Analysis | Europe Decides

Apr

Italy’s Commission nominee: recycling à la Renzi

Tags: Enrico Letta, Mario Monti, Matteo Renzi, Silvio Berlusconi

Matteo_Renzi_crop_new

When it comes to this year’s European Parliament elections, Italy is lagging behind.

So far, none of the major parties have announced their full lists for the election, and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (pictured right) is yet to put forward a nominee to be a European commissioner.

The reason for these delays is the high level of uncertainty on the Italian political scene. Renzi won the leadership of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) in December; two months later he ousted Enrico Letta to take control of a reshuffled government.

The centre-right has fragmented, with ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia re-emerging and the New Centre-Right being established. Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) has sown further confusion with its unpredictable policies and personalities.

It is in this political climate that Renzi will need to consider potential candidates for Italy’s nomination to the European Commission.

Apr

PollWatch 2014: a dead heat between Left and Right as campaign hots up

Tags: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European People's Party Group, Greens / European Free Alliance Group, GUE/NGL, Opinion polls, PollWatch 2014, Socialists & Democrats Group, VoteWatch Europe

Comments: No

For detailed results per country and methodology, go to pollwatch2014.eu

The gap between the centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group and the centre-right Group of the European People’s Party has disappeared in the latest PollWatch 2014 prediction.

The Socialists – who led in the first three predictions – are now on 212 seats in the European Parliament, equal with a resurgent EPP in the latest forecast by PollWatch 2014, a project developed by VoteWatch Europe in partnership with Burson-Marsteller and Europe Decides.

Apr

50 days to go, 50 things to know about Europe’s year of change

Tags: Alexander Stubb, Alexis Tsipras, Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party, Amelia Andersdotter, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Andrus Ansip, Angela Merkel, Carl Bildt, Christine Lagarde, David Cameron, Donald Tusk, Elisabeth Guigou, Enrico Letta, Euronews, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European Green Party, European People's Party, European People's Party Group, European Pirate Party, European Youth Forum, Frans Timmermans, Frederik Reinfeldt, Geert Wilders, GUE/NGL, Guy Verhofstadt, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Herman Van Rompuy, Janez Potočnik, Janusz Lewandowski, Jean-Claude Juncker, Jens Stoltenberg, José Bové, Joseph Muscat, Karel De Gucht, Marine Le Pen, Maroš Šefčovič, Martin Schulz, Nato, Neven Mimica, Nigel Farage, Olli Rehn, Opinion polls, Party of European Socialists, Party of the European Left, PollWatch 2014, Radosław Sikorski, Sergei Stanichev, Ska Keller, Socialists & Democrats Group, Storify, Taavi Rõivas, Twitter, Valdis Dombrovskis, Viviane Reding, YouTube

Comments: 1

The countdown continues: at 08:00 CET on Wednesday 2 April, there are exactly 50 days to go to the opening of the polls for the European Parliament elections.

Here is our overview of where we stand and what you need to know about Europe’s year of change:

Top jobs | Country-by-country | PollWatch 2014 | The elections and beyond | Reading list

Mar

From local to European elections: more or less Wilders?

Tags: Geert Wilders, Marine Le Pen

Comments: 1

“Fewer! Fewer! Fewer!”

Supporters of Geert Wilders‘ Party for Freedom (PVV) made clear their views when, as the Dutch local election results filtered through last Wednesday, their leader asked them whether they want more or fewer Moroccans in the country.

“Good, we’ll arrange that”, promised Wilders. But what the PVV leader has actually seen since is fewer of his own elected representatives willing to stand by him following this controversial episode.

Laurence Stassen, the PVV delegation leader in the European Parliament, announced on Friday that she is leaving the party and will see out her term as an independent MEP (she is also giving up her seat in the provincial council of Limburg). Lucas Hartong takes over from Stassen as delegation leader but his tenure will be short-lived, as he will not be a candidate in the European Parliament election in May.

Other PVV politicians in the Netherlands are quitting the Wilders camp one by one. Daniël ter Haar, a provincial council member, recently joined the growing band of senior party members who disowned Wilders’ rabble-rousing. Meanwhile – as predicted by the PVV leader – the police have received many official complaints about use of discriminatory language.

The turbulence in the PVV has overshadowed the success in the municipal elections for many local parties (notably in Rotterdam) as well as the left-wing Socialist Party (SP), and the progressive liberal Democrats 66 (D66) party.

Mar

The ‘big tent’: star names and surprises on Poland’s centre-right list

Tags: Donald Tusk, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European People's Party, European People's Party Group, Janusz Lewandowski, José Manuel Barroso, Socialists & Democrats Group

Comments: 1

(left to right) Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk; former European Parliament president and election candidate Jerzy Buzek, the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso; and commissioner and election candidate Janusz Lewandowski

Commissioners, former commissioners, ministers, MEPs and sportspeople: Poland’s centre-right Civic Platform (PO) has an eclectic slate for the European election.

