October 16, 2012

Untenable critiques sowing confusion on supposed ill-effects of retail FDI

Retail sector liberalisation has been revived and included in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s package of big-bang reforms announced recently. This was to be expected as an element of the package since the influential minister Jairam Ramesh, who has access to Sonia Gandhi and is identified with her NGO-dominated set of advisers whose knowledge of economics is outweighed by their enthusiasm, had already announced his conversion to retail sector liberalisation.

As expected, Mamta Banerjee has withdrawn her support to the UPA government over the issue. Equally, opposition parties, chiefly the BJP, have opposed the move. Interestingly, the BJP opposition, as that of advisers to Nitish Kumar, is nuanced. Their argument is that this is a high-risk strategy and that the Prime Minister could have chosen other ‘surer’ reforms, with a higher payoff-to-risks ratio, as part of his package: e.g., further trade liberalisation as we still have ways to go in that regard, and trade liberalisation since the early 1990s has been a great success.

We would argue that this argument is implausible. The economic gains from retail sector liberalisation are considerable indeed, as has been argued in many studies. Also, as we argue below, the liberalisation of the retail sector offers little risk: the risk to the small shopkeepers – the so-called mom-and-pop shops, a cultural misnomer since, in India, the old moms and pops are not seen in these small shops as much as middle-aged and younger family members – is limited.

Besides, we should have learnt by now that forgoing economic gains just because you are afraid of a possible downside is the wrong way to plan. Instead, we should embrace these gains and have a machinery set up to assist the small shopkeepers if and when they succumb to, instead of profiting from, the influx of the multi-brand retailers.

What is surprising, however, is that some economists have also expressed opposition to the proposed retail liberalisation. Chief among them are the economists Raghabendra Jha (who works in Australia) and Raghav Gaiha (who teaches management in Delhi University). Their recent arguments in ET that “not only will multi-brand retail FDI hurt kiranas, infrastructure and farmers too won’t gain” ( Wholesale Gaps in Retail FDI, October 4, 2012) are readily refuted.

Thus, they claim incorrectly that there is no evidence showing that FDI in multi-brand retailing will not affect the growth of kirana, i.e., small stores. In a forthcoming but long-available paper written in the Program on Indian Economic Policies at Columbia University in April 2011 – a shorter version based on it is in our article, Selling The Wrong Idea, Times of India, December 12, 2011 – we used the results of a time-series model to predict that retail sales can continue to grow at the post-2005 rates in the short run, and that unorganised (read: small) retailers should capture three-quarters of a projected $138 billion increase in real retail sales during 2009-16. The entry of multinational retailers may lower the sales increase for unorganised retailers, but it will not reverse their growth in the near future.

Second, we are free to learn from experience in other countries. In particular, we can draw on the Japanese experience where the mom-and-pop scare was raised when the US used gaiatsu (foreign pressure) to virtually eliminate restrictions on the expansion of large retail sector stores. Japanese experience, which we and others have studied, show that little of this happened. By contrast, Messrs Jha and Gaiha offer little more than assertions in embracing the usual fears of damage to the small shops.

Third, Jha and Gaiha claim there is no evidence to suggest that farmers will earn higher prices after the entry of multinational retailers. Instead, they expect these firms to act as monopsonies. Our research indicates that Indian farmers typically earn a third – instead of the international norm of two-thirds – of the final price of their produce because of greater waste and less efficient distribution, and because wholesalers operate as exclusive buyers by the state APMC Acts.

One aim of the required investments in storage and warehousing by multinational retailers is to reduce waste and improve supply-chain efficiency. Contrary to the claim that multinational retailers will become monopsonies, we have argued in our research that farmers should to able to sell to multiple (domestic and multinational) organised retailers as well as the existing wholesalers supplying unorganised retailers.

Fourth, Jha and Gaiha claim that there is no evidence to suggest that multinational retailers may create eight million jobs. We believe this claim is correct but misleading. While the figure has been attributed to an executive in a news story, we are unaware of any policymakers or researchers who have made such claims, which in any event make no sense in the absence of a time frame or knowledge about the entrants and their strategies.

Thus, Jha and Gaiha fail to make a case against retail sector liberalisation. In particular, their assertion that the measure has been adopted without serious argumentation and research cannot be sustained. It is a red herring.

The original article appeared in the Economic Times.

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October 2, 2012

A time for gaffes

I was reminded of Edna O’Brien’s novel, August is a Wicked Month, when two scandals erupted last month – one, predictably, in the financial sector and the other, more surprisingly, in the journalistic sector.

