Recently in Embraer Category

In this decade's great narrowbody race, Mitsubishi became the first runner to publicly stumble -- again.

The Japanese airframer warned us in February that first flight of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) would be delayed from the second quarter this year.

This morning, the MRJ programme announced first flight is indeed postponed 15-18 months to the fourth quarter of 2014, which is the third quarter of the Japanese fiscal year. First delivery to launch customer All Nippon Airlines is delayed at least 18-24 months to between October 2015 to March 2016.

The delays slightly reshuffle the official order of appearance of the six major narrowbodies now in development. The Bombardier CSeries still comes first in 2013, although there are growing doubts about this timeframe. The re-engined Airbus A320neo is scheduled to enter service in 2015. Then comes either the MRJ or the Russian MS-21 starting from late 2015 to 2016, respectively. Embraer has said the next generation E-Jet should appear between 2016-2018. Boeing, finally, has pegged entry into service of the re-engined 737 Max in 2017.

Although the MRJ programme is only four years old, this is actually the second major delay announcement. The first postponement came at the Asian Aerospace airshow in Singapore in February 2010. Mitsubishi pushed back first flight by a year as it dumped the carbon fibre wings for simpler aluminium alloy and unveiled a stretched 90-seater.

We don't know exactly why another programme delay was necessary. Mitsubishi reassures the Pratt & Whitney PW1127G geared turbofan development is going smoohtly, with first flight of the engine on a testbed aircraft scheduled later this month. MRJ only says cryptically that the latest delay will allow the designers to "confirm respective fabrication processes" and "provide sufficient time for technical studies".  

Three weeks ago Embraer was "seriously studying the possibiliy of a return to turboprop manufacture".

Not anymore.

Today. we asked Frederico Curado, Embraer chief executive, if there was any chance that Embraer might still launch a new turboprop to compete with the Bombardier Q400 and the ATR 42/72 family.

Curado, who held a press conference at the US Chamber of Commerce, said "no" in no uncertain terms. He also may have sneaked in a veiled dig at his Canadian rival, claiming the turboprop market can sustain only one manufacturer. Embraer competes with Bombardier on regional jets, but not directly with ATR on regional turboprops.

Here's the transcript of our conversation:

FLIGHTGLOBAL: Some of your competitors are looking at new turboprops and you have looked at that in the past as well, the recent past. Have you looked at that again in the recent - very recent - past perhaps as those developments, you know, continue?

CURADO: Your question is about turboprops and whether we have looked at that recently. The answer is yes we have. And again we continue - we don't think this is the best investment today. Last year, some roughly 150 or so turboprops were sold. The numbers are not precise but let's say 150 or 143 were sold by ATR [ED: ATR actually sold 157], and only seven or nine Q400s [ED: It was seven]. It just confirmed our assessment of the market that this is a market which has a size for one manufacturer. Two may be already kind of complicated. And a third player? Unless there is a huge breakthrough in technology, which we don't see there - the engines can probably bring some advantage - but it's too small a market to justify a huge investment in our point of view. We are really focusing on the E-Jets for the time-being. 

We received the tip at noon: Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Embraer were going to make an "important announcement" downtown at the US Chamber of Commerce at 15:30. Jim Albaugh and Frederico Curado, CEOs of both companies, would be there. That's all we needed. We dropped our afternoon plans, jumped in a taxi and headed for Lafayette Square, the chamber's strategic location caddy-corner to the White House.

The dream headline was our goal. Something like, "Boeing, Embraer partner to develop next-generation single-aisle", had a nice ring to it. Alas, it was just a dream.

As more journalists arrived, the press aides of both companies attempted to lower our expectations. No specific projects would be announced, they said. Then, the aides uttered those awful three words, the term that kills all headlines: memorandum of understanding, or MoU.

We're not saying all MoUs are uninteresting to journalists, but there's a reason why Googling the terms "mou" and "few details" brings up 91,500 results.

In truth, we probably should have known better. Boeing is the aerospace industry king of the MoU -- and we don't mean just the kind that lead to aircraft orders. Boeing has been signing MoUs all over the world. It is already bound to "develop materials and systems" for South Korea, to share "key business and manufacturing tools" with India, and to provide an Israeli-Brazilian firm "opportunities" to work on the Super Hornet fighter.

Boeing even signed an MoU with Embraer -- and, in fact, Airbus -- last year to work jointly on bio-fuels. When it comes to MoUs, Boeing never leaves an "IOU".

