As Egypt heads to the polls today, its important to keep in mind that this election may result in a run-off, which will be settled in elections a month from now. There is almost no way to predict what the outcome of this round of elections will be. I’ve read different reports leaning towards Shafiq, Moussa and Morsi all just this morning.
In terms of electoral violence and complaints, this election is running far smoother than recent parliamentary elections. While mainstream media reports from Western news outlet are talking about two block lines and a high voter turn out, the Twittersphere, as of 7:00 AM East Coast time, was wondering why turn out wasn’t higher and attributing it to the heat. Egyptians indicated it was likely the number of voters would increase as the day progressed, and as of 11:00 AM East Coast time, Moussa’s press guy claimed that Morsi was in first place so far, but some pundits are speculating this is just to drive votes up for Moussa.
There are reports that Army officials are filming polling lines, and AFP has reported that one man was shot today, but it doesn’t appear to be escalating as no more news has come out about it. The Egypt Independent has reported that election violations were widespread but minor.
I’ve been reading a lot of the analysis today as it’s breaking, and there’s a lot of good stuff out there, but one I’d particularly like to point out is an article in the Guardian by Jack Shenker, in which he states:
“You don’t have to move far from Tahrir to find these social cleavages. They aren’t packaged for primetime but remain deep, growing and fuelled by grievances that none of the presidential candidates know how to resolve within the existing political and economic apparatus. Islands of informal settlements dot the Nile whose residents battle security forces to avoid eviction – a government-orchestrated community clear-out to make way for financially speculative holiday resorts.”
It’s a good point. Social cleavages will be a particularly hard issue for Egypt to resolve under any single candidate.
Keep an eye out on Twitter on the #Egyelex hash tag, a lot of journalists tweeting to this one as they travel around polling stations.