BBC News (August 10) and Reuters (August 7) gave wide circulation to the scandal over the fixing of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), that underpins the nearly $350 trillion market in derivatives. While this lapse was not on the moral scale of Bernie Madoff’s classic rip-off of his clients, it did create waves of indignation and attendant condemnation simply because far too many financial firms and regulators had their hands dirtied.

It also reminded many of the time that Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs tried to laugh off his firm’s lapses by saying that his firm was “doing God’s work”. Perhaps the only way for him to have defended himself against the hostile merriment he provoked from American comedians such as Jon Stewart would have been to say that he had in mind the holy trinity of Indian mythology where Brahma was the creator, Vishnu the preserver and Shiva the destroyer, and that he was thinking of Shiva!

Then, in mid-August, journalism was rocked by the charge of plagiarism against prominent journalist Fareed Zakaria of CNN and Time. The scandal has now died down, as with the plagiarism of the distinguished historian Doris Kearns Goodwin earlier. But it cannot be entirely wiped away, and it has left many asking questions concerning journalistic ethics that will certainly be examined more fully by schools of journalism.

But after August, the Americans have opened the season on gaffes – by both Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama as the election reaches the final lap of an excruciating marathon. Gaffes are, of course, a regular feature of political life, and they multiply as politicians navigate the rapids of the election season. Thus, we remember, Joe Biden’s foolishly borrowing entire episodes from British politician Neil Kinnock. But the more famous one has to be Sarah Palin’s gaffe, as senator John McCain’s vice-presidential candidate, about being able to handle Russia because she could see it across the border from her home!

But US presidential candidate in 2004, John Kerry, topped them all when he said back then that firms that were outsourcing were Benedict Arnold’s. At first, i thought he must be complimenting these firms because i had never heard of Benedict Arnold and thought he must be an obscure English poet, a distant cousin of Matthew Arnold. Lo and behold: i soon discovered that Benedict Arnold was America’s greatest traitor!

He sounded like Lou Dobbs, the great scourge of outsourcers whose CNN show broadcast internationally was a farrago of attacks on the greed of corporations that outsourced. He is now gone, but President Obama has more than made up for Dobbs’s absence, so far with no price having to be paid for this lapse.

In fact, the president has been let off for many gaffes that no one else would have been forgiven. Buried from view have been his gaffes in pronouncing foreign names, often during state visits abroad and at home, which far exceed the tendency of American politicians in pronouncing foreign names; one shudders when even today, Iraq is pronounced as Airac.

When i spoke at the Indian Parliament a few days after he had, i was told that he had continued manhandling Indian names, as he had done earlier in Washington (where he also called Prime Minister Nehru, President Nehru once) and in Mumbai. A Japanese diplomat told me that he did the same with Japanese names.

By letting him off scot-free, the media does not serve him well. If not the serious media, the comedians should provide the corrective. For, these gaffes suggest an inherent lack of seriousness about international issues that, if left to fester, may well come to haunt the US and its friends and foes.

The original article appeared in Times of India.

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August 30, 2012

Unpublished riposte to Harold Evans

The distinguished journalist Harold Evans directs his reptilian fury at the Financial Times (August 27th) for a lapse from its “high standards in publishing my “venomous” column on Mr. Zakaria’s plagiarism. He hisses loudly but he fails to bite.

He forgets the elementary fact that Mr. Zakaria had confessed to plagiarism. No, there was no third degree applied by rogue cops. None of what Mr. Evans writes about who wrote what and retracted what charges they had made on the issue — his assertion that I could not have known all this is somewhat ludicrous — has any bearing on the fact that Mr. Zakaria was a self-confessed plagiarist.

The only questions were what penalty could and should follow. Since Mr. Zakaria was a journalist as also a man feted by universities with honorary degrees and even sitting as a member of the Yale Board of Trustees, the two issues had to be separated.

The penalties at universities are fairly severe, as I explained. If Mr. Evans doubts that, he should look up what is said on the subject by the University of Durham which he attended. The issue for universities then is clear: should they expect less from the people they honour and more from those whom they teach? I think this matter of equity is so important at universities that self-confessed plagiarists of high profile must be reprimanded, and even honours may possibly be withdrawn, unless our students become cynical about plagiarism.

As for journalism, which I do know something about as having been a founder of the influential Media specialization in the School of Public Affairs at Columbia (the role model for the changes made at our School of Journalism) and having taught with Sylvia Nasar at the School of Journalism, I am astonished by the lackadaisical approach taken by Mr. Evans to the question of standards in journalism.

