POMED Notes: “Turkey’s Troubled Politics: Rising Influence and Eroding Freedoms”

On Friday, April 26^th, the Project on Middle East Democracy held an event titled “Turkey’s Troubled Politics: Rising Influence and Eroding Freedoms.” It featured Howard Eissenstat, Assistant Professor of Middle Eastern History at St. Lawrence University, and Yigal Schleifer, an independent journalist, analyst, and author of The Turko-file. Susan Corke, Director for Eurasia Programs at Freedom House, moderated.

For full event notes continue reading, or click here for a PDF.

Susan Corke opened the event by saying that this is a moment of opportunity in Turkey not seen in years, and will hopefully be part of a positive transition. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) said it will withdraw its militants by May 8. Corke acknowledged that the peace process will probably be fragile, but said there real hope that the parties will join together in a common cause to end the conflict. She added that real change will require real commitment on the part of Turkey’s leaders to fulfill Turkey’s democratic process as there is a real danger that an authoritarian model could emerge.

Howard Eissenstat called Turkey a conundrum. In many ways it is an unmitigated success: booming economy, remarkable educational system, incredible cultural dynamism, and democracy that has deep roots. Yet he said the problems are nonetheless extremely grave. Eissenstat outlined three sets of problems, saying that two are deeply rooted and difficult to address while the third is easier. First, Turkey is an illiberal democracy—Turkish national culture is imbued with an allergic reaction to diversity and a militarism that feels like the first half of the 20th century. He said this has made it very difficult for groups who are not seen as part of the national whole to freely voice their identity. Eissenstat said that Turkey’s cultural intolerance that has improved, but that it would be difficult find an Armenian or Kurd that would say that they feel like full members of society. Second, Turkey’s Freedom and Justice Party’s (AKP) remarkable success as a political machine has caused Turkish freedoms to be constrained by the patronage associated with it: “If you go up against it, you get hurt; if you make peace with it, you have a pathway to success.” He added that the interweaving of the party and society is producing a democratically elected single-party state, and that there are no easy answers. Eissenstat said the third area was the legal realm. Turkey has recognized that it needs to increase freedom of association, religion, and expression, as demonstrated by its multiple judicial reform packages. However, he said that Turkey seems to be engaged in a process of bargaining with the international community, trying to find the point where it will stop complaining. He concluded that the AKP will continue to consolidate power, making him pessimistic for the future.

Yigal Schleifer provided a broader look for the last couple years. He noted that after 12 years of control, the AKP is still able to present itself as the new kid on the block and face of reform, even though it has in many ways it has become the state it once opposed. He said that Erdogan and the AKP have shown a great knack for shifting quickly when necessary. Two years ago they seemed to be at a crossroads with the EU process looking dim, the “zero friends with neighbors” policy falling apart, and worsened relations with the U.S. The AKP took a hard, nationalist turn to the right, Turkey seemed to take a step back on the Kurdish issue, and there was regression in freedom of expression and media. Schleifer said it was a discouraging picture, but became a moment of reinvention for the AKP. They injected new energy EU process, hardened and sharpened their foreign policies, and most significantly, pursued a new Kurdish opening. Schleifer attributed the change to Turkey returning to the Cold War approach of seeking a western alliance in an uncertain world. It embraced Europe economically and realized that its ambitions were being hindered by how it was treating the Kurds. Schleifer added that the emerging ‘Kurdish crescent,’ and the AKP’s desire to make better inroads in southeast Turkey to support constitutional efforts, encouraged Erdogan to deal with the issue sooner than later. He said it is hard to know what to expect because Erdogan’s foreign policy includes strengthening ties with NATO vying for leadership of a new non-aligned movement. On the domestic front, he said that the AKP is good at making its policies look good, but they often include self-interested power grabs. The biggest example is the current constitutional process. Turkey needs a new constitution that enshrines civil liberties against protecting the state, but the new presidency has become the primary issue. Meanwhile, Turkey’s domestic record on freedom of expression and control of the press is deteriorating.

Corke began the Q&A by asking the panelists to map out specific recommendations for how Turkey could get to where it needs to be, and what role the U.S. and the West could play. Eissenstat said that it was important for Turkey’s friends to address cultural issues because Turkey is movable. He specifically said that when Turkey announces its fourth package of judicial reforms western allies should tell it to “finish the job.” He added that Erdogan often ends up doing exactly what his critics ask, so the West should stop taking his ruffled feathers so seriously—name and shame can actually work with him. Eissenstat recommended that President Obama mention that the U.S. hopes Turkey will address constitutional articles that are damaging freedom of expression. Schleifer said that Turkey has 21st century ambitions and 19th century problems, such as the Kurdish and Cyprus issues. He argued that Europe needs to always realize what an important role the EU process plays for Turkey, and that everyone should be involved with helping in the new Kurdish process, which is much bigger than Turkey. He said the West should stop worrying about whether the AKP is too Islamist and realize that its various structural issues are Turkish and would be problems for whomever was in power in Turkey. Corke recommended keeping the EU accession process alive because it was an engine of reform and the criteria by which Turkey would like to be judged.

In response to audience questions, Eissenstat said that Erdogan could do a remarkable thing in the area of ethnic intolerance given his solid Sunni credentials. He said that Turkish leaders ultimately don’t believe Turkey will become part of the EU but the process is valuable for all sides as Turkey and the EU can still grow together and get people into the room. Schleifer agreed, doubted that Turkey even wants full membership, and predicted a privileged partnership. He suggested reform might be possible without the EU process. The panelists agreed that Turkey needs to be motivated from within, not merely pushed from the outside. Schleifer noted that there is significant public enmity between Turkey and Israel and predicted that their relationship would be similar to that Israel’s with the Gulf countries. Eissenstat said that Erdogan realized that his stance on Israel-Palestine was not serving Turkey’s interest. He called the PKK-Turkey negations a potential game changer that should be supported but was pessimistic about their ultimate success, because if they are not completed before the new constitution is in place, Erdogan can turn his back, leaving the Kurds holding nothing. He added that concessions on Cyprus had been possible but are now unlikely. Both panelists called the AKP’s foreign policy ad-hoc and amateurish compared to its domestic program, but Eissenstat noted that though Syria is sucking the region in Turkey has avoided it better than others thus far. Schleifer said the opposition parties have not kept up and need to make serious changes. Eissenstat added that some blame can be put on the increasingly fawning nature of the press toward the AKP, which has intimidated the media with arrests and firings, leaving newspapers without hard-hitting reporting and columns.