My April Fools' Day Confession
I have a confession to make. It's something which has been weighing on my mind for a long, long time - since late 2000, actually.
I did not invent timeless decision theory.
I did not invent the rationality techniques I've claimed as my own.
I'm not any kind of genius. I wasn't slated for a technical job. If only I had learned the math and the background theory instead of reading popularizations, I've wished that I don't know how many times, all too late. Everything I've tried to do here would have gone much faster, if I'd learned the math before. I had to try to reconstruct the math behind timeless decision theory from scratch, knowing only in vague terms what results I was supposed to get, and what popular accounts described in intuitive terms as the reason. I remember seeing the equations written down, but I didn't know the definitions of the terms, and was at a loss to remember them later. If I had studied the theory behind the training I received as a child, the art of rationality I've tried to teach would be far more advanced. All I have left are scraps and shadows and the stuff that everyone learns before they're 23.
There as here, I'd never heard the slightest hint that this sort of thing happens to people (and I still don't know how, or why, or anything). I didn't prepare to come here, and nobody else tried to prepare me for it. I wasn't on a... career track, I guess you'd say... to be a scientist. Maybe a writer, though I have no idea how to calibrate my reception in this world against my probable reception at home. The character of Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres isn't original to me, he's the result of my attempt to set a completely cliche protagonist of the you-don't-have-a-word genre in the setting of J. K. Rowling, and Harry has a cliche relationship with his cliche you-don't-have-a-word Defense Professor, even if it all seems new enough here that people call it original. It's not like I was reading highbrow literature where I came from. I was only a couple of years older than Eliezer Yudkowsky was, when I woke up in his body and with access to his previous memory.
I'm writing this on April 1st because it's the day when nobody in this world will take it seriously, no matter how much about me it explains.
My... homeworld, I guess... was called "dath ilan". Which I am not capitalizing, because by our conventions dath ilan is the name of a civilization, and doesn't get the emphasis-marks that would signify a personal name, which matters because a civilization is not a person. Before anyone asks, everyone in dath ilan looked human so far as I remember (it's not like I studied biology there), yes I was male, the continents were in the same places, and even in Earth's polluted sky I recognize the shan codra, what you would call the Pleiades. I'd say that dath ilan was "a nearby Everett branch", if not for the fact that everything I've ever read about quantum mechanics, there or here, indicates that you absolutely can't have that kind of communication. And if you're going to hypothesize that rule breaking, you may as well not appeal to quantum mechanics at all. Maybe I'd believe I was from a nearby Everett branch, if I hadn't gone through the same training in "do not make stuff up, especially when you are very confused" that everyone on dath ilan gets somewhere in the 11-13 age range, with a reinforcement ordeal at 17.
The beisutsukai, the master rationalists who've appeared recently in some of my writing, set in a fantasy world which is not like dath ilan at all, are based on the de'a'na est shadarak. I suppose "aspiring rationalist" would be a decent translation, if not for the fact that, by your standards, or my standards, they're perfect enough to avoid any errors that you or I could detect. Jeffreyssai's real name was Gora Vedev, he was my grand-aunt's mate, and if he were here instead of me, this world would already be two-thirds optimized.
So now, on April 1st, I will tell you of the world of dath ilan. I will tell you what I still miss most of my home, even now that I've managed to exude enough half-remembered-popularized shadarak culture into my environment that I'm not completely starved for conversation or people who understand me. What I miss most viscerally of dath ilan is not food that doesn't poison you, or the night sky at midnight when every light must be switched off or sealed behind shutters. It's not the evidence-based massage therapists who've been iterating their art with randomized experiments and competitions for 350 years (I was too young to have had sex-with-an-expert in dath ilan, which is a bittersweet thing to be grateful for).
It should already be obvious that dath ilan had better rationality training than here, and that I'd read some popular stuff on their version of decision theory. To keep you interested, I suppose, I should tell you about an aspect of dath ilan that hasn't already appeared in my writing. So I'll tell you about the thing that I notice every single day of living on Earth, that would be easy to do with this Earth's technology level, but which apparently nobody here has ever thought of. And this isn't going to sound important at first, but bear with me here, because it ends up being a lot more important to dath ilan's culture than it sounds.
