Email
Libya's first national elections in more than four decades, scheduled for 19 June, may be delayed for a few weeks. Although the Libyan electoral commission is yet to finalise the list of candidates and prepare the ballot papers, the delay is expected to be short.
Holding elections in a country like Libya is no easy task and the electoral commission has done a good job so far. It has worked hard to such an extent that earlier talk of delaying the elections for three to four months seems unreal now.
The Libyan people have clearly demonstrated their desire to move forward by registering in large numbers to vote in the coming elections. According to the electoral commission, roughly 80% of the eligible voters have registered.
After living in a dictatorship for 42 years, democracy is something new for the Libyan people but they are keenly waiting for the day when they will be able to elect their own representatives and the thought of it is very empowering for them.
Libyans will be electing 200 members of an assembly to lead them formally into the next phase of the revolution, the rebuilding. The assembly's main task will be to draft a new constitution.
Not surprisingly, Libya has seen a surge of political activity, which is also very confusing. The number of registered political entities now exceeds 370 and candidates say all kind of things to entice the voters: liberal parties use religious punchlines while the religious parties try to present themselves as open and inclusive.
Despite the efforts of the political parties to hold conference and media events, many Libyans are waiting for the electoral campaigns before they decide how to vote – so it is difficult at present to predict the outcome.
Considering the pattern of the recent political events, the four parties likely to perform well are the National Front, the Justice and Construction party, the Nation party and the National Forces Alliance.
Two of these are religion-based parties. The Justice and Construction party belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Nation party has the support of Ali al-Sallabi, a famous Libyan religious scholar. Both parties have similar policies and have said in the past that they want to see Libya as a free, transparent and democratic country based on the principles of Islam.
With a number of other religious parties competing, it seems likely that the religious vote will be split, making alliances in the new assembly inevitable. Statements from various political leaders, especially Abdul Hakim Belhadj, one of the most prominent leaders of the Nation party, suggest that negotiations about alliances are already under way.
The lack of information and clear strategy from the liberal parties is likely to work in favour of the religious parties, especially more organised ones such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
On the other hand parties and alliances with progressive and liberal ideas say they are hopeful of getting a majority in the assembly. Yousef Magariaf's National Front and Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance are seen as strong competition to the religious parties. Both parties are likely to attract voters by appealing to a modern and progressive vision.
However, a history of working with the former regime for several years will work against Jibril as many still hold that against him. The National Front, which is relying heavily on its past struggle against Muammar Gaddafi, is gaining momentum and is likely to capitalise on its 30 years of organisation.
Many political pundits have predicted a victory for the liberal parties in the upcoming elections but considering the complexities of Libyan society and the lack of democratic culture, a congress with religious parties in the majority seems closer to reality.
• Follow Comment is free on Twitter @commentisfree
;
Comment from the paper
Zoe Williams: Could rationing hold the key to today's food crises?
Lynsey Hanley: Christmas at the cakehole
Martin Rowson: Martin Rowson on a very Tory Christmas – cartoon