New Jersey (NJ) Poll * January 18, 2012 * New Jersey Voters Say Christie - Quinnipiac University

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January 18, 2012 - New Jersey Voters Say Christie VP Nod Is Likely, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Big Gender Gap In Governor's Job Approval

Word format A total of 55 percent of New Jersey voters, including 60 percent of Republicans, say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that Gov. Christopher Christie will be selected by the Republican presidential nominee to be his running mate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 68 percent of voters agree with Gov. Christie that he does not have the "right kind of personality to be vice president."
Christie gets a 53 - 39 percent job approval rating and "B" and "C" mid-term grades. This compares to a 56 - 38 percent approval rating in a November 16, 2011, survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 58 - 38 percent mark October 12, right after Gov. Christie said New Jersey voters were "stuck" with him because he wasn't running for president.
In today's survey, approval is 87 - 9 percent among Republicans and 54 - 37 percent among independent voters while Democrats disapprove 64 - 25 percent. Men approve 60 - 34 percent while women approve 47 - 43 percent.
Grading Christie at the half-way point in his first term, New Jersey voters say: A - 20 percent; B - 31 percent; C - 23 percent; D - 14 percent; F - 12 percent.
"Gov. Christopher Christie for VP? A majority think he might get it, but a much larger number agree with the Gov when he says he's not right for the job," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Gov. Christopher Christie gave himself a mid-term 'B-plus.' But New Jersey voters are evenly split as about half give him an 'A' or 'B,' while half give him a 'C' or worse. His overall job approval holds just above 50 percent and 55 percent of New Jerseyans like him personally," Carroll said.
Christie's out-of-state campaigning for Republican front-runner Mitt Romney makes no difference to the way 65 percent of New Jersey voters think of their governor, while 7 percent think more favorably of him because of this campaigning and 27 percent, including 37 percent of Democrats, think less favorably. Race for President, U.S. Senate
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the Republican presidential primary pack with 41 percent, followed by 15 percent for former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, 14 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent for Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and 2 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
President Barack Obama tops Romney 48 - 38 percent, including 42 - 36 percent among independent voters.
New Jersey voters give Obama a split 49 - 48 percent job approval rating and say 49 - 46 percent he deserves to be reelected.
"President Barack Obama's job approval in blue New Jersey is anemic, to say the least, but he's doing better than the other guys, and that's what counts. Let's see what shapes up once the Republicans rally around one candidate," Carroll said.
New Jersey voters say 45 - 38 percent that U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez deserves reelection and give him a 42 - 39 percent job approval rating. Menendez beats an unnamed Republican challenger 46 - 35 percent. These numbers are largely unchanged for months.
Voters give U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg a split 42 - 43 percent job approval rating.
"Sen. Robert Menendez's numbers are tepid, but voters prefer him to a generic Republican," Carroll said.
From January 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,460 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 464 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........ TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Yes No Perry 2% 1% 3% - 2% Gingrich 14 16 11 24 11 Romney 40 41 38 34 43 Santorum 14 13 14 25 10 Paul 12 15 8 12 12 Huntsman 4 4 3 1 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 5 - 4 DK/NA 13 8 19 5 13
TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 2012 2011 2011 Perry 2 3 7 Gingrich 14 22 5 Romney 40 29 28 Santorum 14 1 1 Paul 12 6 11 Huntsman 4 4 2 Bachmann na 3 4 Cain na 12 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 DK/NA 13 16 18
1a. (If voting for Huntsman q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Huntsman using second choice question)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WITHOUT HUNTSMAN TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Yes No Perry 2% 1% 3% - 2% Gingrich 14 17 11 24 11 Romney 41 43 39 34 45 Santorum 15 15 14 25 12 Paul 12 15 9 12 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 5 - 4 DK/NA 13 8 19 5 13
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 48% 5% 88% 42% 46% 49% 37% 94% Romney 38 88 3 36 40 37 49 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 1 6 4 4 4 - DK/NA 9 3 8 12 8 10 8 6 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Obama 67% 49% 39% 50% 35% Romney 21 38 49 34 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 5 3 DK/NA 7 7 10 10 9
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 2012 2011 2011 Obama 48 49 47 Romney 38 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 DK/NA 9 7 7
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 53% 87% 25% 54% 60% 47% 61% 24% Disapprove 39 9 64 37 34 43 32 66 DK/NA 8 4 11 9 6 11 7 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 35% 56% 62% 48% 60% Disapprove 55 36 26 44 34 DK/NA 10 8 11 9 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor? (*Low approve also 44% Jun 2010)
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 Aug 17 Jun 21 Oct 12 Jun 21 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011* Approve 53 56 58 47 44 58 44 Disapprove 39 38 38 46 47 38 47 DK/NA 8 6 4 7 10 4 10
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Sweeney is handling his job as State Senate President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 27% 28% 26% 29% 30% 23% 27% 31% Disapprove 26 23 27 27 29 23 26 19 DK/NA 47 49 47 44 41 54 46 50 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 26% 27% 27% 26% 27% Disapprove 20 27 26 29 27 DK/NA 54 46 47 46 46
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Sweeney is handling his job as State Senate President?
