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The New York Times


Mo’bama

My first reaction as the numbers rolled in was that voters had conspired to play an elaborate practical joke on the country. After more than a year of frantic attention, obscene amounts of advertising, a profusion of polling, fact-checking, forecasting and analyzing, most of it predicated on the notion that America wanted change – “Big Change” as the closing Romney slogan had it – the electorate decided to basically leave things the way they were: President Obama in the White House, intransigent Republicans in charge of the House, Democrats barely in control of the Senate. After confiding to pollsters that they yearned for an end to gridlock, they reinstated the same traffic jam. Can this mean anything but four more years of acrimony and paralysis?

There are reasons to hope it can.

First, as Carl Hulse explained in The Times, last night’s outcome – the defeat of the Republican standard-bearer, the failed dream of taking the Senate – is bound to make Republicans in Congress question their strategy of obstruction and ideological purity. Certainly there will be Republicans who argue Romney failed by not being conservative enough. But there are Republicans (and I’ll bet John Boehner is one of them) who understand reality, and the reality is this: Romney surged when he moved toward the middle, and might have won if he had not veered so far right in his quest for the nomination, alienating women and Latinos in particular. The wiser heads will read their fate in the demographics (Republican support rests on a diminishing base of white men), in the repudiation Tuesday of Tea Party favorites in Indiana and Missouri and elsewhere, in the turning of the tide on gay rights, in the failure of Karl Rove’s SuperPAC cash to alter the balance of power, and in the electorate’s consistent plea to pollsters for compromise in Washington. The economy will be the first test of whether realism has seeped into the Republican consciousness, but there will be others. For example, after the burgeoning Latino vote went nearly 70 percent for Obama, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marco Rubio rounding up Republicans for a deal on immigration reform.

Second, Obama knows his only route to the large legacy he craves leads through the more temperate Republicans, and he knows (as a man who voraciously consumes his press reviews) that winning votes requires something he has neglected, working the room. It requires old-fashioned schmoozing and flattery and favors, accompanied by high-minded appeals to the public. My colleague Tim Egan wrote a wonderful blog post yesterday explaining how Obama won the outspoken admiration of New Jersey’s acerbically Republican governor, Chris Christie, not just by delivering flood relief, but by brokering a meet between Governor Christie and his idol, Bruce Springsteen. I’m not sure what this says about Chris Christie, but it suggests Obama is getting some political game.

Third, if conciliatory outreach and a few rounds of golf with the majority leader fail, there is that “fiscal cliff.” I’ve proposed before that Obama make it perfectly clear: if the Republicans continue to play stall and sabotage, if they do not respond to genuine offers of a fiscal bargain, he is prepared to let the tax cuts expire and draconian spending cuts (including defense) kick in automatically at the beginning of the year. It would not take a lot of persuading for the public to blame Congress and – as Obama recently pointed out – voting is the best revenge. Let’s see how the Republicans, who have played their own game of chicken on the debt ceiling, respond when the president’s headlights are bearing down on them.

Is this too much to hope for?


Mourdock and Ryan, Abortion and Rape

Last year I wrote a column urging my colleagues in the press to ask tougher questions about the religious views of candidates for public office. I said I would want to know if a candidate’s faith guided his or her views on the issues, if religious doctrine would be a justification for excluding some categories of citizen (gays, for example) from the rights and protections the country promises, or if religious narrative overshadowed a candidate’s respect for serious science and verifiable history.

My exhortation provoked a rebuke from Amy Sullivan, a thoughtful and provocative liberal evangelical who blogs about religion (previously for Time, now for The New Republic.) She declared that my admittedly irreverent manifesto “read like a parody of an out-of-touch, secular, Manhattan journalist,” and went on to say we should ask not “tougher” questions but “more relevant” questions. We have since hashed out our views in a public forum, and I think we agree more than we disagree: Where a candidate’s religious views influence a candidate’s policies, they are fair game, but we should conduct our interrogations with respect and some understanding of the faith in question.

So my ears perked up when I switched on NPR this morning and heard Amy Sullivan on the subject of Richard Mourdock, the Republican Senate candidate from Indiana. In the radio interview and in a TNR blog post she supplied a non-out-of-touch, non-secular, non-Manhattan reading of Mourdock’s much-derided comment on rape and abortion. It’s worth your attention.

