Sun, Jun 17, 2012, 7:00 AM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Why Joint Central Bank Action Is Unlikely and Won't Work

Speculation that major central banks are planning coordinated action heightened on Friday on a media report that Group of 20 nations are preparing to provide liquidity to financial markets.

But market watchers tell CNBC that this won't happen unless results from this weekend's elections in Greece trigger a "Lehman-type" event, which, they believe is unlikely.

"You will see (global coordinated action) if Greece exits the euro zone and if proves to be a Lehman-type event, and you start seeing a run on the banks across the euro zone," Alastair Newton, Managing Director and Senior Political Analyst at Nomura International, told CNBC on Friday. "You will get action from the Fed and other central banks. But not as it stands at the moment."

Reuters reported on Friday that central banks from major economies stand ready to stabilize financial markets and prevent a credit squeeze should the outcome of Greek elections on Sunday cause panic trading next week. Markets have been volatile this week ahead of this Sunday's elections in Greece, where a victory by the Leftist anti-austerity party Syriza might trigger an exit of the country from the euro zone and spread the turmoil to other financial markets.

U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday on the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P; 500 Index both gaining more than 1 percent.

The previous round of easing by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) back in 2008 happened because credit markets basically "froze up" after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Standard Chartered Bank's Head of FICC (Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities) Research, Will Oswald told CNBC. This doesn't seem to be happening this time round, he said.

"You look at the basis swap market in euro-dollar...you look at the amount of foreign commercial paper issuance in the U.S., it's all at pretty good levels," Oswald said. "So are you going to get the ECB stepping in right now when the funding markets are not telling us that it's under major stress? It's not a signal at this point."

Even if central banks wanted to come together, it is still not clear that any action will be effective or even possible, because it will not solve the banking crisis in Europe, analysts say. Any solution will need the Europeans to agree on a pan-Europe guarantee on banking deposits, and Germany, the region's biggest economy, is adamant against such a move.

"The real problem is the European Central Bank doesn't have the tools it needs to guarantee the solvency of these (European) banks," Peter Morici, Professor at University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business, told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box".

"The Federal Reserve put two trillion dollars into banks. The European Central Bank has to, in a crisis, be empowered to do that by some sort of emergency consensus and take up the role of the Federal Reserve's place in the United States. It simply does not have these powers right now," Morici said.

For any potential coordinated action to work, central banks may need to come up with a far bigger stimulus package than expected, Diane Swonk, Chief Economist of Mesirow Financial said. The ECB and the Federal Reserve have been reluctant to talk about potential action because there are still too many uncertainties "on too many fronts", she added.

"Coordinated effort will require a bigger effect if used to react to, than pre-empt a crisis," Swonk said. "(Central banks) Can't over promise at this stage; [They] don't know what will be needed or if [they] can deliver what is needed."

Don Luskin, Chief Investment Officer of Trend Micro, agrees with Morici that the main issue is the ECB's failure to implement easing measures, not a global coordinated action.

"Now, if you wanted to do something coordinated that would make a difference, let's say they all announced that they're going to do QE ...Well, good luck with that," Luskin said. "If they did, the thing that would be great about that is not that they're all going to do it, but just that the ECB would do it. For goodness' sake, the thing that has to get coordinated is the ECB just has to loosen up a little. That's the issue."

-By CNBC's Jean Chua. Correspondent Sri Jegarajah contributed to this report.



