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| Distrust could thwart American deal with Iran |
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By Marwan Al Kabalan
Iran’s initial response to the great powers’ offer to defuse the crisis over its nuclear programme has revived the dwindling optimism about the possibility of preventing an almost inevitable confrontation with Washington.
The offer was carried to Tehran by Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy commissioner, and approved by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) plus Germany.
The most important element in the take-or-leave deal was Washington’s agreement to remove certain economic sanctions against Iran that date back to the 1979 revolution and to talk directly with the Iranian government if it agrees to freeze enrichment of uranium in its nuclear plants.
Despite its “positive” reaction to the US offer, Tehran remains suspicious about the Bush administration’s sudden interest in diplomacy to resolve the crisis over its nuclear programme.
Iranian leaders believe that the key US objective of this generous offer is to buy it some time to further undercut Iran’s influence in Iraq and to redeploy the bulk of its forces in the war-stricken Arab country before the military strike.
Iran also suspects that President George W. Bush might be seeking a Libya-like diplomatic victory to enhance the chances of his Republican Party in the mid-term elections, due to be held later this year.
If these doubts turn to be true, Iran is very unlikely to agree to the US peace offer and, hence, give Bush a lifeline to restore public confidence in his leadership.
Iran has done this before and could do it again.
In 1979 and in response to President Jimmy Carter’s decision to allow the ousted Shah of Iran to receive medical treatment in the US, Iranian students stormed the US embassy in Tehran and took its diplomats as hostages.
Fearing that the hostage crisis might affect his chances for re-election, Carter tried to strike a deal with the new Iranian leadership. He offered to resume arms shipment to Iran in exchange for releasing the US diplomats.
But, Iranian leaders, wanting to punish Carter and his National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who pledged earlier to support the Shah until the “last drop of Iranian blood”, declined the offer.
They, instead, reached an understanding with Carter’s rival, Ronald Reagan.
Reagan’s advisers asked the Iranian to delay the release of the hostages well until after the presidential elections.
On January 20, 1980 the day Reagan was sworn in as president Tehran released the US diplomats.
Undermining Bush’s chances for regaining public trust won’t be the only factor that might hinder a deal between the US and Iran, however. Iranians claim that they have been betrayed by the Bush administration twice before.
In 2001, Iran helped the US depose the Taliban government in Kabul. Iran was rewarded by including it in the “Axis of Evil” alongside Iraq and North Korea.
In 2003, Iran helped the US depose another key rival, Saddam Hussain.
Immediately after the invasion, Iran offered the US a deal to turn a new page in their relations. In recent weeks, the US media reported that an Iranian peace proposal was conveyed to the Bush administration via the Swiss embassy in Tehran shortly after the invasion.
In it Iran offered to recognise the state of Israel within its 1967 borders, put pressure on Hizbullah and the Palestinian groups to moderate their stand vis-à-vis Israel and sign the additional protocols of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The Bush administration rejected the Iranian offer and reprimanded the Swiss embassy, which takes care of US affairs in Iran, for accepting to carry the Iranian proposal.
The US reaction assured Iran that the US will not accept less than overthrowing its regime. This perception remains as strong as ever in Iranian policy circles and could prove to be the decisive factor in accepting or rejecting the Western peace offer.
(Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is a lecturer in Media and International Relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria)
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