Japan index: Wages and consumption stymie recovery
By Andy Mukherjee
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Firmer prices, stronger bank lending and higher manufacturing output helped the Breakingviews Abenomics Index reverse half the previous month’s decline in July. But unless wages and spending rise, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will struggle to win his war against deflation.
Japan’s Olympic boost will be mostly psychological
By Peter Thal Larsen
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Japan’s Olympic boost will be mostly psychological rather than financial. Tokyo’s victory in the race to host the 2020 summer Games will help Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to rebuild the country’s confidence. But expectations that an Olympian investment spree will lift Japan out of deflation are as misplaced as fears that it will trigger a debt crisis.
Bank upstarts’ rapid growth needs careful policing
By Neil Unmack and George Hay
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.
Peer-to-peer lending is a rare thing in finance: an innovation that is actually innovative. Internet lenders are faster, more transparent and less systemically risky than traditional ones. But when the Financial Conduct Authority starts to regulate the sector next April, it needs to keep an eye on a disquieting new trend: some so-called P2P lenders are beginning to act more like banks.
Review: Will the real Mao please stand up?
By Katrina Hamlin
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
The portrait of Mao Zedong watches over Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, but it’s still impossible to know the man behind the myth. Nearly four decades after his death, China’s modern leaders invoke his name at their own risk. Consider two of the most popular English-language biographers of the Great Helmsman.
Australia haunted by imaginary crises
By Peter Thal Larsen
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
“Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck.” So said academic Donald Horne in his 1964 book, The Lucky Country. Yet you wouldn’t know it from the surly mood as Australians prepare to vote in a general election on Sept. 7. Despite the country’s enviable economic track record, citizens are haunted by past turmoil and apprehensive about the future. These enemies are more imagined than real.
Middle East turmoil perpetuates OPEC charade
By Una Galani
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
Turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has been awful for the people of the region. The same cannot be said for OPEC, the oil cartel. The long list of crises – violence in Iraq, fear of sectarian spillover from the Syrian conflict, oil worker strikes in Libya and sanctions against Iran – has conspired to keep crude prices high.
Not all Asian countries need to fear the Fed
By Andy Mukherjee
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Falling Asian currencies have triggered a sell-off in bonds and equities. Some investors now fear a repeat of a 1997-style crisis. Yet while a new Breakingviews’ interactive risk map shows no economy in the Asia-Pacific region is entirely sober, it is India that has become most addicted to cheap money.
Commodity decoupling hints at return to old normal
By Kevin Allison
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Commodity markets are rediscovering a semblance of normality. After a sustained period of tight correlation, the prices of raw materials have diverged from equities. Different commodities are charting different paths too. If the trends hold, it suggests that familiar forces of supply and demand are regaining the upper hand after years of crisis-driven trading.
China’s bad debt could leave $500 bln equity hole
By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
China’s bad debts could blow a $500 billion hole in bank balance sheets. That’s roughly how much extra equity the eleven biggest lenders might need if 10 percent of their loans went sour, according to a Breakingviews calculator. Though the chairman of ICBC, China’s biggest lender, thinks dismal bank valuations are “unfair”, the malaise is well deserved.
The lessons for China from Japan’s lost decade
By Andy Mukherjee
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Is China condemned to suffer a Japanese “lost decade”? Its economy today has three big similarities with Japan in the late 1980s: High and rising debt, diminishing export competitiveness and an ageing society. China can avoid slipping into Japan’s deflationary hole, but only if it learns from Tokyo’s failure to cleanse its banking system.
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FEATURED VIDEO
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Breakingviews: JPMorgan's governance cosmeticsSept. 9 - Breakingviews editors offer qualified praise for the bank's two new board members, but are less enamored by the switch to an independent lead director.Video
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Breakingviews: Japan's Olympic boost mostly psychologicalSept. 9 - Tokyo's victory in the race to host the 2020 Games will help rebuild the country's confidence. But expectations an investment spree will lift Japan out of deflation are misplaced, says Breakingviews.Video
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Abe’s Economic Experiment
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Breakingviews has published a selection of books for purchase and download.
Predictions 2013: Exploring the year ahead.
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