daveberta.ca – Alberta politics blog

A Sun News Network commissioned poll looks good for the Wildrose Party and bad for the Progressive Conservatives.

Global leaders were shocked yesterday when a new poll commissioned by QMI-Sun News Media showed Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party has made significant headwaters against the governing Progressive Conservatives.

There are serious questions being raised about the results of this poll, which make me question the results. For example, the regional breakdown of party support includes only 81 respondents surveyed from southern Alberta, which results in an unreliably high 11% margin of error (via @calgarygrit). The optimistic results for the Wildrose Party, which already receives daily enthusiastic editorial support from right-wing Sun media, leads me to take with a grain of salt any political polling produced by this media network.

Most legitimate polls, including those conduced by Leger Marketing and Environics, have shown the Tories with 45%-55% support province-wide and the three main opposition parties – Wildrose, NDP, and Liberals – grouped together in the mid-teens. A number of recent polls, including one conducted by Return on Insight, have produced results suggesting that the Wildrose Party has begun to break from the pack of opposition parties, which is not unbelievable at this point.

Update: Dan Arnold and David Climenhaga have shared their views on these polls.

Nervous Tories

Recent heavy-handed actions by Premier Alison Redford suggest that the establishment of the 41-year governing party is beginning to worry about their electoral fortunes.

The release of negative radio ads (which were tame in my mind) suggests that the Tories are feeling pressure to hit back at harsh criticism by the Wildrose Party about new laws limiting blood alcohol levels to 0.05%.

Suspending all Legislative and Government committee pay for PC MLAs was a reaction to wide-spread criticism of an absent committee. The drastic move may also have been a shot across the bow of unhappy PC backbench MLAs and former cabinet ministers, who some insiders say have been sowing discontent towards their party’s new direction. The departure of former Finance Minister Lloyd Snelgrove, who now sits as an Independent MLA and will not be seeking re-election, is one example of the tensions between Premier Redford and loyalists of the former Premier.

It is not difficult to imagine some Tories expressing discomfort with Premier Redford’s move to discipline her former leadership competitor Gary Mar. The majority of the current PC MLAs supported Mr. Mar’s leadership bid in 2011.

The PCs are deliberately focusing their attacks on their largest perceived threat, the Wildrose Party, ignoring the current official opposition Liberals. Premier Redford’s appeal to political moderates has led to more than a few prominent Liberal supporters migrating to the PC Party, including two-term Lethbridge-East MLA Bridget Pastoor who crossed the floor to the PCs in November 2011. As Alberta’s dominant big tent political party, the Tories will naturally benefit from neutralizing any potential centrist opposition while trying to push the other opposition parties to the ideological fringes.

Promise kept? 

Email inboxes across the province yesterday were treated a to the “bing” signalling a new PC Party online newsletter touting Premier Redford’s fulfilled promise to hold a “Full judicial inquiry into queue jumping.” Of course, the decision to allow the Health Quality Council of Alberta (HQCA), led by a retired judge, to investigate allegations of queue jumping is a pretty loose interpretation of an actual “Full judicial inquiry”.

To quote Premier Redford’s leadership campaign email newsletter from June 14, 2011 (ASCENT: Alison Redford’s Campaign Newsletter Issue 7):

“Albertans want answers regarding the allegations of queue jumping by wealthy and well-connected people. Alison also wants answers. This week, she became the first candidate to call for a full judicial inquiry into queue-jumping.”

Created in 2002 as a result of the Report of the Premier’s Advisory Council on Health, the mandate of the HQCA is to “promote patient safety and health service quality.” Of course, resistance by politicians to holding a real judicial inquiry is not surprising. Real judicial inquiries are uncontrollable and politically dangerous, just ask former Prime Minister Paul Martin how his judicial inquiry worked out for him.

Alberta MLA's at a meeting of the Privileges and Elections Committee.

