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Wed, Jul 11, 2012 at 6:22 AM
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Jim's City Predictions

Since 2003 I have been making city predictions every June 1st for what cities and islands I think will be affected during the hurricane season which runs from June 1st through November 30th. I use a simple mathematical formula to calculate which locations are at a high threat or moderate threat by using past data going back to the late 1800s. There are several factors involved with making my picks so let me go over a few of them so you have a better understanding of my process. I usually wait until late May to start my calculations so that I have a good understanding of the upcoming environment for the season. The cities chosen are pulled from the 152 locations in the HurricaneCity database. The first important criteria is whether it will be above average, average or below average for Atlantic Basin tropical activity. A busy season can often result in certain areas being at high risk versus others. A slower season has a whole different set of cities that would make my top 20. The second criteria is considering whether a city or island is due or overdue for a named storm which you can see on any database city page. An overdue city would be higher on my list than one that is due and of course one that is not due would only make the list if a particular trend stands out. For those that think return rates do not matter consider that only 5 to 7% of the locations in the city database are overdue in any season. The third criteria is whether a location is due or overdue for a hurricane, which does not happen very often. The fourth criteria are for trends. For example, if a city like Miami has a trend of getting hit by a tropical storm followed by a hurricane strike 3 years later and this has happened several times, its high on the list and may be near the top even if it is not due or overdue. The fifth criteria are weather stats such as a history of a dry spell followed by a named storm etc; there are too many examples to list here. If your city is not predicted this does not mean you will not be affected. Every year there are always locations that will be hit that I do not pick, but if you are on the list, especially the top 5, it might be a good idea to be prepared.

My picks for the 2012 season released on June 1st for a named storm coming within 60 miles (subjective to wind fields) (yellowed locations indicate they were affected).

Jim's past years predictions and the storms that affected the chosen locations

2003 top 5:

#1) Halifax NS (Juan), #2) Cozumel (Claudette), #3) Brownsville (Erika), #4) Oviedo DR (Odette), #5) Elizabeth City NC (Isabel)

2004 top 5:

#1) Ft Walton / Pensacola (Ivan), #2) Cape Hatteras (Gaston), #3) Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4) Cozumel (0), #5) Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan)

2005 top 5:

#1) Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2) Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3) Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4) Vero Bch (0), #5) Biloxi MS (Katrina) .... "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning"

2006 top 5:

#1) Vero Bch (Ernesto), #2) Pascagoula MS (0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4) Mobile AL (0), #5) Cape Hatteras (0)

2007 top 5:

#1) Elizabeth City NC (Gabrielle), #2) Belize (Dean), #3) Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4) Antigua (0), #5) Martinique (Dean)

2008 top 5:

#1) St Martin (Omar), #2) Antigua / Guadeloupe (0), #3) Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake Worth (Fay), ticking time bomb = Morgan City LA (Gustav)

2009 top 5:

#1) Grand Bahama (0), #2) Cancun MX (0), #3) Bluefields Nicaragua (Ida), #4) Ft Lauderdale (0), #5) Pascagoula, MS (Ida)

2010 top 5:

#1) Vero Bch (0), #2) Ft Walton Bch (0), #3) Ft Lauderdale (Bonnie), #4) Pascagoula (0), #5) Boynton Bch (0)

2011 top 5:

#1) Boca Raton, FL (0), #2) Grand Bahama Isl (Irene), #3) Boynton Bch, FL (Irene), #4) Great Exuma,Bah (Irene), #5) Belize (Harvey)

Image of satellites

If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes, post it at CaneTalk.com

During this week in hurricane history... Jul. 4th - Jul. 11th.

24 hour GFS model
48 hour GFS model
Long range GFS including NAM
ECMWF Euorpean model in color (Fox Tampa)
ECMWF homepage model, Atlantic animation
Animated versions of CMC, GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS (FSU)
Weather Underground - Jeff Masters, models, tropical info
Current upper level winds
Upper level winds in 48 hrs
Scatterometer storm surface winds
Current & past winds at all levels
National animated wind map
MJO forecast
Tropical cyclone formation potential
African dust (Meteosat only)
Is it warm or cold core system?
Buoy data (with map)
Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
surface discussion
Ship obs & locations from sailwx
Sea level pressure anomalies
current global hazards

Observations of waves in Africa (WU)
Closeup satelites of waves in Africa
Sea surface temperatures (global daily)
Atlantic water temp map (WU)
Forecast water temp map of NE US
Closeup water temp map of SE US
SST animation NOAA atlantic basin
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC
NCEP hurricane potential, from SSTs to water temps
World ocean temperature anomalies over the past 12 weeks
SST Depths and heat potential (AOML)
Crown Weather services zooms in on storm
Wave forecast's for western Atlantic basin
LSU vapor loop showing dry air
RAMMB floaters
Color enhanced vapor loop
Water vapor earth scan lab channel 3 LSU
LSU loop current animation
HurricaneCity satellite page, history, etc;
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order


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