Predictions, 2013
Yet another risky exercise in speculative prognostication
Year’s end prediction columns are always problematic: my last one wasn’t all that accurate, as it turned out. I was dead wrong on the Big One — war with Iran, to which I assigned a 65 percent probability. This year, however, it looks as if the issue — like a huge, festering boil — is coming to a head. Others seem to agree.
One reason I’ve been pushing the nomination of Chuck Hagel to head up the Pentagon is that this trial balloon is clearly a signal of President Obama’s reluctance to start yet another war in the Middle East — one that could easily morph into a regional conflict, or even a world war. The economic consequences of bombing Iran would be a deterrent to any President, especially one trying to dig us out of the economic hole his domestic policies have exacerbated.
Related to this is the ongoing civil war in Syria, which is in reality a proxy war between America’s allies in the Gulf and Tehran. Here it looks like Bashar al-Assad’s days are numbered, and it’s only a matter of time — and not much time, at that — before the Ba’athist regime falls. The likely result: the Lebanon-ization of the country, which means the de facto break-up of the Syrian state, with the country’s many ethnic and religious factions each establishing their own enclaves. Which means: continued fighting, and the increased possibility of increased Iranian intervention on behalf of their beleaguered allies. This will set up a tripwire for open conflict between Iran and the West.
What’s interesting about this is how the “international community” will respond. My prediction: some kind of international force, under UN auspices, will “police” the remnants of the old Syria, possibly including Turkish, Jordanian, and Qatari forces (no Americans, however).
The big change, I believe, will come about in regard to Israel: everyone can see the Israelis are moving rapidly in the direction of an ugly ultra-nationalism, and the Israeli government that comes out of the elections at the end of January will no doubt be the most right-wing to date.
However, that isn’t really news. The real news is the world’s reaction to this ominous development, both in the US and Europe: increasing revulsion. With 60,000 refugees from Africa locked up in what are effectively concentration camps, and the most revolting anti-black racism coming from “mainstream” Israeli politicians on this explosive issue, the world will witness the spectacle of Israel increasingly coming to resemble the deep South in the days of George Wallace and Bull Connor. Aside from alienating the world community in general, this horrific trend will also put yet more distance between Israel and their most important international constituency: American Jews.
I’m stealing this next prediction from Ahmed Moor over at “Open Zion,” who writes: “Next year, the Swiss, French and Palestinians are going to provide unimpeachable evidence that Yasser Arafat was assassinated by someone with access to Israeli polonium.”
Actually, I wrote about this back in July, but now that Arafat’s remains have been exhumed and are being analyzed by reputable scientists, we may have an answer to the mystery of just what (or who) killed the Palestinian leader in short order. What’s interesting, to me at any rate, is that the pro-Israeli “spin” campaign is already in motion, with most recent articles on the subject downplaying the possibility of poisoning (without confronting or in any way refuting the Al Jazeera investigation, which revealed the polonium factor in the first place). Time inexplicably avers the conclusion to be drawn from the investigation “is not a matter of science.” But of course it is: if polonium poisoning is the diagnosis, then that leaves only a few countries where the assassins could’ve procured it — the US, Russia, and Israel. The question of which of these had reason to assassinate Arafat answers itself.
What this means is not good for the “peace process”: the news could trigger a new intifada, and play directly into the hands of all the most radical nut-jobs in the region — not only Hamas, but also the Naftali Bennetts of Israel, who are looking for an excuse — any excuse — to annex most of the West Bank and establish their crackpot dream of a Greater Israel.
My predictions for 2012 were actually quite on the mark when it comes to the issue of America’s relations with Russia: I gave a 99 percent probability to the notion that the relationship would go further downhill, and with the passage of the ill-conceived Magnitsky Act, and the Russian ban on American adoptions, it looks like I was right.
On the other hand, my crystal ball fogged up a bit when it came to predicting the trajectory of the “Arab Spring.” True, I was right about the triumph of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt — which didn’t exactly require Nostradamus-like foresight — but was only partially right about Morocco, where a combination of repression and concessions tamped down protests, and Jordan, where the movement has yet to attain the kind of heft required to overthrow the monarchy.
I was off the mark with my prediction that “a high-profile ‘incident’ involving US spy ships or military aircraft and the Chinese in or near the South China Sea will set off another round of China-bashing in the US.” While it’s true that we were indeed subjected to a veritable orgy of China-bashing in 2012, it wasn’t due to any such “high profile incident” — it was, instead, occasioned by a high profile election, in which both candidates for President used China as a convenient punching bag and did their best to blame the Yellow Peril for problems created right here in the good ol’ US of A.
Which just goes to show that the art of successful prediction requires the artist to be as vague as possible.
I was dead right, however, when I predicted (at 85 percent probability) “the rebirth of Al-Qaeda,” with a special focus on Africa. Benghazi, anyone?