More information has been relvealed about controversial $1,000 monthly payments made to Alberta MLA’s for being members of a committee that has not met for three years. Retiring Edmonton-Gold Bar Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald revealed late last week that Premier Alison Redford was briefly a member of the committee while she served as Minister of Justice & Attorney General (though Premier Redford has no recollection). It was also revealed that Liberal leader Raj Sherman sat on the committee and collected the extra pay while he was a Progressive Conservative MLA.

Alberta MLA’s are allowed to collect extra pay for a maximum of $3,500. Some opposition MLA’s, like Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MLA Rachel Notley, sit on four or five committees (and are only paid for three). Premier Redford told the Edmonton Sun that it would be up to individual MLA’s to choose whether they would return the extra pay.

Transcript of a meeting of the Privileges and Elections Committee from Monday, November 17, 2008 includes some interesting comments about the committee’s work by a three MLA’s who found themselves sitting in different political positions four years ago. Two-term Liberal MLA Bridget Pastoor (now a PC MLA) questioned the need for the committee, five-term PC MLA Heather Forsyth (now a Wildrose Party MLA) defended the committee’s work, and rookie-PC MLA Dr. Sherman (now leader of the Liberal Party) expressed honour for being invited to join the committee.

Ms Pastoor: I think I just want to get on the record with a couple of comments. This committee hadn’t met for almost 20 years, and now we’ve met two or three times and probably won’t meet again. I just feel that a lot of the work that we did – and I’m not saying that it’s not good – in committee really was probably the responsibility of the two House leaders. Prior to this, I think both our House leaders and the leader of the third party as a part of that really did a fine job, so I’m still not exactly sure why we had the large meeting when, in fact, it was the responsibility of the House leaders.

…

Mrs. Forsyth: Just a comment to Bridget. I’ve been here since 1993, and this committee has been around, and I always questioned what it did. I felt the whole process very worth while. I liked the idea of the people who put together the new standing orders, et cetera, giving us, even though we didn’t win some of the battles, like I did, the opportunity to debate it and say why we support it. For example, I’ll go back. I thought it would be a good idea to have sessions in the morning. I got overwhelmingly defeated on that particular motion, but for me it was an extremely valuable process to be able to say that I was part of a committee that had the opportunity after 20 years to be able to set new rules in what’s going to be the future, hopefully for – I’m not going to say 20 years because I don’t assume that that’s going to happen. I mean, we all age.

People change. Things change.

….

Dr. Sherman: Thank you, Mr. Chair. As a new member it’s a good opportunity for the new members to learn, to see how the process works, and to sit across the table from our other colleagues. This is part of us working together. It’s been an honour for me to be here. Thank you, Mr. Chair. You’ve done a good job.

Gary Mar

Premier Alison Redford has ordered former cabinet minister Gary Mar, now the Government of Alberta’s representative in Asia, to take an unpaid leave of absence during an ethics investigation of a recent fundraiser held in Edmonton. Mr. Mar, who placed second in the 2011 PC leadership, hosted a fundraiser to help pay off his campaign debt, which exceeds $226,000.

CBC is reporting that one version of an invitation for the fundraiser mentioned Mr. Mar’s position in Asia and implied that ticket-holders would learn how to do business in Hong Kong.

PC Party releases audited leadership campaign financials
Financial statements from five of the six Progressive Conservative leadership campaigns who participated in the 2011 contest have been published on that party’s website. Former MLA Rick Orman, who now leads a government northern economic strategy group, is the only candidate who’s campaign had not submitted his records at the time the PC Party posted them online yesterday.

Audited documents
Doug Griffiths
Doug Horner
Gary Mar
Ted Morton
Alison Redford

Much of the financial contributions information in these audited documents is already known, as the candidates released some of their donation records during the course of the leadership campaign. It is sometimes interesting to see which businesses and lobby groups contribute to all campaigns, and the broad number of groups that participate in the governing party’s leadership campaigns.

Many of Alberta’s well-known corporations, like Telus and TransAlta, donated large sums of money to each candidate. Demonstrating just how wide the big blue tent is in Alberta, the Merit Contractors Association, an association of anti-union construction industry employers, is listed as having donated more than $71,000 to various leadership candidates, while Local 488 of the United Association of Plumbers & Pipefitters donated $5,000 each to the campaigns of the top three placing candidates.

