New banking sheriff will aim further to the right
By Daniel Indiviglio The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The newest banking sheriff will be aiming further to the right. Jeb Hensarling, a Republican from Texas, will probably be the next chairman of the agenda-setting U.S. House Financial Services Committee. Like most GOP legislators, he wants to gut the Dodd-Frank financial reforms. Hensarling is also keen to get Uncle Sam out of the housing market and has supported refocusing the Federal Reserve. Especially following President Barack Obama’s re-election, though, such a bold agenda could be tough to advance.
Hensarling studied economics and helped raise money for a hedge fund before going whole hog into politics. He’s already the committee’s vice chairman and served on the president’s Simpson-Bowles deficit commission. All that makes Hensarling more qualified than most for the chamber’s top finance job and puts him in pole position to succeed Spencer Bachus.
Big election loser: Uncle Sam’s global status
By Edward Hadas
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
When Barack Obama entered the White House in 2009, he was the world’s darling. Politicians and citizens in many countries, not to mention the Nobel Peace Prize committee, saw an intelligent, decisive and idealistic leader. Such a man could help set the global agenda dealing with its many challenges. Four years later, expectations will be lowered.
Obama’s legacy depends on second-term compromise
By Daniel Indiviglio
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
A successful second term for U.S. President Barack Obama depends on him learning to compromise. He won’t have much time to celebrate his win over Mitt Romney before confronting a mandatory raft of tax increases and spending cuts. To avert an imminent recession, he will need to channel his predecessor Bill Clinton and bring together a divided Congress on fiscal reform. A grand bargain could assure his place in history.
The biggest winner in U.S. election: Mr. Uncertainty
By Daniel Indiviglio The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Mr. Market might as well concede now to Mr. Uncertainty. Although American polls won’t close until Tuesday evening, neither President Barack Obama nor his challenger Mitt Romney is likely to emerge with a robust mandate. It doesn’t take a worst-case, state-by-state recount scenario to foresee market gridlock.
As Americans head to the voting booths, the election looks too close to call. RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Obama winning the popular vote by 0.7 percentage point. And on the measure that matters – the electoral college – too many swing states are still in a dead heat to confidently predict a winner.
QE-lenient world gives Vietnam financial pardon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
By Wayne Arnold
Investors can’t stay mad at Vietnam. Even after a downgrade last month by rating agency Moody’s, they’re willing to lend Hanoi dollars for less. Rising exports have helped restore reserves and avert a potential balance of payments crisis, while top officials have apologised for economic mismanagement. In a world awash with cash, however, investors are all too eager to forgive and forget.
Chris Christie may soon feel Barack Obama’s pain
By Agnes T. Crane The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
Chris Christie’s budding bromance with Barack Obama may grow even stronger. New Jersey’s Republican governor, who praised the president as they surveyed superstorm devastation together last week, faces a Sandy-related revenue hit that will make it hard to balance the budget, as mandated by the state constitution. That could leave Christie stealing a page from Obama’s election playbook.
Recent history may provide a guide for the Garden State. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita contributed to a 42 percent decline in Louisiana’s tax receipts in third-quarter 2005. Considering, for example, the direct impact on Atlantic City, a gambling and convention hub, New Jersey could easily experience something similar.
Chinese reforms could trigger domino effect
By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
What does China want? Sustained growth, and happier citizens. How will it get there? Through economic reform. It sounds simple enough.
There’s something rotten with U.S. labor picture
By Martin Hutchinson The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
There’s something rotten with the American jobs picture – even if it’s not immediately apparent from the latest report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In October the economy created 171,000 new jobs, and 84,000 more were added to previous months’ tallies. That’s good for President Barack Obama’s re-election chances. But only half the recession’s job losses have been regained, and with the recovery from each recession becoming harder to overcome than the previous one, it’s clear the next president will need to grapple with some deep structural problems to succeed.
By historical standards, America’s recovery from the 2008 recession has been anomalously weak. Between 1958 and 1982 the economy recovered quickly, with jobs lost in downturns fully regained within 10 or 11 months, including the severe recession of 1982, whose peak unemployment rate exceeded 2010’s. Something happened in the past 20 years, however. After the 1990-91 downturn the jobs market took 21 months to fully rebound. After the 2001-02 dip, full employment recovery took 31 months. This time around, 32 months have passed since the jobs nadir of February 2010, and only 53 percent of the jobs lost have been recovered.
With GOP Grand Obstruction Party, its a wonder we have private sector growth there. Obama has done double work to keep things moving. Get the TP out of congress and see growth where it counts – the middle, and see it expand. Infrastructure sorely needed.
Bank of England probes avoid elephant in room
By Hugo Dixon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The three probes that the Bank of England commissioned into its performance largely avoid the elephant in the room: the central bank’s culture. The BoE hasn’t covered itself in glory in recent years. It didn’t speak up during the credit bubble. It was slow to respond when the crunch came in 2007. It didn’t spot warning signs that banks might be deliberately misreporting the Libor interest rate. The central bank hasn’t even been good at forecasting the economy: it has been over-optimistic on both inflation and growth.
Japan risks consumer electronics death spiral
By Peter Thal Larsen
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
“We are among the losers in consumer electronics.” That frank assessment by Panasonic president Kazuhiro Tsuga sums up the state of Japan’s once world-beating electronics industry. The economy is partly to blame for slumping demand for Japanese gadgets, but so are rivals like Apple and Samsung. The worry is that the financial squeeze undermines product development, leaving Japan ever further behind.
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Breakingviews: Wall St gets a thumpNov. 7 - The election of Elizabeth Warren to the Senate shows the anti-bank message still resonates strongly in the U.S., says Reuters Breakingviews.Video
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Breakingviews: Americans head to the pollsNov 6 - Rob Cox, Edward Hadas and Richard Beales discuss the likelihood of a clear winner emerging from the U.S. presidential election and his priorities from the get-go.Video
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