Analysis | Europe Decides

Jan

Countdown to Dublin: who will be the EPP candidate?

Tags: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party, Angela Merkel, Christine Lagarde, Dalia Grybauskaite, Donald Tusk, Enda Kenny, European Green Party, European People's Party, Frederik Reinfeldt, Jean-Claude Juncker, Joseph Daul, Jyrki Katainen, Michel Barnier, Party of European Socialists, Party of the European Left, Valdis Dombrovskis, Viviane Reding

Comments: 1

In 50 days’ time, the European People’s Party will open its electoral congress in Dublin and select its common lead candidate for the European Parliament elections.

While the Socialists, Liberals, Greens and Left have all selected their lead candidates for the position of President of the European Commission (or at least have a selection process ongoing), the field for the EPP nomination is wide open. The EPP President, Joseph Daul, noted in December that there are “about six people who are interested” in the job.

So who are the contenders?

We have run the rule over the chances of a handful of potential centre-right candidates for the Commission presidency:

Jyrki Katainen – Prime Minister of Finland

Michel Barnier – European Commissioner for the Internal Market and Services

Enda Kenny – Prime Minister of Ireland

Jean-Claude Juncker – former prime minister of Luxembourg

Christine Lagarde – Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

Fredrik Reinfeldt – Prime Minister of Sweden

Viviane Reding – Vice President of the European Commission responsible for Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship

Other candidates may emerge too – Valdis Dombrovskis, who resigned as Latvia’s prime minister in November – has also been mentioned, as have Poland’s PM Donald Tusk (in spite of his clear statement that he will remain in Polish politics at least until the 2015 parliamentary elections) and Lithuania’s President, Dalia Grybauskaitė.

Read our assessments of their chances and give us your opinion by voting in our poll!

Jan

Spoilt for choice – but who will Hollande go for?

Tags: European People's Party, François Hollande, Martin Schulz, Michel Barnier, Party of European Socialists, Pascal Lamy

Comments: No

While most people involved in French politics see March’s municipal elections as the key test of opinion in the coming months, the race for positions in the European Parliament and the European Commission is hotting up.

The procedure for selecting candidates for the European Parliament elections has already been a difficult one, and seems set to continue.

After the European elections, the French President, François Hollande (pictured left), faces his own big choice – who to send to Brussels as France’s next nominee for a position in the European Commission.

The choice of person will depend much on the political situation that Hollande finds himself in, needing to balance the desire for strong French representation with other factors, such as keeping key figures in his Socialist Party (PS) happy.

Read our full profiles of the potential nominees for the Commission from France

Dec

Battling to be heard: the mainstream, the far right… and Miley Cyrus?

Tags: European Green Party, European People's Party, Party of European Socialists, Twitter

Comments: No

Any social media campaigner worth his salt will tell you that Twitter outreach requires you to listen.

So let’s tune in to the conversations on the European Parliament elections. What do we hear? A battle between Left and Right over jobs and growth stirring interest amongst apathetic voters? Euroscepticism running wild? Or is it all drowned out by Miley Cyrus (yes, really)?

For more than two months we have been following discussions using hashtags such as #EP2014, #GreenPrimary, #knockthevote, #up2youth and #ALDEcongress.

See the data in our digital centre

As in our last analysis, the Parliament’s various accounts are still driving the conversation, with the launch of the official elections website creating the largest spike to date in posts about the elections. If parties and candidates use the wave of interest the Parliament creates, they will be able to access a much broader audience.

Dec

Plus ça change… internal battles mark French parties’ MEP selections

Tags: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, European People's Party Group, François Hollande, Nicolas Sarkozy

Comments: 1

Every French political party is naming its candidates for the European Parliament elections – but most seem fixated on in-fighting rather than battling for voters’ support.

This is nothing new: in 2009, Gilles Savary, a Socialist Party (PS) MEP who had been in the European Parliament for ten years, was booted off the PS list in favour of Vincent Peillon (now France’s Education Minister).

However, this time the political scheming in the main parties could be more damaging: the far-right National Front (FN) is set to win nearly a quarter of the vote according to a recent poll, and will happily to see the other parties tear themselves apart.

See our lists of French candidates for the European Parliament election

Dec

Germany’s new government: who’s who in the grand coalition?

Tags: Angela Merkel

Comments: No

Almost three months after the elections and following the approval of members of the Social Democrats (SPD), Germany has a new government.

Ministers in the ‘grand coalition’ of the Christian Democrats (CDU, with their Bavarian Christian Social Union partners, CSU) and Social Democrats are expected to be sworn in before Christmas.

Angela Merkel (CDU) continues as Chancellor for a third term. However, the SPD succeeded in claiming important ministries and is widely seen as the winner of the negotiations.

Click to read our guide to the new German government

Dec

Cameron’s choice: five things to consider in picking the next UK Commission nominee

Tags: David Cameron, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, Martin Callanan

Comments: No

Next summer, David Cameron faces a tough decision: who to choose as the United Kingdom’s next nominee to the European Commission.