These audited documents also gives Albertans a closer look at the financial outcomes and expenses of the campaigns.

The campaign of second place Mr. Mar reported $2,687,155 in expenditures and a $262,099 deficit when the campaign period ended. This is a monumental amount of money and may be the first time that an unsuccessful Canadian provincial party leadership candidate has spent this much. Having watched Mr. Mar’s campaign, which included all the bells and whistles (from an Obama-style campaign bus to a mock cooking show), I am not shocked to discover that the expenses piled up. As noted at the beginning of this post, Mr. Mar is still trying to pay off his campaign debt.

Doug Griffiths‘ campaign spent $164,400 and retained a surplus of $10,068. The financial report notes that surplus funds will be used to create a post-secondary bursary for residents in Mr. Griffiths’ Battle River-Wainwright constituency.

Ted Morton‘s campaign reported $977,238 in expenses and $115,732 revenue in excess of expenditures. The surplus funds will be donated to the Glenbow Ranch Foundation and the University of Calgary Political Science department.

The campaign of now-Deputy Premier Doug Horner recorded $1,231,383 in expenses and recorded an $8,059 surplus. His financial disclosure form does not make note of where the surplus funds were allocated.

Premier Redford’s campaign spent $1,290,575 and was left with a $20,846 surplus when the campaign ended. The statement does not indicate what was done with the surplus funds.

Audited statements from three of the campaigns provided a breakdown in expenditures (Redford, Mar, and Morton). Mr. Morton and Premier Redford’s documents breakdown expenditures into a number of identifiable categories, while the majority of Mr. Mar’s expenses are lumped into the vague and all-encompassing “advertising and other campaign expenses” category.

Alison Redford PC leadership campaign 2011, Expenses

Gary Mar PC leadership campaign 2011, Expenses

Ted Morton PC leadership campaign 2011, Expenses

I have updated the list of Alberta election candidates to include some of the following individuals:

Farouk Adatia and Premier Alison Redford

Calgary-Shaw: Following a surprising announcement by three-term PC MLA Cindy Ady that she would not seek re-election, lawyer Farouk Adatia has been appointed to replace her at the Progressive Conservative candidate. Mr. Adatia was the Chief Financial Officer for Premier Alison Redford‘s leadership campaign in 2011, and he was an unsuccessful candidate in the hotly contested PC nomination in Calgary-Hawkwood earlier this year. Following the disqualification of former Calgary-McCall MLA Shiraz Shariff as the PC candidate in Calgary-West, it was speculated that Mr. Adatia might be appointed to run as a candidate there.

Calgary-Cross: Susan Stratton will represent the Evergreen Party in this east Calgary constituency. Ms. Stratton ran in this constituency in the 2008 election under the Green Party banner, earning 395 votes. In 2004, she ran for the Green Party in Calgary-North Hill, placing third and earning 1,261 votes.

Jennifer Ketsa

Calgary-Elbow: Businessman Greg Clark has been nominated as the Alberta Party‘s candidate in the constituency represented by Premier Redford.

Edmonton-Ellerslie: As reported in Mark Lisac‘s Insight Into Government newsletter, the Liberal Party is expected to announce Jennifer Ketsa (confirmed on Twitter) as their candidate after previously nominated candidate Bharat Agnihotri stepped down. Mr. Agnihotri served as MLA for this constituency from 2004 until 2008.

Edmonton-Manning: Past mayoral candidate Daryl Bonar appears to have fallen off the list of Wildrose Party candidates. Mr. Bonar placed third in Edmonton’s 2010 mayoral election and was nominated as a Wildrose candidate in 2011.

Neil Mather

Edmonton-Meadowlark: Lawyer and past federal Liberal candidate Neil Mather will run in this west Edmonton constituency under the Alberta Party banner. In the 2004 election, Mr. Mather earned 12,912 in the Edmonton-Spruce Grove riding, which includes parts of Meadowlark. The constituency is currently represented by Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman, who was elected under the PC banner in 2008.