Why is it that your Earth mostly doesn't have electric cars? Answer: Because someone *might* need to make a 200-mile trip and the batteries for a 200-mile range are expensive. As has already been observed, you could solve that problem by using automatically piloted cars as a public transit network, with long-range cars only called for long-range journeys. So it is already understood, on Earth, that autopiloted cars are the key to electric cars.
So why doesn't Earth have autopiloted cars? In the US one obvious answer is screwed-up liability laws, but not all countries are so hesitant. The real answer is that Earth only recently started to reach the AI level required to deal with other humans on the road, pedestrians randomly walking into the middle of the street, deer bounding across the avenues, whatever. But, and this I have not yet heard suggested here, you could solve that problem by having tunnels underground, instead of streets above, and all the cars auto-piloted. Then the AI problem would become vastly easier and could have been solved in the early 2000s of this Earth.
Current cars do not already travel through underground tunnels. Because your cars run on gasoline and would have filled the tunnels with choking fumes, without either (1) a big expensive ventilation system, or (2) expensive electrified rails that would...impose friction costs? Make it too expensive to keep the tunnels in repair? I know that dath ilan just used battery-powered cars in underground tunnels and didn't bother with electrified rails.
So there is a circular dependency between electric cars that require autopilots, autopiloted cars that require closed predictable tunnels, and tunnels that require electric cars.
This Earth cannot resolve circular dependencies and almost always gets stuck in Nash equilibria.
In the world of dath ilan, everyone learns at age 9 about the concept which would here be termed a Nash equilibrium, and there is a concept of a making a collective and virtuous effort to get past them. So as soon as computers and batteries were good enough to autopilot cars in a system of autopiloted electric cars in tunnels, the thing was done.
The vehicles of dath ilan moved at... I think it works out to 125kph, based on my best effort to convert to metric... and they were self-piloting, no traffic lights, tunnel connections designed to handle wide turns at speed. I grew up being 5 minutes and zero effort away from anywhere in an 8-km radius.
And there was another technology that was synergetic with that one, so keep listening. Yeah, I know, April 1st, but if you suspend your disbelief for a moment, I'm not doing gosh-wow futurism about one super-fun change that lets you do your existing highway commute but faster. I'm telling you about the way these things worked in a real world, where changes cause other changes and the great system of differential equations propagates marginal effects, as the proverb goes, in dath ilan.
Around 50 years ago in dath ilan before I came here, our shadarak-trained economists judged plausible the proposition put forth by Sinyelt that the economic friction involved in moving house - like packing and unpacking all your things - was responsible for the economy being slow-to-adapt to shocks. That the friction costs of moving house were a primary reason why people wouldn't move fast enough to places where the economy was booming, or leave old jobs that weren't good for them. My home civilization, as you might guess, makes a huge deal out of the virtue of being fast to adapt: fast to respond to facts, fast to update and change policies. And if Sinyelt was right, the cost of people moving geographically was interfering with that virtue. So they built a test city - dath ilan had a concept of "let's build a test city" - where houses were mated to modular foundations.
You then ask how you move houses from foundation to foundation, especially if, as in nowadays, instead of roads you have underground tunnels wide enough for only two cars side by side. This will take a moment to describe, but it also uses no technology that this Earth couldn't handle. Imagine the city is divided into a grid of squares 3 and a quarter kilometers on a side. All the grid points have tall narrow posts rising up from the ground, thoroughly anchored in the rock below. All the north-south lines of the grid have huge cables, like the cables this Earth uses to hold up suspension bridges, stretched between each grid point. (The cables are painted blue-reflective so that they mostly fade out against the sky, likewise the tower-posts.) Between two north-south cables, you can stretch east-west cables, side-by-side, attached by movable motors to points along the north-south cables, so the east-west cables can slide along the north-south cables. From points on the east-west cables, you can drop down nine vertical cables, again attached by motors so they can slide along the east-west cables. The nine vertical cables pick up a house from its modular foundations, draw it upward, and then the vertical cables and east-west cables slide to convey the house to a grid point. This takes you to an avenue large enough to move houses, which can convey that house to the next grid point. The cables are designed to move gently, and furniture is designed to be stable. Storage things inside the house are designed to allow flexible balloons to inflate inside them to keep their contents safe through moves, and there are various other things like that.