He is also offended that I talk of “over-commitment” by Mr. Zakaria, a generous attempt to explain how his lapse could have occurred. He writes at the same time of exoneration by investigation by CNN and Time, of “thousands” of Mr. Zakaria’s columns (in an internal, not impartial third-party investigation that no one could take as compelling since these institutions’ profit motive would conflict with their principles.) I might ask: how many thousands? Mr. Evans might as well have written: hundreds of thousands!

Does Mr. Evans seriously believe that, with 24 hours in the day, Mr. Zakaria wrote “thousands” of columns, book reviews and his fine books, ran the GSP talk show, did specials on different issues and gave commencement speeches, and was not “over-committed”? Is he Superman?

More likely, he is a friend of Mr. Evans who shows a strange lapse of professional standards when he fails to mention that he is married to the celebrated Tina Brown who now runs the Daily Beast and Newsweek whose international edition was long edited by Mr. Zakaria. Has Mr. Evans heard of conflict of interest and the need for transparency? The Japanese have a tradition where, if a samurai commits harakiri by disemboweling himself, his best friend or chosen attendant will put him out of his agony by doing a kaishaku: cutting his head off. Mr. Evans instead tries to circle the wagons around his friend with absurd allegations of my indulging in the “full Nuremberg”. Mr. Evans must know that this is obnoxious and his abuse of his status in British journalism makes his behavior contemptible.

Jagdish Bhagwati

University Professor of Economics, Law & International Affairs, Columbia University

Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations

 

 

 

 

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August 21, 2012

Trading in Hate

The massacre in Norway in July 2011 and the recent attack on a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wisconsin, were the work of right-wing extremists who sought to remake the world in their neo-Nazi image. Likewise, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, were the work of Islamist extremists who view other religions and cultures as a threat. But it would be simplistic to believe that our leaders do not add fuel to the fire of hatred, even if their chauvinism takes a more “civilized” form.

Just ask the Japanese, who were continually denounced in the 1980’s as wicked traders. Or consider how the unceasing refrain against outsourcing nowadays has demonized India.

This is not new. Japan’s heavy burden of atrocities during World War II effectively erased from America’s popular memory the Immigration Act of 1924 and other federal legislation aimed at excluding the Japanese and the Chinese from the United States, as well as racist state legislation, such as California’s 1913 Alien Land Act. With the war’s outbreak, Americans of Japanese origin were expropriated and herded into concentration camps. California Attorney General Earl Warren championed the measures – the same Earl Warren, who, a decade later, as Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court, would oversee the rejection of the separate-but-equal doctrine at the heart of America’s segregation of its black citizens.

The anti-Japanese hysteria of the 1980’s fell on fertile ground. Many in the US feared that, just as the nineteenth century had been British and the twentieth century had been American, the twenty-first century would be Japanese. But, unlike the British or the Americans, the Japanese allegedly were gaining ground in nefarious ways, exporting aggressively to the US and unfairly excluding US exports from their domestic market.

Virtually every Japanese policy was interpreted in the worst possible light. The propaganda was bipartisan in the US, and, with few noteworthy exceptions, was widely disseminated by the country’s uncritical and pseudo-patriotic media. I recall the Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson – alongside John Maynard Keynes, arguably the greatest economist of his time – remarking that anti-Japanese propaganda had gone so far that Japan’s critics would argue that the Japanese bow in greeting Westerners to make it easier to cut them off at the knees.

The effect, particularly given a long history of anti-Japanese sentiment, was a predictable wave of racist violence, including the destruction of Japanese cars. The beating death of Vincent Chin, a Chinese-American who was mistaken for a Japanese, also resonated historically, recalling a pseudo-scientific article on how to distinguish the Chinese from the Japanese that Life magazine published in December 1941.

The Indian situation in the US today is different; there is no baggage of unpleasant memories on which prejudice and violence can draw. Yet, like a desert cactus, hate can thrive on very little.

Unfortunately, US President Barack Obama’s administration has continually harped on outsourcing to India as a cause of American job losses. Similarly, Senator Charles Schumer of New York has indulged in Japan-bashing, China-bashing, and India-bashing – a singular record of truculence and economic illiteracy – while Senator Barbara Boxer of California attacked her most recent electoral opponent, Carly Fiorina, for eliminating 30,000 jobs at Hewlett Packard during her stewardship of the company. In fact, in a highly competitive world, Hewlett-Packard managed to save 150,000 jobs by sacrificing those 30,000.

