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AF447: When hearing isn't believing

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Two short paragraphs of the Air France AF447 investigation report offer an curious insight into the brain's response to aural alarm signals - and might go some way to explain not just the crew's failure to recognise the A330's stall but why terrain-warning systems sometimes seem to bark at pilots to 'pull up' in vain.

Stall warnings on the ill-fated Airbus sounded continuously for 54 seconds. But the inquiry report, sourcing seven different research papers, states that aural warnings demand the use of cognitive resources already engaged during periods of high workload.

"The ability to turn one's attention to this [aural] information is very wasteful," the analysis says, adding that the rarity - and even "aggressive nature" - of such warnings might lead to their being ignored.

Studies on visual-auditory conflict, it states, show a "natural tendency" to favour visual over auditory perception when information acquired by both senses appears to be contradictory.

"Piloting, calling heavily on visual activity, could lead pilots to a type of auditory insensitivity to the appearance of aural warnings that are rare and in contradiction with cockpit information," the analysis adds. Visual-auditory conflict during heavy workload translates into "attention selectivity" which accepts visual information but disregards critical aural warnings.

MOBILE, Alabama -- We can go way, way back if you like. Say, the early 18th century. Airbus -- both the company and the concept -- would not be invented or even dreamed of for some time. But the roots of France's claim on the economic fortunes of Mobile can be traced that far. It was here in 1710 that the local regent of Louis XIV ruled the Louisiana Territory, a responsibility that eventually passed to a more suitable town located at the mouth of the Mississippi River called New Orleans. The legacy of France's early rule over Mobile lives on in the names of the streets -- Dauphin and Royal, for example -- and in the local drawl (it's "mo-BEEL", not "MO-bil").

Three centuries later, Mobile's Brookley Aeroplex will become the home of Airbus manufacturing on US soil, and perhaps the beginning of a more dramatic strategic shift for the Franco-German airframer. (Read our full analysis here.)

To conserve space, we'll fast forward our timeline to the very beginning of this century, with the first contact between Airbus and Mobile officials.

2002 - As Airbus opens an engineering centre in Wichita, North American chairman Allan McArtor discusses opening a Mobile site with then-US Representative Sonny Callahan, an Alabama Repbulican.

 

7 April 2004 - Airbus announces new facility to support US Coast Guard training centre in Mobile.

 

5 May 2005 - In bid for USAF tanker contract, Mobile named among four finalist sites for A330-based tanker modifications

 

22 June 2005 -- EADS selects Mobile as A330 tanker modification centre

 

2007 - Airbus opens an engineering centre in Mobile.

 

14 January 2008 - Airbus commits to establish an A330 Freighter aircraft final assembly line in Mobile, conditioned on if the Northrop Grumman/EADS North America KC-30 bid wins the USAF tanker contest.

 

29 February 2008 - Northrop/EADS team wins USAF tanker contract, prepares to open A330F final assembly line in Mobile.

 

19 June 2008 - Government Accountability Office finds errors in bidding process, urges USAF to overturn contract and start a new competition.

 

1 October 2009 - Airbus establishes MRO center at Mobile regional airport to support US military C-212 and CN-235s, plus US Coast Guard HC-144s.

 

24 February 2010 - USAF releases new request for proposals for KC-X tanker contract.

 

24 February 2011 -- EADS loses second tanker competition to Boeing, but notes "this is one business opportunity among many for EADS in the United States".

 

2 July 2012 - Airbus commits to build $600 million final assembly centre for A320s in Mobile.

 

Early 2013 - Airbus plans ground-breaking ceremony for A320 final assembly complex

 

2015 - First A320 to be inducted into final assembly centre

 

2016 - First delivery of an A320 scheduled to a US customer

 

2017 - Mobile FAL expected to reach peak rate of between 40 and 50 A320s per year


MOBILE, Alabama -- We apologise. It was impossible to write this blog without at least one reference to Lynyrd Skynyrd, but at least we got it out of the way right at the top. (Airbus, in a show of heroic restraint, waited until the end of the public ceremony to play Alabama's favourite tune.) Our full editorial coverage of the event in Mobile, Alabama, today will be posted shortly on the news page at Flightglobal.com, so stay tuned.
ana mrj.gifIn this decade's great narrowbody race, Mitsubishi became the first runner to publicly stumble -- again.

The Japanese airframer warned us in February that first flight of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) would be delayed from the second quarter this year.

This morning, the MRJ programme announced first flight is indeed postponed 15-18 months to the fourth quarter of 2014, which is the third quarter of the Japanese fiscal year. First delivery to launch customer All Nippon Airlines is delayed at least 18-24 months to between October 2015 to March 2016.