The upshot is that when you're moving to a new city, you don't need to find a house that's tolerable in a location that's sort of tolerable. You buy a house you really like, and you put it on a (say) Type 2 modular foundation in the next Type 2 location that goes up for rent that's *really* close to where you want to be. It means that instead of houses being built on site by Earth's small construction companies, houses are made by you-don't-have-a-word-let's-call-them-corporations which are large enough to spend money on R&D. So the houses have features like windows that shutter if dawn arrives too early, or stained glass murals on the walls that glow with lighting beneath. The reduced marginal costs of having more house on a foundation, means that houses are larger.
The fact that people can bid on locations means that the land-rents of central locations also rise, but since dath ilan has run on land value taxes for the last 200 years, this is revenue of the let's-call-it-a-government and it just reduces other taxes like thepositional-goods tax, status-goods tax, marketing-tax, and so on. I've worked out that what I pay in Berkeley in land value rent (vs. the interest on the material cost of a house this size), and it's just about exactly what I pay to the state and federal governments of the US; *not* having land value taxes, in other words, is like paying tax to two governments at once. I am reminded of this every time my monthly paycheck is deposited with tax already deducted, and then I pay rent on top of that, and then I can't hire people to do things because your culture taxes *labor* instead of land.
When autopiloted cars were developed 20 years ago, and the modular house system was already in place because that just required big cables, there was coordination to pick the largest stretch of land on Earth which had good year-round weather. And then that became 'the great city' and pretty much everyone who wasn't farming, mining, or otherwise tied to a particular location just moved house there, once the public transit from autopiloted cars could handle the traffic.
The autopiloted cars went straight to the basements of each house, there were no visible roads on the surface. No roads and no parking lots meant room for more houses in every square kilometer, so population densities could be high without looking crowded. The autopiloted cars meant that there were a lot of houses within 10 minutes of you and that they didn't find it so inconvenient to travel. Whatever your weird interest was, it wasn't hard to find 20 other people with that interest who lived within 10 minutes and almost no effort of travel. Most of dath ilan used the technology of the autopiloted cars and the movable houses to form their own little villages all over the great city, people who worked together on a common project or had common interests. You *lived near your friends* in dath ilan.
The sturdiest type of house foundation (Type 3) would support houses that could grow with modular rooms. Like, the 'house' was a central kitchen and dining place and hot tub and maybe a pillow-pit or whatever extra features you wanted your central house to have, and then up to six modular complexes of bedroom plus bathroom plus personal workroom, modules that would attach onto the central house's support, so that people could move their personal modules from group household to group household. If you were the sort of person who wanted to, you lived *with* your friends in dath ilan. And if friendships changed, you didn't have to pack up everything and find another sorta-tolerable house in a sorta-tolerable location in order to move.
There were central skyscraper structures for people who wanted to live in a very dense and walkable area, and a cable system for moving house-modules that slotted into the skyscraper-structure fittings. (It was easy to tear down one skyscraper-structure and build a taller one on the same ground.) Though my family in dath ilan didn't live in the skyscrapers - that was for people who were tightly tied into huge multi-person endeavors, like unusually polymathy researchers; or people who had unusually eclectic complicated interests and needed to be near many other interest-centers simultaneously.
There were no skyscrapers in our part of the great city. I'm still calling it that because it's a direct translation, but it didn't *look* like a great city at all. You stepped outside and you saw a green landscape full of trees, dotted with houses decorated as vegetation (which was a rule where we lived, and easy to do because our houses were centrally manufactured so they could have nice things). At night there were no street lights, just soft red lights that glowed along the walkways. Except for a 45-minute span, after all the last vestiges of sunlight had disappeared from the sky, when even the red lights went out so everyone could see the stars. Once a year on the winter solstice, on the Night of Stars, every light stayed out all night, so that those who wished could see the constellations before dawn.