In the current presidential election campaign, the Democratic Party is attacking Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, on the same specious grounds, with a complacent media acquiescing in the Democrats’ de facto India-baiting.

The net result has been to fuel resentment against India that spills over into occasional violence. Groups calling themselves “dot-busters” have attacked Indian women. When I have written in favor of freer trade and liberal immigration, I have been denounced as a “curry nigger.”

Nor has the Obama administration helped matters by shifting the blame for the failure of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations onto India. Outside the US, it is well known that Obama himself pulled the plug on Doha. The notion that “we are open and others are closed,” a cherished belief of US politicians and media – and an article of faith with the current administration – also feeds the notion that countries like India are wicked traders, much like the Japanese in the 1980’s.

Much of the world expected more elevated behavior from Obama. Unfortunately, it has gotten a much lower standard than it anticipated.

The original article appeared on Project Syndicate.

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August 16, 2012

Plagiarism is more than an academic matter

Plagiarism is in the news. Fareed Zakaria, Time Magazine columnist and CNN television show host, was perhaps a predictable victim of overcommitment: there are only 24 hours in a day. It appears he overreached as he sought to grasp multiple topics outside his usual field, foreign policy. Plagiarism seemed to be an easy solution to the impossible demands on his time, as he tried to maintain “pundit” status.

His misfortune was to pilfer from Jill Lepore, a Harvard professor and a staff writer for The New Yorker, a magazine that all intellectuals read. The plagiarism was caught, however, not by the magazine (for intellectuals do not read Time, not even at the dentist) but by a blogger of little distinction.

How could such a lapse happen? Could Mr Zakaria not have called up Ms Lepore and discussed her views at first hand, as he used to do regularly with me?

The punishment will probably be to banish him from journalism, even though the profit motive is clearly prompting CNN and Time to test the waters by starting only with a “suspension”. Mr Zakaria is probably a cash cow for them. The Indian government will be under pressure to withdraw the prestigious Padma Bhushan award that was conferred on him as a distinguished Indian journalist. It is also certain that prestigious schools of journalism, such as the one at Columbia University (where I teach), will have no alternative but to keep plagiarists at a distance and condemn them.

But the unfortunate Zakaria case also raises the question of plagiarism in higher education. Universities have become victims of plagiarism by students in an age when there is free access to information and assignments can be written by simply copying huge chunks of text, even entire essays, from the internet.

Once difficult to perpetrate, plagiarism is now so easy that a university such as Columbia will explicitly warn incoming students of the dire consequences, such as expulsion, if a student is caught. In addition, we warn students that, if they steal from others, there is software that can unmask them. I can feed a paragraph, even a few sentences, into the computer and lo and behold it will tell you who wrote much the same thing earlier. I know of many instances where plagiarism has been exposed in this way.

But universities can do more to stamp out plagiarism. For example, since essays are the natural medium for plagiarism, a remedy that I find useful is to ensure that a fraction of the grade depends on multiple-choice examinations where one cannot steal or copy. This would not merely insulate a significant fraction of the grade from plagiarism. It would also suggest that, if a student fails the multiple choice but scores highly on the essay, the latter needs to be examined for plagiarism.

Universities should also ensure that big fish such as Mr Zakaria who are caught plagiarising are firmly dealt with: letting them off with a soft rap on the knuckles can only breed cynicism among students who are exhorted not to plagiarise. Withdrawal of honorary degrees and expulsion from boards of trustees are among the punishments that should be automatic once plagiarism has been acknowledged.

But the issue of plagiarism is not confined to students facing the pressures of examination and competitive performance. It has spread to faculty members where charges of plagiarism, sometimes far-fetched, sometimes accurate, have proliferated, reflecting the pressures of a “publish-or-perish” culture.

The pressures that can fuel plagiarism by the “superstars” in academia, however, are different, perhaps similar to those that felled Mr Zakaria. The need to write something that “catches the public eye” has for many become an obsession. The media is a playground for achieving celebrity academic status, which is pleasurable in itself but also leads to large lecturing fees. And so it leads to borrowing ideas without attribution.

I noticed it when a distinguished economist happened to take a concept of mine that I had written about many times. They used the idea in an article, without attribution. In that instance, I am happy to believe that it was an unwitting omission. But it illustrates what academics have to guard against with zealous scrupulousness. It can surely be done.

The original article appeared in Financial Times.