Mitsubishi_MRJ.jpgThe delays slightly reshuffle the official order of appearance of the six major narrowbodies now in development. The Bombardier CSeries still comes first in 2013, although there are growing doubts about this timeframe. The re-engined Airbus A320neo is scheduled to enter service in 2015. Then comes either the MRJ or the Russian MS-21 starting from late 2015 to 2016, respectively. Embraer has said the next generation E-Jet should appear between 2016-2018. Boeing, finally, has pegged entry into service of the re-engined 737 Max in 2017.

Although the MRJ programme is only four years old, this is actually the second major delay announcement. The first postponement came at the Asian Aerospace airshow in Singapore in February 2010. Mitsubishi pushed back first flight by a year as it dumped the carbon fibre wings for simpler aluminium alloy and unveiled a stretched 90-seater.

We don't know exactly why another programme delay was necessary. Mitsubishi reassures the Pratt & Whitney PW1127G geared turbofan development is going smoohtly, with first flight of the engine on a testbed aircraft scheduled later this month. MRJ only says cryptically that the latest delay will allow the designers to "confirm respective fabrication processes" and "provide sufficient time for technical studies".  

747-8F-SunriseDraft.jpgPhoto courtesy of Boeing

Six months after entry-into-service of the 747-8 Freighter, we now have the first hard indications of the new type's technical dispatch reliability, a rating that measures the number of flights canceled because of a technical problem with the aircraft. It does not count cancellations due to weather or staffing delays.

With six aircraft delivered to four 14 aircraft delivered to five operators [ED: er, slight miscount!] since 12 October, how is the 747-8F performing?

Answer: Not bad. If Boeing's numbers match those of its customers, the 747-8F is doing fine. Its performance is roughly equivalent to the Airbus A380 at the same stage in early 2008, slightly below the 777's benchmark performance in late 1995 and above the company's own forecasts. For a new type with only 30% parts commonality with its predecessor, the 747-400, that's doing okay.

How do we know this? Boeing does not reveal specific technical dispatch reliability statistics for its aircraft. But a company official, 747-8 support and services director Leslie Lauer, told us the freighter is tracking "slightly below" the 777's benchmark one-year performance. A quick check of the Flightglobal archive in 1996 revealed the number was 97.9%, which Boeing confirmed is the statistic to which Lauer was referring.

Although Boeing is justifiably proud of the 777's performance, it was actually a disappointment to launch customer United Airlines in 1995. United expected the 777 to enter service with 98.5% technical dispatch reliability after a year. After seeing reliability fluctuate as low as 96.5% and averaging 97.9%, United later acknowledged it had been a little too optimistic.

Twelve years later, Airbus repeated the same experience with the A380. The airframer actually guaranteed a 98.5% technical dispatch reliability in the first year to launch customer Singapore Airlines. After one year, SIA reported that reliability actually averaged between 97%-98%. Another customer, Emirates, reported a slightly lower dispatch reliability rating.  Each airline can measure technical dispatch reliability slightly differently, so there could be small variances in the data.

Meanwhile, Lufthansa is poised to receive the first passenger variant 747-8 Intercontinental very soon, perhaps even next week. The German carrier is no stranger to fleet introductions, having received its first A380 in 2010. By that time, the A380 had three years to mature in service with other operators. The 747-8I has only been flying for six months, but Lufthansa isn't cutting Boeing any slack.

"When we introduced the [Airbus] A380 in June 2010 we had for the first months 100% technical dispatch reliability," Lufthansa says. "So we are working very close with Boeing to make sure the 747-8 performance is matching the A380 performance."

Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A350 XWB
When A350 began assembly yesterday, the released photos from Airbus allowed for the first time a side-by-side comparison between the first two majority composite jetliners. On the left is ZA001 from May 2007, then a largely unfinished 787 and on the right is the A350 static test airframe. Most notably the overall architectural differences between Boeing's monolithic barrel and Airbus's hybrid composite and aluminum-lithium panel design are clearly illustrated with the A350's different material color compared to that of the 787.