The opinion polls suggest that the choice will follow a defeat for the Conservatives – possibly into third place, behind the UK Independence Party (Ukip) and the Labour Party – in the European Parliament elections. In those circumstances, Tory MPs, many fearing for their jobs at the next general election in less than twelve months’ time, will want a sharp turn to the right.

Read our full profiles of the potential nominees for the Commission from the United Kingdom

Here’s five things Cameron will have to consider when picking a nominee:

Dec

Presidencies should build on each other’s social media work – not start from scratch

Tags: Council of the European Union, Twitter

Comments: 3

Here’s an idea.

In three weeks’ time Greece will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. By 11 December, nearly 4,000 Twitter users had followed the Greek Presidency’s @gr2014eu account.

So far, the account ranks among the most effective presidency accounts of the last five years. By 4 December more than 81% of its tweets has been retweeted, on average more than 17 times. Almost two thirds of its tweets have been ‘favourited’.

The account consistently mentions other Twitter users, such as Greece’s foreign minister, Evangelos Venizelos (@EVenizelos), and the foreign ministry (@GreeceMFA). The team running the account also uses at least two hashtags per tweet, including #gr2014eu, #EU and #Greek.

However, building up a following on Twitter requires significant time and effort: so what if Greeks built on the audiences of previous presidencies by curating a common Twitter account rather than starting from scratch?

Dec

Will the EU get a social media election?

Tags: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, Facebook, Socialists & Democrats Group, Twitter

Comments: No

In June 2009 Twitter had around 50 million users. Today, it has around a quarter of a billion. Facebook use has grown from around 200 million users at the time of the last European Parliament elections to more than one billion today. But does this growth – and the development of new tools, such as Instagram and Vine, mean that the EU will get a social media election in 2014?

This was the subject of a lively event organised by the European Parliament office in the UK last week. It was undoubtedly one of the most passionate debates I have attended in a while, due both to the topic and the diverse and well-balanced panel of speakers (see panel below).

Nov

‘Shaping Germany’s Future’: analysis of the grand coalition deal in Berlin

Tags: Angela Merkel

Comments: No

Negotiators for Germany’s two biggest parliamentary groups – the Christian Democrats (CDU, with its Bavarian partners, the Christian Social Union, CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) have reached an agreement that will establish a ‘grand coalition’ government in Berlin.

Angela Merkel will become Chancellor for a third term, returning to the coalition partners with whom she shared power from 2005 to 2009.

However, she has had to make a number of concessions to the SPD. The Social Democrats demanded a high price for entry into a new pact after their crushing defeat in 2009.

The 185-page agreement – entitled ‘Shaping Germany’s Future’ – will be put to SPD members for approval, with ballots due to be counted on 14 December.

To read our full analysis – including sections on EU policy and personnel, energy and the environment, the digital agenda, healthcare, and food and consumer protection, click the link below.

Read our full Insight analysing the coalition agreement

Six months away from the European Parliament elections, the first serious set of predictions are being made.

Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute, a Paris-based think-tank, has recently published a must-read policy paper in which it predicts that the centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group (S&D) will oust the centre-right European People’s Party Group (EPP) as the largest group in the new Parliament.

And in February, Burson-Marsteller Brussels will support the launch – as part of Europe Decides – of PollWatch, a VoteWatch Europe project that will take an in-depth and regular look at opinion polls and the likely composition of the new assembly.

However, the election results are only part of the story. Post-election horse-trading and haggling plays a key role in determining the final composition of the groups and – significantly this time – the creation of a majority to back the appointment of a new President of the European Commission.

Political positioning and the distribution of key roles (such as committee chairs or group spokespeople) may help sway the decisions of national party delegations on where to sit.


Click the icon to visit the group's website
EPP	Group of the European People's Party
S&D	Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
ALDE	Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
G/EFA	Group of the Greens / European Free Alliance
ECR	European Conservatives and Reformists Group
EFD	Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group
GUE/NGL	Confederal Group of the European United Left / Nordic Green Left
NI	Non-attached members


Click the icon to visit the party's website
EPP	European People's Party
PES	Party of European Socialists
ALDE	Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party
EGP	European Green Party
AECR	Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists
MELD	Movement for a Europe of Liberties and Democracy
PEL	Party of the European Left

All posts in Analysis

Countdown to Dublin: who will be the EPP candidate?

Spoilt for choice – but who will Hollande go for?

Battling to be heard: the mainstream, the far right… and Miley Cyrus?

Plus ça change… internal battles mark French parties’ MEP selections

Germany’s new government: who’s who in the grand coalition?

Cameron’s choice: five things to consider in picking the next UK Commission nominee

Presidencies should build on each other’s social media work – not start from scratch

Will the EU get a social media election?

‘Shaping Germany’s Future’: analysis of the grand coalition deal in Berlin

Party games: the Parliament and its post-election musical chairs