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July 24, 2012

Doha’s Retreat

Germans would be interested to know that Chancellor Angela Merkel teamed up in 2010 with British Prime Minister David Cameron (and, in turn, both brought on board the President of Indonesia and the Prime Minister of Turkey) to appoint an Independent Expert Group, co-chaired by me and former WTO Director General and EU Trade Commissioner Peter Sutherland, to help bring the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTN) to a close after nearly ten years of negotiations. She even turned up at Davos where we presented our Report and spoke emphatically in support of Doha, as did Mr. Cameron.

The joker in the pack, who was the kill joy rather than a source of merriment and support, was the United States. When I said that it was disappointing that President Obama had even omitted mentioning Doha in the State of the Union address, and that one could only hope that this was because he did not wish to mention a four-letter word to bring civility into American political discourse, many in the audience laughed, but not Senator John Kerry! In fact, the United States under the Obama Administration, already under siege from the labour unions who were hostile to trade, was resolutely opposed to closing the Doha Round unless numerous concessions were made to appease its business lobbies.

Thus, Obama administration wanted Doha Heavy: several demands for more concessions by others, especially the major developing countries, including new concessions in services, were to be negotiated. This meant, of course, that the conclusion of Doha would be put off by some years: Doha would then be dead for all practical purposes. So, many preferred to opt for Doha Lite: add a few concessions by the US and India on agriculture (which had earlier been a sticking point: the US concessions were inadequate and the Indian demands for special Safeguards were excessive), some minor concessions in manufactures that would appease difficult Congressmen in the US, and close the Round. The long laundry list of concessions demanded but not negotiated would then be handled by declaring a new Round of “unfinished agenda” just as the Doha Round could be seen as one, tantalizingly an Obama Round, addressing the “unfinished agenda” of the Uruguay Round. But this was roundly rejected by the US.

In the end, Pascal Lamy, the Director General of WTO and a Frenchman who is a freak phenomenon in being a socialist and a free trader, made a pitch to settle for just a few concessions for the 49 Least Developed Countries (LDCs). I called this Doha Lite and Decaffeinated, meaning just coloured water! A principal item here was the extension of one-way duty-free access to the LDCs. But the Europeans had already made this concession through the Everything But Arms initiative: and this was before the Doha Round was announced, so could not be counted as one of Doha concessions! So, the real concession was to be made by the US as part of the Doha Round. But the US insisted that even that concession would not be made except as part of Doha Heavy.

In short, the US killed Doha. Or at least put into Intensive Care. The WTO Ministerial in November 2011 ended without concluding Doha, in defiance of all the efforts that leading scholars and statesmen worldwide had been making in its behalf. The astonishing thing is that Doha was a multilateral-liberalization initiative; and ironically, it was killed by President Obama who had ironically been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize by Norway in the expectation that he would promote multilateralism and turn his back on US unilateralism!

There has been an attempt at preventing the finger being pointed at the US for this enormous setback. When Doha failed to be settled at the Cancun meeting of the WTO in 1993, Robert Zoellick, the US Trade Representative at the time, and even Lamy as the EU Trade Commissioner, did not hesitate to blame the developing countries who had refused to go along with inadequate concessions on agriculture. But who will point a finger at the US? One does not bark at a Rottweiler!

Yet, failure to do so means that the turning of what my great teacher Charles Kindleberger called an “altruistic hegemon” who provided a public good to the world, into what I have called a “selfish hegemon” which uses its pre-eminence to undermine a public good like the multilateral world trading system, will have passed without the public condemnation that alone can force it into better behavior.

Where does that leave us, however? There is great complacency that the fall of Doha is no cause for lament and that the WTO as the apex institution for trade will survive intact. It is as if loss of faith in Catholicism will not affect the Vatican. Doha has three legs: multilateral liberalization; framing of trading rules; and the Dispute Settlement Mechanism. The first is now broken. In turn, it cannot but break the other two.

With multilateral trade liberalization now almost abandoned, the world is now left exclusively to bilateral and “regional” Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). These were proliferating even earlier, creating a hugely chaotic pattern of preferences that I have called a “spaghetti bowl”. These were deplorable and the discrimination that they were founded on would have turned in their grave the grand multilateralists from the time of US Secretary Cordell Hull, who won the Nobel Peace Prize (among other things) for promoting multilateral free trade.

And now, the US, not content with killing Doha, is even promoting the regional PTA called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, compounding its folly twice over.

In the absence of MTNs like Doha, these PTAs will also become the arrangements where rules such as anti-dumping and subsidies codes will be set and will then be muscled into WTO at Geneva. Similarly, the Dispute Settlement Mechanism at the WTO, a proud achievement in 1995, will also be in danger of falling into disuse as bilateral and regional dispute settlement arrangements will take over: and where the hegemons will expect that this asymmetric power will get them more favourable adjudication. None of this is cause for celebration; rather it calls for lamentation.

