Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards After Party

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball
Posted on April, 30 at 10:09 am

Nels handed out some fantasy hardware the other day with the GMTR fantasy basketball awards ceremony So consider this post the after party.

If you read GMTR, then you are probably aware that we post recaps every day that cover the best and the worst of previous day’s worth of games. Every day we hand out the line of the night (the best fantasy line of the night according to the GMTR player rater), waiver wire line of the night (best fantasy line among players with less than 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues) and biggest loser (the worst fantasy line among those with more than 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues).

We also kept a record of the best and worst lines on every single day, so that we could look back and summarize the year. The results end up being a very rough estimate of player value, but more interestingly, it points out players who overachieved (even for brief stretches of time) and some who crashed and burned this year.

So let’s get this party started.

Most Lines of the Night during the 2011-12 Season: LeBron James – 7

Kevin Love – 6
Kevin Durant – 5
Stephen Curry – 5
Chris Paul – 4
Josh Smith – 4

Kevin Durant may be our fantasy MVP, but LeBron does have him beat in one quirky stat this year. On 7 of the 124 days this season, James had the best fantasy game of the day. That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise since he did finish the year ranked #2 on the GMTR player rater. Durant, who was our MVP and #1 ranked player on the year, came in tied for third with 5 lines of the night this season.

A much bigger shock is that Stephen Curry had the best fantasy line on 5 separate days despite being limited to 26 games this year. All of his top lines came between day 2 and day 56 of the season and four of them came in a three week span between days 32 and 56. Oh, what Curry could have done this year if he actually had real ankles…

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Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards Ceremony

Categorized as: Fantasy Basketball
Posted on April, 28 at 7:39 am

Good evening ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the annual Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards (The Rockies? The Gimmes? Other suggestions? Leave a comment!). While a normal awards show would being with some sort of red carpet special, I have simply substituted something you’ll find just as entertaining (above). The show would then carry on with some sort of musical number by the host, but since this is just a written article that will have to wait for our video podcast (Ed. note: There will be no video podcast).

So, with that out of the way, let’s get on with it.

Most Valuable Fantasy Player: The debate for who had a better fantasy season is pretty much the same as it was for who to take with the first pick at the beginning of the season. Obviously the choice comes down to LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Unlike the start of the season, though, we now have 66 games worth of data with which to evaluate the two. According to Give Me The Rock’s Player Rater, Kevin Durant was the best fantasy basketball player of the 2011-12 season. The Player Rater is designed for Head-to-Head leagues, but for this case, it seems the results are applicable to Rotisserie leagues as well. If you look across the stats, Durant makes up for the categories where he lagged LeBron – Assists and Steals – with ones where he beat him handily (twice as many threes; 8 percentage points higher from the line; nearly a half a block per game more). He’s reliable, durable and plays a difficult position to fill. I’m sure we’ll be back to the same debate come September and October, but for now, Durant is the Most Valuable Fantasy Player. (For what it’s worth, this decision was unanimous between the three authors here)

Not sure if he’s happy or constipated

All-NBA Fantasy First Team: If you take out Durant, the All-NBA Fantasy First Team falls nicely into place with LeBron at SF, Chris Paul, #3 on the season, at PG, followed by Kevin Love at #4 taking up the PF position. The Center position is a bit of a surprise, but at #5, according to the Player Rater is Al Jefferson. Jefferson was drafted an average of 13th, so clearly fantasy owners knew this would be a good year for him, but he came through better than I think anyone could have expected with over 19 points, nearly 10 rebounds, high percentages (including 77% from the line; very good for a big man), and a remarkably low 1.1 turnovers per game. Finally, at #6, we slot Dwyane Wade at the SG position. Even though he missed a lot more games than the five guys above him, he played enough games and racked up enough stats that he deserves a spot on the fantasy first team with them.

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Day 124 of 124: Anybody Home?

