The Great Green Con no. 1: The hard proof that finally shows global warming forecasts that are costing you billions were WRONG all along  

By David Rose

|


No, the world ISN'T getting warmer (as you may have noticed). Now we reveal the official data that's making scientists suddenly change their minds about climate doom. So will eco-funded MPs stop waging a green crusade with your money? Well... what do YOU think?

The Mail on Sunday today presents irrefutable evidence that official predictions of global climate warming have been catastrophically flawed.

The graph on this page blows apart the ‘scientific basis’ for Britain reshaping its entire economy and spending billions in taxes and subsidies in order to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. These moves have already added £100 a year to household energy bills.

global warming graph

global warming graph

Steadily climbing orange and red bands on the graph show the computer predictions of world temperatures used by the official United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The estimates – given with 75 per cent and 95 per cent certainty – suggest only a five per cent chance of the real temperature falling outside both bands.

 

But when the latest official global temperature figures from the Met Office are placed over the predictions, they show how wrong the estimates have been, to the point of falling out of the ‘95 per cent’ band completely.

In 1977 we were warned of the 'next ice age', now we are warned that the planet is getting dangerously hot

Varying fears: In 1977 we were warned of the 'next ice age', now we are warned that the planet is getting dangerously hot

The graph shows in incontrovertible detail how the speed of global warming has been massively overestimated. Yet those forecasts have had a ruinous impact on the bills we pay, from heating to car fuel to huge sums paid by councils to reduce carbon emissions.

The eco-debate was, in effect, hijacked by false data. The forecasts have also forced jobs abroad as manufacturers relocate to places with no emissions targets.

A version of the graph appears in a leaked draft of the IPCC’s landmark Fifth Assessment Report due out later this year. It comes as leading climate scientists begin to admit that their worst fears about global warming will not be realised.

Academics are revising their views after acknowledging the miscalculation. Last night Myles Allen, Oxford University’s Professor of Geosystem Science, said that until recently he believed the world might be on course for a catastrophic temperature rise of more than five degrees this century.

But he now says: ‘The odds have come down,’ – adding that warming is likely to be significantly lower.
Prof Allen says higher estimates are now ‘looking iffy’.

The graph confirms there has been no statistically significant increase in the world’s average temperature since January 1997 – as this newspaper first disclosed last year.

At the end of last year the Met Office revised its ten-year forecast predicting a succession of years breaking records for warmth. It now says the pause in warming will last until at least 2017. A glance at the graph will confirm that the world will be cooler than even the coolest scenario predicted.

experts

experts

Its source is impeccable. The line showing world temperatures comes from the Met Office ‘HadCRUT4’ database, which contains readings from more than 30,000 measuring posts. This was added to the 75 and 95 per cent certainty bands to produce the graph by a group that amalgamates the work of 20 climate model centres working for the IPCC.

Predictions of global warming, based on scientists’ forecasts of how  fast increasing CO2 levels would cause temperatures to rise, directly led to Britain’s Climate Change Act. This commits the UK to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.

1977 - THE YEAR WE WERE TOLD TO FEAR TERROR OF...GLOBAL COOLING

In the Seventies, scientists and policymakers were just as concerned about a looming ‘ice age’ as they have been lately about global warming – as the Time magazine cover  pictured here illustrates.

Temperatures had been falling since the beginning of the Forties. Professors warned that the trend would continue and food crises were going to get worse because of shorter growing seasons.

Newsweek magazine reported that evidence of cooling was so strong ‘meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it’. But, it lamented, ‘scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections’. It said the planet was already ‘a sixth of the way towards  the next ice age’.

While recently every kind of extreme weather event has been blamed on warming, in the Seventies the culprit was cooling. One article predicted ‘the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded’, along with ‘droughts, floods, extended dry spells and long freezes’.

The current Energy Bill is set to increase subsidies for wind turbines to £7.6 billion a year – leading to a combined cost of £110 billion. Motorists will soon see a further 3p per litre rise in the cost of petrol because this now has to contain ‘biofuel’ ethanol.