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 2012 2011 2011 Approve 27 23 23 Disapprove 26 28 29 DK/NA 47 50 48
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheila Oliver is handling her job as Assembly Speaker?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 24% 21% 28% 25% 24% 25% 23% 35% Disapprove 20 21 20 21 26 15 21 15 DK/NA 55 58 53 54 50 60 57 50 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 32% 26% 25% 19% 21% Disapprove 14 23 20 18 22 DK/NA 54 51 55 63 56
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheila Oliver is handling her job as Assembly Speaker? (High also 24% Jun 2011, *Low also 19% Aug 2010, Nov 2010)
APPROVAL...... High Low Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 Aug 17 Jun 21 Jan 18 Nov 16 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2011** Approve 24 19 21 21 24 24 19 Disapprove 20 21 23 25 22 20 21 DK/NA 55 60 55 54 55 55 60
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state assembly is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 31% 31% 33% 29% 32% 30% 32% 34% Disapprove 47 46 46 51 51 44 47 42 DK/NA 22 23 20 20 17 26 21 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 37% 32% 34% 25% 28% Disapprove 39 48 41 54 51 DK/NA 24 20 26 21 20
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state assembly is handling its job? (*Low also 25% Dec 2010)
APPROVAL...... High Low Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 Aug 17 Jun 21 Feb 09 Aug 17 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011* Approve 31 30 29 25 27 32 25 Disapprove 47 46 49 55 51 45 55 DK/NA 22 24 22 20 22 22 20
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state senate is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 33% 33% 35% 32% 32% 34% 34% 35% Disapprove 50 48 49 52 55 45 50 42 DK/NA 17 19 16 16 14 20 16 22 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 43% 32% 34% 30% 30% Disapprove 39 53 48 49 55 DK/NA 18 15 18 21 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state senate is handling its job?
APPROVAL...... High Low Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 Aug 17 Jun 21 Feb 09 Aug 17 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 33 32 29 27 31 34 27 Disapprove 50 47 53 57 52 46 57 DK/NA 17 21 18 16 17 20 16
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 42% 23% 59% 40% 43% 41% 38% 53% Disapprove 39 60 20 41 45 33 42 24 DK/NA 20 18 21 19 12 26 20 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 54% 46% 34% 36% 38% Disapprove 35 38 42 36 43 DK/NA 11 17 24 28 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 Jun 21 Jun 21 Feb 20 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2008 Approve 42 43 42 39 45 45 30 Disapprove 39 34 35 42 38 38 31 DK/NA 20 23 23 19 18 18 39
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 42% 26% 62% 38% 43% 42% 41% 56% Disapprove 43 62 21 47 47 38 47 19 DK/NA 15 11 16 15 10 19 12 26 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 48% 48% 41% 36% 37% Disapprove 33 40 45 44 51 DK/NA 19 12 14 21 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High approve also 55% Sep 1999 & Jul 1999)
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 Jun 21 Jul 27 Feb 20 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2000* 2008 Approve 42 45 46 43 46 55 39 Disapprove 43 38 37 45 40 22 31 DK/NA 15 17 17 12 14 23 29
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 49% 12% 85% 42% 45% 53% 40% 91% Disapprove 48 86 12 54 53 44 57 7 DK/NA 3 2 3 4 2 3 3 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 65% 45% 44% 56% 39% Disapprove 34 50 51 42 59 DK/NA 1 4 5 2 2
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
APPROVE....... High Low Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 Jun 21 Jun 10 Oct 13 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 Approve 49 48 43 44 50 68 43 Disapprove 48 48 52 52 46 25 52 DK/NA 3 5 5 4 4 7 5
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kim Guadagno is handling her job as Lieutenant Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 35% 48% 20% 38% 35% 34% 38% 35% Disapprove 22 11 31 22 25 20 20 26 DK/NA 43 41 48 40 40 46 42 39 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 29% 33% 44% 30% 38% Disapprove 23 25 14 22 23 DK/NA 47 43 43 47 39
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kim Guadagno is handling her job as Lieutenant Governor?
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 Nov 09 2012 2011 2011 2010 Approve 35 34 32 31 Disapprove 22 20 24 18 DK/NA 43 46 44 50
13. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 49% 7% 88% 42% 46% 52% 38% 98% No/Does not 46 90 7 50 49 43 57 2 DK/NA 6 3 5 7 5 6 5 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 71% 48% 38% 53% 38% No/Does not 27 47 57 39 55 DK/NA 2 5 5 8 6
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 2012 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 49 50 47 45 No/Does not 46 45 48 49 DK/NA 6 5 5 6
14. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Robert Menendez the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Menendez 46% 6% 87% 40% 43% 49% 39% 76% Republican 35 80 3 32 38 32 43 4 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 6 5 3 10 7 6 7 4 DK/NA 13 8 7 18 12 13 12 16 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 67% 49% 33% 47% 35% Republican 17 35 44 34 44 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 5 8 6 3 7 DK/NA 10 9 17 16 14
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Robert Menendez the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 2012 2011 2011 2011 Menendez 46 47 43 45 Republican 35 35 39 39 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 6 7 7 6 DK/NA 13 10 11 10
15. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 45% 16% 73% 41% 43% 47% 39% 65% No/Does not 38 70 11 40 44 33 45 13 DK/NA 17 14 16 19 13 20 16 22 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 60% 49% 32% 42% 39% No/Does not 28 39 46 33 45 DK/NA 12 13 22 25 16
TREND: Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 2012 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 45 44 40 41 No/Does not 38 37 38 43 DK/NA 17 20 21 16
16. Regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie's policies, would you say you like or don't like Christopher Christie as a person?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Like 55% 83% 29% 58% 59% 51% 61% 33% Don't Like 32 11 52 32 28 37 28 46 DK/NA 13 7 19 10 13 12 11 21 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Like 43% 57% 65% 46% 62% Don't Like 42 33 26 33 27 DK/NA 15 9 9 21 11
TREND: Regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie's policies, would you say you like or don't like Christopher Christie as a person?
