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Capital Weather Gang

Capital Weather Gang
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  1. Recent Posts by Others on Capital Weather GangSee All
    •  Snowfall in Tenafly, NJ at 5:00pm EST
      about an hour ago
    • In a strong Noreaster what can the sustain winds and gusts at Nantucket be?
      about an hour ago
    • Mark Richards
      8 minutes of SLEET (Ice Pellets) this morning at DCA First "Official" Snowfall of the Season (Trace)
      21 · 5 hours ago
    • Mark Wadas
      Flakes in Fair Lakes
      5 hours ago
    • Christine Saah Nazer
      Did I miss your winter weather outlook? When will you release it? Thanks!
      2 · 6 hours ago
  2. At 5pm: Nantucket- sustained wind 48, gusting 64mph. Islip Long Island- moderate snow, 33 degs, wind gust 43 mph. #Noreaster
  3. Little band of mixed precip pivoting S into E DC, NE PG co. Temps 40-45, no problems. Radar: http://ow.ly/i/16u5d
    Photo: Little band of mixed precip pivoting S into E DC, NE PG co. Temps 40-45, no problems. Radar: http://ow.ly/i/16u5d
  4. Collection of snowy/windy photos/images of Nor'easter from Conn, NY, NJ, DE, NC. Link: http://wapo.st/TwxktA
  5. Via WeatherMatrix (Jesse Ferrell): "Outer Banks taking another beating from the Nor'easter (although this is the "normal" area where it floods, it wouldn't have been as bad as this if Sandy hadn't just removed the dunes there)."
    Mirlo Beach Rodanthe taking a post-Hurricane Nor'easter beating.
    Photo: Mirlo Beach Rodanthe taking a post-Hurricane Nor'easter beating.
  6. No surprise: winter weather advisory dropped for Baltimore city and southern Baltimore co.
  7. 45 in DC at 3 pm and overcast. Light rain at BWI and 43. That's not going to get it done for snow lovers.
  8. Via Mark Richards, Reagan National (DCA) weather observer: " 8 minutes of SLEET (Ice Pellets) this morning at DCA First "Official" Snowfall of the Season (Trace)"
  9. Nor'easter is really slamming the coast just to our northeast from DE to Mass. Wind gusts 50-70 mph from Long Island to E Mass, high seas, and HEAVY snow falling from SE Pa to W Conn where more than 2" has fallen already.

    Our latest blog post describes what's happening up and down the coast: http://wapo.st/PXC5Q9
    Photo: Nor'easter is really slamming the coast just to our northeast from DE to Mass.  Wind gusts 50-70 mph from Long Island to E Mass, high seas, and HEAVY snow falling from SE Pa to W Conn where more than 2" has fallen already. 

Our latest blog post describes what's happening up and down the coast: http://wapo.st/PXC5Q9
  10. Anyone in Baltimore area getting precip? Let us know
  11. Note: b/c of #Sandy then election then Nor'easter, our winter outlook release pushed back from Nov 1 to 13...next Tues
  12. Radar shows good precip coverage DE-Mass, band trying to work into NE Md, but dry air cutting off: http://1.usa.gov/YKcMlx
  13. We're a little less bullish about snow prospects for DC with temps rising above 40 and heaviest precip likely to stay to our northeast. Here's our snow map. Even around Baltimore, we think it will be a stretch for them to get into the accumulating snow.

    Our blog post offers some details on the forecast: http://wapo.st/YJTZXF
    Photo: We're a little less bullish about snow prospects for DC with temps rising above 40 and heaviest precip likely to stay to our northeast.  Here's our snow map.  Even around Baltimore, we think it will be a stretch for them to get into the accumulating snow.

Our blog post offers some details on the forecast: http://wapo.st/YJTZXF
  14. Wed Digit: 4/10 - Tough one to score. Kind of fun if we see 1st flakes of season. But the cold wind & rain part is no fun at all. Dan, CWG
  15. Snow Potential Index: 3/10 (↑) Right on the line btwn some melting flakes vs. enough for a light coating on ground Wed PM
  16. Great summary of impacts for Nor'easter in areas east and northeast of DC from the NWS Eastern Region office
    Here is the latest update on the coastal storm for Wednesday into Thursday. Forecast confidence on the storm track continues to be below normal, and the affects of Sandy will result in increased impacts from this storm. A number of watche...
    s, warnings and advisories have been issued as of 5 pm Tuesday as indicated on the graphic.