Edmonton-Rutherford: David Tonner, an organizing member of The Zeitgeist Movement, has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate.

Lacombe-Ponoka: Rancher and agricultural policy specialist Tony Jeglum has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.

St. Albert: Despite initial problems finding a candidate, social worker Kim Bugeaud has been chosen to run for the Liberals in St. Albert. Ms. Bugeaud served as a trustee on the St. Albert Protestant School Board from 1995 to 1998.

Alberta's culture of negative attack ads began with this nasty Social Credit Party newspaper ad during the 1971 election.

Alberta’s political twitterati were atwitter yesterday after a Progressive Conservative radio advertisement was leaked to the Calgary Herald. The ad defend the new law passed by Premier Alison Redford‘s government that will lower a driver’s legal blood alcohol level from 0.08 to 0.05 and respond to the constant, and sometimes creative, criticism of the new law by Danielle Smith and her Wildrose Party.

Judging by the amount of earned media the Tories have already received about the yet-to-be-aired ad, the ad may have already paid for itself.

Unlike the negative ads saturating the airwaves in the Republican Party presidential nomination race south of the border, this Tory radio ad is very, very tame. The ads point out a clear difference between the two parties on a real policy issue that both parties believe they have something to gain from.

Albertans should expect high levels of sensationalism from mainstream political pundits in over the course of the next week. How many times can we expect the phrase “the gloves off” to be used in the next few days? Lots.

The Tory Party’s shift in tactics is important to note. Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid points out on his blog that the ad marks an attitude change in a PC Party that would typically dismiss the opposition (and romp to another election victory).

Normally invulnerable, the Tories may be worried that accusations and evidence of intimidation and bad governance may be starting to stick. The growing pile of Tory political miscalculations and mistakes are starting to pile up with an election call expected by the end of March.

Some of the latest Tory missteps include Dunvegan-Central Peace MLA Hector Goudreau’s threatening letter to school board officials in his constituency, the war of words between Municipal Affairs Minister Doug Griffiths and Alberta Urban Municipalities Association President Linda Sloan, and the ensuing tweet of Premier Redford’s now-former Chief of Staff Stephen Carter. Along with Elections Alberta announcing an investigation into allegations of illegal political donations.

Yesterday, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation released information showing that 21 MLAs, mostly Tories, are being paid $1000 per month for being members of a legislative committee that has not met in over three years. Lacombe-Ponoka PC MLA Ray Prins has been collecting $18,000 a year for being the chair of the committee.

Bonnyville-Cold Lake PC MLA Genia Leskiw pleaded ignorance when asked about the extra money she was collecting from the committee, telling the CBC that “I don’t even look at my paycheque.”

Maybe the Tories should be worried.

Alberta's politicians are preparing for the next election.

Less than 48 hours after the Progressive Conservatives filled their slate of 87 candidates, three-term Calgary-Shaw MLA Cindy Ady announced on her website that she will not be seeking re-election. Ms. Ady served as Tourism minister from 2008 until 2011. Here is the message she posted:

For the past decade, I have had the honour and privilege to serve as a Member of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta and to make a difference in the lives of Albertans. I have decided it is time to transition and explore new opportunities. As such, I will not be running in the upcoming provincial election.

I wish to thank the constituents of Calgary-Shaw for their inspiration and energy. Their hopes, vision, and determination have led to remarkable growth in our community. In just 10 short years, we have built schools, new healthcare facilities and better transportation systems that will shape the lives of Calgarians for years to come.

I am well aware that there is more work to be done. The hospital project and the Ring Road are two good examples. Rest assured that I will work closely with the future MLA of Calgary-Shaw to ensure a smooth and effective transition.

I would like to express my appreciation for the excellent leadership and counsel I have received from Premier Redford and my colleagues during my time as MLA. The support provided to me and my family, and the opportunities to serve the people of this province have been life changing.

