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Tin
Tin is the smallest of the base metals in terms of production volume with less than 300,000 tonnes produced annually, compared with some 20 million tonnes of aluminium produced annually.
Applications
Tin's main uses are in tin plating, solder and in the manufacturing of chemical compounds which are used in a variety of ways, from fire-proofing cloth, to making pvc stabilisers, pesticides and wood preservatives. Tin's use in tin plating for packaging competes directly with aluminium, but the packaging market is big enough for both of them to operate in and each packaging material has its own unique advantages. Tin-coated steel cans are more robust than aluminium cans, which has some advantages for tinned foods.
The biggest boost for tin demand in recent years has been the environmental pressure put on solder manufacturers to cut out lead in solder, which has seen tin content of solder rise from 30% to around 97% - a huge boost for tin consumption.
Demand
The shift in environmental legislation regarding the banning of lead in solder has come to the rescue of the tin market as tin had had a torrid time since the mid-1980's when prices rose to levels that caused manufacturers to switch to other raw materials. However, with a consumer economy emerging in China and gathering pace in other parts of asia, demand for electronics and hence solder should lead to strong tin demand in the years to come. In addition as China's rural population moves into the cities, more food will need to be packaged and this should benefit tin demand. Tin demand has started to recover, in 2004 demand is expected to be 315,000 tonnes, up from 275,000 tonnes in 2000. During much of the 1990's tin demand in the west was actuall falling.
Supply
Tin production is concentrated in South East Asia, Latin America and China, with most smelters close to the mining regions. Although tin mining is carried out by a few large companies, there are also many small independent miners who often work alone or in small groups of two of three, gathering tin ore which they then sell to the producers or local merchants. In times of high prices, these local miners are more active than in times of low prices, which helps regulate supply and demand, but the presence of numerous independent miners sometimes makes it hard for the bigger producers to control supply. This was the case in Indonesia in 2001, where smuggling of tin ores prevented the producers from limiting supply at a time when demand was weak, which was threatening the whole business. Eventually governement legislation banned the export of non-smelted tin, which raised tin price in the international market and returned the industry to profit. Supply is still running below the level of demand, with 2004 production forecast to be 285,000 tonnes. This supply shortfall is a healthy development as during the 1990's and early 2000's stocks had built up to levels that were keeping tin prices below the cost of production. The supply deficit is now drawing down these stocks, which will make the market more responsive to market forces in the future.
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