What’s interesting, however, is that this rebirth is largely the result of “blowback” from US policy in the region. Our deepening involvement in Africa, our support to the Libyan jihadists who then turned on us, and our ongoing support for the Syrian rebels — all this points to the lesson we didn’t learn in Afghanistan. When Ronald Reagan hailed the Afghan jihadists as noble “freedom-fighters” in their battle against the commies, and we armed them with heavy weaponry, we created a large pool of jihadists out of which sprang the monstrous Al-Qaeda. That the process is repeating itself in Libya and Syria is yet more proof that our “progressive” policymakers are heedless — even disdainful — of the lessons of history. When it comes to American foreign policy, hubris knows no party.
Another prediction for 2012 that was right on the money:
“The only antiwar presidential candidate will be continuously smeared, demonized, and eventually driven out of the GOP by the party Establishment.”
This is precisely what happened: Ron Paul was subjected to a campaign of calumny very similar, in tone and content, to the smear campaign now aimed at Chuck Hagel. At the end of it, they deprived the Paul campaign of delegates fairly won, and took administrative measures to ensure the Paulian insurgency would never rise again. Although my own hopes for a third party run came to naught, I was right in the general sense that the growing anti-interventionist/libertarian wing of the GOP would become totally alienated from the neocon-run Establishment. If Romney had done the smart thing and courted the Paulians, instead of crushing them, a good number of the millions of primary voters who pulled the lever for Paul might not have sat on their hands Election Day. But then again, I was right about Romney, too — he never wanted to be President, as one of his sons has now testified. The Republicans threw the election — just as I said they would.
Okay, Mr. Smart Guy, so you told us so — feel better now? (Here I am talking to myself, and in public yet: do I need a vacation, or what?!)
Well, yes, I do feel better, but not because of any imagined smartness on my part: I’ll leave my readers to decide that question on their own. I feel better because years of writing, of organizing, of fundraising, is finally beginning to pay off.
Since 1998, we here at Antiwar.com have been warning Americans against the hubris of those policymakers who believe they can direct the course of distant nations: we’ve been challenging the bipartisan interventionist consensus, and exposing the various lobbying groups that have made that consensus nearly invulnerable to attack. Now it looks like those millions of words, and many thousands of working hours, are finally bearing some fruit.
On “Meet the Press” this morning, the President of the United States defended Chuck Hagel against the War Party’s coordinated smear campaign, and confirmed his nomination as Secretary of Defense is still under consideration, although no decision has been made. In view of the ferocious assault on Hagel launched by the Israel lobby and its useful idiots (hello, Log Cabineers!), these comments are significant, especially for a President with a notable lack of spine.
I won’t venture any specific prediction as to the outcome of all this — although I’ll note Malcolm Hoenlein’s prediction that an announcement of Hagel’s nomination will be made on Monday. However, it is worth pointing out that this episode marks a big defeat for the Israel lobby — and the larger militarist community — no matter what the President decides. The public debate over his possible nomination has drawn a clear line of demarcation between the Israel lobby and much of the rest of the foreign policy commentariat, isolating the former and expanding the influence of those who oppose our long march to war with Iran. It has also proved to be an invaluable educational experience for ordinary Americans, who would not normally pay attention to such matters, but who wonder why an enlisted man with two Purple Hearts and a history of skepticism about two wars they overwhelming oppose is having such a hard time of it.
While we don’t have a lot of time — the announcement is going to be made one way or the other pretty soon, I would think — it’s still vitally important for you to sign the White House petition in support of Hagel. As of this very moment (10:15 Sunday morning), we have 2, 305 signatures! If we can just get those numbers up a little, it would help greatly: I’ll bet the White House is monitoring this effort, as well as a similar effort by VoteVets. So please, go here now and sign.
I’ll make another prediction, and it is this: if Hagel is nominated, it will be the bloodiest — and most significant — fight over the future of American foreign policy this country has seen since the Vietnam era. And the White House petition in support of Hagel will be even more relevant to the outcome of that fight. The War Party is going to fight this one to the death: we, on the other hand, cannot afford to be less determined. Because what the debate will quickly turn into is a dress rehearsal for the congressional vote on whether or not to go to war with Iran. Indeed, this will put the whole campaign to isolate and destroy Iran on trial in the public square: abstention on our part is not an option.
To all those who supported us in 2012, and to the thousands of new regular readers we’ve acquired, a big thanks is due. We here at Antiwar.com labor every day to keep your confidence and earn your support, both moral and financial. Let us look to the coming year with confidence, yet without illusions: it’s going to be a hard fight, but then again that makes it all the more worth winning.
NOTES IN THE MARGIN
You can follow me on Twitter here.
Here is the link for buying the second edition of my 1993 book, Reclaiming the American Right: The Lost Legacy of the Conservative Movement, with an Introduction by Prof. George W. Carey, a Forward by Patrick J. Buchanan, and critical essays by Scott Richert and David Gordon.