Hector Goudreau demoted, not running for re-election?

Dunvegan-Central Peace PC MLA Hector Goudreau has resigned as chairman of the Cabinet Policy Committee for Community Development after defending himself from allegations he bullied school board officials in his constituency. CTV News is reporting that Mr. Goudreau has also decided against seeking re-election, though other news outlets have not reported this.

Mental health funding increased

In a pre-election announcement yesterday morning, Health & Wellness Minister Fred Horne told the media that the government has allocated an additional $15 million towards much needed renovations and expansion of services at Alberta Hospital Edmonton. The hospital’s future looked bleak only a few years ago when then-CEO of Alberta Health Services Stephen Duckett canceled previous plans for upgrades, claiming that the site buildings were too old and decrepit.

Sherman accuses government of intimidating U of A

Meanwhile, Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman is accusing the provincial government of intimating the University of Alberta‘s interim Dean of Medicine & Dentistry Verna Yiu. Dr. Sherman tweeted that he could not understand why the interim Dean cancelled his grand rounds and suggested that the decision was caused by “the intimidating arm of the #pcaa.”

Raj Sherman tweets 2012/03/05

I have updated the list of candidates standing in Alberta’s 2012 election. Here are some of the recent additions to the list:

Ken Hughes

Calgary-West: Ken Hughes defeated formerly nominated candidate Shiraz Shariff in the second Progressive Conservative nomination contest in this constituency. Former MLA Mr. Shariff was disqualified as after winning the first nomination meeting in February after questions of voting irregularities arose. Mr. Hughes was the chairman of Alberta Health Services, a former Member of Parliament, and a close ally of Premier Alison Redford. Not surprisingly, Wildrose Party candidate Andrew Constantinidis believes Mr. Hughes is a bad choice (Mr. Constantinidis’ website mentions nothing of his role as the past riding president to sleepy Conservative MP Rob Anders).

Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock: Leslie Penny is expected to seek the Liberal Party nomination. Ms. Penny was her party’s candidate in the 2008 election, where she placed second with 1,804 votes.

Hubert Rodden

Bonnyville-Cold Lake: Former Cold Lake City Councillor Hubert Rodden is the nominated Liberal Party candidate. Mr. Rodden was first elected to council in 2007 and was defeated in 2010.

Calgary-Currie: Dean Halstead has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate.

Calgary-Klein: Roger Gagne has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate.

Calgary-Varsity: Carl Svoboda has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate. Justin Anderson, brother of MLA Rob Anderson, is no longer the Wildrose Party candidate. Rob Solinger.

Edmonton-Calder: Alex Bosse has been nominated as the Liberal Party candidate.

Edmonton-Ellerlsie: Completing the slate of 87 NDP candidates is Rod Loyola, who was nominated as the NDP in this south east Edmonton constituency. Mr. Loyola replaces previously nominated candidate Tina Jardine, who withdrew her candidacy for health reasons.

Dari Lynn

Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood: Herbal practitioner Dari Lynn has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate.

Lethbridge-East: Rob Miyashiro defeated Alderman Jeff Carlson to win the Liberal Party nomination. Mr. Miyashiro will face Liberal-turned-PC MLA Bridget Pastoor in the upcoming election. After serving two-term as a Liberal MLA, Ms. Pastoor crossed the floor to join the PCs in October 2011.

Vermilion-Lloydminster: Corina Ganton is the nominated Liberal Party candidate in this east central Alberta constituency. Ms. Ganton works for the Liberal Party and was the Federal Liberal candidate in Peace River during the 2011 election.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose: Printing press operator Mike Donnelly has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate in this central Alberta constituency.

Women make up the majority of Alberta’s population, but they rarely come even close to being the majority in electoral politics.

Alberta’s 2012 election could be notable for many reasons, two of those reasons being that it will be the first where both the incumbent Premier, Alison Redford, and the leader of the party polling in second place, Danielle Smith, are women.