In case you’ve tuned out, Mourdock explained his opposition to abortion even in cases of rape as follows: “I’ve struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize that life is that gift from God. And, I think, even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”

Amy did not defend Mourdock’s position on abortion (she is pro-choice) but she explained his view fairly and clearly. First, what he was trying to convey was that the “it” God intended to happen was not the rape, but the “life” that resulted. Second, she noted that this notion of God as an active interventionist in human affairs is fairly common in evangelical faiths, and not just among conservatives. (More than one commenter on her blog post asked how this mighty God could intend the pregnancy but not intend the rape; is this God in charge, or not? That’s a fair question. I think Mourdock and his co-religionists would say God is not a micro-manager, sometimes he just lets stuff happen, but he takes a particular hands-on interest in the beginning of life. At least, that’s my out-of-touch, secular Manhattan journalist’s understanding.) So, to sum up, Mourdock may be wrong, and he may be, as Amy says, “totally oblivious and insensitive” to the horror of being pregnant by rape, but he is a) not endorsing rape as God’s will and b) not out of line with a particular line of Christian belief.
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Completing Mitt’s Makeover

If you score last night’s faceoff in Boca on debating points, Obama won. He should have. He’s been navigating the complexities of foreign policy for nearly four years, and while even admirers of his presidency can list disappointments, on his watch we brought our troops home from Iraq, charted a route home from Afghanistan, mobilized strong international pressure against Iran’s nuclear program, eroded the leadership of Al Qaeda and helped rid the world of Muammar Qaddafi. The president’s best lines were obviously scripted, he was allowed to evade some important questions, but he projected confidence and seriousness of purpose.

If you look at last night as the final stage of Mitt Romney’s metamorphosis from primary-season ideologue to cautious technocrat, then he was what he needed to be: good enough. His main job was not to knock down the president; he is overmatched on foreign policy, and in any case there is still something in Americans, some sense of decorum, that believes politics should end, or at least be tempered, at the water’s edge. Romney had two overlapping objectives last night. One was to assure voters that he was not the fumbling amateur or the hyperactive hawk that Obama attack ads and the governor’s own behavior have suggested. In other words, that he was a plausible, unfrightening steward of our security. The other was to neutralize foreign affairs as a fighting matter so he can return to the domestic economic issues where he has a chance of winning. In other words, to minimize the meaningful differences between himself and the president. He wobbled in the first half hour and sometimes sounded like a student who has crammed the whole course the night before the test. But I think he pretty much accomplished his aims.
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Hillary: The Missed Opportunity

Back in January I proposed that President Obama do a switcheroo, sending Joe Biden to the State Department and making Hillary Clinton his running mate. I acknowledged the reasons that this was probably a fantasy, but contended the arguments in favor were as simple as one-two-three:

One: it does more to guarantee Obama’s re-election than anything else the Democrats can do. Two: it improves the chances that, come next January, he will not be a lame duck with a gridlocked Congress but a rejuvenated president with a mandate and a Congress that may be a little less forbidding. Three: it makes Hillary the party’s heir apparent in 2016.

The chorus of reader approval was loud, but did not include anyone named Obama, Biden or Clinton.

Now that Obama faces a real possibility of losing the White House, it gives me no pleasure to say “I told you so.” Okay, maybe just a tiny bit of pleasure. In recent days my case has been strengthened by three pieces of evidence.

First and foremost, the gender gap appears to be closing. Today’s USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows that likely female voters in the critical swing states are split 49-48 for Obama – a statistical tie where Obama used to, and ought to, and has to, enjoy a substantial margin. The Obama campaign of course disputes the data as “implausible,” but the general drift of women toward Romney is consistent with the trend in other polls.
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Scoring Obama’s Debacle

The snap judgment I tweeted after last night’s debate was “On points (facts aside): Romney A-/B+ (shameless but masterful), Obama C+ (missed every opportunity), Lehrer D (road kill).”

After a night’s sleep and further reflection, I think I was a little generous to Obama, and a better verdict on Lehrer would have been “absent.” But the morning-after judgment is pretty much the same as last night’s.

I do not pretend to know the mind of the electorate; the polls will tell us that soon enough. But Romney did a convincing impersonation of a guy with command of the facts, a clear sense of direction, and an empathy that transcends his own privileged caste. The facts may have been bogus, the direction was about 90 degrees off the course he’s set since the primary season began, and the empathy may be the product of good coaching. But my hunch is that for voters watching – before the verdict of the fact-checkers and the pundits – he got away with it.

Will the aura of victory fade as the audience factors in the fact-checking? How many readers/viewers will bother? I don’t know. (For those of you who like to know when candidates are slinging hooey, some truth-squadding is available here and here.)

I’m not one of those who was yearning for a comeback story to sell newspapers and drive Web traffic for the month ahead. There are lots of things I’d rather write about beyond this depressing spectacle.