Buy my biography of the great libertarian thinker, An Enemy of the State: The Life of Murray N. Rothbard, here.
Scheduling note: I’ll be off on January 1, so that means no column the next day – unless, of course, Something Big occurs. I’ll be back on Friday.
Read more by Justin Raimondo
- It’s Not All About Israel – January 3rd, 2013
- Naftali Bennett: The David Duke of Israel – December 27th, 2012
- A Christmas Message – December 25th, 2012
- The Crucifixion of Chuck Hagel – December 23rd, 2012
- Why This Fight – December 20th, 2012
Predictions, 2013 - Unofficial Network
December 30th, 2012 at 11:06 pm
[...] View original article. [...]
R.C.
December 31st, 2012 at 12:11 am
Well Justin, I disagree with you on Syria. Patrick Cockburn and others have refuted the notion that Assad's regime is crumbling or near collapse –it's apparently mostly smoke and mirrors thanks to youtube and the international media trumpting every rebel "advance" and low level defection as fact (only to later discover that the Syrian army halted the "advance" and took back that base/town). Until the Assad government begins losing major cities or towns (not the small desert enclaves in the north near the Turkish border), I don't think he's going anywhere anytime soon. I think the only way that he will fall is if NATO carries out an air campaign as they did in Libya – and even that air campaign went on for 7-8 months in a country of 5 million with a military a fraction the size of Syria's.
The war in Syria will be a long bloody one. The Chinese and Russians won't budge in the Security Council, so the rebels will be on their own.
Marcy B
December 31st, 2012 at 12:33 am
No reason to comment any prediction yet but one:
President Bashar Al-Assad of Syria. Two years of western israeli aggression and counting. France and England has been predicated his "any time now" departure practically every month while governmental forces are winning ground and the NATO mercenaries, flooding in like Orc´s, are loosing theirs. If they ever had any limited support before, it´s definitely gone now. Winning hearts and minds by terrorizing, stealing, rapeing and chopping off heads at random isn´t exactly a winning strategy and no Syrian would lake hard core Sharia laws either.
The popular support lies with the president. No government could have gone on for two years fighting off mercenary thugs without it. The alternative is, beside the destruction of their beautiful and ancient country, obvious for every Syrian to see ,Libya. No. The promised reforms will take place as promised, the rest of the free non-anglo-american-zionist world, most notably Russia and China sees that their borders are protected from direct intervention and the Syrians seems good with that. I recommend Thierry Meyssan take on this: http://www.voltairenet.org/article177011.html
Tim
December 31st, 2012 at 2:28 am
Israel, who is my least favorite nation on this planet, has every legitimate and justified right to not allow their nation to be invaded and colonized by millions of 'refugees' from Africa, or refugees from
any other nation, for that matter.
This is the kind of brainless, left wing stupidity that should be made into a capital offense. Every founding people of every sovereign nation on this planet have a legitimate right to have exclusive control over who they decide to allow or not allow to reside inside their nation's borders. This is no different than some liberal idiot telling a homeowner that he or she has no right to determine who is allowed to enter their home and plop their parasitic hind parts down and begin to consume the resources that are earned for the family who owns the home.
A nation that allows itself to be overrun by aliens will soon no longer be a nation. You know, Justin. Like this experiment in White Western European Civilization that your ethnic pals decided to destroy with their 1965 anti-White, White Genocide immigration legislation.
Mark
December 31st, 2012 at 4:21 am
Tim,
You should step back and look at what you wrote. You have inverted the concept of Private Property and accepted a collectivist view of Nations and those that would live there. If a country respects the private property holdings of those that live within its borders, and does not engage in socialist/collectivist models for things like education, medicine and charity, the idea of people coming to live there is not a problem. The problems occur when the government thinks IT and IT ALONE owns everything such as the U.S. (see the Kelo Decision) and forces people into socialist/collectivist systems that Rob Peter to Pay Paul. The Civil Rights Act was wrong not because it overthrew the Jim Crow era but, because it FORCED people to associate and tried to correct PAST wrongs by punishing those in the present. It didn't rely on property rights and freedom but, commands from Government Bureaucrats to accomplish the alleged goal of equality.
sherban
December 31st, 2012 at 4:44 am
The problem with Israel is that she has a permanent propaganda against racism and how much the Jews suffered in history and especially in Europe and especially in the modern history.Now when Israel has high standard of life obviously higher than Europe had when wars decimated and ruined all European countries Israel government with support of Israeli public has the cruelest policy regarding refugees from Africa (maybe they are coming in Israel because they believe in Israel propaganda that Israel is a liberal,anti racist country).So maybe they have the "right" to behave so but then to stop lament and accuse others who used the same right.It is Israeli propagandists who mark now that Europe and US (how pamella teaches) are in a danger to lose their "cultural character" because the foreigners and especially Muslims live there.
sherban
December 31st, 2012 at 4:51 am
I would make a wager:if Hagel will be the secretary of "defense" US policy will be the same.
sherban
December 31st, 2012 at 6:01 am
Seems that the petitions have effect:"White House to announce Hagel nomination shortly, Republican Jewish Coalition reports
Dec 30, 2012 10:06 am | Philip Weiss
Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, just tweeted the following:
Jewish leaders are starting to say they have been called by WH that Hagel nomination is a done deal. Announcement shortly."(from mondoweiss)
John V. Walsh
December 31st, 2012 at 6:43 am
Unfortunately, I must agree with Sherban, just above.
