The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns?

Jesse Livermore, who you can follow on Twitter, wrote another tremendous post over at his site here.   In this latest post, he constructs a very smart way of looking at potential future stock market returns through the preferences of asset allocations.  And it turns out that the metric is pretty useful for predicting what the stock market might return….

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10 Lessons To Learn From Poker

In essence, if there is one thing that we must always remember, and keep with us daily, is that basically “we know nothing”. Sure, there are some things we can determine like what a particular company’s business is today, what they most likely will do in the coming months, and whether the price of its stock is trending higher or lower. However, in the grand scheme of things, we don’t know much as we are closer to knowing nothing than to knowing everything, so let’s just round down and be done with it.


The 13 Biggest Investing Mistakes to Avoid

I really liked this concise view on investing mistakes to avoid via Ben Carlons at A Wealth of Common Sense: The Bill Russell investment strategy is about avoiding the crippling mistakes that so many investors make on a consistent basis. Here’s my list of the biggest mistakes to avoid: Making investment decisions based on your political views. Confusing your risk…

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Rail Traffic Jumps to Near Record Highs

The latest rail traffic trends showed continued strength as intermodal traffic recorded its seconded highest ever weekly reading.  Intermodal traffic was up 6.4% year over year and the 12 week moving average jumped near its highest level in 2013 at 7%. Here’s more via AAR: “The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported mixed U.S. rail traffic for the week…

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A QE and Stock Market Thought Experiment

There are two camps in the world when it comes to thinking about QE and the stock market.  There are those who view QE as an asset swap that is marginally impactful, but vastly overblown by the mainstream media.  And there are those who think QE is the equivalent of “money printing” which is manipulating stock prices and will lead…

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The Cost of Technology

Walt Mossberg has produced his final column for The Wall Street Journal after 22 years of tech reviews. Not surprisingly, he wrote about the products that most changed the digital industry during that time. That milestone has caused me to think a bit about the cost of technology, but not in the sense of Moore’s law.


EuroZone ZEW Points to Stronger Equity Markets

Interesting data point here from Guggenheim’s weekly note which might be of particular interest for European readers: “The ZEW survey of investor expectations for economic growth in the euro zone surprised to the upside in the December release, reaching levels not seen since 2006. Despite lackluster third quarter GDP, economic prospects in the euro zone are improving, as fiscal drag…

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The Fed Throws Out a “Taper” Feeler….

Interesting (and surprising – at least to me) move by the Fed here.  They announced a $10B tapering set to come in January.  This looks like a “feeler” to me.  For all practical purposes, a $10B reduction in purchases is marginal, if not meaningless.  They are still buying $75B a month with a specific flexible policy outlook going forward: “asset…

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Government Bonds in a World of Moneyness

When you learn about the monetary system from the perspective of Monetary Realism you learn about a world with the concept of “moneyness” (see here for details).  The concept of “moneyness” helps us decipher how different financial assets fit into our traditional thinking of “money”.  It’s important to differentiate between the different types of financial instruments we utilize so we…

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The Most Important Charts of 2013…

This is always a good post from Business Insider.  My contribution was kind of obvious, given that I’ve focused so much on household debt trends in the last 5 years: “The U.S. economy has been mired in a 5 year de-leveraging cycle following the housing bubble that wreaked havoc on household balance sheets.  The latest Z.1 Flow of Funds report…

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