    - The current forecast is for the storm to be strong enough and track close enough to the coast to cause strong winds, especially near the coast. These winds could blow down trees and limbs weakened from Sandy, resulting in additional power outages.
    - The combination of storm surge and wave action could still cause minor to locally moderate coastal flooding and additional beach erosion along the mid-Atlantic and New England coast. Fortunately we are between the full and new moon so normal astronomical tide levels will be lower than usual. There is some uncertainty regarding how the dune erosion and new inlets caused by Sandy might affect the degree of flooding from this storm. The threat for coastal flooding will be primarily during the high tides Wed afternoon/evening and late Wed night/Thu morning.
    - Wet snow, occasionally mixed with sleet, freezing rain and rain is expected from northern Maryland north through interior New Jersey, southeastern New York into central New England including parts of Maine. A couple of inches of accumulation is possible, especially at higher elevations. Since the ground is still warm, accumulation on colder and elevated surfaces such as tree limbs may be greater, presenting an addition hazard for trees and power lines.

    We are glad to report that our web pages have returned to normal. Additional details such as specific storm surge and snowfall forecasts can be found on local NWS office web and facebook pages including:
    US National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington
    US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly
    US National Weather Service New York NY
    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    US National Weather Service Gray ME
    US National Weather Service Caribou ME
    See More
    Photo: Here is the latest update on the coastal storm for Wednesday into Thursday.  Forecast confidence on the storm track continues to be below normal, and the affects of Sandy will result in increased impacts from this storm.  A number of watches, warnings and advisories have been issued as of 5 pm Tuesday as indicated on the graphic.

- The current forecast is for the storm to be strong enough and track close enough to the coast to cause strong winds, especially near the coast.  These winds could blow down trees and limbs weakened from Sandy, resulting in additional power outages. 
- The combination of storm surge and wave action could still cause minor to locally moderate coastal flooding and additional beach erosion along the mid-Atlantic and New England coast. Fortunately we are between the full and new moon so normal astronomical tide levels will be lower than usual. There is some uncertainty regarding how the dune erosion and new inlets caused by Sandy might affect the degree of flooding from this storm. The threat for coastal flooding will be primarily during the high tides Wed afternoon/evening and late Wed night/Thu morning.
- Wet snow, occasionally mixed with sleet, freezing rain and rain is expected from northern Maryland north through interior New Jersey, southeastern New York into central New England including parts of Maine. A couple of inches of accumulation is possible, especially at higher elevations. Since the ground is still warm, accumulation on colder and elevated surfaces such as tree limbs may be greater, presenting an addition hazard for trees and power lines.

We are glad to report that our web pages have returned to normal.  Additional details such as specific storm surge and snowfall forecasts can be found on local NWS office web and facebook pages including:
US National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington
US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly
US National Weather Service New York NY
US National Weather Service Boston MA
US National Weather Service Gray ME
US National Weather Service Caribou ME
  17. Today's hi temp at Reagan Natl just 48. Coldest on record since late 1800s for Presidential Election Day in DC.
  18. Nice map shows peak wind gusts from Hurricane Sandy... h/t WeatherMatrix
    Here's a map of peak winds observed across the region during Sandy - see more maps at http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/
    Photo: Here's a map of peak winds observed across the region during Sandy - see more maps at http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/
  19. SNOW!!! Now that we have your attention, we do think we have a decent chance of seeing our first flakes of the season tomorrow (mixing with rain). But maybe just a 20 percent chance the ground turns white (or more). There also still a cha...
    nce the storm misses us!

    Our latest blog post breaks down the different snow or no snow scenarios for Wednesday: http://wapo.st/PUWu8x

    (pictured, simulated radar showing precip just brushing our region Wed at 4 p.m. - better chance of significant precip is to the east and northeast)
    See More
    Photo: SNOW!!! Now that we have your attention, we do think we have a decent chance of seeing our first flakes of the season tomorrow (mixing with rain).  But maybe just a 20 percent chance the ground turns white (or more).  There also still a chance the storm misses us!

Our latest blog post breaks down the different snow or no snow scenarios for Wednesday: http://wapo.st/PUWu8x

(pictured, simulated radar showing precip just brushing our region Wed at 4 p.m. - better chance of significant precip is to the east and northeast)
  20. Nor'easter - unfortunately - still looks like it will pound the Delmarva and NJ/NY Shores, even if it just grazes us in DC. Wind gusts over 50 mph, major to severe beach erosion, 6-10 foot waves, and moderate coastal flooding possible. No...
    t good for shoreline defenses, already compromised by Sandy. Inland from the coast a bit,there will be accumulating snow.