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, NBA Playoffs, San Antonio Spurs
Posted on April, 27 at 5:18 am

When it’s the morning after the last day of regular season basketball, and the stats aren’t loading, and everyone’s rested their main guys last night anyway, and I haven’t gotten together with Patrick and Erik for our End of Year Awards yet… all I’m left with is a playoff preview… If it’s interesting to me, hopefully it’ll be interesting to you too.

I’m going to these cutesy/clever nicknames for the conferences even though I don’t think they’re really applicable. Though I do believe that if the Bulls somehow make it to the Finals, they are capable of beating whoever comes out of the West. Perhaps more so than I think the East will still win if Miami makes it. That said, I still think Miami will make it. Oops… Spoiler Alert!

Beastern Conference

Bulls vs. 76ers

Yeah, I’m going to start with my home team, but they do have the overall best record (after the tie-break with San Antonio). Even with Derrick Rose still rounding back into form, the Bulls will take this one. I’m glad that Evan Turner wanted to play the Bulls instead of the Heat. If I were a lower seed, I’d probably rather play the Bulls too, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. Of course, as a Bulls fan, I was also hoping that they’d get to play Philly, because they’re an easier matchup than the Knicks. So, take that Evan Turner.

Bulls in 5.

Heat vs. Knicks

I’m really not sure if the Knicks even take one in this series. I’ll give it to them just based on Miami’s lack of mental toughness and their Center position. Tyson Chandler should dominate, but it won’t be enough.

Heat in 5

Pacers vs. Magic

Poor Magic. I feel bad for the rest of the guys on the team to have to deal with Dwight’s drama all season and then lose him two weeks before the playoffs. Glen Davis says he’s going to play, and who would have ever thought that saying something like that would carry such weight? Still…

Pacers in 5.

Celtics vs. Hawks

This is probably the closest matchup in the East (which makes sense because it’s the middle seeds), but with Garnett and Rondo rested and Pierce seeming to be the same player he always is, the Hawks just don’t have enough to take it. They’re still very undisciplined (if Josh Smith had an Indian name it would be “Settles For Jumpers”) and they are still stuck with Joe Johnson’s contract (which basically formed a straight-line cause-and-effect to the lockout) and they aren’t supposed to get Al Horford back unless they make it to the second round (see you next year Al).

Celtics in 5.

Lesstern Conference

Spurs vs. Jazz

The Jazz are good, and the Spurs have a history recently of being vulnerable in the first round. But Utah just doesn’t quite have all the pieces yet. Their front court of Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors is pretty intimidating, though, and even Gordon Hayward seems like he might have more of an impact than I think anyone really thought he could. Perhaps with another year or two of playoff experience (and playing together experience) and a better Point Guard they could beat this Spurs team.

Spurs in 6.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Too bad for the Mavs their attempt at a repeat ends here. I’m sure Mark Cuban did his fancy analysis and determined that the guys he has should have played better than they did, but losing Tyson Chandler left them with a much bigger hole than I’d ever thought Tyson Chandler would leave. And of course, the Thunder just continued to get better.

Thunder in 5.

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Maybe the second most interesting series of the whole playoffs. The Lakers are good… but very vulnerable. The Nuggets aren’t as good as they maybe could have been, but they’re still pretty good. Their team is finally all there, and while they don’t have anyone on the level of Kobe, Pau, or Bynum, they do have one of the deeper teams in the league. And the Lakers will be without Ron Artest for most (if not all) of the series. It’s one of only two real toss-ups in my mind, but I feel like if the Nuggets can get up 2-1 then they’ll take it in 6. If they get down 2-1, then Lakers in 6. Which is more likely? I’ll put my money down on Denver.

Nuggets in 6.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers

This is certainly going to be the most closely contested first round match-up. Each team won its home games, so the fact that it went 2-1 LA probably just means it would have been 2-2 if they’d played one more in Memphis. Since Memphis earned home court advantage with their win over the starter-less Magic last night, I’m going to say the trend continues. Both teams are still young and will probably not have the strength or discipline to stand up to the other team’s home crowd.