But a comeback story is what we now have.

“Romney A-/B+ (shameless but masterful)”

The post-mortems all observed that this debate spent a lot of time down in the weeds of regulatory detail and tax provisions. Dodd-Frank and Simpson-Bowles were lobbed into the discussion as if every voter had mastered the finer points of banking reform and deficit reduction. But where Obama rambled and mumbled, Romney stuck to a few clear points (note I do not say “facts” – see above) and returned to them relentlessly.

It’s easy to mock Romney as a guy who uses PowerPoint slides at campaign speeches (I’ve done it myself) but there’s a reason PowerPoint is the tool of choice for corporate executives. It allows you to distinguish major points from subsidiary points. It organizes your thinking and prevents you from rambling off course. On the strength of the first debate, I’d recommend Obama spend a little time working with PowerPoint. He sounded like a professor who has forgotten his course outline and grown bored with his subject. Romney sounded executive.
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A Conversation with President U Thein Sein of Myanmar

Following is the transcript of an interview with President U Thein Sein in New York, September 28. He also answered questions before an audience at the Asia Society on September 27, and the video is available here. In both conversations, he spoke through a translator.

Bill Keller: Before we get to matters of state, I’d like to ask a few personal questions. Americans don’t know you very well yet. Can you tell me a bit about your parents, about your education?

Thein Sein: I came from a very humble background. My parents were ordinary people. I was born in a small village near Hainggyi Island which is located in the delta area. My parents were farmers.

BK: I read somewhere that your father was at one time a Buddhist monk. Is that correct?

TS: My father joined the monkhood only after his wife passed away. After his wife died, my father stayed with me for about ten years. Then he became a monk, and he passed away as a monk. [An aide later pointed out that it is common among Burmese Buddhists for widowers to live out their final days as monks.]

BK: Did you go to school in the village?

TS: The village only had a primary school. Then I went to the capital of the region, and I studied there for one year. My village had no middle school – the closest one was 40 or 50 miles away, so I went there to study for about three years. Then I went back to the capital and studied for another three years. Then I sat for the entrance exam to the military academy. I passed, and I studied there for four years. I graduated with a bachelor of arts degree, and became a second lieutenant.

BK: When did you first get a chance to see the world outside of Myanmar?

TS: I first got a chance to go abroad for the first time when I was a colonel on the general staff of the War Office. I went to China and Singapore.

BK: How old were you then?

TS: In my mid-40’s.

BK: Burma was under international sanctions for many years. How would you describe the effects of the sanctions on your country?

TS: I think the sanctions had a tremendous negative effect on ordinary people. Because of sanctions we did not receive foreign direct investment, and there were very few job opportunities for ordinary people. Many of our citizens had to find jobs in neighboring countries. About three million of our citizens are working in Thailand or other countries in the region. Even though sanctions were meant to undermine the military government, in fact they hurt ordinary people more.
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A Conversation with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

Following is a transcript of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s meeting with editors and reporters of The New York Times, Sept. 26.

Q: A year ago, if someone had said Burma would be where it is today, they’d have been locked in a lunatic asylum. What do you think convinced the old regime that it was time for change?

A: I think these things take on their own momentum. I think they had not expected to move so quickly. But, particularly after the NDL [her party, the National League for Democracy] agreed to take part in the elections, this together with the desire of the government to institute economic reforms, these went together. And then of course there was the legislature. The legislature has turned out to be more workable than I would have imagined, in a democratic way. All these things took on their own momentum, I don’t think anyone decided that they’re going to go at this particular speed.

Q: Is it fair to say the sanctions worked?

A: Yes, I always say that sanctions work. Not in the way people think it did. Now the emphasis is on the economic effect of the sanctions, but I always quote the IMF by saying that for years IMF reports have consistently made the point that the sanctions have affected Burma’s economy very little and it was mismanagement that put us in a terrible mess. But partly, the regime started believing their own propaganda that sanctions are responsible for the ills of the country. This always happens. I think the eagerness to go ahead economically, I think the perception was that if you improve the economy, everything else would improve. I don’t subscribe to that view, I think you need political reforms as well as economic reforms. So the sanctions needed to be removed, because a lot of people saw them as an obstacle to progress.

Q: So the sanctions hurt ordinary Burmese but they helped evoke change? Read more…


Mitt and Bibi: Diplomacy as Demolition Derby

It turns out Bibi Netanyahu and Mitt Romney have more in common than a background in management consulting and an unswerving devotion to the security of Israel. When it comes to international diplomacy, we are reminded this week, both have the subtle grace of cattle on loco weed.