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 Aug 17 Jun 21 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Like 55 55 59 50 49 Don't Like 32 32 26 35 33 DK/NA 13 12 14 16 19
17. And regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Christopher Christie's policies?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Like 52% 86% 20% 55% 55% 48% 61% 18% Don't Like 44 9 75 42 41 47 36 77 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 4 5 3 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Like 37% 53% 61% 45% 60% Don't Like 60 44 34 48 36 DK/NA 3 4 5 7 4
TREND: And regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Christopher Christie's policies?
Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 12 Aug 17 Jun 21 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Like 52 54 54 48 45 Don't Like 44 40 42 47 49 DK/NA 4 6 4 5 6
18. What letter grade would you give him for the job he has been doing as Governor; A, B, C, D, or F?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A 20% 42% 4% 17% 23% 17% 23% 4% B 31 41 19 34 32 29 36 11 C 23 9 29 27 23 22 20 33 D 14 6 22 11 13 15 12 22 F 12 1 25 9 9 15 8 28 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore A 12% 19% 22% 16% 27% B 23 29 37 32 33 C 29 23 23 19 21 D 19 16 9 16 10 F 17 13 6 15 9 DK/NA - - 4 3 -
TREND: What letter grade would you give him for the job he has been doing as Governor; A, B, C, D, or F ? (* Included reference to 6 months)
Jan 18 Nov 09 Aug 19 2012 2010 *2010 A 20 17 15 B 31 31 32 C 23 20 20 D 14 16 16 F 12 15 14 DK/NA 1 1 2
19. As you may know, Christie has traveled to other states to campaign for Mitt Romney. Does this make you think more favorably of Christie, less favorably of Christie, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More favorably 7% 14% 3% 4% 7% 6% 7% 4% Less favorably 27 13 37 28 27 28 25 35 Doesn't make a diff 65 73 58 67 65 65 66 59 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More favorably 5% 6% 8% 7% 7% Less favorably 27 31 26 27 23 Doesn't make a diff 67 62 65 64 69 DK/NA - 1 - 3 1
20. How likely do you think it is that Christopher Christie will be selected by the Republican Presidential nominee to be their Vice-Presidential running mate; very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very likely 16% 14% 19% 13% 14% 17% 13% 30% Smwht likely 39 46 33 41 37 41 43 29 Not very likely 24 28 21 23 26 21 27 16 Not likely at all 18 9 23 20 19 17 14 19 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 6 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very likely 15% 16% 17% 15% 15% Smwht likely 27 41 42 43 40 Not very likely 29 22 26 23 23 Not likely at all 23 17 13 17 19 DK/NA 7 4 2 2 4
TREND: How likely do you think it is that Christopher Christie will be selected by the Republican Presidential nominee to be their Vice-Presidential running mate; very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?
Jan 18 Oct 12 Jun 21 2012 2011 2011 Very likely 16 10 10 Somewhat likely 39 35 33 Not very likely 24 28 28 Not likely at all 18 24 24 DK/NA 4 3 5
21. Christie says that he doesn't have the right kind of personality to be Vice President. Do you agree or disagree with Christie?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 68% 61% 73% 70% 65% 71% 67% 70% Disagree 26 34 21 25 30 24 28 22 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 9 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 78% 65% 65% 71% 64% Disagree 16 29 26 26 31 DK/NA 7 6 8 3 5
TREND: Christie says that he doesn't have the right kind of personality to be Vice President. Do you agree or disagree with Christie?
Jan 18 Oct 12 2012 2011 Agree 68 74 Disagree 26 19 DK/NA 6 7
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling the state budget?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 52% 84% 21% 58% 58% 46% 61% 14% Disapprove 42 12 71 38 37 47 34 78 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 5 7 4 9 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 35% 52% 65% 45% 61% Disapprove 59 43 28 49 33 DK/NA 6 5 7 6 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling the state budget?
APPROVE High Low Jan 18 Nov 17 Aug 17 Jun 21 Apr 21 Nov 17 Jun 17 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 Approve 52 54 50 47 50 54 45 Disapprove 42 39 46 48 46 39 49 DK/NA 6 7 4 6 4 7 6
Demographic Summary