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Recently in Farnborough Air Show 2010 Category

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Trying to rip open the planet's most established - and entrenched - duopoly is not for the faint of heart.

Three years before its entry into service the world media is trumpeting the 2010 Farnborough Air Show as a failure for Bombardier without an order for the CSeries, though at this point in the new aircraft's development is a rapidly growing backlog essential?

The shopping spree witnessed at Farnborough was almost entirely for aircraft that are currently in production, with near term delivery dates attached. In part, Farnborough represented a show of pent up demand after 18 months of cautious buying.

The only aircraft not currently in service to receive firm orders at the show were 3 787-8s from Royal Jordanian and 30 Sukhoi Superjets from Kartika Airlines. Farnborough was about the aircraft of today, not the ones of tomorrow.

Let us for a moment put things into a bit of perspective: According to the Flight archive, in March 1986, two full years before its entry into service in 1988, the A320 had 100 firm orders and 157 options in the backlog.

This stands in comparison to CSeries orders three years before entry into service at 90 firm and 90 options.

Would an order represent a major boost of confidence for the program? Absolutely. Orders are the stamp of approval for the product, validating its backing by existing customers, as well as investors.  

Yet what Bombardier needed, and what it got this week, were orders for its existing commercial and business jet portfolio. From a development perspective, deposits for CSeries are not significant enough to pay for the program moving forward, what Bombardier requires is healthy cash flow through its mature aircraft programs to help pay for CSeries development.

Most importantly, Bombardier is no longer competing with today's A319 and 737-700. The product has successfully forced Boeing and Airbus to defend its territory. The CSeries on paper is a step change beyond both, but the CSeries is now shadowboxing three products that may or may not come into existence before the end of the year.

By all appearances, the big four, Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer, are playing a game of chicken, seeing who will blink first and announce their plans for their respective narrowbody products.

Airbus is believed to be pacing this decision for the industry, with one official on the propulsion side of the business telling FlightBlogger that Bombardier would prefer to give more clarity to its technical plans after Airbus's re-engining details emerge, rather than the other way around.

Boeing's company line remains firm, with the airfamer saying it will be "market driven" in its decision, at least indirectly implying that its customers are in a holding pattern for what will be offered by both airframers as the market has yet to make a decision. At this point, Boeing is hinting at a single engine choice for whatever it does next. As of April, Boeing had tested only a 737 with a CFM Leap-X engine configuration in the wind tunnel, says an engineer close to the development.

For Embraer, which was mum on its plans for the future, hinted late in the week to Brazilian newspaper Valor Economico that it would make a decision on a clean-sheet 130-seat jet by year's end. For Bombardier, its intentions are clear, but the technical details behind its new aircraft remain elusive. Industry officials say that even the geometry of the aircraft's composite wing has been a closely held secret by the Canadian airframer.

With a lack of clarity being the only constant across the world's leading airframer, how can customers possibly make a decision about which horse to back?

Though as another mid-summer show draws to a close, what Boeing, Airbus and Embraer decide to do over the next five months may decide the course of commercial aircraft development for the next decade.
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In the insanity that is a mid-summer air show, occasionally things get left behind. In this case  it was day two and day three of Flightglobal's interactive Flight Daily magazine iFlight. Make sure you take a minute to dive into both issues. We hope you enjoy them as much as we enjoyed putting them together.

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FARNBOROUGH -- While I'm back officially in DC right now, I've got several more posts in the pipeline from this week's Farnborough Air Show. On Wednesday, I had the opportunity to get onboard the Suhkoi Superjet while it was on static display at the show. While Mary Kirby focused on the cabin, I decided to spend some time in the front office of the new 100-seat jetliner. Sukhoi strongly emphasizes the western nature of the aircraft's design, perhaps most notable is the influence of the Airbus flight deck philosophy. 

The fly-by-wire aircraft features Thales avionics with an Intergrated Modular Avionics (IMA) and Aircraft Full Duplex switched data network (AFDX) ethernet architecture, which is nearly identical to the system supplied for the A380 and similar to 787. In fact, the folks at Superjet International are prone to calling it "The Little A380". 

The IMA architecture requires fewer avionics components, and easier disassembly, maintenance and repair, as well as simplification of fault isolation and upgrade implementation. AFDX requires fewer connections with exponentially increased capacity to move data over the previous ARINC 429 standard.

The sidestick controls are notable, as Boeing was a consultant on the program. Boeing has always included yoke controls on its aircraft, its differentiator over Airbus products. The sidestick drives electro-hydraulic servo actuators in the ailerons, elevators, rudder, and ground and multifunction spoilers.
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FARNBOROUGH -- US carrier Virgin America has announced its intent to order 40 A320 aircraft equipped with sharklets plus 20 more options.

Deliveries of the aircraft are expected to begin in 2013. This order, when firmed, will triple the airline's fleet.

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FARNBOROUGH -- Since its first flight in February, Boeing's 747-8F flight test program has
completed roughly a third of its 1600h flight test campaign, though steady momentum has been elusive, as the new jumbo freighter has encountered one time consuming technical issue after another.

The sum of three main issues, including two more recent ones, have eaten Boeing's remaining margin, causing Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and CEO, Jim Albaugh, to caution that "The entry into service could slip into 2011."

With the landing gear door flap vibration issue now resolved, flight test challenges have given way to troubleshooting two primary issues.