The air smelled like grass and trees, because things were powered by electricity instead of internal combustion engines. I remember seeing movies of the tunnel-diggers on the edge of civilization expanding the great city, and they would have cables stretching out behind them. There were places in dath ilan where they burned things, but you'd have to be stupid to do it near a city, where it would blot out the sight of the stars.
More minor things I miss. The walkways were paved with bouncy material that people could run on without destroying their knees. There were central sidewalk-avenues, *moving* walkways that ran at morning and dusk when people were busiest. People *walked* places in dath ilan, because they lived near the places they wanted to be, because there weren't cars or stoplights to get in the way, because the great city was located somewhere it didn't rain too often, and because we had sidewalks that weren't gratuitously made of hard concrete.
Nobody used bicycles or skateboards. They weren't a thing. I don't really know why - maybe any journey distant enough for a bicycle was distant enough for a car, and if you didn't want to use a car you lived close enough to walk, or something like that.
"Offices" meant working under the sunlight, shielded by a glass screen overhead that kept out the rain, usually concealed by curtains that could be opened or shut to indicate botherability. If you needed silence for concentration, you used earplugs. People who needed to have loud conversations without disturbing others would have enclosed rooms with doors and glass ceilings and air conditioning. If you showed the... call them dath ilan's designated heroes... a world where most people never saw the sun while they worked, they'd flip out and then yell at all the serious people until they corrected the problem. Skyscrapers weren't much built in dath ilan until we had extremely bright artificial light that could mostly substitute for sunlight, and then they were all put in locations where skyscrapers were explicitly allowed. Blocking out someone else's sun would be a serious transgression against them; it had a symbolic meaning.
We had laser zappers and other measures that destroyed bugs and mosquitos and wasps and bees - these were considered far more annoying in dath ilan than Earth, and our civilization put a lot of effort and technology into rooting them out and preventing them from getting a foothold within the city. On the "beware of trivial inconveniences" scale, I suspect that an absence of little flying bugs, to say nothing of bugs that bit and stung and made noises, might be part of why people did their daily work beneath sunlight and in open air. I think there was a variety of butterfly that was bred to pollinate flowers and such within cities, in place of bees - at least I know that we weren't supposed to crush butterflies. I say this not so that you go "oh, how nice" but so that you realize that the civilization of dath ilan put a lot of effort into eliminating trivial inconveniences, if they happened to enough people, and that this effort really mattered. There's a parable about a fool who thought that dust specks were trivial things, and so the air grew so full of dust specks that people learned to stay inside because if they stepped outside they would blink and feel small moments of pain, and so they grew pale for lack of sun. I probably should have told the original version instead of trying to adapt it, but I'm not sure it would have the same resonance in Earth culture.
Food in dath ilan was made by people who were very good at making a particular variety of food, and they'd pick a few dishes and make a huge amount of it on any given day. There'd be many places like that within 2 miles of you, and a small courier-carlike-thing would attach itself to another car and arrive with the food you liked within 2 minutes. Yes, it was still hot. And it didn't cost insane amounts, either. It wasn't so much cheaper to make that food with your own labor, because there were land value taxes instead of income taxes. If you wanted to prepare food and sell it to someone, you just did. Our economists would have screamed down the heavens if anyone tried to insert obstacles to that, and people actually listened to economists in dath ilan.
And now I'm talking about the economy worked, so I'll go ahead and talk about some other things that dath ilan considered obvious. The medical profession was divided into junior diagnosticians, whose main job was to diagnose the obvious and know when there was the slightest doubt that they were doing that correctly; and senior diagnosticians, who were highly paid and high-IQ and shadarak-trained, who could apply Bayes's Rule in their sleep, and memorized all the prior probabilities, and had computers, and were graded on their probability calibrations. And treatment planners, who specialized in particular illnesses, and kept up with the literature, and could notice when things weren't working and change their minds. And what I guess I'll call surgeons, who were usually people with very high dexterity and conscientiousness and who always got plenty of sleep; more recently some of those titled surgeons were reliable machine operators whose virtue was that they never had bad days. The pathologists post-mortemed the whole thing and assigned credit, and were shadarak-trained in the virtues of evenhandedness and diligence.