But I cannot conclude without commenting on the different but related issue of Protectionism which relates, not to moving forward with liberalization but with preventing a falling back. When the crisis broke out almost four years ago, all trade scholars noted that the WTO had played a role in containing protectionism: it provided institutional obstacles to raising trade barriers freely unlike in the post-1929-Crash 1930s when no such institutional constraints were present. So had the role of ideas: few believed now that macroeconomic crises could be resolved by raising trade barriers. Structural changes also meant that retaliation was now easier and more likely.

The continuing crisis, and the destructive US undermining of Doha and hence of the WTO, have combined to make Protectionism now a more potent threat. The recent G20 meeting hardly focused on these threats, unlike in earlier meetings like the one in London with Prime Minister Gordon Brown presiding. Whether this is from indifference or complacency, it bodes ill for the world trading system.

The original article appeared in Handelsblatt.

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July 16, 2012

The Bell Tolls for India’s Congress Party

Politics in Asia’s two giants, India and China, has suddenly turned very uncertain. China remains in authoritarian mode, of course. But egregious human-rights violations and suppression of dissent are raising the specter of growing internal disruptions, particularly in the wake of purges within the top leadership.

By contrast, India, with its firmly rooted liberal democracy, smells to some like roses. But many believe that India, too, faces uncertain political prospects.

In particular, there is widespread belief in India today that one of the country’s two main political parties, the Indian National Congress, essentially run by Sonia Gandhi and her son, Rahul Gandhi, has now run its course and will sink into oblivion. According to The Economist: “The Congress Party…is in a funk” and “in danger of…long-term decline.”

But the Congress has been written off before: the article from The Economist was published in January 2003. Indeed, the uniform prediction prior to the 2004 election was that, after having lost three elections in a row, the Congress was heading for its fourth defeat and eventual dissolution. Yet it won that election, and then won a second parliamentary election in 2009.

Politics is, of course, full of reversals of fortune. But, unlike in 2004, it is unlikely, for several reasons, that the Congress can survive the dire predicament that it now faces today.

For starters, in 2004, the Congress was challenging an incumbent government that had served for six years. This time, the Congress has formed the incumbent government for two consecutive terms, and its tenure has recently been marked by scandals that have made it look ineffectual, rudderless, and corrupt. To make matters worse, India is experiencing a sharp economic slowdown, further undermining the Congress’s prospects in elections that must be held no later than June 2014.

Second, and more important, voter attitudes have shifted significantly during the past decade. Average annual economic growth of 8.5% over the eight-year period from 2003 to 2011 has led to a revolution of perceived possibilities. As the economists Poonam Gupta and Arvind Panagariya have demonstrated, voters in most Indian states now support leaders and parties that deliver good economic outcomes, and turn out those who do not. This marks a major shift from the fatalistic attitudes of the past, which generally helped incumbents, who benefited from voters’ belief that there was no real alternative to existing arrangements.

This voting behavior has been reinforced by recent examples of political failure and success. Brazenly corrupt leaders such as Kumari Mayawati of Uttar Pradesh and Digambar Kamat of Goa were each bundled out after one term. Meanwhile, positive role models like Nitish Kumar of Bihar, Narendra Modi of Gujarat, and Navin Patnaik of Orissa have all been returned to power as Chief Ministers at least once; all have delivered remarkable results while maintaining an unblemished record of personal integrity. The Congress will inevitably be under acute pressure to perform, as the electorate now knows that better performance is not beyond its grasp.

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination over two decades ago created a wave of sympathy for his widow, Sonia, on whose sari-tails the Congress won in 2004. Today, no such tragedy is likely to help the Congress. Sonia Gandhi is rumored to have cancer, but, rather than capitalizing on it, she has kept the details within the walls of the Gandhi family compound in New Delhi.

But the real problem is that brand-name politics is increasingly at a discount in India, much as it is in the United States. Like the Kennedy and Bush brands, the Nehru-Gandhi label has lost its luster in India.

That is partly a function of rapidly changing demographics. Individuals born after 1975 now account for a very large proportion of the electorate. For these voters, Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi are merely historical figures, and are a distant memory even for many voters born before 1975. It is not surprising that Rahul Gandhi proved unable to bring the Congress a victory in a recent election in a constituency that historically had been a bastion of support for his family.