    Our latest blog post rounds-up the expected impacts for the coast. We'll have an update on what to expect in DC mid-afternoon. http://wapo.st/PUBper

    (Images, via WeatherBell.com, show storm location and projected wind speeds in knots at 7 pm Wed night from 2 models)
    See More
    Photo: Nor'easter - unfortunately - still looks like it will pound the Delmarva and NJ/NY Shores, even if it just grazes us in DC.  Wind gusts over 50 mph, major to severe beach erosion, 6-10 foot waves, and moderate coastal flooding possible.  Not good for shoreline defenses, already compromised by Sandy. Inland from the coast a bit,there will be accumulating snow.

Our latest blog post rounds-up the expected impacts for the coast. We'll have an update on what to expect in DC mid-afternoon. http://wapo.st/PUBper

(Images, via WeatherBell.com, show storm location and projected wind speeds in knots at 7 pm Wed night from 2 models)
  21. Headed out to vote at lunch? It's partly sunny and 45 in DC at noon. That's about 10 degs cooler than avg.
  22. Election weather history. Did you know the coldest Presidential election day on record was in 1960 (JFK v. Nixon) when the high was only 49. We might be just as cold today! Interesting fact: it has never snowed on an election day in DC (on record).

    Our latest blog post walks you through D.C.'s election weather history: http://bit.ly/U6JBn1
    Photo: Election weather history. Did you know the coldest Presidential election day on record was in 1960 (JFK v. Nixon) when the high was only 49.  We might be just as cold today!  Interesting fact: it has never snowed on an election day in DC (on record).

Our latest blog post walks you through D.C.'s election weather history: http://bit.ly/U6JBn1
  23. Lots of sunshine but still cold at 9 am. 39 in DC. Highs below 50 most spots today. Dress warmly heading out to the polls or wherever...
  24. This morning's lows: Reagan National 34, Dulles 27, BWI 28. Coldest of season so far!
  25. Snow potential index: 1/10 ↓ We’ll have some cold air Wed PM, but Nor’easter storm track trending offshore with little precip for us.
  26. Nor'easter may miss DC entirely based on current models/trends. Either that or a graze.
  27. Tuesday's digit: 5/10 - No precipitation concerns for voters but a late November-like chill. Kathryn/Jason, CWG
  28. Nor'easter *may* be a big deal in same places hit hardest by Sandy. The National Weather Service calls it a "potentially dangerous situation." High winds, big waves, and coastal flooding *poss* in NY/NJ. On the plus side, some of the lat...
    est models are developing the storm far enough out to sea to spare this region *somewhat*.

    Our latest blog post has a round-up of the latest situation. The good news is that the DC area is increasingly looking like it will just be on the edge of this storm. Link: http://wapo.st/REFCjb

    (Image shows storm simulations of three models from this morning. Graphics courtesy WeatherBell.com)
    See More
    Photo: Nor'easter *may* be a big deal in same places hit hardest by Sandy.  The National Weather Service calls it a "potentially dangerous situation."  High winds, big waves, and coastal flooding *poss* in NY/NJ.  On the plus side, some of the latest models are developing the storm far enough out to sea to spare this region *somewhat*.

Our latest blog post has a round-up of the latest situation.  The good news is that the DC area is increasingly looking like it will just be on the edge of this storm. Link: http://wapo.st/REFCjb

(Image shows storm simulations of three models from this morning. Graphics courtesy WeatherBell.com)
  29. The "trusty" Euro model has backed off the snow potential some Wed night and is more in line w/ the rest of the models now which put us right on the edge of getting snow.

    Winter weather expert Wes Junker gives a detailed update on the models and our latest thinking for snow Wed night and the Nor'easter: http://wapo.st/YwQcNl
  30. Freeze Warning tonight entire DC/Baltimore area. Say goodbye to the growing season for most of us. If it drops to 32 at Reagan Natl airport, that's almost two weeks ahead of average in the last 30 years.

    Shaded areas show where the warning applies. Our blog post has more. http://wapo.st/WrlO8S
    Photo: Freeze Warning tonight entire DC/Baltimore area.  Say goodbye to the growing season for most of us.  If it drops to 32 at Reagan Natl airport, that's almost two weeks ahead of average in the last 30 years.