The list of candidates is due to be finalised this weekend (22 March), but the party – which leads the government in Warsaw – published the names of its lead candidates last week, with some surprising names.

By 15 April the PO lists – and those of other Polish parties, such as the centre-left Democratic Left Alliance and the centrist Europa Plus – Your Movement, which have already named their candidates – will have to be lodged with the election authorities.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Poland

Although behind the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party in the opinion polls, support for PO seems to be growing again, partly in reaction to the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. The centre-right party – led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk (pictured above) - has put forward a set of candidates carefully designed to capitalise on this growth in support.

Mar

Coalitions, commissioners and election sandwiches: the European elections in Croatia, Hungary and Slovenia

Tags: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European People's Party, Ivo Josipović, Janez Potočnik, Neven Mimica, Viktor Orbán

Comments: 1

With the European Parliament election campaign hotting up across the continent, we take a snapshot of the situation in Croatia, Hungary and Slovenia.

Blogpost compiled with the support of Chapter 4, Burson-Marsteller’s exclusive affiliate in South East and Central and Eastern Europe.

Croatia
Hungary
Slovenia

The European election in Croatia will be a crucial examination for the ruling left-wing coalition, led by the Social Democrats (SDP).

The government has just entered the second half of its mandate and has faced several scandals, often clumsily handled. The SDP has suffered its worst opinion poll scores in several years and there have been internal clashes.

While the election will be a test of credibility for the ruling party, it is also a chance to test the strength of the main opponent, the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ – a member of the European People’s Party), which is still dogged by memories of corruption scandals from its long period in power.

Given the troubles for the two main parties, an opportunity opens for several other groups to position themselves. Dozens of new parties that have been founded in the last twelve months will face their first test.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Croatia

The SDP and HDZ are both running in the election at the head of a coalition (the HDZ is leading the right-wing Union for Croatia, whose list includes Ruža Tomašić (pictured), an MEP from the European Conservatives and Reformists Group).

Last year’s inaugural European election in Croatia saw a scramble for positions on the lists, with the posts in Brussels being seen as prestigious and lucrative – a common statute for MEPs means that Croatian members are paid vastly more than parliamentarians in Zagreb. This year will see a repeat.

However, one Social Democrat who is likely to stand in the election will almost certainly not take up his seat: the current Commissioner for Consumer Protection, Neven Mimica, is likely to be Croatia’s nominee to the European Commission for the second time.

See our list of potential nominees to the European Commission from Croatia

On 19 March Croatian president Ivo Josipović announced that the elections will be held on 25 May, expressing his wish that all parties talk about the possibilities Croatia has as an EU member.

Few people in Hungary are discussing the European elections, with a general election due to take place in less than three weeks’ time.

Indeed, the European poll is part of an ‘election sandwich’, with municipal elections due to take place in the autumn.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Hungary

At the moment, the centre-right government of Viktor Orbán (pictured) is set to win a big majority in the new Hungarian parliament. His party, Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union, is set to win half of all votes, with the centre-left Unity coalition, featuring the Socialists, at around 25%. The extreme-right Jobbik – Movement for a Better Hungary party is currently set to win around 15% of the vote.

The new electoral system will see one round of voting, a parliament that is almost halved in size, and a greater emphasis on constituency seats rather than party lists. There is a threshold for entry into parliament of five per cent for single parties; more for combined lists.

After the national elections, the parties will start to focus on Europe; indeed, Fidesz is due to publish its list of candidates only after the election. One potentially interesting development is the high score for Jobbik in the opinion polls, especially given that European Parliament elections see a surge in support for fringe parties.

Hungary’s nominee to the European Commission is likely to come from Fidesz if the party, as expected, wins the national election. The likely nominee is also set to head the party’s list for the European Parliament election.

See our list of potential nominees to the European Commission from Hungary

Names being mooted are Enikő Győri, the Europe minister and face of the country’s EU presidency in 2011. She has excellent European and international credentials, speaks many languages, and would probably pass the hearing in the Parliament without much difficulty.

Other contenders include the justice minister, Tibor Navracsics, and current MEP József Szájer, who has been in the Parliament since Hungary joined the EU and has worked mainly on constitutional issues.

With just over three months to go to the elections, the political situation in Slovenia is beginning to clarify a little.

On the centre-right, New Slovenia (NSi) and the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) – both affiliated to the EPP – will run a common list, with Alojz Peterle MEP among the candidates. As for the other EPP-affiliated party, the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), Romana Jordan is set to stand down, but Milan Zver is likely to run again.