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  • john b  •  1 day 23 hours ago
    I love how they make it seem like these 20 country's actually have a pile of cash in a bank account to stabilize anything.....
    • john 1 day 21 hours ago
      They have plenty of paper in the printing press!......If printing money causes inflation, and the US prints TRILLIONS, and ther is no inflation, does that mean we are staving off DEFLATION?
    • janonomous 1 day 20 hours ago
      John - yes we are staving off deflation. QE1 involved printing $1T to buy Mortgages which stabilized plumetting house prices. We still have home price deflation (lower prices) but it would have been far more significant otherwise. QE2 involved printinf $1T to buy US debt which was in effect debt monetization to facilitate public spending otherwise a deflationary spiral would ensue.
    • john 1 day 18 hours ago
      QE1 stabililized housing prices? No, It partially aimed to lower rates on mortgages, and to provide money to Fannie and Freddie. QE2 "twist" was aimed at the yield curve. You obviously know ZERO about how the mortgage mkt works, and only marginably more about QE2. Please read a little before you see fit to respond as if you knew what is really going on.
  • A Yahoo! User  •  1 day 19 hours ago
    The fact is that the entire Western world has been on a borrowing and consumption binge for twenty years, and the debtor deadbeats, be they nations, corporations or individuals, and the fools who lent money to them, are determined that the honest and prudent among us pay for their greed and stupidity. Unfortunately, they have quite a bit of support from governments and central banks, primarily those of the United States.
    • Bamboo 1 day 19 hours ago
      That is so true! The biggest losers are the honest and prudent that the banksters want to stick with their gambling loses. And they will.
    • m 1 day 18 hours ago
      Forty years, accelerating thirty years ago, otherwise correct. Remember that if debtors borrow enough you don't own them, they own YOU.
    • robert 1 day 18 hours ago
      Let's all pull our money out of the banks and that ought to make them fail because they don't have enough money to cover all U.S. withdrawals at the same time.
  • Toad Y  •  Las Vegas, Nevada  •  1 day 20 hours ago
    So Bailouts (welfare for bankers) won't save the economy, but the market is going up in anticipation of a Bailout. Perverted.
    • bo 1 day 19 hours ago
      The economy and the markets are two different things. The economy will recover over time as the bad debt gets absorbed by production. Any temporary goosing the government and the Fed do only delays the final recovery by disguising the problems. The equities markets will go up because there is no place else to get any return. The bond markets will continue to hold steady or rise as the banks look for a place to park money to hedge any future shocks. Until the Fed allows interest rates to rise there will be no recovery and people who rely on the fixed income market for their retirement will suffer. The only body to benefit from the low interest rates is the Treasury which can finance the massive deficits at a low interest rate. Social Security suffers because the Treasury is paying practically nothing on the money Social Security lent to the Treasury over the years. The problem is that most economists repeat theories they learned in college without regard to whether actual practice validates those theories or not. So when their policies have the exact opposite impact than what they expect they think they didn't do enough of it rather than admit that what they did was totally wrong to begin with. It's the old saw about the headache - if hitting yourself in the head with a hammer didn't cure your headache it must be because you didn't hit yourself hard enough.
    • e d 1 day 19 hours ago
      The smart investors will take advantage of the bounce and get out.
    • e d 1 day 13 hours ago
      Bo, "temporary goosing" delays the crash not the recovery.
  • richard  •  Long Beach, California  •  1 day 16 hours ago
    The banksters who created the problem are not likely to fix the problem. Have you ever heard of Dracula putting blood back in his victims?
    • . 1 day 16 hours ago
      It was more than the bankers
    • Andy 1 day 15 hours ago
      They created the problem purposely, when are people going to understand that?
    • Meat. 1 day 14 hours ago
      Creating investment vehicles that were designed to fail selling them globally and then betting against them..............Dracula is an accurate analogy.
  • Serfdom  •  1 day 23 hours ago
    Just Noise and Distortion from the Masters of the Universe. The Devils spawned from Jekyll Island will have to print more $$$...they have no choice.
    • A Yahoo! User 1 day 22 hours ago
      You hit the nail right on the dollar
    • john 1 day 21 hours ago
      Ron Paul?.....Thomas Jefferson said " Banking institutions are more powerful than stabding armies".
    • Stephen 1 day 21 hours ago
      stabding?
  • Bermonkey  •  1 day 15 hours ago
    Central banks get money for no goods or services produced..money for nothing. I should be in that business.
  • A Yahoo! User  •  1 day 21 hours ago
    I wonder if they could spare a few trillion dollars for the good-old USA, we need to keep our Ponzi going to, at least till the next administration gets in office and then can tell everybody, oh! It wasn’t my fault..
  • Tom Troxler  •  Highlands Ranch, Colorado  •  1 day 20 hours ago
    And people sang and rejoiced as the money lenders covered the earth with paper and called it wealth. There hearts were filled to the brim with praise for the chosen few who could spend them free of debt by leanding them more money. "it is good" could be heard through out the land, as the debt weary loaded there pockets with yet more borrowed money...
  • daniel  •  McClellan, California  •  1 day 16 hours ago
    Central banks should be outlawed. Debt money systems should be outlawed, too. Money should be made by governments, not private central bands. Their goal is to keep the flawed system alive, so they can profit from it and maintain control of the debt money system. Money needs to equal value, not debt. Very few people understand this concept.
  • blame yourself  •  1 day 22 hours ago
    Central banks and joint central banking is the cause of decline and contraction of economy.