The two other main political parties have had women lead them in past elections (Pam Barrett led the NDP during the 1997 election and Nancy MacBeth led the Liberals in 2001). Former Edmonton school trustee Sue Huff led the Alberta Party as acting-leader until May 2011.

Aside from the 100% increase of women party leaders since the last election, there also appears to be an increase in the number of women Alberta’s political parties are nominating as candidates.

The NDP has so far nominated the most woman candidates of the political parties contesting the 2012 election. By my count, the NDP has chosen 39 women out of 87 candidates (45%). This is a boost for the NDP from the 2008 election, when that party nominated 32 women out of 83 candidates (38%).

Also on the increase is the Progressive Conservatives, which has chosen 23 women out of the 86 candidates nominated to run in the next election (27%). All the contestants in the one remaining nomination contest in Calgary-West are men. This is a seven percent increase for the PCs from the last election when only 17 out of the 83 candidates were women (20%). The PCs have a long way to go before they even approach a gender balance of candidates, but a seven percent increase does move them closer.

Despite their strong female leader, Wildrose candidates are predominantly men. By my count, only 11 of the 84 nominated Wildrose candidates are women (13%). This is a tiny increase from 2008, when only 6 of the 61 candidates standing for the Wildrose Alliance were women (10%).

The Liberal Party, with 42 candidates currently nominated, has chosen 7 women candidates (17%). I expect this number to increase as the Liberals add to their slate of candidates before the election. In 2008, the 22 women under the Liberal Party banner out of 82 candidates (25%).

The Alberta Party has nominated four women out of fourteen candidates (28%).

Number of women candidates by party
2011 Election
NDP: 39 out of 87 – 45%
PC: 23 out of 86 – 27%
Wildrose: 11 out of 85 – 13%
Liberal: 7 out of 42 – 17%
Alberta Party: 4 out of 14 – 28%

2008 Election
NDP: 32 out of 83 – 38%
Liberal: 22 out of 83 – 26%
PC: 17 out of 83 – 20%
Wildrose: 6 out of 61 – 10%

PC candidate Steven Young on the Edmonton Journal website.

Staff Sergeant Steven Young was the face of the Edmonton Police Service at a media conference held yesterday announcing the police service’s new advertising campaign.

Mr. Young also happens to be the nominated Progressive Conservative Party candidate in Edmonton-Riverview, a position that should make many Edmontonians question the wisdom of the police service communications department for allowing him to pose for photographers at the media conference.

Riverview has been represented by Liberal MLA Kevin Taft since 2001. With Dr. Taft not seeking re-election, Mr. Young is expected to be in a tough race with Liberal candidate Arif Khan.

Premier Alison Redford

Six is the number of pieces of legislation that Premier Alison Redford‘s Progressive Conservative government has introduced into Alberta’s Legislative Assembly during the Spring sitting that started in February.

Nineteen is the number of pieces of legislation passed by the PC government led by Premier Ed Stelmach during the 2011 Spring sitting of the Assembly.

The government’s light legislative agenda during the Spring sitting should be a surprise to Albertans, especially after the kerfuffle around the cancellation and delay of the 2011 Fall sitting. Perhaps explaining the lack of a long list of legislative items is that this sitting is expected to culminate with passage of the provincial budget and the dropping of the Writ, which some political watchers suspect may happen during the third or four week of March.

Along with a safe pre-election budget, the Tories legislative agenda includes items that posed difficult political challenges to the government under Premier Stelmach. The Results-based Budgeting Act is a response to criticisms from the Wildrose Party that the Tories have become bad fiscal managers. The new version of the Education Act is meant to ease the worries created by the Bill’s previous incarnation that school boards would be eliminated or have their powers greatly reduced.

Perhaps touching the most politically sensitive issue for the PCs is the Property Rights Advocate Act, which is meant to cool the flames of angry and well-organized landowners in rural Alberta who have loudly voiced their opposition to the construction of transmission lines and new powers that allow cabinet to expropriate private property. Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party has focused what I can only imagine are a wealth of resources and countless time on making property rights a defining wedge issue in some rural areas.

