With snow flurries in the air at times, it was a pretty wintry day around here. The southern periphery of the region even got some snow accumulation (but it will melt fast). Today’s highs ranging from near 40 to the mid-40s are a good 5-10 degrees below average, and we’ve got more chill to go through tomorrow before a warm-up into midweek.

Through Tonight: We’ll continue with some passing flurries and snow showers through about sunset, but nothing of note. The storm system that passed to the south helps draw in a little more cold air into an already chilled air mass. Combine that with mostly clear skies and light winds, and we’ve got the coldest night in a while with lows ranging from the low 20s to near 30. It could be the first time National has made it to freezing since February 21!

Tomorrow (Tuesday): It’s a cold start to the day, and we finish with below average temperatures as well, but other than that it’s not too bad. Plan on partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-40s to near 50. Winds are light enough not to be much of a problem.

See Jason Samenow’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter . For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Snow totals to south: This morning’s clipper produced some impressive snow totals, as close by as 60-100 miles to our south. As many as 10” fell in western Orange county around Barboursville, and 4-6” fell in the vicinity of Charlottesville. Even as close as Fredericksburg, a couple inches fell and 1” fell in parts of St. Mary’s county. See snowfall map.

A school bus is lodged in a home where it came to rest after being tossed by Friday's tornado in Henryville, Ind., Monday, March 5, 2012. ) (Nam Y. Huh - AP) The March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak, which ravaged the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and parts of the South, will go down in the record books as one of the worst, if not the worst, March tornado events on record.

And, as if to add insult to injury, several inches of snow fell over southern Indiana and Kentucky Sunday night, challenging the clean-up effort.

Link: Slide show of snow-covered tornado debris

A lot has been written about Friday’s outbreak. Here’s a guide to some of the most significant information.

How many tornadoes touched down and how strong were they?

NOAA’s current count of confirmed twisters is 45 and will surely rise as storm surveys are completed.

Here is the curent breakdown by state:

AL-7 GA-5 IN-3 KY-9 MS-1 OH-6 NC-2 SC-1 TN-8 VA-1 WV-2

Washington, D.C.’s top 20 warmest winters and the summer average to follow. The red line is the current summer average and the blue line is the current winter average. As we now know, meteorological winter (December through February) 2011-12 finished as the third warmest on record here in Washington, D.C.. Thinking back, warmth seems all too common around here, especially when one considers the last two summers were the hottest two on record.

The fourth warmest February on record to close our toasty winter can’t be a good omen going into the warm season, can it?

Radar image as of 10:15 a.m. Heavy snow is indicated by the lightest green shade. (Wunderground.com) As light snow and flurries - of a conversational nature - fly around parts of the D.C. metro area, a narrow band of heavy snow has set up from just west of Charlottesville to just south of Fredericksburg. A winter storm warning for 4-6” of snow has been posted for that region through 1 p.m. today.

Snow totals in Albemarle county, which includes Charlottesville, already range from 4-6” according to reports from Twitter and Facebook followers. Snow should taper off there in the next hour.

Link: Snow totals from National Weather Service

Amounts are less to the east in Orange and Spotsylvania county, but up to 1-3” more could fall before the band shifts east this afternoon. Farther east, a couple inches of snow are possible in Virginia’s northern neck into southern Charles and St. Mary’s county, where a winter weather advisory is in effect.

10:00 a.m. update: As a few flakes have been spotted as north as Leesburg, Alexandria, and Arlington, heavy snow is a mere 60-100 miles south of the metro area. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning in a band from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg for 4-6” of snow through earlier this afternoon! 1-4” (northeast to southwest) have already fallen in that area.

9:30 a.m. update: Light snow and flurries are trying to move into the immediate metro area but evaporating in the dry air. Flurries have been seen as far north as Fairfax City and near Tysons Corner. But, generally, the steady snow is south of Fairfax county. Many areas in Prince William county are seeing snow accumulate on grassy areas, including around Manassas. Farther south, 2”+ have accumulated in Charlottesville (with more west towards Waynesboro).

While the immediate D.C. area could get into some light snow or flurries later this morning, it looks Prince William and Fauquier counties will represent the northern edge of where a dusting or more occurs (mainly on the grass). The 1” line will probably be near Fredericksburg, with conditions deteriorating to its south (including accumulation on roads).

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A few flakes may put a smile on the face of this snow lover, but otherwise just a cold and gray day
 
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Today: Chance of snow and rain showers. Mid-40s. | Tonight: Clearing and cold. 24-30. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. 45-50. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

Some conversational snowflakes may be in the air today, but the best chance of a dusting or better is south of Fredericksburg. The first couple days this week have a wintry feel, but warmer weather springs back for Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps some rain showers Friday before what *should* be a pretty decent weather weekend.

Snow Potential Index: 4 (↑) - Best chance of a dusting is from Fredericksburg south, but we're close enough to edge to watch closely.

 

The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter

 

Today (Monday): A weak clipper slides by to our south. The metro region falls near the northern edge of some light precipitation - so we may see some snow showers in the morning. Any precipitation in the afternoon may transition to rain with temperatures rising to 40 or higher (but lower where/when it’s precipitating). Chance of precipitation varies from 30-40% in the northern suburbs to 60-70% towards Fredericksburg. The most likely time for any precipitation is between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Skies clear and it’s quite chilly. With a light wind blowing in from the north (at 10 mph), temperatures fall to near 30 downtown with mid-20s in the colder suburbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the outlook through the weekend...