A350-SOB-Rib-Isogrid.jpg
Another photo, or rather an excerpt of a photo, that deserves a note is a part of the A350's design that has gone undiscussed by Airbus and previously unseen is the aluminum-lithium side-of-body rib for the aircraft's center wing box. Shaped in an isogrid pattern rather than the spar and stiffener design used on the A380, the A350's rib 1 design is intended to reduce weight and assembly time as it is a single machined part rather than a collect of web, spar caps and stiffeners fastened together. It's a first for an Airbus commercial aircraft.
MSN5000_AssemblyFAL1_800.jpg
MSN5000_CenterArrival_800.jpg
MSN5000_AssemblyFAL2_800.jpg
Airbus has begun assembly of the A350 static test airframe, MSN5000, at its Toulouse facility, officially activating the new final assembly line. The December arrival of the forward fuselage from St. Nazaire was followed Wednesday by the center fuselage built up at the same French site. With both now in Toulouse, Airbus formally began joining the major structural pieces at Station 59 inside the assembly line. The wings and aft fuselage from Broughton and Hamburg, respectively, will be arriving in Toulouse in the weeks to come, says Airbus. More photos below the fold.

Assembly of MSN1, the first flying A350 test aircraft, is slated to follow in July say program sources. MSN5000 won't require systems outfitting as MSN1 does, and will proceed through the normal assembly process.

Here's a step-by-step overview of the A350 assembly flow:

Airbus A350 Final Assembly Layout

Station 59 
After arriving with sections from across the A350's pre-final assembly facilities, the fuselage structure is unloaded from the A300-600ST "Beluga" and are placed in a bay in the northwest corner of the final assembly line called Station 59. This pre-assembly position has room for two complete A350 airframes. Taking advantage of the open-ended fuselage sections, crews will install the primary interior monuments, flight and cabin crew rests without having to worry about access after the fuselage join begins.

Station 50 
After the three main fuselage sections have been prepared at Station 59, each is moved to Station 50 to begin the full mechanical fuselage join. Here the nose landing gear will be installed along with a dummy main landing gear assembly to move the airframe to the next station. This full fuselage assembly is different from the A330, which begins assembly through the join up of the wings to a center fuselage barrel. 

Station 40 
Upon rollout from Station 50, the joined fuselage will move to the south to one of two main final assembly bays to Station 40. The wings are moved by crane into position and it is here where the join takes place, along with horizontal and vertical tail plane installations and power is first activated on the aircraft. 

The A350 tooling is designed to allow the physical join to take place on separate levels from the cabin installations inside the fuselage, which can happen much earlier in the assembly process because the fuselage is ready for the interior fitting after the work at Station 50. Main landing gear installation takes place in Station 40 as well.

Station 30 
The completed airframe is then towed from Station 40 to the north part of the final assembly line to one of two positions at Station 30 for cabin completion and aircraft system tests that include check-outs of the the flight controls, flaps, slats and landing gear.

Station 18
The aircraft is then moved outside for a first spate of ground tests that can't safely or practically be completed indoors, conducting pressurization and radio evaluations before moving to the paint hangar and then to the flight line.

Station 20
After being painted, the aircraft will be moved to Station 20, which is shared with the A330 line to the west of the main A350 final assembly building. It is here where the aircraft undergoes final cabin installations and fitting of its twin Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines before moving to the flight line.

Photos Credit Airbus
Hazy Pane

SCOTTSDALE -- A busy first day at ISTAT is currently in the book and we had an opportunity to sit down with Air Lease CEO Steven Udvar-Hazy, who weighed in on a variety of topics. For a year-by-year comparison, make sure to re-read our interview with Udvar-Hazy from ISTAT 2011.

Air Lease Corp chief executive Steven Udvar-Hazy, a vocal advocate for Boeing's now-shelved New Small Airplane concept, says the airframer's strategy to develop the CFM International Leap-1B-powered 737 Max is intended as a bridge to a clean sheet design arriving in the middle of the next decade and "not a long-term solution".

A fierce battle is brewing between GE, Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney to supply as many as 3,000 engines to power the re-vamped Embraer E-Jet family.

Steven Udvar-Hazy, Air Lease Corp chief executive describes the three-way contest as "a real dogfight". He anticipates as many as 3,000 engines could be at stake through a sole-source contract to power the Embraer 198, the moniker given to the conceptual aircraft by ALC.

Lufthansa and Air Lease Corp (ALC) are vying for launch customer status on Boeing's proposed stretched 787-10X.

If Boeing moves ahead to "launch the airplane, we could be a definitive launch customer for the -10, in tandem with [ordering] some -9s. So that's in the oven," says Steven Udvar-Hazy, chief executive of ALC.

Photos Credit Boeing & Embraer
SCOTTSDALE - The International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading has significantly cemented itself as the closest thing the industry has to a US air show. The two-day conference avoids the static aircraft displays and sprawling exhibition halls, opting for a cattle auction-style format that sees airframers, engine-makers and lessors addressing the assembled delegates. 

