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Next summer, David Cameron faces a tough decision: who to choose as the United Kingdom’s next nominee to the European Commission.

The opinion polls suggest that the choice will follow a defeat for the Conservatives – possibly into third place, behind the UK Independence Party (Ukip) and the Labour Party – in the European Parliament elections. In those circumstances, Tory MPs, many fearing for their jobs at the next general election in less than twelve months’ time, will want a sharp turn to the right.

 

Read our full profiles of the potential nominees for the Commission from the United Kingdom

Here’s five things Cameron will have to consider when picking a nominee:

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Six months away from the European Parliament elections, the first serious set of predictions are being made.

Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute, a Paris-based think-tank, has recently published a must-read policy paper in which it predicts that the centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group (S&D) will oust the centre-right European People’s Party Group (EPP) as the largest group in the new Parliament.

And in February, Burson-Marsteller Brussels will support the launch – as part of Europe Decides – of PollWatch, a VoteWatch Europe project that will take an in-depth and regular look at opinion polls and the likely composition of the new assembly.

However, the election results are only part of the story. Post-election horse-trading and haggling plays a key role in determining the final composition of the groups and – significantly this time – the creation of a majority to back the appointment of a new President of the European Commission.

Political positioning and the distribution of key roles (such as committee chairs or group spokespeople) may help sway the decisions of national party delegations on where to sit.

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Read more in Europe Decides Weekly, 4 October 2013

Top stories: 28 September to 4 October 2013

  • PES opens nominations for ‘Common Candidate’ selection for next year’s European elections: On 1 October the Party of European Socialists (PES) officially opened the process to accept nominations for the position of candidate for Commission President, ahead of the European elections. The President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, is the clear favourite. The nomination period will be open until 31 October. PES; Europolitics; Euractiv
  • Frattini puts himself forward for Nato chief post: Franco Frattini, a former Italian foreign minister, has said he is a candidate to be the next Nato chief. In a Le Monde interview, Frattini said his experience dealing with security issues when he was EU commissioner, as well as the fact that he comes from a Mediterranean region country, make him a leading candidate for the job. EUObserver

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