Many scientists say the pause, and new research into factors such as smoke particles and ocean cycles, has made them rethink what is termed ‘climate sensitivity’ – how much the world will warm for a given level of CO2.

Yesterday Piers Forster, Climate Change Professor at Leeds University, said: ‘The fact that global surface temperatures haven’t risen in the last 15 years, combined with good knowledge of the terms changing climate, make the high estimates unlikely.’

And Professor Judith Curry, head of climate science at the prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said: ‘The models are running too hot. The flat trend in global surface temperatures may continue for another decade or two.’

James Annan, of Frontier Research For Global Change, a prominent ‘warmist’, recently said high estimates for climate sensitivity now look ‘increasingly untenable’, with the true figure likely to be about half of the IPCC prediction in its last report in 2007.

Avowed climate sceptics are more  unequivocal. Dr David Whitehouse, author of a new report on the pause published on Friday by Lord Lawson’s Global Warming Policy Foundation, said: ‘This changes everything. It means we have much longer to work things out. Global warming should no longer be the main determinant of anyone’s economic or energy policy.’

I said the end wasn't nigh... and it cost me my BBC career says TV's first environmentalist, David Bellamy

Former BBC Botanist David Bellamy said that he was regarded as heretical for not toeing the line on global warming

Challenged the orthodoxy: Former BBC Botanist David Bellamy said that he was regarded as heretical for not toeing the line on global warming

This graph shows the end of the world isn’t nigh. But for anyone – like myself – who has been vilified for holding such an unfashionable view, possibly the most important thing about it is its source: the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Since its creation in 1988, the IPCC has been sounding the alarm about man-made global warming. Yet here, in a draft of its latest report, is a diagram overlaying the observed temperature of the earth on its predictions.

The graph shows a world stubbornly refusing to warm. Indeed, it shows the world is soon set to be cooler.

The awkward fact is that the earth has warmed just 0.5 degrees over the past 50 years. And Met Office records show that for the past 16 years temperatures have plateaued and, if anything, are going down.

As the graph shows, the longer this goes on, the more the actual, real-world temperature record will diverge from the IPCC’s doom-laden prediction.

Yet this prediction is used to justify the ugly wind farms spoiling our countryside and billions in unnecessary ‘green’ taxes that make our industry less competitive and add up to £100 a year to household energy bills.

Man-made global warming has become scientific orthodoxy, with no room for dissent. Tragically, the traditional caution of my brethren has gone out of the window along with the concept of sceptical peer reviewing to test new theories.

Opponents of man-made global warming are regarded as dangerous heretics, as I learnt to my cost. Soon after the IPCC was created, I was invited to what is now the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter to hear a presentation on global warming.

As the face of natural history on the BBC and a science academic, they wanted to enrol me in their cause. But when I read the so-called evidence, I realised it was flawed and refused to ‘sign up’.

I rapidly found myself cast out from the BBC and the wider scientific community. When I helped some children campaign against a wind farm as part of a Blue Peter programme, I was publicly vilified. Abusive emails criticised me. I realised my career at the BBC was over. 

But scientific theory should be tested. That’s why I question the science which casts carbon as the villain that will bring about the end of the world.

David Bellamy argues that we should be able to test theories about global warming and that the world can live with fluctuations of carbon levels in the air

Open discussion: David Bellamy argues that we should be able to test theories about global warming and that the world can live with fluctuations of carbon levels in the air

Geology tells us that fossil fuels are predominantly carbon which was part of our atmosphere before being locked away in the earth millions of years ago. At that time, there were more than 4,000 carbon parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere. Over time this has been as low as 270ppm and is now about 385ppm.

It is obvious the world can live with these fluctuations in the level of atmospheric carbon.
There is a correlation between temperature and CO2, but some of my colleagues have put the cart before the horse.

The evidence shows CO2 levels follow temperature, not the other way around.
Indeed, there may be many factors that determine our climate. Australian scientist David Archibald has shown  a remarkable correlation between the sun’s activity and our climate over the past 300 years. Climate scientists insist we must accept the ‘carbon’ orthodoxy or be cast into the wilderness.