Shaded areas show where the warning applies. Our blog post has more. http://wapo.st/WrlO8S
  31. Gorgeous sunset yesterday in Ellicott City. Thanks to Timothy Butz for sharing this stunning skyscape!
    Sunset with a crisp 50 degrees on Sunday November 4, 2012 in Ellicott City, MD.
    Photo: Sunset with a crisp 50 degrees on Sunday November 4, 2012 in Ellicott City, MD.
  32. How will weather affect the election? Will it favor Democrats? Republicans? Will Sandy play any role? Polling data indicates stormy weather favors Republicans - who turn out better in inclement weather. But how do things look across the co...
    untry tomorrow?

    Our latest blog post explores: http://wapo.st/SO0dnx

    (Image, courtesy StormVistaWxmodels.com, shows simulated precipitation Tuesday afternoon - unusually quiet... that should give you a hint about weather's role this year...)
    See More
    Photo: How will weather affect the election? Will it favor Democrats? Republicans? Will Sandy play any role? Polling data indicates stormy weather favors Republicans - who turn out better in inclement weather.  But how do things look across the country tomorrow?

Our latest blog post explores: http://wapo.st/SO0dnx

(Image, courtesy StormVistaWxmodels.com, shows simulated precipitation Tuesday afternoon - unusually quiet... that should give you a hint about weather's role this year...)
  33. Lows this AM: Reagan Natl 41, Dulles 38, BWI 36. Still only low 40s at 9 am thanks to clouds, which should fade, w/ highs 46-51.
  34. Snow potential index: 2/10 - Wed night wet snow remains a long shot, but stranger things have happened
  35. Monday's digit: 5/10 - Yes, there’s sun. But why must it feel like December in November? Jason, CWG
  36. Today's hi/lo temps: Reagan Nat 53/38, Dulles 51/33, BWI 51/33. These are ~8 degs below normal. 7 straight colder than normal days.
  37. First sunny afternoon in over a week in DC! Sunny and 52 at 3 pm, but cold tonight w/ freeze poss colder suburbs.
  38. Freeze warning for Fauquier, Loudoun, Frederick, Montgomery, and Howard co. 4-8 am Monday. Protect tender vegetation, lows in low 30s: http://1.usa.gov/aoOolN
  39. Nor'easter- Models agree a storm is developing this week (image here shows the major 4 models- Canadian, GFS, UKMEt, and EURO, left to right top to bottom), and should be a pretty strong one - but nothing like Sandy. Question is how much p...
    recip makes it into DC. There's also the question of precip type-snow is a long shot but can't entirely be ruled out Wed night. At the end of the day, this storm is a bigger deal for coastal areas, which - unfortunately are likely to see beach erosion and some flloding.

    Our latest blog post explains: http://wapo.st/RzHprg
    See More
    Photo: Nor'easter- Models agree a storm is developing this week (image here shows the major 4 models- Canadian, GFS, UKMEt, and EURO, left to right top to bottom), and should be a pretty strong one - but nothing like Sandy.  Question is how much precip makes it into DC.  There's also the question of precip type-snow is a long shot but can't entirely be ruled out Wed night.  At the end of the day, this storm is a bigger deal for coastal areas, which - unfortunately are likely to see beach erosion and some flloding.

Our latest blog post explains: http://wapo.st/RzHprg
  40. Key caveat of SPI is that it rates the potential of *accumulating* snow. Flakes that melt on contact don't count
  41. SPI is a daily assessment of snow potential over next week on 1-to-10 scale. More on SPI: http://ow.ly/f08qt
  42. The Snow Potential Index (SPI) is our daily assessment of potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale
  43. Snow Potential Index: 2 - Midweek storm threat brings out SPI. Not ideal setup for accum snow, but worth watching closely
  44. Sunday Digit: 6/10 - Same partly to mostly cloudy chill as Saturday gets same score, but minus 1 for earlier sunset
  45. Here's your obligatory reminder to set clocks back 1hr tonight, at least those that won't auto adjust. Sunday sunset? 5:04pm
  46. Sunshine on verge of breaking thru at least in spots. Would be nice to see some on this last day of daylight saving time
  47. Storm threat looks real for middle of next week, especially for coastal areas. An outside chance parts of the DC area could even get snow Wed night under certain circumstances.

    Our latest blog post explains: http://wapo.st/PNPpq4

    (Image shows four different model scenarios)
    Photo: Storm threat looks real for middle of next week, especially for coastal areas.  An outside chance parts of the DC area could even get snow Wed night under certain circumstances.

Our latest blog post explains: http://wapo.st/PNPpq4

(Image shows four different model scenarios)
  48. Clouds remain stubborn so far today. Temps may not get much past near 50 if clouds hold on through the afternoon.
  49. Some breaks in the clouds around the area as temperatures rise into the mid-40s. Prep for cool breezes if headed out.

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