With nearly all of commercial aircraft purchases financed in one form or another, the importance of third-parties in how the industry funds itself makes the gathering one of year's most news-worthy events. Like any big aerospace industry gathering, each tends to be a measure of instantaneous speed, not a barometer of future events. 

2011 was no different.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh in March 2011:
While we haven't ruled out a re-engine, but it's very difficult for us to put together a very compelling business case to do it. And right now, we're looking at a number of different options and we're working with many of you, our customers, we're looking at things like, what are the complexity issues are as we would introduce a new airplane to a fleet. One thing Southwest has taught us the last few years is: do not add complexity to what we do. And if we do do a new airplane, we have to be very cognizant of not requiring a lot of new training, investment of capital to make things as repeatable as we can and make this airplane as transparent in terms of introduction into service as we can.

I think the other thing we'll be looking at very hard is the residual values. Let's not do anything to make what out customers investment in worth less than it is today. Our customers tell us what they want is a game-changing airplane. They want an airplane that will give them a fuel burn that is twice as good as what they might get with a re-engine. They're telling us they want a cash operating cost reduction of well in the double digits and we're working on that, but I think we'll be producing the 737 NG for another 15 to 20 years, I really believe that.
Airbus vice president of Marketing Andrew Shankland in March 2011:
The aircraft is on time, the -900 enters service in 2013, the -800 in 2014 and the -1000 in 2015. And the engine thrust that we have available from Rolls-Royce today is certainly sufficient to power the A350-1000. There are always, let's say, discussions with customers regarding potential changes to any aircraft in the future, but when you haven't yet hit the detailed definition phase, so that's not the case, we are there with the -900, we're not yet there with the -1000. But I would like to dispel any rumors regarding, sort of: is the -1000 capable of doing the mission as advertised for not, and the answers is "it certainly is" with the current airframe design and the current engine from our engine partner Rolls-Royce.
What a difference a year makes.
A320 [F-WWBA]

February 22, 2012 marks the 25th anniversary of the first flight of the Airbus A320-100, an aircraft type that has surpassed 5,000 deliveries since its 1987 first flight from the European airframer's Toulouse, France base.

In addition to firmly establishing Airbus in the commercial marketplace, the single biggest contribution of the A320 to commercial aerospace is its digital fly-by-wire flight control system. The Airbus and Boeing philosophies for pilot control have been the centerpiece of a technology debate that has raged for a quarter century now. While the philisophical debate has diverged among airframers, the value of digital fly-by-wire implementation is settled law.

At today's Aeronautics and Space Engineering board meeting at The National Academy of Sciences, in Washington, DC, Dale Klapmeier, founder of Cirrus Aircraft, spoke of the flat safety record for general aviation which has matched the growth in the industry. In short, general aviation, unlike commercial aviation, has not gotten any safer as technology has evolved.

Cirrus was at the forefront of increasing the automation in its single-engine general aviation aircraft with the introduction of the Avidyne Entegra in 2003 aboard its four-seat SR22 aircraft. The airframer, based in Duluth, Minnesota, and now owned by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), has evolved its glass avionics to include its Garmin G1000 based Cirrus Perspective system, which features expansive "highway in the sky" synthetic vision and enhanced vision systems, as well as a "LVL" or level button to return the aircraft to straight and level flight, assuming the aircraft's bank does not exceed 75° and the pitch does not exceed 50°.

Similar avionics systems are also implemented on Beechcraft, Cessna, Diamond, Mooney, Piper, and Quest aircraft as well. 

With the technology developed by Cirrus and other general aviation airframers, Klapmeier says that a Cirrus pilot will hand fly for roughly 45 seconds, just after takeoff and just before landing.  

"There is very little airmanship left in aviation," he says.

That figure nearly mirrors that of a commercial airline pilot, though an SR22 pilot has access to virtually the same, if not more advanced avionics than those available in the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, but the difference in pilot training and experience are stark.

Klapmeier is of the opinion that training regimes that have always emphasized aviate, navigate, communicate as the tenets of flying need to add "automate" as one of its characteristics to safely bring the technology to bear to enhance the other three priorities.

On the flipside, there is a 'self-driving car' model for safety; just remove the pilot from the loop. Klapmeier suggested on Tuesday: "If you want to design an aircraft tomorrow that prevents today's accidents, put the pilot's seat backwards."

With the ubiquity of fly-by-wire on new clean sheet commercial and large business aircraft, both segments of the industry that continue to improve their respective safety records, is there a place in general aviation for hard envelope protections provided by fly-by-wire?

Photo Credit Jonathan Grondin

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