It's possible, of course, this MoU will be different. It was signed as part of a far larger event that brought Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff to the White House today. Indeed, the aviation agreement was only a footnote in a broader diplomatic discussion between the two countries over new collaboration on energy, defence and scientific research. It just so happens that it comes at a particularly sensitive moment for the top commercial aviation manufacturers of both countries.  

Boeing right now really wants to sell Super Hornets to Brazilian air force and navy. Embraer wants probably even more to sell Super Tucanos to the US Air Force.

Each is the largest commercial aircraft manufacturer in the two most populous countries in the Americas, yet they have no real track record of collaboration on anything despite almost no overlapping market segments. Embraer, meanwhile, is searching for new ways to expand its phenomenal growth spurt over the last two decades, but has already conceded the over-130-seat market to Airbus and Boeing. At some point, Embraer may decide it needs to partner with Boeing or Airbus to continue its growth, or it can try to keep expanding within its already defined pocket of commercial and military aircraft. For Embraer, perhaps an MoU signed in the shadow of the White House may tip the scales of history slightly towards Boeing.

Of course, it's hard to fit all of that in a headline. 

March 27, 2009:

Embraer to decide on larger aircraft within 18 to 24 months
Embraer expects to decide whether to move forward with development of a larger commercial aircraft within the next 18 to 24 months.

During an earnings conference call today, Embraer president and CEO Frederico Fleury Curado said: "We keep looking into the whole section of commercial aircraft [from] small to 150 seats or so."

Embraer in engine talks as it studies clean-sheet airliner
Embraer is talking to General Electric, Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney about new-generation engines to power a potential clean-sheet airliner design under study which is larger than the E-Jet family, a top Embraer official reveals.
...
However, while P&W "started this race with the geared turbofan, and GE and Rolls are very seriously looking at new technology for a new generation engine", Embraer does not see "enough maturity to make a decision at this point", says Kern, adding: "Maybe in 18 to 24 months we'll have a better, more clearer view about that."

Embraer to decide on new jet in 12-18 months-report
(Reuters) - Embraer (EMBR3.SA)(ERJ.N), the world's biggest regional aircraft maker, will take more than one year to decide whether to build a new family of jets, Chief Executive Officer Frederico Curado told newspaper Valor Economico on Wednesday.

"We have to make a decision in the short to medium term, and that would be something between 12 and 18 months," Curado told Valor. The Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil-based company is a global leader in 70-to-120-seat aircraft.

Listen to an Embraer technical briefing on the Legacy 500/450 fly-by-wire system with Fabrício Caldeira, flight control laws manager (first speaker), and chief project pilot Eduardo Camelier:

For as long as there has been fly-by-wire on aircraft, there's been a debate about how to best utilize the electronic flight control system and where to draw the line between pilot freedom and hard and fast boundaries protecting the aircraft and its occupants. This debate is far from settled with the most famous dispute between Boeing and Airbus charting different courses through computer driven flight control actuation.

These two stories had to be placed side-by-side, because while they are unrelated in subject matter, they are very related. Access to China is tops on the minds of every aerospace company on Earth and with the Comac ARJ21 coming online and the C919 not far behind, what happens to joint ventures with Chinese companies once domestically made competing products are available is anyone's guess, but this episode may serve as a guide for the future.

Shot:

"Very few customers today are willing to purchase aerospace products or services without expecting some form of industrial partnership, through global supply chains".

-Boeing CEO Jim McNerney
McNerney tells unions Boeing's global supply chain is crucial
Seattle Times
October 7, 2010

Chaser:

Brazil Doesn't Expect China To Approve Embraer Plans To Stay
Wall Street Journal
October 7, 2010

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA (ERJ, EMBR3.BR) likely won't get authorization from China to change over production lines, meaning the company will probably close its factory in the Asian country in 2011, a person in the Brazilian government said Friday.

Embraer, as the world's fourth-largest plane maker is known, is phasing out construction of its 50-seat ERJ-145 plane after it delivers the last of its orders in March. Embraer sees no demand in the region for the smaller airplane and is seeking authorization from China's government to begin production on larger, 120-seat planes, the company's press office said Thursday.

When I sat down to think about the remaining thirteen and a half weeks of 2010, it became immediately apparent how pivotal this time will be for the future of commercial and business aviation. Decisions from Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Bombardier and Gulfstream will shape the industry in 2011 and 2012 in the near term, but these same decisions could guide commercial and business aerospace for the next decade to come.