Indeed, the Nehru-Gandhi condominium that has dominated Indian politics has itself undermined the party’s survival prospects by making it immensely difficult for it to recruit and develop new leaders. It is common knowledge that, for the last eight years, Sonia Gandhi has exercised virtually total control within the party. As a result, no rival to Rahul Gandhi has emerged.

With Sonia Gandhi in ill health, Rahul unable to connect to the electorate even in his historically “safe” constituency, and the Nehru-Gandhi brand name having lost its appeal, the prospects for the Congress in 2014 look bleak. Only the outcome will tell whether it can survive.

The original article appeared on Project Syndicate.

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June 28, 2012

Shaping India’s future: Abid Hussain will be remembered for his achievements in public life

The sudden death of Abid Hussain by a massive heart attack last Thursday, was a tragedy for his family. He was in London with his wife Karki (a woman of great charm and intellectual achievement) on way to Washington to be with his daughter Vishaka and died in his sleep, in keeping with the generosity of spirit that marked his life: he would not impose a long illness on his beloved family.

Many have written already about the prominent role he played as a public servant and as a public intellectual. There was little that he had not touched and transformed into success and there were few important positions which had not come his way, including membership of the Planning Commission at a time when the Commission was relevant to our economic policy making, and secretaryship in the commerce ministry. He had even been our ambassador to Washington during 1990-92, and left an indelible impact on the two countries’ relations at a critical time when they were on the cusp of change.

But, none of these enumerations do him justice. He must be remembered for the most compelling of his achievements; and these are twofold: his pioneering work on community development and his unwavering support for our economic reforms.

When i and current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh were together at St John’s College in Cambridge in the mid-1950s, we had shared aspirations to fulfill Jawaharlal Nehru’s call for a “tryst with destiny” by taking the Indian economy to dramatic improvement over the dismal record of nearly a quarter of a century of bad policies. As it happens, in a parallel which is remarkable, my friendship with Abid Hussain went back to over 50 years as well; and it remained very close also.

But it began differently; and here, i can also point to a unique achievement of Abid which has no parallel at all. I went as an OECD consultant to Ankara in 1962, to the Devlet Planlama Teskilati (the Turkish Planning Commission), to “advise” on economic policy. Wherever i went, i was asked if i was Abid Hussain. I naturally said: No. But then i discovered that Abid was an icon in Turkey. So, i started saying: Yes. I began to be treated much better!

Why was he an icon? The reason was that he was helping Turkey with setting up its community development program, seeking to lift up the rural communities. Abid had been a pioneer in our own community development programs. It is a sad commentary that today we make much of “new kids on the block” like my colleague Jeffrey Sachs with his village projects which are mostly hype, even ignoring his dramatic failures as with shock therapy in Russia. Instead we need to honor our hero Abid.

But Abid’s other principal achievement, for which the nation must honor him, is that, along with the prime minister, he was the one, unwavering proponent of our reforms. He was resolutely, but politely, against the extensive proliferation of senseless regulations and controls: he had seen it at first hand in the commerce assignment. He loved the witticism that the problem in India was that Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was nowhere to be seen. He matched it with his own wit as when, told by an American friend that immigrant Indians were of great benefit to America, he wisecracked: make sure, however, not to get them into your bureaucracy!

Like the prime minister, he had arrived at the realization that India’s future, both in terms of prosperity and poverty reduction, required economic reforms. And he worked tirelessly to translate that understanding into policy. When the full story of our reforms is written, Abid will share the glory with the prime minister as a hero of our historic transformation.

The original article appeared in Times of India.

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June 24, 2012

Rio’s Unsustainable Nonsense

If George Orwell were alive today, he would be irritated, and then shocked, by the cynical way in which every lobby with an axe to grind and money to burn has hitched its wagon to the alluring phrase “sustainable development.” In fact, the United Nations’ Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development is about pet projects of all and sundry – many of them tangential to the major environmental issues, such as climate change, that were the principal legacy of the original Rio Earth Summit.

Thus, the International Labor Organization and trade-union lobbies have managed to insert “Decent Jobs” into the seven priority areas at the Rio conference. I would love for everyone, everywhere, to have a decent job. But what does that have to do with either the environment or “sustainability?”

No one should pretend that we can magically offer decent jobs to the huge numbers of impoverished but aspiring workers in the informal sector. Such jobs can only be created by adopting appropriate economic policies. Indeed, the really pressing task facing many developing economies is to pursue policies that promote economic opportunities by accelerating growth.