It can be argued that the US is trying to finish its agenda in the Middle East and northern Africa as quickly as possible to pirouette to East Asia and slap down China, its only serious competitor for the world's most powerful nation. There is almost a palpable sense of panic on the part of the US Empire in its haste. By 2020, the year China has set itself the goal of becoming a "moderately prosperous nation," it may be too late. By 2030 when China will have outdistanced the US or have surpassed it, it will certainly be too late. That will be the end of our evil Empire, and America will come home because it has to.
In the panic to get the job done in the Middle East and even more so in the assault on China (and Russia) lie the real seeds of world war and conflagration.
Hagel's nomination is worth fighting for because it will weaken the lobby for the Apartheid Jewish State. But to change the major currents of US foreign policy will require a movement of the sort Ron Paul embodies. Otherwise we risk a world war.
csmallo
December 31st, 2012 at 6:59 am
Culture matters. Allowing the culture to be diluted by hordes of invading 3rd world savages will only hurt freedom and liberty.
omop
December 31st, 2012 at 7:27 am
Predictions, predictions are alike to those who think life is a tragedy, and a comedy to those who feel or is it all a combo?
Be that as it may. My predictions is Al Queda and the Muslim Brotherhood, both financed and [mis] directed by the USA will continue to expand. And for better or for worse Israeli firsters in the 50 states will encounter opposition to their dual allegiances.
Africa is the future battleground.
Have a Happy New Year Mr. R and the rest of us prognosticators.
richard vajs
December 31st, 2012 at 7:37 am
Happy New Year, Justin – you perform a very useful and brave service and I appreciate it. Stay well!
My predictions:
1. Israel is becoming a monster country – they will destroy themselves. Decent people will no longer live there or support it.
2. Once Israel is gone, the Mid East will progress and the inherent humanity of Islam will help "civilize" the World.
3. America will undergo an upheaval and the inequality of capitalism will be choked out – we will be too preoccupied to mess with China, Russia or Iran. Our marvelous military may lie in rust, but our temporary pain will be the World's gain.
Mark
December 31st, 2012 at 8:07 am
If people decide to move to a country for the Liberty and respect for property rights it offers, why would they want to change it and destroy the reason they came? Conversely, if people come for the socialist benefits why shouldn't they want more of the same? Your issue seems to be with the socialist tendencies of the United States and other countries. If so, why not work to eliminate the socialist "bait" that attracts those that love socialism?
The real problem is the culture of the U.S. is one of Progressive Socialism and that includes all the welfare programs such as Aid To Dependent Munitions Manufacturers and Criminal Justice [sic] System Full Employment Bills, a.k.a. Drug Prohibition Laws
csmallo
December 31st, 2012 at 9:14 am
This socialism we have now was brought here by immigrants, namely the dregs of Europe that came here after the failed Communist revolutions of 1848. My issue is with the traditional Anglo Saxon culture of our founding being pushed out in favor of alien cultures. We should have ended immigration in 1820.
My issue is with the culture of the peon and the El Jeffe. My issue is with the culture of the 3rd world being brought to the United States.
Not everything is about money. Language, culture and religion are just as important. You may want to live in a 3rd world hellhole, but I do not.
paulBass
December 31st, 2012 at 10:07 am
"Every founding people of every sovereign nation on this planet have a legitimate right to have exclusive control over who they decide to allow or not allow to reside inside their nation's borders."
the right of the conquers.
your message to mexican immigrants is this.
don't bother trying to come and find a job and start a family
grab your rifle and assert your sovereignty
Tim
December 31st, 2012 at 10:16 am
The concept of 'nation' itself, and the definition of a what constitutes a 'nation', per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation is:
"A nation may refer to a community of people who share a common language, culture, ethnicity, descent, or history.[1] In this definition, a nation has no physical borders. However, it can also refer to people who share a common territory and government (for example the inhabitants of a sovereign state) irrespective of their ethnic make-up."