Promises kept?

Half-fullfilling a promise made during the PC leadership contest to hold an independent judicial inquiry into the health care system, Premier Redford’s support for a quasi-judicial inquiry with a narrower mandate has made some political watchers spitting mad. Opposition politicians, like Liberal leader Raj Sherman and Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson, have criticized the recent report as being “whitewash” and “an outrage.”

Being Alberta’s first Premier in a generation who can explain policy positions articulately (and in full sentences), it would not be surprising to see many voters looking past the misgivings and political maneuvering and decide that they would be comfortable with Premier Redford in office.

In the lead up to the Alberta’s 2012 election, I have identified fifteen constituencies across the province that could produce interesting contests and results when the election is called.

15 races to watch in Alberta's 2012 election.

1) Highwood
The Wildrose Party has staked their future in the success of leader Danielle Smith and I expect that party will pull out all the stops to ensure she is elected. The PCs have nominated newspaper editor John Barlow to replace retiring PC MLA George Groeneveld.

2) Edmonton-Meadowlark
This area has deep Liberal roots, having first elected MLA Grant Mitchell in 1986, but since 2001 it has become a swing-riding electing both Liberals and PCs. Currently held by former PC MLA and now Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman, the next vote will be a test of his personal popularity as he runs under his new party’s banner. He will face former PC MLA Bob Maskell, who served from 2001 until 2004.

3) Edmonton-Calder
Voters in this constituency are notorious swing-voters. No incumbent has been re-elected here since 1997. Current PC MLA Doug Elniski made a last minute announcement that he would not seek re-election, leaving former school trustee and newly nominated candidate Bev Esslinger not a lot of time to catch up. Former MLA David Eggen has been campaigning in Calder for the past three years and is expected to launch a well-organized campaign. Wildrose candidate Rich Neumann may play kingmaker if he is able to attract enough past PC voters.

4) Calgary-Glenmore
In 2009, outgoing Wildrose leader Paul Hinman narrowly won a hotly contested by-election that was seen as a referendum on then-Premier Ed Stelmach‘s popularity in Calgary (which was low). With new Premier Alison Redford representing the neighboring constituency, PC candidate Linda Johnson may receive a warmer reception at the doors. Throw into the mix former Mount Royal College instructor Craig Cheffins, who served as the Liberal MLA for Calgary-Elbow from 2007 to 2008, and the outcome of this race could be difficult to predict.

5) Edmonton-Glenora
Represented by both PC and Liberal MLAs over the past twenty years, this constituency could be a key battleground for five opposition parties in the next election. Former Liberal MLA Bruce Miller is challenging PC cabinet minister Heather Klimchuk, who unseated him by 136 votes in 2008. Rev. Miller is not the only challenger in this election. The Alberta Party is pinning their hopes on former school trustee Sue Huff, the NDP have nominated former MLA and leader Ray Martin, and the Wildrose have chosen past Mayoral candidate Don Koziak.

6) Calgary-Varsity
With the retirement of popular two-term Liberal MLA Harry Chase, the Liberals have nominated former carpenters’ union official Bruce Payne, who ran for that party’s leadership in 2011. The PCs have chosen former Nexen vice-president Donna Kennedy-Glans. The results of this race will be a critical indicator of whether the Liberals can hold on to, and build on, important gains made in Calgary during the past two elections.

7) Chestermere-Rockyview
Energy Minister Ted Morton will face off against former Global Calgary news anchor and Wildrose candidate Bruce McAllister. The Wildrose attacked Minister Morton’s credentials as a “fiscal mallard” while he was Finance Minister and by nominating Mr. McAllister they are showing that they will not give him a pass in the next election.

8 ) Airdrie
When first-term PC MLA Rob Anderson joined the Wildrose in 2010, he automatically became a target of his former party, who have nominated Alderman Kelly Hegg as their candidate. The Airdrie area has typically voted for the PCs, but voters in this region have been known to elect opposition candidates in the past (Western Canadian Concept MLA Gordon Kesler was elected in 1982 and Liberal MLA Don MacDonald was elected in 1992).