Grizzlies in 7.

And now that the stats are updated, here’s our regularly scheduled program called This Is Why Your Leagues Should End Before The Last Two Weeks of the Season (in which the stars of your regularly scheduled program have been replaced by a bunch of no-name actors; e.g., if Billy Baldwin replaced Alec on 30 Rock’s LIVE episode, or if Parks & Rec replaced Amy Poehler with Kristin Wiig… no, wait, that would be equally good… How about if Person of Interest replaced Michael Emerson with someone who wasn’t from LOST… no, the old people watching CBS wouldn’t know the difference… How about if the Secret Circle replaced… no… that won’t work at all…).

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Top 50 Fantasy Basketball Keepers for 2012

Categorized as: Author: Patrick
Posted on April, 26 at 11:20 am

This is GMTR’s top 50 long-term keeper list for fantasy basketball keeper leagues. It is based on a player’s estimated fantasy value over the next five seasons. I wrote up the summaries a few games before the end of the season, so the final end of the season stats may differ slightly from the ones presented below.

A quick note about this list. It’s tough enough to predict player value for next week, never mind five years from now. Any long-term keeper list needs to balance experience (and predictability) with youth and potential. Therefore, this list trends more towards experience than one might expect because those are the players were can more accurately predict (or at least that is what I tell myself). A player like Tristan Thompson could easily blow up over the next few years, or he could end up as the next Tyrus Thomas. Because the career path of a very young and unproven player like Thompson is unpredictable, it is difficult to recommend him as a high value keeper at this point in his career.

Similarly, given the long term time horizon of many keeper leagues, it’s silly in a way to rank players so specifically. Like this guy is ranked #23, so he’s definitely a better keeper than the guy who is listed #30. Given how fuzzy all of this is, a better way to do it might be to create keeper tiers, or groups of players that have similar keeper value to each other. That will be my next project, because the NBA off season is just a time to write even more about fantasy basketball.

Give Me The Rock’s top 50 (ish) keepers.

Player (Age) / Position / Team
1. Kevin Durant (23), SF, OKC: The #1 fantasy player in the league according to the GMTR player rater and still only 23 years old. The league’s top keeper by far.

2. LeBron James (27), SF, MIA: At 27, James is right at that point where NBA players typically stop getting better. But LeBron is a freak of nature and has plenty of top 5 fantasy seasons ahead of him.

3. Kevin Love (23), PF, MIN: Love has taken the fantasy combination of points, boards and threes to the next level, averaging 26 ppg, 13.4 rpg and 1.9 tpg this season. At 23, he still has room to improve.

4. Chris Paul (26), PG, LAC: Paul has been the league’s top PG since his third year in the league and if his first season with the Clippers is any indication, he’ll continue to be for at least the next few years.

5. Derrick Rose (23), PG, CHI: Rose’s fourth year was a letdown as various injuries (and Tom Thibodeau) limited him to fewer than 40 games. Expect a bounce back year next season with averages of at least 25 points and 8 assists a game.

6. Russell Westbrook (23), PG, OKC: One troubling development is that he saw his assists drop from 8.2 his third year in the league to 5.4 this season. It’s tough to complain about anything else, though. Has yet to miss a game his four years in the league.

7. Kyrie Irving (20), PG, CLE: As a (mostly) 19 year old, Irving averaged 18.6 points, 5.6 assists and 1.4 threes a game. He’s been a top 5 fantasy PG this season and could easily be a top 3 PG’s next year.

8. Dwight Howard (26), C, ORL: In between the on-again off-again trade demands and the feuding with SVG, Howard put up 20.6 ppg, 14.5 rpg and 2.1 bpg before bowing out with a herniated disk in his back. In roto leagues, drop him down a few (dozen) pegs due to the horrific FT%.