Netanyahu’s is the graver offense, because he knew exactly what he was doing. At a news conference in Jerusalem, he dripped scorn on the United States for its reluctance to launch a dubious preventive war against Iran – a war that even many authoritative and patriotic Israelis don’t want. Netanyahu wants America to declare a “red line,” a point at which Iran must cease its nuclear enrichment program or be showered with high explosives. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton refused over the weekend to issue such a specific ultimatum. To which Netanyahu sneered: “Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.”

Let’s unpack this a little.

First, Clinton was right. Ultimatums should be a near-last resort in international relations. They put the adversary in a corner. They limit your flexibility. For example: The U.S. has never said what it would do if China decided to forcibly exercise its claim to Taiwan, although we are committed to Taiwan’s autonomy. Announcing our response in advance might embolden nationalists in Taiwan to push up to the limits, provoking the mainland into doing something rash. This approach is what diplomats call “constructive ambiguity,” a phrase attributed to Henry Kissinger. Skillful diplomacy is about postponing hard choices while you look for something better, in this case a negotiated deal to limit Iran’s enrichment to domestic uses. That may be why Mitt Romney, like President Obama, has avoided identifying any “red lines” in Iran; or maybe that’s just consistent with his lack of specificity on so many other issues.

Second, while the U.S. has urged Israel to show restraint so that sanctions and other measures (including the possibility of further cyber-sabotage) can do their part, no one has put a “red light” in Israel’s way. Netanyahu is perfectly free to send his bombers to Iran. The only problem is that Israel probably cannot do a thorough job without U.S. participation.

Whether you agree or not with the idea of using force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (followers of this space know I do not) there is no reason to strike now. There are inspectors and monitoring devices at Iran’s enrichment facilities to alert us if Iran decides to suddenly start enriching weapons-grade fuel. The only urgency is Netanyahu’s calculation that he can use the American presidential election to pressure Obama. That leverage disappears after November 6.

Netanyahu has done his country no favor. Americans are strongly opposed to a preventive war against Iran, and are likely to resent a brazen attempt to push them into fighting one at Israel’s behest. A new survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, released Monday, finds that 70 percent of Americans oppose a unilateral military strike. Moreover, if Israel bombs Iran and ignites a war, 59 percent say the U.S. should not come to Israel’s aid.

Netanyahu’s crude intervention in our politics may – and should – embarrass his preferred candidate, Mitt Romney. Romney’s options now are to join his friend Netanyahu in attacking U.S. foreign policy (so much for politics stopping at the water’s edge), to distance himself from the foreign leader he has most enthusiastically embraced, or to shut up.

And, if Obama is reelected, the president is unlikely to forget this exercise in manipulation by an Israeli leader he already has ample reason to mistrust.

Meanwhile, Romney’s latest venture into foreign policy was an attempt to exploit a tragedy in Libya for cheap political gain.

Yesterday a Libyan mob, enraged by a video that mocked the prophet Mohammed, attacked and burned the American consulate in Benghazi. Four diplomats, including the U.S. ambassador to Libya, J. Christopher Stevens, were killed. The video, made by a murky character who has told conflicting stories about his identity, portrays Mohammed as a fraud, a philanderer, a child molester and a fool.

Obama issued a statement calling the attack “outrageous.” “While the United States rejects efforts to denigrate the religious beliefs of others,” he said, “we must all unequivocally oppose the kind of senseless violence that took the lives of these public servants.”

The White House response contained two strong messages: expressing indignation at the killing of our officials, and disavowing the insulting video. The second message was arguably more urgent than the first, because if the notion spreads that the U.S. somehow endorsed a blatant insult to Islam’s founding prophet, the rage could metastasize, costing lives.

The Romney response was either a complete misreading of a dangerous situation, or a classic act of cynicism. “It’s disgraceful,” said the campaign’s statement, “that the Obama administration’s first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.”

The jibe apparently referred not to Obama’s statement but to one issued independently by the U.S. embassy in Cairo, deploring the video. The Cairo outpost rejected “efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims.” The Cairo embassy was understandably trying to defuse a potentially dangerous situation outside its walls. (Sure enough, the embassy was soon surrounded by an angry throng.)

When the situation became clearer, Romney could have tempered his remarks, and offered the president a hand of American solidarity. That would have been the right, the classy, the traditional and, incidentally, the politically popular thing to do. (It’s what virtually ever other senior Republican official did.) Instead, at a press conference, Romney doubled down, recycling his baseless charge that Obama was “apologizing for American principles.”

