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Recently in COMAC Category

Comac ARJ21-700 B-1110L

WEST PALM BEACH -- Two weeks ago when Bomabardier Commercial Aircraft President Gary Scott emphatically denied his company was pursuing a stretched CS500, pushing the CSeries into direct competition with the 737-800 and A320, many in the industry wondered why the Canadian airframer would rule out such a possibility. Within the context of the newly-signed Comac partnership, Scott's comments are now fully explained.

With no intention to compete or overlap products with Comac, Bombardier is cultivating a partner with seemingly limitless access to capital (and patience) to establish itself in both domestic and export markets. 

If the duopoly wasn't dead before, the last nail in its coffin was hammered in on March 24.

The Sino-Canadian agreement opens the door beyond just Bombardier and Comac, with Pratt & Whitney CEO David Hess seeing opportunity to accelerate his company's "on-going discussion" with the Chinese airframer to offer its PW1000G on the C919, placing it in direct competition with the A320neo, on which the engine is also an option.

"We're not privy to the conversations between Comac and Bombardier, but clearly there could be opportunity for collaboration on all the platforms," says Hess.

Hess says Comac is studying applications of the PW1000G on the C919, ARJ21 as well as potential new designs.

"They're very excited about a geared turbofan," says Hess. "They know where we are in development, they've seen the engine. In fact, we've had Comac people down here at test stands. So they're pretty excited about it. Certainly their initial selection was Leap-X, they'll start a flight test program with Leap-X, but they seem to be very interested in flying the next generation product family, either on derivatives of the C919, the ARJ21 - they are studying possible applications for ARJ21 - and for and certainly clean sheet paper airplanes."

In the near term, Bombardier and Comac are set to begin commonality studies to find overlap between the 110 to 149-seat CSeries and 156-seat C919, opportunities exists where the same suppliers cover both aircraft, including, but not limited to, the aircraft's Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion avionics navigation and communication systems, Liebherr landing gear and Honeywell auxiliary power unit.

While the P&W may have a chance to add itself to that list of common suppliers, the opportunities created by the tie up is just one of the many questions that will begin to define the emergent strategic partnership and its potential to re-shape the global aerospace landscape.

Benjamin Boehm, Bombardier's vice president for international business, was instrumental in bringing this partnership to the fore. Having quietly left his post as vice president of commercial aircraft programs in November, the new role has his guiding the strategic machinations on an partnership that could crack the duopoly in a way Bombardier never could on its own.

The language of the press release points to significantly more than an "arms-length" partnership between the two companies, but the fundamental question for both partners in this deal is whether or not the actions reflect a long-term or short-term link up.

In the context of Piepenbrock's Red-Blue, is the partnership meant for the betterment and improvement of both OEMs with a stake in either's success? Or is this tie up a way to extract expertise and market access in the near term? The push toward commonality and part procurement would suggest that incremental technological and supply chain integration of the C919 and CSeries brings the two closer together in a way that the industry has never before seen.

Yet the key element Bombardier brings to the table may be less tangible, but no less useful for Comac. Creating discreet aircraft systems is far from a simple process, but integrating all those systems together into a self-sufficient airframe is the 'secret sauce' to building aircraft and Bombardier has this in spades. Tactically, the partnership allows an OEM-level of systems integration expertise to flow into the C919, one element missing from Chinese commercial aerospace.

"I think it will certainly give Bombardier access to the Chinese market place, and maybe some Chinese capital, and vice versa it will give the Chinese access to Bomardier's great technical and development capabilities," says Hess.

What remains to be seen is how Boeing and Airbus react to the partnership and whether or not the extensive efforts of both will remain sufficiently recognized by those in the central government as aircraft purchasing decisions are made with the 13th five year plan just beginning to take shape now.

Airbus was previously seen as having the biggest manufacturing presence in China with its Tianjin A320 final assembly line, while Boeing used selected structural component suppliers for all of its commercial programs. Bombardier has stepped beyond both, likely delivering access to the world's single fastest growing market.

No doubt with yesterday's publication of the WTO ruling, Boeing and Airbus have to be eyeing the Sino-Canadian partnership with great interest. How funds - if any - flow between the companies and their two governments, may spark a new chapter in the battle on research and development subsidies.

As the incumbent duopolists, any threat to Boeing and Airbus's status is sure to be met with fierce resistance, but does the tie up actually begin to tie the hands of the US and Europe who want the same access to China as they do today? With a strong desire to continue to sell their respective products in China, does any swipe at CSeries become an indirect swipe at the Chinese? Does a tie-up start to look more like a growing political alliance as the Airbus and Boeing - as mature players - fight to hold their industrial status?

