Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 TO 100 N MI OF THE ADVISORY
LOCATION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS LOW LATITUDES. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE RESULTING IN EITHER WEAKENING OR A STEADY
STATE.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A RATHER LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BETWEN 40 AND 50 DEGREES WEST WILL PROBABLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AT 45
DEGREES WEST. IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS AT LOWER LATITUDES...IT COULD
CONTINUE WESTWARD A LITTLE LONGER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 11.7N  38.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 12.5N  40.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.8N  42.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N  45.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N  47.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N  50.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N  52.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  53.5W    55 KT
 
 
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