Tropical Depression NINE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE
OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
DISRUPT DEVELOPMENT.  THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE SOME WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO HIGH TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...STRENGHTENING IS
EXPECTED ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BACK OVER WATER BETWEEN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY FAVORABLE. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DESTROYED OVER LAND. 

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS 
STEERED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEYOND 3 DAYS AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH AND BREAKS DOWN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL 
MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. LET'S SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 12Z MODEL RUNS. 

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DETERMINE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.    
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 16.4N  68.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N  70.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N  72.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N  74.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N  75.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N  77.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  78.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  80.0W    60 KT
 
 
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