Or, here is the twisted viewpoint of the biggest mass murdering monster of the last century, concerning how he defined a nation:
"According to Joseph Stalin writing in 1913 in Marxism and the National Question: "a nation is not a racial or tribal, but a historically constituted community of people;" "a nation is not a casual or ephemeral conglomeration, but a stable community of people"; "a common language is one of the characteristic features of a nation"; "a nation is formed only as a result of lengthy and systematic intercourse, as a result of people living together generation after generation"; "a common territory is one of the characteristic features of a nation"; "a common economic life, economic cohesion, is one of the characteristic features of a nation"; "a common psychological make-up, which manifests itself in a common culture, is one of the characteristic features of a nation"; "A nation is a historically constituted, stable community of people, formed on the basis of a common language, territory, economic life, and psychological make-up manifested in a common culture."[4]"
Hence, when I step back – as you asked me to – and look at what YOU wrote, it appears to me that you prefer and sympathize with Joe Stalin's definition, and this was a man who was a mass murdering, Communist, Utopian minded monster.
Sorry, Mark. I go with original definition. The traditional definition, because that is the correct definition.
Csmallo is right. Culture is a critical and essential ingredient and perhaps the most important characteristic that determines and strengthens the stability, social cohesion, growth and prosperity of a nation – and culture is simply a reflection of the dominant race gone to seed.
paulBass
December 31st, 2012 at 10:17 am
freedom and liberty, the free and unrestricted movement of capital, goods and services. but you people better keep your ass in the fields and don't come here.
Mark
December 31st, 2012 at 10:52 am
So, the culture that allowed slavery should not have been changed? A la pre-1820 America?
Stasis is not an option and culture ebbs and flows. This is not to say there are not universal Truths such as self-ownership.
And that doesn't make me a Stalinist
RickR30
December 31st, 2012 at 11:39 am
It's going to be an interesting year for sure. Is the Obama regime growing some gonads vis-a-vis it's "special relationship" with the racist israelis, a relationship that for decades meant that the US was the official catamite? Regardless what the WH does, it's clear on whose side Congress is: anyone but the US.
The move toward outright racism as national policy in israel is odd. Since usually israel's politics have aped US politics. With liberals in power in the US, israel at least pretends to moderate itself. With tyrants like W in power, the israelis completely lost it. If Obama becomes reasonable suddenly while the israelis become genocidal would be rare occasion where there is some "daylight" between these two asymetric lovers.
There will be 1 or 2 wars by israel against Palestine. 1 of them will be around Christmas.
I still predict there won't be a Hagel nomination. And if there is one, he won't become Secretary.
Assad's government will continue t survive the daily onslaught of the West's financed and supported terrorists. Whether he accepts some graceful exit courtesy of the UN is another issue.
If Obama recedes a fraction of an inch from the Warror of Terror, we could see some glimpse of a slightly more peaceful time after more than a decade of war of all against all.
Could this year be the year of the Big One? The big financial meltdown? Or will the dollar continue to be propped up artificially while the 1% steal everything they can.
I predict with 100% certainty a grim year for American's liberties. Doesn't the NSA spy machine go online in 2013? And no Jim Caviezel and Mr. Finch to save us. The US and israeli governments will know everything you do. Perhaps in 2014 we'll start seeing repression and oppression based on your opinion and thoughts.
The Supreme Court will continue to make stupid decisions that go against everything this country stands for.
There will be more gun control and perhaps more of these suspicious lone gunman shootings.
wars r u.s.
December 31st, 2012 at 11:41 am
Maybe so, but it would still be a step in the right direction. He did say he was a US senator and not an israeli senator. That alone does it for me since no one else has the balls to say that.
R.C.
December 31st, 2012 at 12:20 pm
The west seriously miscalculated when they thought Syria would be Libya all over again. To make matters worse, look at how Libya has turned out after its "liberation!" What worries me, is that they've already recognized an unelected council of stooges who reside outside of the country as "the offical representatives of the Syrian people," the west will look awfully bad if their terrorists flocking into the country can't win. What will they do to save face? They probably will need a damn good excuse to buck China & Russia and rush in and invade, but how will China & Russia react to a blatant disregard for the security council? perhaps the rebels will give them the excuse they need by setting off or employing their own chemical stockpile looted from Libya in a spectacualr attack of some sort that can be pinned on Assad. As we know, the west is eager to literally pin ANYTHING on Assad, even the rebels own car-bombings!?!?
Jaime
December 31st, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Why do you feel the need to use words such as "idiot", "parasitic", "stupidity" and so on to make your point?
Xxx
December 31st, 2012 at 12:35 pm
According to your logic, your ancestors would not have emigrated to the US, or are you of sioux, apache or navajo descent?
Hellbound Syria and I, Oops, US « elcidharth
December 31st, 2012 at 12:58 pm
[...] Predictions, 2013Justin Raimondo prognosticatesWishing for War With Iran in 2013The usual suspects are at it again, warns M. Sahimi [...]