But the scientists behind  the theory have a vested interest – it’s a great way to justify new taxes, get more money and guarantee themselves more work.

The reality is that man-made global warming is a myth: the global temperature is well within life’s limits and, indeed, the present day is cooler by comparison to much of Earth’s history. Perhaps this will be the moment that this fact becomes the new scientific orthodoxy.

 

The comments below have not been moderated.

It's interesting if you wander around somewhere like the natural history museum and actually look at the evidence there. The earth has gone through cycles where we have had ice ages...and also cycles where there were no ice caps because its all a cycle...we need a longer period than this to know if global warming is actually happening.

Click to rate     Rating   1

So why has there been so many floods, snow in the Channel Islands, drought in England and continuous cloud last year? Even half a degree means the atmosphere can hold billions of litres more water vapour which causes continuous cloud cover, more rain and snow and fog. Haven't we all noticed the fog?

Click to rate     Rating   3

Considering the age of the world, and the huge changes in climate that have occurred during those years, THERE ARE SOME VERY TOO TOO, CLEVER MEN (or should I say people) WHO THINK THEY CAN HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON SOMETHING THAT WILL CARRY ON REGARDLESS OF THEIR PUNY EFFORTS. OUR WHOLE LIFE TIMES ARE SECONDS IN THE LIFE OF OUR WORLD, YET THESE VAIN PEOPLE, BANKRUPT US, SPOIL OUR LANDSCAPES ETC ,IN THERE PURSUIT OF GLORY. TIME TOO CALL A HALT.

Click to rate     Rating   1

Common sense, at last, and David Bellamy, and others such as Johnny Ball, are finally vindicated.

Click to rate     Rating   1

Ah well. That settles one problem that has been bothering me. I need not have any guilty feelings coursing through my mind when I light my lovely log fire in my cozy snug each night when the frost hits us. Saves on the gas and electric bill.

Click to rate     Rating   2

Thank you, Mail. The much-vilified sceptics who have been saying for many years that CO2 (i.e. humans) has nothing to do with it will salute you. Unfortunately, as you point out, massive damage has been done (e.g., closing down perfectly good power stations for no reason, just for a start).

Click to rate     Rating   1

Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows global warming is a con. It's called nature, the same reason the planet went from tropical to ice age and back again.

Click to rate     Rating   9

Why is the Arctic melting, and the Alaskan, South American, New Zealand, The Alps, and the Himalayan glaciers all disappearing? - Elwood, Seattle, 17/03/2013 01:40.....er natural climate change its been going on for billions of years,not hard to understand if you have even a low IQ - sc , manc, 17/3/2013 02:24: Far queue. Do your research.

Click to rate     Rating   8

So the lie has finally been proven and the Kings new clothes of global warming doesn't exist! But, rather than admit this the Green spin doctors say it is till happening and it's our fault because we have not given it enough time to look at the current fugures in the context of time. If we had listened to the great Daved Bellamy we could have had sensible environmental policies, instead he was seen as an old man and not 'on board' with the new dubious trend promoted by the new wave of environmental intellectuals whose main argument was ridicule of those who disagreed.

Click to rate     Rating   13

According to the Graph shown the temperature will be .5 Degrees higher in 2020 -- exactly what the scientists are saying. Thanks DM for providing irrefutable evidence that Global warming is a fact. As in the Human body all natural and biological parameters are kept within a " optimum" range by compensatory mechanisms. Any rise in values indicate inability of the feedback and compensatory mechanisms -- and then it maybe too late and costly to make corrective action. For example, until the kidneys lose 25% tissue Blood Urea and other values maybe normal. But the person has lost reserve capacity and will go into acute failure with a minor kidney infection which a normal person can brush off easily.

Click to rate     Rating   10

The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.

You have 1000 characters left.
Libellous and abusive comments are not allowed. Please read our House Rules.
For information about privacy and cookies please read our Privacy Policy.
Terms