9. LaMarcus Aldridge (26), PF, POR: Remember when Greg Oden was supposed to be the Blazers’ franchise player? In this reality, Aldridge has become that guy for the Blazers, averaging nearly 22 points and 8 rebounds a game.

10. Al Jefferson (27), C, UTA: Big Al lived up to his nickname, taking a step forward this season averaging 19.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg and 1.7 bpg. Current #5 overall on the GMTR player rater.

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Day 123 of 124: DNP: Rest

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Injuries, Player News
Posted on April, 26 at 3:25 am

Day 123 provides us with plenty of examples of why you should not run your H2H fantasy league to the very end of the season. The Sixers, Spurs and Bucks basically sat their entire starting lineups last night. Stars who are even remotely hurt will sit out the final games – Danny Granger, Chris Paul and Andre Iguodala all sat with injuries. And stars that do play will often get the early curtain call, like Steve Nash and Kyrie Irving did last night. It all makes for a mess in the final days of the season.

Line of the Night: Except we can always count on the Thunder. OKC played their final game of the regular season last night and were led by Russell Westbrook (3.43), who scored 30 points, adding 6 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals and 4 blocks in a loss to the Nuggets. Westbrook finishes the year ranked at #22 on the GMTR player rater, which is about 15 spots lower than what we had him projected at going into the year. The drop can solely be attributed to his assist numbers, which dropped from 8.2 per game last season to 5.5 this season. While I appreciate the 24 ppg this year, just remember that you’re a PG Westbrook.

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Durant (1.79) locked up his fantasy MVP case with a strong game to finish out the year. He had 32 points, with 5 threes, 5 rebounds and 4 assists while playing a team high 40 minutes. Serge Ibaka (0.98) blocked another 4 shots on the night to finish the season averaging 3.7 blocks per game (and 4.7 over the past month). Defensive Fantasy Player of the Year! If such a thing existed.

J.J. Redick (2.26) took advantage of the Charlotte Bobcats to score 31 points, hitting 6-10 from three. Ryan Anderson (1.84) chipped in 24 points and 13 rebounds in his bid to take home the league’s most improved player award. The Magic had an unfortunate injury in this game however thanks to the giant feet of Byron Mullens, but more on that below.

John Wall (2.16) dropped 21 points, with 7 rebounds, 13 assists and 7 steals in his “remember what I can do” game for draft day next season. His 6 turnovers are what prevent him from actually taking home a fantasy line of the night. Wall was second in the league (behind Deron Williams) with 3.9 turnovers a game this season, which isn’t great, but Kevin Durant, Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo are 3, 4 and 5 on the list, which is not bad company to be in.

J.R. Smith (2.10) ended the season on fire, with a two week WARP value of 1.16, or top 15 player material. His 21 points, 3 threes, 5 assists and 4 steals also gives him 12 steals over his last three games.

Brandon Jennings (1.82) continues to play like a top 15 fantasy player with 19 points, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 blocks in a loss to the Sixers’ B-team. The entire Bucks’ starting lineup with the exception of Jennings sat in this one, but that did not appear to affect Jennings one bit.

Ty Lawson (1.59) helped the Nuggets move up to the seventh seed in the West with a 25 point, 3 three, 5 rebound, 2 steal performance in a win over the Thunder. The GMTR keeper list is going to be published shortly, and I think Lawson fairs pretty well on it.

CP3 sat out against the Knicks to rest up his groin strain, but Blake Griffin (1.35) carried a lot of the load with 29 points, 10 boards and 6 assists. Of course, he also shot 7-14 from the line, so the dude needs to spend a little less time making KIA commercials and a little more time at the free throw line this summer. The Clippers also got a huge game from…

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Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards After Party

Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards Ceremony

Day 124 of 124: Anybody Home?

Top 50 Fantasy Basketball Keepers for 2012

Day 123 of 124: DNP: Rest

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