The Social Democrats will probably field Tanja Fajon and Mojca Kleva Kekuš – both currently MEPs. But there is also speculation that the party’s President, Igor Lukšič will lead the list. The order of these candidates could be crucial with Positive Slovenia (PS), a party established since the last European election but which now leads the government, likely to compete strongly for seats.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Slovenia

PS will join the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) Group, where Jelko Kacin MEP of Liberal Democracy of Slovenia (LDS) and Ivo Vajgl MEP of Zares – Social Liberals currently sit. However, due to the very low public support for LDS Kacin may lose his seat, while Vajgl is now backed by the Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) – a centrist party focused on rights of older people.

As for the nominee to the European Commission, Janez Potočnik (pictured), who will not stand in the election, will try to get the government’s support but may face a battle to stay on for a third term (even if it would help secure a more important portfolio for the country’s nominee). In Slovenia, unlike in many other countries, the government has to approve the nomination, not just the prime minister.

See our list of potential nominees to the European Commission from Slovenia

Mar

After Hours: Digital politics in the 21st century

Comments: No

On Wednesday 2 April Burson-Marsteller will welcome Alec Ross, a former advisor to Hillary Clinton, for its latest ‘After Hours’ event.

‘Europe Decides: digital politics in the 21st century’ will look at the role of social media in politics and policy-making with one of the United States’ leading experts on innovation.

Alec Ross was a senior advisor on this issue to Hillary Clinton during her time as US Secretary of State (2009-2013). One of his goals was to look at how social media could be used to advance America’s diplomatic interests.

Alec will give a talk on his experiences and the role of digital politics in Europe’s year of change and beyond.

Please note that registration for this event is now closed.

Mar

PollWatch 2014: Socialists and EPP neck-and-neck in latest prediction

Comments: 3

Updated post based on corrections to forecast in Cyprus

For detailed results per country and methodology, go to pollwatch2014.eu

The centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group and the centre-right Group of the European People’s Party are neck-and-neck in the race to become the biggest political group in the next European Parliament, according to the latest PollWatch 2014 prediction.

The latest forecast puts the Socialists on 214 seats – an increase on the previous prediction – but puts the EPP on 213 seats, its best score of the three predictions made so far by PollWatch 2014, a project developed by VoteWatch Europe in partnership with Burson-Marsteller and Europe Decides.

With just one seat between the S&D and EPP, it is a statistical dead heat between the two groups.

Mar

There’s no escaping Twitter for Europe’s politicians

Tags: European People's Party, Facebook, Google, Jean-Claude Juncker, Martin Schulz, Party of European Socialists, Twitter

Comments: 1

With their support falling to low levels, Europe’s mainstream parties are pulling out all the stops to freshen their image and reach voters.

The European People’s Party (EPP) Election Congress in Dublin clearly recognised digital campaigning as being at the heart of this year’s European elections, and contributed to a significant increase in interest in and debate about the polls. Over three days (5-7 March), more than 16,000 tweets (includes retweets) were posted about the EPP Congress. At the event itself, social media workshops were given by Twitter, Facebook and Google.

So it was perhaps surprising that Twitter-less Jean-Claude Juncker was chosen as the figurehead of the campaign. Juncker’s previous digital campaigning experience seemed to centre on fighting a losing battle to suppress spoof accounts but by the end of the Congress he had – as if by magic – a verified Twitter account with more than 5,000 followers, scooping up the followers of the @EPPDublin Congress account.

Mar

Italy’s Tsipras List: who are the candidates and what do they want to achieve?

Tags: Alexis Tsipras, Angela Merkel, Matteo Renzi, Party of European Socialists, Party of the European Left

Comments: No

The ‘Tsipras List’ – officially ‘The Other Europe with Tsipras‘, which was presented on 5 March in Rome, is part of a growing trend of ‘personality-led’ lists of candidates for the European elections.

The List – which is the first confirmed list of candidates for the European Parliament election in Italy – is somewhat unconventional. Like lists in some other countries – such as Poland’s Europa Plus – Your Movement list (which we will look at in more detail in a future post) and France’s ‘Citizens’ Europe’ (led by Corinne Lepage MEP) – the Tsipras List brings together prominent members of civil society, professionals, intellectuals and others, in addition to politicians.


Click the icon to visit the group's website
EPP	Group of the European People's Party
S&D	Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
ALDE	Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
G/EFA	Group of the Greens / European Free Alliance
ECR	European Conservatives and Reformists Group
EFD	Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group
GUE/NGL	Confederal Group of the European United Left / Nordic Green Left
NI	Non-attached members

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