The duopoly is dead, long live the duopoly.
First day back at my desk in DC since November 12 following China and Thanksgiving, and I'm a bit slow getting back up to speed today, but wanted to share some Monday news items to chew on:

ANA says 787 delays are "a great disappointment" and the carrier is "pushing" Boeing to "present the detailed cause of the irregularities" resulting from the November 9, ZA002 fire, while China Eastern is considering canceling its order for 15 787s over the delays, which are estimated to stretch another six months.

Meanwhile, A350 supplier Aerolia plans to begin production of the composite nose panels and shells for MSN001 on Tuesday after Spirit AeroSystems made its first 64ft 6in Section 15 crown panel in North Carolina last week. Delivery of the first production aircraft is now slated for the second half of 2013. Meanwhile in Sydney, the Qantas A380 fleet is returning to service again, gradually.

On the engine front, CSeries' PW1524G powerplant has passed 80h of testing, and Pratt & Whitney says: "We have not uncovered anything that tells us we need a major design or architecture change." Though Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker has cooled again to CSeries, just as SAS says it's the leading contender for a 55-aircraft order.

On the business jet side of things heading for the Middle Eastern Business Aviation show in Dubai next week, it looks like landing gear supplier Heroux-Devtek has won a contract for a Dassault business jet that Dassault whose existence the airframer has not yet announced.

Over on the new content side of things, here's an up close look at the ARJ21 from Zhuhai:

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ZHUHAI -- At a briefing and announcement at Air Show China Tuesday morning, Comac announced an order for 100 narrowbody C919 aircraft to Air China, China Southern, China Eastern, Hainan Airlines, CBD Leasing and GECAS.

While foreign journalists were banned from the event hosted by state-owned aircraft maker Comac, a side door was left ajar prior to the commencement of the event. Though it was staffed with a police officer, some journalists, includling this one, were provided an unobstructed view of a marketing film for the C919 produced by Comac. Most notably was the presentation of the latest specifications of the new aircraft, but also featured six models that are planned.

These models included the single-class 168-seat (156-seat two class) baseline model, as well as stretched, shrunken, freighter, business configuration and "special" variants. With these plans revealed, Comac's six models appear to be readying for competition against Boeing's 737-700, -700C, -900ER, BBJ and Airbus A319, A321, A320P2F and ACJ.
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ZHUHAI -- Comac's C919 narrowbody is set for its mega debut here at Air Show China with orders from six launch customers, including GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS).

While the total size of the order has not yet been disclosed, Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, Hainan Airlines, Chinese lessor CLC and GECAS are lined up to be the first customers for the 160-seat, CFM Leap-X-powered jetliner.

China's domestic market is forecast to be the fastest growth market on the planet with 7.9% year-over-year average growth between 2009 and 2029, according to Boeing. Seventy-one percent, or 3,090 of the 4,330 aircraft needed in China over the next two decades are estimated to be narrowbodies supporting the intra-China market.

An official announcement is expected at 10:30 AM local time here in Southern Eastern China.

These two stories had to be placed side-by-side, because while they are unrelated in subject matter, they are very related. Access to China is tops on the minds of every aerospace company on Earth and with the Comac ARJ21 coming online and the C919 not far behind, what happens to joint ventures with Chinese companies once domestically made competing products are available is anyone's guess, but this episode may serve as a guide for the future.

Shot:
"Very few customers today are willing to purchase aerospace products or services without expecting some form of industrial partnership, through global supply chains".
-Boeing CEO Jim McNerney
McNerney tells unions Boeing's global supply chain is crucial
Seattle Times
October 7, 2010
Chaser:
Brazil Doesn't Expect China To Approve Embraer Plans To Stay
Wall Street Journal
October 7, 2010

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA (ERJ, EMBR3.BR) likely won't get authorization from China to change over production lines, meaning the company will probably close its factory in the Asian country in 2011, a person in the Brazilian government said Friday.

Embraer, as the world's fourth-largest plane maker is known, is phasing out construction of its 50-seat ERJ-145 plane after it delivers the last of its orders in March. Embraer sees no demand in the region for the smaller airplane and is seeking authorization from China's government to begin production on larger, 120-seat planes, the company's press office said Thursday.

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SINGAPORE -- Roaming the display floor while it's still being set up one of my perennial air show rituals. Walking amongst the organized chaos as the show is set up often yields interesting observations on the products on display for the week. At China's Comac stand, the ARJ21 and C919 are prominently displayed in company colors. The ARJ21 even includes a cutaway fuselage to reveal the interior arrangement of the five-abreast economy seating and four-abreast first class.

As you look to the back of the aircraft, you'll notice the gray outline of the rear exit. Curiously, it sits directly next to the inlet of the aircraft's General Electric CF34 engines. I'm no expert on aircraft safety, but common sense tells me that in the event of an emergency evacuation, waiting until the engines have sufficiently spooled down might not be the most realistic option. Comac said just last week that it wants to see FAA approval for the ARJ21. I would have to believe that emergency evacuation is going to be close to the top of the list of items the FAA wants to discuss with Comac.