9) Cardston-Taber-Warner
After being unseated by Wildorse MLA Mr. Hinman in 2004, PC MLA Broyce Jacobs won a narrow victory in 2008. Fast forward to 2012, Mr. Jacobs has lost his party’s nomination to Pat Shimbashi and the Wildrose has nominated Sterling Deputy Mayor Gary Bikman. If the Wildrose are to pick up seats in the election, this will likely be one.

10) Edmonton-Rutherford
In a rematch of the closest race of the 2008 election, PC MLA Fred Horne will face former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. While 2008 a two-way contest, the 2012 contest is more interesting with the presence of community organizer and Alberta Party candidate Michael Walters and Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod.

11) Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
After winning four elections as this constituency’s PC candidate, late-blooming Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier will face Wood Buffalo deputy mayor Mike Allen in the upcoming vote. After decades as a municipal and provincial politician, this election may be more a test of Mr. Boutilier’s personal support than that of his new party.

12) Edmonton-Gold Bar
A Liberal Party stronghold since 1986, the retirement of MLA Hugh MacDonald and the redistribution of electoral boundaries south encompassing Tory-voting neighbourhoods may give second-time PC candidate David Dorward a boost. Liberal candidate Josipa Petrunic is a well-spoken and passionate partisan who hopes to hold the constituency for her party. The NDP have nominated Marlin Schmidt and hope to capitalize on local support for NDP MP Linda Duncan.

13) Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
A close contest in 2008 saw former PC MLA Tony Vandermeer defeat NDP MLA Ray Martin. In 2012, Mr. Vandermeer will face a strong challenge from NDP candidate Deron Bilous.

14) Lethbridge-West
After twenty years of close races, voters in this constituency have proven themselves to be deeply divided between the PCs and Liberals. This election, first-term PC MLA Greg Weadick and second-time Liberal candidate Bal Boora will be joined by NDP candidate Shannon Phillips, who has launched a spirited campaign, and Wildrose candidate Kevin Kinahan. Even if Mr. Weadick is re-elected, the real story may be who places second in this politically moderate southern Alberta constituency.

15) Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
After more than three decades in the Assembly, the departure of PC MLA Ken Kowalski has created a large void to fill in this constituency north of Edmonton. The PCs have nominated Westlock County Councillor Maureen Kubinec, who will face off against her main opponent Wildrose candidate Link Byfield. Mr. Byfield has been campaigning for more than a year and could make gains if he is able to tap into the base of social conservative voters in this constituency.

Sign supporting MLA Carl Benito on the corner of 34th Avenue and Mill Woods Road.

Signs supporting MLA Carl Benito on the corner of 34th Avenue and Mill Woods Road.

A reader of this blog spotted these two signs yesterday morning on the corner of 34th Avenue and Mill Woods Road in the constituency of Edmonton-Mill Woods.

Progressive Conservative MLA Carl Benito, who spent much of his first-term in office defending self-inflicted controversy, was defeated by Sohail Qadri in a tense battle for his party’s nomination. While most politicians in his position would quietly move out of the spotlight, are the sudden presence of these signs a signal that Mr. Benito’s name could show up on the ballot as an Independent candidate in the upcoming election?

The signs note that they are donated by “High Speed Printing,” which means that they were likely not paid for through constituency office funds.

While the opposition parties were hoping that Mr. Benito’s name would on the ballot as the PC candidate, a run as an Independent candidate could lead to interesting results. In 2008, Mr. Benito became the first PC MLA to be elected in this constituency since 1982. Voters in this constituency elected Liberal MLAs to represent them in the Assembly from 1993 until 2008.

Former Liberal MLA Weslyn Mather has been nominated to carry her party’s banner into the election, the New Democrats have chosen Alberta Union of Provincial Employees Vice-President Sandra Azocar, and Joanne Autio is the Wildrose candidate.