    Free markets are hog tied and citizens well on down Hayek's "Road To Serfdom" .

    Free markets are the basis of freedom.

    Central authority is counter intuitive to logic of growth and liberty.
  • Megameat  •  Washington, District of Columbia  •  1 day 14 hours ago
    Bernake simply buys with the right hand a huge percentage of the debt issued by the left hand of Obama. Absurd and artificial, this policy can best be labeled a monetary circle jerk which, in the next few years, once confidence evaporates, will destroy the dollar with raging inflation. As a member of the ruling elite and reliable statist, Bernake makes every effort to bail out the Marxist Obama regime to defer our fiscal crisis until after the fall election.
  • govparasite  •  1 day 14 hours ago
    Hello...the world is built on a debt based economy...there is no "cash "anywhere to pay for Greece let alone the .E/U's debt...it's all just made up numbers on the banksters books that they claim they are owed by everyone...it continues only as long as foolish people believe it is real...hehehe
  • MrPilgrim  •  Sacramento, California  •  1 day 19 hours ago
    Why do people think that providing liquidity to banks so they can buy more toxic European debt is the answer? Well, everyone knows this isn't an answer, just a band-aid. The underlying fiscal fundamentals haven't changed one bit for European countries, and will worsen as rates continue to rise which is a reflection of their problems. So, when rates rise, the bonds the banks hold lose value, which means more bank bailouts every few months.

    It's gonna end REALLY badly.
  • craig  •  1 day 5 hours ago
    The obama debt will cause another downgrade in america and turn us into the next greece
  • Mark  •  1 day 17 hours ago
    The world stock markets are driving the central banks.....if the banks do not deliver next week, the crash will be loud and hard!!!
  • Toadaly  •  Richardson, Texas  •  1 day 19 hours ago
    I often long for the good old days when they didn't socialize corporate losses.
  • Bryon  •  Cincinnati, Ohio  •  1 day 13 hours ago
    Central banks always lead to destruction.
  • MrK  •  River Falls, Wisconsin  •  1 day 19 hours ago
    The sense of urgency to keep dumping bad bank debts on the taxpayers seems to be accelerating.
  • Mozart  •  1 day 14 hours ago
    Got to love it. Central banks will basically give the banks money at close to zero percent interest, and the banks will take the newly created "money", and invest in the market to prop it up. And that helps the avg citizen how? I guess if everybodies doing it, what the hell.
  • CHRIS  •  Altoona, Pennsylvania  •  1 day 21 hours ago
    "you start seeing a run on the banks across the euro zone,"
    The run on banks has been on going in Greece, Spain etc.
    for sometimes. The leaders have no solution. Proping the Banks
    with more funds did not worked in USA and it will not
    work in EU. The crises are just as bad as they were in 1930.
    Forclosures, confiscation, printing prees, fiat instruments, hunger etc.
    "KISS it GOODBUY!"
 
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