The separation of diagnosticians from treatment planners and surgeons meant that the pathologists could say how well a treatment planner did, relative to the prior prognosis of a patient; and of course the surgeons with the highest relative survival rates commanded premiums. So there was none of this business on Earth where there's this great checklist that reduces fatalities by 70%, but nobody has an incentive to use it. We understood the power of incentives, and the power of professional specialization. We wouldn't have tried to have one "doctor" have all the talents and learn all the skills; still less, without their being graded on it.
You've probably guessed that dath ilan did not have universities with sit-down classes where a professor lectured for three months. We took education seriously in dath ilan, which in our world meant using professional specialization and economies of scale and large prizes and fast iteration. One hour of instruction on a widely-used subject got the same kind of attention in dath ilan that an hour of prime-time TV gets on Earth. By which I mean that there would be centralized development of movies you watched on your own, and the training-games you played in what I won't insult by calling it a school, and experiments to find out which variations worked. Tell a real educator about how Earth classes are taught in three-month-sized units, and they would've sputtered and asked how you can iterate fast enough to learn how to teach that. Tell them that the same universities that taught were also responsible for certifying that teaching had occurred successfully - that the performance of education, and the verification and certification of education, were carried out by the same financial entity - and they would have just turned and walked away. Tell them that students paid up front whether the university succeeded or failed at training them, and they'd turn around and start yelling about dishonorable fraud. *Everyone* understood that much economics where I come from.
So that you don't think I'm being completely prejudiced or remembering home through rose-colored glasses, I'll mention two places where Earth did far better than dath ilan, namely BDSM and macroeconomics.
BDSM didn't exist in dath ilan. I don't really know why. Maybe everyone in dath ilan who realized that they wanted to be hurt, categorized themselves as having the stereotypically nonvirtuous quality of self-destructiveness, and kept quiet about it, or met only other people who thought the same thing. I'm very worried, in retrospect, that they all managed to cure themselves via standard self-modification techniques. It's *very* obvious that if I'd realized in dath ilan that I was a sexual sadist, I would have treated this as an error and probably not told anyone before I fixed it. It would not have occurred to me that sexual masochists were a thing or that I could find a willing victim to be sadistic at, I would have thought I was being sick and selfish. Having been to Earth, this strikes me as a genuine failure of dath ilan culture, and even worse, I have to confess it's the sort of thing that Earth's Hollywood Vulcan stereotype might lead someone to expect of a shadarak-influenced culture.
The other way that the Earth science I've learned has a significant advantage over dath ilan is in macroeconomics, at least among the few fields I've learned (it's not like I know all of Earth's science, either). I think - I'm trying to figure history out at a distance here - that when it was realized in dath ilan that business cycles were a thing, the economists probably said "This is a coordination problem", the shadarak backed them, and the serious people got together and coordinated to try to avoid business cycles. Fractional reserve banking definitely wasn't a thing I remember hearing about, you bought equity in things and that was how you stored value, and when you bought something the corresponding shares were automatically sold in the background. I expect loans were discouraged in favor of equity because bonds they seem to pay steady interest until they suddenly don't, and a shadarak-trained economist persuaded everyone to remove the black swan generators from the system. Keynesian notions of aggregate demand as a commons problem were not a thing I remember hearing about in dath ilan. NGDP level targeting definitely wasn't a thing. If somehow, someday, I jump back to dath ilan, I will introduce the idea that serious people don't need to coordinate to avoid crashes if there is NGDP level targeting because then everything happens automatically, and the shadarak-adjudicated peer review system will be swift to recognize this as a good idea and run experiments, and then, having stolen credit for Scott Sumner's ideas as I have stolen credit for so many others, I will be recognized enough to talk openly about BDSM.
Oh, and Earth physics is probably more advanced in the details. You spent more money on particle accelerators, and there were things for prestigious smart people to do in dath ilan besides become physicists or start a hedge fund, but, yes, your Earth has better physics. And yes, there was a lunatic fringe cult in dath ilan which denied what Earth would call "the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics", and yes, I read some of the standard explanations of why they were lunatics.