Syria on my mind : : वसुधैव कुटुंबकम
December 31st, 2012 at 12:59 pm
[...] Predictions, 2013Justin Raimondo prognosticatesWishing for War With Iran in 2013The usual suspects are at it again, warns M. SahimiWe Need Straight Talk From Defense Dept.We haven’t had it in 60 years, says William Pfaff [...]
woodlandsguy
December 31st, 2012 at 1:25 pm
One important demographic change in America that no one is talking about is the passing of the New Deal/WWII generation, the self-styled Greatest Generation. The passing of this generation is of immense importance. This generation grew up worshiping Franklin Roosevelt and obeying his every command. They were the backbone of big government in America, they blindly supported the New Deal, and they worked assiduously to spread the gospel that WWII was a manichean struggle between the forces of light (represented by FDR and Winston Churchill) and the forces of darkness. Now that this generation is about gone, younger Americans no longer have them around to tell them what to think, which means that Americans are starting to think for themselves. My hunch all along has been that big government would not long survive the passing of the WWII generation. I see no reason to change my forecast now. Admittedly on the surface government is getting bigger and more intrusive, but big government is headed for a big fall, and soon.
RickR30
December 31st, 2012 at 2:03 pm
A good development but one that isn't happening fast enough. Congress and DC continue to be filled with these spineless mummies who'll sell their own grand grand children for a buck if they could.
mann
December 31st, 2012 at 2:16 pm
People born in a "country" built upon the bones of 50 million genocided natives shouldn´t talk so much.
If you want to do something right start with their descendants you still holds in poverty and misery in small reservations. Their deaths wasn´t enough, the killing continued the minute you crossed your self proclaimed "borders" and we follow your trail of death and destruction around the globe in your occupied forts and camps every day. We non-anglo-americans with a history of our own are all Indians now. happy new year…
Richard Steven Hack
December 31st, 2012 at 8:06 pm
"clearly a signal of President Obama’s reluctance to start yet another war in the Middle East"
No, it is NOT. Obama is fully on board with a war with Iran. He just doesn't want to be BLAMED for it. So instead of unilaterally attacking, he is pushing his sanctions regime hoping that Iran will retaliate in some way that will "justify" a US attack. So far Iran has been too cautious and too resilient to enable that.
However, once the Syrian situation is resolved by a US/NATO/Turkey/Israel attack – and once Israel attacks Hizballah in Lebanon to degrade its missile arsenal – which is the point of the Syrian crisis – Obama will probably initiate a naval blockade of Iranian ships leaving the Persian Gulf. Obama will spin this "act of war" as an "extension" to the unilateral sanctions regime.
The point of the unilateral sanctions regime has been to pressure Iran into doing something stupid. So far Iran has not done so. But a naval blockade preventing Iran from shipping oil anywhere – not just not getting new orders for oil – will force Iran to retaliate in some major way, probably by closing the Strait of Hormuz to other nation's oil shipments. This will trigger the war.
But it won't happen in 2013, or at least not in the first half, because it will take months to set up and resolve the attack on Syria and Lebanon. Once Syria is dealt with, Israel can handle Lebanon on its own. But US and NATO military assets will need to be replenished for the Iran war. So it is unlikely that an Iran war will occur in 2013.
2014, on the other hand, is very likely.
Assad's days ARE numbered, but not because of the insurgents. It is quite clear that neither side can win and absent a foreign military intervention neither side will win. However, a foreign military intervention is absolutely in the cards because the Iran war can't start without it. The whole point of the Syria crisis has been to enable the West to eliminate Syria and Hizballah from being effective actors in an Iran war. It's ALL about Israel's desire for a "cheap war" with Iran.
This has been a very calculated, cynical plan from the beginning. The proof is in two facts: 1) the 2006 Israel attempt to destroy Hizballah; and 2) the fact that the US and NATO have REPEATEDLY tried to get UN Charter Chapter 7 language in every Syrian resolution they proposed to authorize a US/NATO attack on Syria.
M Mir
December 31st, 2012 at 10:13 pm
A very good analysis. It takes what I've been thinking a few steps further. 2013 is the year of Syria and Lebanon.
But there's always counters to whatever has been planned out. Russia appears to be becoming more and more involved in Syria as each week passes. Perhaps they see exactly what you and I do and have decided to head it off at the pass.
Also , Iran is not going to sit idly by and let things fall into place to take it out. I don't really see any cards they can play except for heating up Afghanistan again. But Russia I suspect will take an even harsher line on military blockades or attacks on Iran than it is Syria.
If Russia and Iran can hold the line in Syria, then Hezbollah is quite capable of handling Israel on its own and this set of plans will be stopped cold.
dink
January 1st, 2013 at 9:05 am
The Muslim Brotherhood directed by the USA? I elect t that as the joke of the New Year.
dink
January 1st, 2013 at 9:27 am
I read your link, yet I do not agree with your analysis.
dink
January 1st, 2013 at 10:56 am
Out on a limb prediction – Look for a Kosovo/South Ossetia type defacto reality in Syria. (Kosovo is recognized by the US and a handful of allies but not the rest of the world/ South Ossetia is recognized by Russia and a handful of allies but not the rest of the world. (Last years Syria will have the same fate as Yugoslavia, it will not continue in whole). Russia will continue to have its warm water port in Syria. The ba'athist regime current led by Assad will continue a hold on the part of the country. The rebels will have a defacto agreement with Turkey and will not be reconquered by the regime. They will set up a parallel Sunni government or some manifestation.
