 1 5
May - June 2005 54 33 1 4 4 0.5 3.5
July - August 2005 53 32 3 4 3.5 1 3.5
September - October 2005 50 33 3.5 3.5 4.5 0.5 5
November - December 2005 49 32 4 5.5 4 1 4.5
January - February 2006 50.5 33 3 3.5 4.5 0.5 5
February — March 11/12 2006 50.5 31 3.5 3 6 0.5 5.5
  • Before election announcement
50.5 31.5 5 3.5 4 - 5.5
  • After election announcement
50.5 30.5 2 2 8 0.5 6.5
March - April 2006 50 26.5 3 4 7 0.5 9
May - June 2006 48 31.5 2.5 4 4.5 - 9.5
July - August 2006 51.5 27.5 2 4 5.5 0.5 9
September — October 2006 53 30.5 2 3.5 5 0.5 5.5
November - December 2006 55.5 27 3 4 4 0.5 6
* Includes votes for the National Party
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ Family First was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE


  ALP Liberal    
  % %    
Election February 9, 2002 49.1 50.9    
Election March 18, 2006 56.8 43.2    
MORGAN POLL Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2002 election
  ALP Liberal ALP Liberal
  % % % %
July - August 2003 60 40 60 40
September - October 2003 59 41 58 42
November - December 2003 58 42 56 44
January - February 2004 62 38 61 39
March - April  2004 61.5 38.5 59 41
May - June 2004 62.5 37.5 60 40
July - August 2004 63 37 60.5 39.5
September - October 2004 61 39 61 39
November - December 2004 59.5 40.5 58 42
January - February 2005 54 46 54 46
March - April 2005 53.5 46.5 54 46
May - June 2005 62 38 61 39
July - August 2005 62 38 60.5 39.5
September - October 2005 62.5 37.5 59.5 40.5
November - December 2005 60.5 39.5 59.5 40.5
January - February 2006 60.5 39.5 59.5 40.5
February — March 11/12 2006 61.5 38.5 61 39
  • Before election announcement
61.5 38.5 60 40
  • After election announcement
61.5 38.5 61 39
March - April 2006 63.5 36.5 62 38
May - June 2006 58.5 41.5 59 41
July - August 2006 64.5 35.5 63 37
September — October 2006 53.5 46.5 62 38
November - December 2006 66 34 65 35

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES

  May - Jun 2006 Jul - Aug 2006 Sep - Oct 2006 Nov - Dec 2006
MORGAN POLL ALP Lib. ALP Lib. ALP Lib. ALP Lib.
  % % % % % % % %
Australian Democrats# 53 47 66 34 66.5 33.5 37 63
Family First# 21.5 78.5 36 64 38 62 53.5 46.5
The Greens # 77 23 100 - 80.5 19.5 86 14
One Nation # - - 41.5 58.5 65.5 34.5 77 23
Independent/Other # 52 48 58.5 41.5 70.5 29.5 66 34
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.


Finding No. 4128 is taken from Computer Report No. 2168


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