Romney has excuses for this kind of blunder: he is a foreign policy naïf, and he is desperate. But, like Netanyahu, he is not helping himself. The polls show that American voters trust Obama more than Romney on foreign policy. Romney’s ham-handed handling of this episode confirms their judgment.


Nuclear Mullahs, Continued

My column on confronting the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran seems to have caught a lot of readers by surprise. The surprise ranges from approving (“Thank heavens, at last a voice of sanity!”) to indignant (“Are you out of your [expletive] mind?!?”)

Briefly, I wrote that if faced with a choice between two terrible options, a preventive war to set back Iran’s nuclear program or living with a nuclear Iran the way we live with other nuclear states, I would grit my teeth and choose the latter as less dangerous. After summing up the risks of each course, though, I concluded that a serious look at the alternatives should redouble our determination to find a third way: a negotiated deal. However difficult and unappetizing it might be to offer any concessions to the “brutal, meddlesome and mendacious” regime in Iran, it’s the way to avoid two worse choices.

First, credit where credit is due. While the idea of containing a nuclear Iran is is far from being the mainstream view among experts who study Iran, the Mideast, foreign policy generally, or nuclear proliferation issues, I’m hardly the first to reach it. In March, Fareed Zakaria made a somewhat similar argument in the Washington Post.

In the March/April issue of The Washington Monthly, Paul Pillar, a former intelligence official in the Bush Administration, offered a more extensive case for containment.

Robert Wright chimed in in support of Pillar in the Atlantic.

Barry Posen, a professor of political science at MIT, has been making the case for at least six years, including in a 2006 Op-Ed for The Times.

A veteran diplomat, Kenneth Waltz, goes beyond least-bad-option case and argues in a recent issue of Foreign Affairs that Iran SHOULD get the bomb, to balance Israel’s nuclear arsenal and make the region more stable – a point of view I do NOT share.

A number of authoritative Israeli voices, including at least two former heads of the intelligence agency Mossad and a former head of the security agency Shin Bet, have publicly opposed attacking Iran – though most of them have not followed that logic to the notion of accepting a nuclear-armed Iran.

The conviction that a nuclear Iran is simply intolerable surfaced pretty vehemently in comments and emails, and I thought I’d use this space to address a few of them. Just to reiterate: I do not welcome the idea of a nuclear Iran. Iran with that kind of weapon would quite likely be an even more menacing pest to its neighbors. There would be some danger of further proliferation in the region. And the hostility between Iran and (already nuclear-armed) Israel is so visceral that I would worry about some crisis between them escalating to a nuclear exchange. On balance, I came away from my reporting convinced that these dangers were more tolerable than the consequences of a preventive war – especially given that a military attack would only postpone Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Here are a few of the contrary arguments that surfaced in the reader response:

The theocrats who run Iran would not be deterred from annihilating Israel, because they believe they would be carrying out God’s will, even if it meant the mutually assured destruction of Iran. Some Shiites – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Holocaust-denying Iranian president, sounds like he is one of them – believe the destruction of Israel is a prerequisite for the return of the Twelfth Imam, who will bring justice and peace to the world.

Whether Ahmadinejad is an actual genocidal madman or just plays one for popular consumption (and to give Iran a little street cred among the disaffected Muslims beyond Iran) is a question none of us can answer with certainty. But judging by their behavior, he and the others in the religious-military-political conglomerate that rules Iran have a powerful instinct for self-preservation.

Religious pronouncements of foreign leaders are worth study, but it would be folly to take them at face value. The same mullahs who denounce Israel as satanic – including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – have issued fatwas declaring that the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden in Islam. I don’t know about you, but I don’t take much reassurance from that.

By the way, some American evangelicals also believe the Apocalypse means the end of Israel – with Jews either falling at the feet of Christ or suffering a painful death. Prophecy is not the same as a summons to action.
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Condi’s World

TAMPA, Fla.

What do you do with Condoleezza Rice? If you’re organizing the nominating convention of a Republican presidential candidate in 2012, she presents you with a dilemma.

On the one hand the former secretary of state is an accomplished, proudly Republican black woman, a woman who has parlayed her public service into a prestigious post in academia and a lucrative supplementary career as a consultant and public speaker. She is an icon of opportunity (a Republican mantra) and diversity (a Republican shortcoming). She is one of the first two women admitted to the Augusta National golf club. She reportedly dazzled Romney at a recent high-roller fund-raiser in Utah.

On the other hand, she is a reminder of the Recent Republican President Who Shall Scarcely Be Mentioned at This Convention. Read more…