The flavor of the week in Rio is “sustainability indexing” for corporations, by way of corporate social responsibility (CSR). Such indexing is being compared to accounting standards. But the latter are “technical” and gain from standardization; the former are not and must reflect variety instead.

Corporations can, of course, be asked to conform to a “don’t” list – don’t dump mercury into rivers, don’t employ children for hazardous tasks, etc. But what they practice as “do’s” by way of altruism is surely a matter of what they consider virtuous to spend their money on.

The notion that a self-appointed set of activists, in conjunction with some governments and international agencies, can determine what a corporation should do by way of CSR contradicts the liberal notion that we should ask for virtue to be pursued, but not in a particular way. At a time when the world is emphasizing the importance of diversity and tolerance, it is effrontery to suggest that corporations should standardize their notion of how they wish to promote good in the world.

Even when the Rio+20 agenda includes something more properly “environmental” – say, the supply of water – platitudes predominate. Thus, the availability of safe drinking water is now to be enshrined as a “right.” We have traditionally distinguished in human-rights conventions between (mandatory) civil and political rights, such as the right to habeas corpus, from (aspirational) economic rights, because the latter require resources. Blurring that distinction – thereby disregarding the problem of scarcity – is no solution.

After all, “availability” can be interpreted according to many criteria and thus in myriad ways: How much water? At what distance from different households (or by pipe into each house)? At what cost? These decisions have different implications for the availability of water, and they must compete, in any event, against other “rights” and resource uses.

In the end, therefore, water availability cannot properly be called a “right.” Rather, it is a “priority,” and countries will inevitably differ in the sequence with which they pursue it relative to others.

While these are “sins of commission,” the “sins of omission” at Rio+20 are even more glaring. For a conference that is supposedly addressing “sustainability,” it is worth lamenting the absence of a heroic effort to agree on a successor treaty to the Kyoto Accord.

If the cataclysmic scenarios implied by neglect of climate change are valid – and extreme estimates, it must be said, could backfire politically by looking implausible or, worse, by producing a “Nero effect” (if Rome is burning, let’s party) – Rio+20’s lack of action should be regarded as an historic failure.

But a matching omission is that prompted by our societies’ increasing political unsustainability, not because of the immediate financial problems like those afflicting Europe and threatening the world, but because the modern media have made visible to all the disparities in the fortunes of the rich and the poor. The rich should be urged not to flaunt their wealth: extravagance amid much poverty arouses wrath.

The poor, meanwhile, need a fair shot at raising their incomes. That can only come through access to education and economic opportunity, both in poor and rich countries.

“Less Excess and More Access”: only a policy mix based on this credo will guarantee that our societies remain viable and achieve genuine “sustainability.”

The original article appeared on Project Syndicate.

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June 6, 2012

Reasons to be optimistic about India’s economy

From Prof Jagdish Bhagwati and Prof Arvind Panagariya.

Sir, In India, cricket fans know that the Indian team tends to collapse after a mere one or two wickets have fallen. The same phenomenon seems to afflict observers of India’s economy. After a decline by 2 percentage points in the last three quarters, ending March 31, they are in panic and predict continued decline (“Economists cut India growth forecast”, FT.com, May 26), some even suggesting that the “I” from Brics should now stand for Indonesia. But they could not be more wrong.

The growth rate has indeed fallen from 8.4 per cent in (fiscal year) 2010-11 to 6.5 per cent in 2011-12. But the decline is to be explained by two essentially short-term factors. Thirteen consecutive rises in the interest rate have come from India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, the latest as recently as October 2011.

Moreover, there is a policy paralysis, which began with the environment minister denying clearance to many projects nationwide. More importantly, this was reinforced by virtually every central ministry freezing up prudentially in response to an outbreak of corruption scandals.

The RBI has now begun to ease up. Moreover, there is good reason to believe that the paralysis will thaw: the recent electoral reverses of the Congress party are already prompting some members publicly to disown their earlier opposition to key reforms, such as in the retail sector.

The anti-corruption demonstrators in India also welcome more, not fewer, reforms since they recognise that the corruption stems from lack of extension of market-oriented reforms to new areas such as telecoms.

Perhaps the main reason to be optimistic on India is that virtually all the reforms introduced under prime ministers Narasimha Rao and Atal Behari Vajpayee, which raised the growth rate to 8-9 per cent, remain in place: policy paralysis has not meant policy reversals. Besides, the savings rate remains above 30 per cent of gross domestic product; and the earlier reforms-led productivity rise should continue to assure gains from these savings.Caveat emptor.

The original article appeared in Financial Times.

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