The first centers on the aircraft's inboard ailerons and the power control unit that drives them. Boeing found that when a pilot makes a slow input on the jumbo jet's controls the high pressures in the hydraulic system cause an oscillation, requiring a fix in the actuator, according to two 747-8 program sources.

The second, the freighter was found to encounter a structural flutter at mid-weight near cruise speed, requiring engineers to dampen out the aeroelastic vibration. Options for resolution include adding structure to the wing or potentially developing a new control law to avoid the condition.

RC501, the lead flight test aircraft based at Boeing Field in Seattle, has for the last month and a half has been dedicated to trouble-shooting both issues. Programme sources say the company aims to complete resolution on the flutter issue by the close of the month.

Boeing declined to address the specific issues encountered by the program, though the company continues to caution that while first delivery to Cargolux remains "at risk", certification is remains targeted for year end, adding:
The 747-8 Freighter flight test development program is a dynamic process of performance demonstration, validation and issue identification and resolution. To date, we've flown approximately 550 hours and completed substantial airworthiness, aerodynamic performance and systems testing. Over the course of testing, technical issues are discovered and resolved. As we advance toward completion of flight testing, fewer and fewer discoveries are expected. As we have previously demonstrated, when an issue arises, we address it immediately.
With five months to go in that goal, Boeing's remaining flight test margin is virtually gone, with the company's Flight Operations, Test & Validation organization looking for ways to find - or create - contingency where available. Boeing has already opted to grow its flight test fleet from three to four, with the addition of RC503, which may fly before the week is out, heading immediately into high intensity radiated field (HIRF) testing in Arizona.

Compared to its composite stablemate the 787, which has progressed more swiftly through its flight test campaign, 747-8F has struggled to find its footing along side the company's flagship program. While still technically a derivative aircraft of the 747 family, the aircraft's all-new fly-by-wire wing, engines and avionics, make it a significantly different aircraft from the variants that preceded it.

The length of its approximately ten month flight test program is on par with past Boeing programs, though the pressures of dual flight testing both the 747-8 and 787 side-by-side made its schedule aggressive.

Yet, while it has been Boeing's signature product for the last 40 years, the 747 has never been the company's primary focus even in its earliest days competing for resources against the  Supersonic Transport program. As it has progressed, Boeing has incorporated advancements developed for other new programs back into the jumbo, enabling step changes in efficiency during the type's four decades in service.

Boeing holds orders for 108 747-8 aircraft, including 76 of the freighter variant.
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Sunset over Farnborough, originally uploaded by flightblogger.

FARNBOROUGH -- Day three is done. Dusk speaks for itself.

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FARNBOROUGH -- Finding time at the show to download, tweak and upload photos during an air show is harder than finding a (insert snark here) at an air show. I've uploaded 177 photos from Sunday and Monday-Wednesday's will follow tomorrow. I've got about 935 to sort through, so it may take a little. This set is dominated by 787's arrival on Sunday and the tour on board, though also includes A400M, Qatar's 777-300ER and Etihad Crystal Cargo's A330F. Enjoy.

FARNBOROUGH -- Pearl Aircraft Corporation, a new Bermuda based lessor, has announced memorandum of understanding to purchase 30 Sukhoi Superjet aircraft plus 15 options. The order marks the first order for the 100 seat jetliner in the North American market.

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Day Two Order Tally:
Airbus:
Hong Kong Airlines - converted 15 XA330 to 15 x A350 (MoU) ordered 10 x A330 (MoU)
LAN - 50 x A320 (MoU)
RBS Aviation - 53 x A320 (previously booked as unidentified customer)
Total - 91 x A320, 20 x A321, 11 x A330

ATR:
Air Lease Corp - 10 x ATR-72-600
Azul - 20 x ATR-72-600
Golden Airlines - 2 x ATR-72-500
Lao Airlines - 2 x ATR-72-500
Total - 30 x ATR-72-600, 4 x ATR-72-500

Boeing:
Air Lease Corp - 54 x 737 + 6 x 737 (options)
Avolon Air Lease - 12 x 737 (ordered in 2009)
RBS Aviation - 43 x 737-800 (previously booked as an unidentified customer)
Royal Jordanian Airlines - 3 x 787-8 (previously ordered as an unidentified customer)
Total - 109 x 737, 12 x 777-300ER

Bombardier:
Vista Jet - 4 x Global Express XRS, 2 Challenger 605
Russian Customer - 4 x Global Express XRS
Total - 10 x Global 5000 + XRS, 3 x Challenger 605

Embraer:
Air Lease Corp - 15 x E190
Azul - 5 x E195
Flybe - 35 x E175
Trip Airlines - 2 x E190
Total - 35 x E175, 17 x E190, 5 x E195

Sukhoi:
Orient Thai Airlines - 12 x SSJ-100 Super Jets
Total - 42 x SSJ-100
News Wrap:
FARNBOROUGH -- Over the last twelve hours the conversation here at the show has shifted. From an industry left wondering if Bombardier's new jet would leave its mark on the show to strong signals that CSeries order(s) may be just hours away.

While the Canadian airframer maintains that the air show is one event in the course of the year, a perennially impatient industry is caught in the expectations game. The summer mega shows are akin to Major League Baseball's All Star Game, home field advantage in the World Series to the winner. Yet the pennant is won over 162 other games.

Though the significance of gathering the industry's All Stars together in one place cannot be understated. The world is your stage, and shaping perception, especially for a new market entrant, is reality. Bombardier's CSeries may just be ready for its chance in the starting line up on Wednesday at Farnborough.

Stay tuned.

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