Last month, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) selected the CFM (GE & Snecma) LEAP-X1C engine to power the C919, the nation's entrant into the 150 to 200 seat market. The selection of the next generation CFM engine gives the LEAP-X a launch customer that comes with a guaranteed market: China.

That fact alone may be the final catalyst for a major leap forward from Boeing and Airbus,  as airlines continue to call for all-new designs from both air framers.

History, while not repeating itself, is once again rhyming. The calls to replace the 737, and now the A320, are loud and clear, though top engineers at both companies believe that the gains of 20-30% efficiency sought by the airlines just aren't possible with today's engine technology.

We again hear calls about blunting the introduction of new aircraft; how either company could stop the CSeries CS100/300 and MS-21, both powered by the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engine, and Comac C919 right in its tracks with a fresh design from the American or European airframers. 

Between 1984 and 1988 when Airbus was moving beyond the A300 and A310 into the single aisle market to develop the A320, Boeing was creating an expanded 737 family with the -300 -400 and -500. 

The 1986 Northwest Airlines order for 100 A320 aircraft changed the face of aerospace, giving Airbus a significant early foothold in the US market.

Bob Alizart, executive assistant to former Airbus CEO and managing director Jean Pierson, said of the A320 in John Newhouse's 2007 Boeing versus Airbus 
"Boeing should have killed this upstart. If Boeing had produced a clean sheet of paper the A320 never would have become Airbus's bread and butter."
But coming off of the 757 and 767 development programs in the early 80s, the family of three major derivatives for the 737 was the only feasible course. 

The same calls were reiterated in 1996 when United ordered A319s, which were competing against the 737 Classics. Rather than a clean sheet design that would have been prohibitively expensive following the estimated $14 billion price tag of the 777, Boeing developed the 737 Next Generation family.

Though the Boeing strategy hardly needs any vindication stronger than the 7177 orders earned since March 1984 when the A320-100 was launched, yet Airbus has earned 6467 orders since then as well. Arguably, the competition has allowed both products to survive as long as they have, with perpetual improvements continually introduced.

Though the C919's LEAP-X selection potentially presents a unique competitive landscape for Boeing and Airbus in China. Boeing estimates China to be a 3,770 aircraft, $400 billion market over the next 20 years. More than 2,600 of those are forecast to be narrowbody aircraft.

China has also erected what the US is calling a "trade barrier" that provides products accredited for "indigenous innovation" preference in government purchases, which could potentially pose threat to Boeing when it comes to fleet acquisition for state-owned airlines. 

Once again, while the impetus for a clean-sheet design from Boeing and Airbus remains, the commercial justification for such a course is unfeasible with significant resources already devoted the 787 and A350 programs. However, re-engining the 737 and A320 to take on the C919 and (a potentially even higher-capacity) CSeries in the heart of the narrowbody market is looking like the most likely course of action.

A recent report by Air Insight concludes that a 2010 announcement of re-engining for both the A320 and 737 is virtual certainty. Though the decision to re-engine both aircraft rather than develop an entirely new type will put the 737 and A320 on roughly equal footing with their new similarly-powered Canadian, Russian and Chinese competitors rather than blunting their rise before even getting off the ground. As a result, Boeing and Airbus's market share in the 100-200-seat category - now about 88% - could slip to as low as 40% in competition with new airframers.

While China and the C919 are far from the only impetus driving a re-engining decision by Airbus and Boeing, any roadblock to accessing the Chinese market is sure to push each airframer's decision to re-engine their narrowbody cashcows that much closer.

The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China has been sharing details about its new C919 aircraft and its early vital statistics have it taking a market space directly between the Boeing 737-800/A320-200 and the smaller 737-700/A319-100.

The C919 will seat 168 in a single-class economy configuration or 156 in a mixed class arrangement with two variants, a standard and extended range model. The standard range will fly 2,200 nm and 3,000 nm for the extended range model. The range comparison puts the performance of the C919 slightly below that of the comparable narrowbody offerings from Airbus and Boeing. Flight also reported from Asian Aerospace 2009 that Comac plans smaller (130-seat) and larger (190-seat) variants of the C919.

This particular date, September 9, 2009, or 09/09/09 no matter how you write your date, actually holds the explanation for why the C919 is called the C919. Nine is a number of special significance in Chinese culture. Just as the number eight was selected for the 787-8 and the A380-800 as a Chinese symbol of good luck, Comac opted to use 9 for its symbolism as well.

According to Wikipedia:

The number 9 (九, Pinyin: jiŭ, jyutping: gau2), being the greatest of single-digit numbers, was historically associated with the Emperor of China; the Emperor's robes often had nine dragons, and Chinese mythology held that the dragon has nine children.