dink
January 1st, 2013 at 11:20 am
Cont)
Lukidist controlled Israel would be happy with the Sunni and Ba'athists (along with their Christian citizens and some Palestinian factions) to bleed themselves and continuely weaken themselves. Yet, they will not rule the day. Expect stalemate. Hizbollah and Shi'ite Iran will be weakened by the defacto partitioning of Syria but will continue on. The US foreign policy will give lip service and some more support in helping Syrian rebels but at the same time does not want a vibrant pan-Arabist uncontrollable Sunni military movement, because that is what Al Queda basically is/was.
Andrewp111
January 1st, 2013 at 3:24 pm
Inherent humanity of Islam. That is snark, right?
Andrewp111
January 1st, 2013 at 3:34 pm
I don't see how you get a war with Iran "morphing" into a world war, but it could certainly set the stage for a future world war. No major power will go to the wall for Iran. Russia would be happy for oil prices to go up, and even China would simply wait until the war was over and take Iran's oil for itself if need be. But Iran is the center of the Shiite Nation, and if Iran were incinerated, that would end the Shiite-Sunni divide that has prevented Islam from unifying for 1200 years. The balance of power would shift permanently to the Sunni, and make the establishment of a new Caliphate ruling all of Islam at least possible, if not likely. If you want World War III as a fight to the death between Islam and the West for dominion over all, the establishment of a new Islamic Empire is a prerequisite. If you want the prophesy of Revelations with a 200 million man Army of Islam marching on Jerusalem to become reality, you need that Islamic Empire. The destruction of Iran is a prerequisite to getting a unified empire of all Islam.
James
January 1st, 2013 at 3:38 pm
A WARNING TO ALL ANTIWAR.COM READER
Antiwar has removed a good article based on FACTS by Richard Silverstein who EXPOSED an imposter and agent of Mossad by the name of Meir Javedanfar who is in the business of spreading liar against Iran to support the war party and necons for the interest of Israel. He is Iranian Jew who claim lives in Israel but his is stationed in Britain. http://original.antiwar.com/richard-silverstein/2…
This article can be found at Richard Silverstein’s website “Tikun Olam” and very few other sites, but majority of sites linked to ANTIWAR.COM, , where now is not active. Google, pro zionist Israel, has censored this article by posting an warning saying if you proceed your Computer will blow up, force you not to read about this Zionist agent who pose as specialist of middle east. Please spead the message. Antiwar.com cannot be trusted. I know Richard Silverstein is telling the truth.
[moderator's note: The message at Antiwar.com actually reads "That url cannot be found. We recently made some changes to this site and an administrator has been notified of the bad url." Nothing about your computer blowing up or anything like that. I'm not sure what's up with that, but I'll have it looked into, and contra James and his fevered imagination, it isn't the result of secret Zionist machinations at Antiwar.com. The article can be found off-site at: http://www.richardsilverstein.com/2012/12/27/meir... - TLK]
Guest
January 1st, 2013 at 6:05 pm
If Mr.Obama sends Mr.Hagel as Defence and he is rejected because of Lobby pressure.An option of sending another and another after him/her who is just as disliked by the Lobby would seem feasible.The American People would understand soon enough what is going on.The Lobby of a foreign country and it's domestic minions.dictating and vetoing the policies of the President and Congress,dully elected by the People,will not sit well with America and the Defence Department will survive without a head in place for quite a while,I would think.If a real show down is now required,this is the way to do it.Either party can play the Bork game.
liberranter
January 1st, 2013 at 9:39 pm
Here it looks like Bashar al-Assad’s days are numbered, and it’s only a matter of time — and not much time, at that — before the Ba’athist regime falls. The likely result: the Lebanon-ization of the country, which means the de facto break-up of the Syrian state, with the country’s many ethnic and religious factions each establishing their own enclaves.
Since not only Syria, but nearly every other contemporary Arab nation except Egypt and Yemen is a creation of foreign (namely western) imperial powers, one can be amazed only at the fact that they didn’t long ago fall apart. The ongoing fragmentation of Iraq, widely regarded in the West as anything from a tragedy to an unacceptable and untenable disaster, is an example of the inevitable fate awaiting the entire region – whether or not Rome-on-the-Potomac wants it to happen or not (and we cannot be at all certain that it doesn’t).
[T]he world will witness the spectacle of Israel increasingly coming to resemble the deep South in the days of George Wallace and Bull Connor. Aside from alienating the world community in general, this horrific trend will also put yet more distance between Israel and their most important international constituency: American Jews.
Not a chance. If this involved any other constituency and any other controversial issue, then there would be a problem. But because of the “get out of jail free card” factor here, things will go on as they always have.
