Short-Term Energy Outlook - Electricity Section

Released: July 10, 2012

Short-term electricity supply, demand, and price projections.

International Energy Outlook - Electricity Section

Released: September 19, 2011

International electricity projections through 2035

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: July 8, 2011

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: April 26, 2011

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Annual Energy Outlook - Electricity Section

Released: April 26, 2011

Electricity projections to 2035.

U.S. Electricity Outlook and Issues

Released: December 7, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: Bipartisan Policy Center, Workshop on Reliability Impacts of Power Sector Developments; Washington, DC

Electricity Plant Cost Uncertainties (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Construction costs for new power plants have increased at an extraordinary rate over the past several years. One study, published in mid-2008, reported that construction costs had more than doubled since 2000, with most of the increase occurring since 2005. Construction costs have increased for plants of all types, including coal, nuclear, natural gas, and wind.

Economics of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

PHEVs have gained significant attention in recent years, as concerns about energy, environmental, and economic securityincluding rising gasoline prices have prompted efforts to improve vehicle fuel economy and reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation sector. PHEVs are particularly well suited to meet these objectives, because they have the potential to reduce petroleum consumption both through fuel economy gains and by substituting electric power for gasoline use.

Tax Credits and Renewable Generation (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

Tax incentives have been an important factor in the growth of renewable generation over the past decade, and they could continue to be important in the future. The Energy Tax Act of 1978 (Public Law 95-618) established ITCs for wind, and EPACT92 established the Renewable Electricity Production Credit (more commonly called the PTC) as an incentive to promote certain kinds of renewable generation beyond wind on the basis of production levels. Specifically, the PTC provided an inflation-adjusted tax credit of 1.5 cents per kilowatthour for generation sold from qualifying facilities during the first 10 years of operation. The credit was available initially to wind plants and facilities that used closed-loop biomass fuels [75] and were placed in service after passage of the Act and before June 1999.

Greenhouse Gas Concerns and Power Sector Planning (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 13, 2009

Concerns about potential climate change driven by rising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have grown over the past two decades, both domestically and abroad. In the United States, potential policies to limit or reduce GHG emissions are in various stages of development at the State, regional, and Federal levels. In addition to ongoing uncertainty with respect to future growth in energy demand and the costs of fuel, labor, and new plant construction, U.S. electric power companies must consider the effects of potential policy changes to limit or reduce GHG emissions that would significantly alter their planning and operating decisions. The possibility of such changes may already be affecting planning decisions for new generating capacity.

Distributed Generation in Buildings (released in AEO2005)

Released: September 24, 2008

Currently, distributed generation provides a very small share of residential and commercial electricity requirements in the United States. The AEO2005 reference case projects a significant increase in electricity generation in the buildings sector, but distributed generation is expected to remain a small contributor to the sectors energy needs. Although the advent of higher energy prices or more rapid improvement in technology could increase the use of distributed generation relative to the reference case projection, the vast majority of electricity used in buildings is projected to continue to be purchased from the grid.

Impacts of Uncertainty in Energy Project Costs (released in AEO2008)

Released: September 24, 2008

From the late 1970s through 2002, steel, cement, and concrete prices followed a general downward trend. Since then, however, iron and steel prices have increased by 8 percent in 2003, 10 percent in 2004, and 31 percent in 2005. Although iron and steel prices declined in 2006, early data for 2007 show another increase. Cement and concrete prices, as well as the composite cost index for all construction commodities, have shown similar trends but with smaller increases in 2004 and 2005.

Limited Electricity Generation Supply and Limited Natural Gas Supply Cases (released in AEO2008)

Released: June 26, 2008

Development of U.S. energy resources and the permitting and construction of large energy facilities have become increasingly difficult over the past 20 years, and they could become even more difficult in the future. Growing public concern about global warming and CO2 emissions also casts doubt on future consumption of fossil fuelsparticularly coal, which releases the largest amount of CO2 per unit of energy produced. Even without regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, the investment community may already be limiting the future use of some energy options. In addition, there is considerable uncertainty about the future availability of, and access to, both domestic and foreign natural gas resources.

Loan Guarantees and the Economics of Electricity Generating Technologies (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

The loan guarantee program authorized in Title XVII of EPACT2005 is not included in AEO2007, because the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 requires congressional authorization of loan guarantees in an appropriations act before a Federal agency can make a binding loan guarantee agreement. As of October 2006, Congress had not provided the legislation necessary for DOE to implement the loan guarantee program (see Legislation and Regulations). In August 2006, however, DOE invited firms to submit pre applications for the first $2 billion in potential loan guarantees.

Electricity Prices in Transition (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

The push by some States to restructure electricity markets progressed rapidly throughout the late 1990s. Although the energy crisis in California during 2000 and 2001 slowed the momentum, 19 States and the District of Columbia currently have some form of restructuring in place. In addition, Washington State, which has not restructured its electricity market, allows its largest industrial customers to choose their suppliers.

Impacts of Rising Construction and Equipment Costs on Energy Industries (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Costs related to the construction industry have been volatile in recent years. Some of the volatility may be related to higher energy prices. Prices for iron and steel, cement, and concretecommodities used heavily in the construction of new energy projects rose sharply from 2004 to 2006, and shortages have been reported. How such price fluctuations may affect the cost or pace of new development in the energy industries is not known with any certainty, and short-term changes in commodity prices are not accounted for in the 25-year projections in AEO2007. Most projects in the energy industries require long planning and construction lead times, which can lessen the impacts of short-term trends.

Energy Technologies on the Horizon (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in AEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Production Tax Credit for Renewable Electricity Generation (released in AEO2005)

Released: April 1, 2005

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, environmental and energy security concerns were addressed at the Federal level by several key pieces of energy legislation. Among them, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA), P.L. 95-617, required regulated power utilities to purchase alternative electricity generation from qualified generating facilities, including small-scale renewable generators; and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), P.L. 95-618, part of the Energy Tax Act of 1978, provided a 10-percent Federal tax credit on new investment in capital-intensive wind and solar generation technologies.

Impacts of Temperature Variation on Energy Demand in Buildings (released in AEO2005)

Released: April 1, 2005

In the residential and commercial sectors, heating and cooling account for more than 40 percent of end-use energy demand. As a result, energy consumption in those sectors can vary significantly from year to year, depending on yearly average temperatures.

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