Moreover, the number 9 is a homophone of the word for "longlasting" (久), and as such is often used in weddings.

Longevity appears to be at the center of Boeing's thinking about its future Chinese competitor as well as well. Boeing CEO Jim McNerney last week addressed the question of longevity and customer commitment to Chinese commercial aircraft.

If you're sitting on a panel in 10 years talking about a Chinese participation in the manufacturing of airplanes, what kinds of things do you think you'll be saying regarding technical proficiency, marketing success, product design globally?

I think we'll be saying that technically, they can do it. I don't know if it's 10 years or 15 years, but -- I would still guess at that stage, though, that customer acceptance will still be out in front of them.

Because when you build these machines, the issue is rarely, can you build it? The issue is, will the company stand behind it for 25 years? And will the company have the wherewithal to evolve derivatives the next fleet of airplanes, and all the services that come with selling these things?

I mean, when you look at a typical airplane and you sell it to somebody, the engine is rebuilt a couple of times; the airplane is rebuilt a couple of times; there's improvements that are spiraled in while you do that. And so a customer needs to see an enterprise that will not only serve them but will have the wherewithal to keep improving the product. And that is what the Chinese will have to eventually overcome before they sell a lot of these to a lot of customers.

But technically, they do a lot of the components today. They're learning how to assemble them in Tianjin right now. They've got to overcome the Shanghai experience in the late '80s, in terms of customer perception. But technically, 10 to 15 years; customer acceptance a little bit beyond that. That would be their challenge.

Every new aircraft model tends to invite comparisons to previous models that have come before it. Fellow journalist and blogger Kieran Daly joked that it looked like a Bombraer-Boebus C7320. The one element that jumped out at me were the engines, which bear a striking resemblance to the GEnx-1B and Trent 1000 nacelles on the 787 with the elongated engine cowl for improved laminar flow.

On the supplier side, Comac has said CFM, GE and P&W are bidding to power the narrowbody and will be selected by year's end. Flight also reports that:
Goodrich, meanwhile, has formed a joint venture with Xian Aircraft in China in an effort to supply the C919's landing gear and Honeywell, which provides flight control systems for Chinese commercial aircraft, has held talks with Comac.
Comac has also touted an efficiency improvement of 15% over the A320 and 737 while offering the aircraft for a lower cost than its western competitors, setting up a price war if the market is receptive to the product, especially outside of China's borders.

First flight of the C919 is scheduled for 2014 with entry into service in 2016.

Source: Air Transport Intelligence news

First flight of ARJ21 delayed
Leithen Francis, Singapore (03Mar08, 03:04 GMT, 162 words)

First flight of China’s ARJ21-700 has been delayed and the company has yet to fix a new date for first flight.

The ARJ21-700 had its roll-out last December as scheduled and was due to have its first test flight in March this year but a spokesman for the aircraft marker in Shanghai says in an email to ATI that “it will not happen in March”.

He says the first flight may be sometime before July this year but the company has yet to set a date.

The ARJ21-700 is a 90-seat regional jet aircraft by China Aviation Industry Corp. I Commercial Aircraft (ACAC).

ACAC oversees the programme and has said earlier it aims to have the aircraft receive Chinese certification in 2009’s third quarter in time for first delivery to launch customer Shandong Airlines before the end of 2009.

This aircraft is assembled at Shanghai Aircraft (SAC) and uses major sub-assemblies from China Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC) I factories around the country.

The Chinese AVIC I Advanced Regional Jet for the 21st Century (ARJ21-700) rolled out on Friday afternoon in Shanghai. This is a major milestone in Chinese aerospace. This is the first commercial jet offering in Chinese history. AVIC announced a 100 aircraft order by Kunpeng Airlines, a joint venture between China and Mesa Air Group, bringing the order total to 170. The 70 to 95 seat aircraft is powered by two General Electric CF34-10A turbofans at 15,332 lbs. of thrust each.

Bombardier and AVIC have decided to collaborate on the development of the larger ARJ21-900. This collaboration may actually lead to trouble for Bombardier if the -700 begins to eat into its market share on the CRJ.

One thing that deserves special attention is the design of this aircraft. Though it does bear a striking resemblance to a western counterpart, what strikes me when looking at these photographs, which were taken by Flight's Leithen Francis, is the very troubling location of the aft emergency exits. If you look closely as these photographs, you'll notice that the aft exit is directly in front of the engine inlets. In the event of an emergency evacuation, passengers will be exiting dangerously close to the engine, which could be potentially spinning and/or on fire at the time. I cannot imagine that safety regulators will be content with this design, nor should they.

Overall, the introduction of a new national player in commercial aircraft design and manufacture is a very bright point for the industry which will only serve to drive new partnerships, innovation, research and development. The more choices the market has, the better the products the flying public gets to enjoy.

All Photos Courtesy of Leithen Francis
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Many more photos below the fold.

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