“Next year, the Swiss, French and Palestinians are going to provide unimpeachable evidence that Yasser Arafat was assassinated by someone with access to Israeli polonium.”
It would indeed be interesting to see someone confirm what we already know, although we can safely say that there’s only one set of “someones” with access to Israeli polonium, and they ain’t non-Israelis.
richard vajs
January 2nd, 2013 at 6:32 am
Actually no. If you believe that Islam is inherently warlike or racist, then you are getting your info from someone like Robert Spencer or Pamela Geller. Invest a few hours and actually read the Koran sometime. Or better yet, travel to some Islamic country – you'll even be invited to view a mosque. Sure, the Mid East Islamic countries are in turmoil, but they didn't come up with that on their own. In Iraq, while we were militarily occupying them, all of a sudden mosques started getting bombed, which never happened under Saddam. They even caught British troops decked out in "Aladdin's Lamp" disguises skulking around mosques before they started blowing up. Stirring up the Shiite-Sunni pot was our "ace-in-the-hole" during the Surge. And the Syrian "rebels" are basically mercenaries – paid for by you-know-who. But, I can accept your point – just appreciate where the hatred comes from.
Bob D
January 2nd, 2013 at 9:15 am
"It can be argued that the US is trying to finish its agenda in the Middle East and northern Africa as quickly as possible to pirouette to East Asia and slap down China, its only serious competitor for the world's most powerful nation."
I don't think this is obvious and who knows what the world will be like in 2020.
But even if it is true, at least we would be considering perpetual war on a semi-rational basis. Israel does not have a dog in the China hunt. Not like in the middle east where our leaders look at American lives as ever-expendable if they are lost for the greater good of Israel.
Bob D
January 2nd, 2013 at 9:24 am
I don't think you want to put yourself in the position of defending Moslem humanity with the Koran. Seems to me there's some vindictiveness mixed into that story. I don't say this to trash Moslems. You wouldn't want to defend Christian humanity with some parts of the old testament.
richard vajs
January 2nd, 2013 at 2:15 pm
I will grant that the Koran does get nasty when dealing with those who would destroy true believers. Christianity is ambivalent about self-defense. That is Christianity in theory – there is no ambivalence in practice. The Koran refers to those who would destroy true believers as infidels, which incidentally is not synonymous with "people of the book" (Christians and Jews). Artful liars try to make both designations as the same. But, you are certainly right about the old testament – it is racist to the core, bloodthirsty, vengeful, and purports that somehow the Universal creator has his "chosen race of humans". The OT is generally rubbish in the opinions of many believers in Jesus (including Thomas Jefferson).
Oswaldwasalefty
January 3rd, 2013 at 3:15 am
My can't miss prediction for 2013 is that Israel continue full speed ahead on its course as the world's top lunatic state. It's getting all the help it needs with its American friends at AIPAC and the Christian right. Really going out on a limb with this prediction.
The Assad regime will still be in power at the end of the year. If Obama really meant his "Assad must go rhetoric", then he would have flexed American military muscle by now and Assad would be gone by now, like Gaddafi before him. This policy will be carried out in the interest of stability, as I'm guessing that Washington would prefer to have a Syria with central government capable of governing, unlike what has happened to Libya.
The war against Iran will not be escalated the current policy of economic warfare. Again, the interest of stability will trump the desire in Washington for vengeance against Tehran for 1979.
Expect more of the same foreign policy from August Obama The Drone Assassin as we've seen from him in his first four years, and don't expect much if any protest from the "antiwar" movement. It's very clear now, as it has been for years, that most of the protest we saw in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was anti-Republican first and foremost. Give Augustus Obama a second Nobel War Prize by the end of his second term, I say.
Jeff
January 3rd, 2013 at 6:48 pm
LOL @ you considering a radical rightwinger like Justin to be "liberal".
You know what I hate? Single-issue voters. You know which single-issue voters I hate the most? Inbred uneducated white-supremacists who think they are aryan supermen. That's the sort of stupidity that should be made a capital offense.
Jeff
January 3rd, 2013 at 6:51 pm
If the state gets to decide who gets let in, can it then decide which to throw out?
After all, it don't get anymore "anglo saxon" than kicking people off their land and stealing all their stuff.
Jeff
January 3rd, 2013 at 6:56 pm
By the time we finish toppling regimes around Iran and letting them become Iranian puppet states, we'll have another superpower to arms race against!
2020 is a hoot. China already has more influence in world affairs than the US just due to it's potential. When they actually have the economy and military to back it up, your kids will be learning their letters in Chinese!
Jeff
January 3rd, 2013 at 7:04 pm
Your interpretation of the Book of Revelation is almost as infantile as your political analysis.
It's like someone at the outbreak of the First World War saying that nobody is going to to to the wall for Serbia! Real wars aren't like Grenada and Iraq – you have blocs and entangling alliances. You have constantly rising stakes and a population demanding that you act – NOW. Just the immediate economic impact of an attack on Iran couldn't be easily predicted.