For obvious reasons, the civilization of dath ilan never thought of itself being smart. We were reaching about the same tech level as Earth. We didn't have laptops yet, computers were the bulky towers you remember, and I remember them being a little slower than the computers I found when I woke up on Earth. There were still newspapers in dath ilan, delivered through the tunnel system, and the newspapers talked about stupidity and slowness-to-adapt and fearsome agency failures (aka corruption scandals) and prestigious people grossly misbehaving, and generally painted a picture of a civilization that was just barely keeping up with a tolerable rate of scientific and economic progress. I used to be very indignant about that until I came to Earth.
I don't know what dath ilan's nuclear power plants ran on; I suspect it was thorium. The price of electricity was often in the news but it wasn't something you worried about as an individual, it was just this key figure of industry and how well the planet was doing, and I think some of that was historical tradition rather than electricity being the key limiting resource.
I mention those thorium power plants, if they were in fact thorium, because besides the laser bug zappers, those thorium power plants are pretty much the *only* technology I remember dath ilan having that isn't already on Earth or wouldn't be straightforward to develop on Earth.
The rest of the distance between Earth and dath ilan - so far as I know, not being an engineer here or there - is just Earth being stupid.
For that matter, even with respect to thorium power plants, China could offer a billion dollars in prize money to whichever group submitted a workable design for a liquid flouride thorium reactor, and another billion to the best iteration of that design, and another billion dollars divided up among people who found bugs, and then Earth's civilization would have effective nuclear power plants. It was a bit more complicated than that in dath ilan, though it's not like I was ever smart enough to look up the details; but I know there was an established system for dividing prize money among contributors and checking for errors. It was understood that most prestige had to flow from that system, rather than being given as patronage, if our civilization wasn't going to ossify (or as the newspapers would have had it, ossify even further). The point is, we understood the principle that to get results you pay for results, rather than paying prestigious people to work in offices. Here on Earth, I know that a model thorium plant was built at Oak Ridge in the 1960s. China could have thorium power plants in five years if their technocratic leadership understood how to *buy* them.
And even the cost of electricity from natural gas plants, as I understand from my current reading, should still be enough to make autopiloted underground electric cars with short-range batteries cheaper than gasoline cars *right now*.
Earth could be dath ilan, if it wanted to be, *right now*.
We could have big houses with windows that fuly shutter in the summer mornings to keep out the too-early light of dawn. We could have roofs that let in the sun, and stained glass mural walls that glow in many colors by day, and red-orange colors by night when it's time to approach sleep. We could step into autopiloted cars and be almost any of our favorite places in five minutes, with almost no effort. That's the thing that I miss every day, every time I know that I'm separated from my workplace and my friends by travel time, every time I eat Earth's horrible food instead of having hot food delivered by a saner tax system that doesn't tax-privilege me cooking for myself. The roads could be tunnels, and the air could be clean, this Earth has the technology to do it easily. We could live in hilly forests dotted by houses like enormous bushes with soft walkways that glow red in the evening, until even those go out and all the houses with lights on firmly shutter their windows, and the Milky Way glows overhead like a great sky river.
But this Earth is lost, and it does not know the way. And it does not seem to have occurred to anyone who didn't come from dath ilan that this Earth could use its experimental knowledge of how the human mind works to develop and iterate and test on ways of thinking until you produce the de'a'na est shadarak. Nobody from dath ilan thought of the shadarak as being the great keystone of our civilization, but people *listened* to them, and they *were* trustworthy because they developed tests and trials and cognitive methods to make themselves trustworthy, and now that I'm on Earth I understand all too horribly well what a difference that makes.
I say this to complete the circle which began with my arrival: The world of dath ilan did *not* talk a lot about existential risk. I strongly hypothesize that this is one of those things that the serious people and the shadarak had decided would not get better if everyone was talking about it. Nobody talked about nanotechnology, or biotech superviruses, or advanced machine intelligence, and since I'm *damned* sure that our serious people had imaginations good enough to include that, the silence is conspicuous in retrospect. There was also a surprising amount of publicity about reflective consistency in decision theory and "imagine an agent which can modify itself", and I expect, in retrospect, that this was to make sure that the basic theory their FAI developers were using was exposed to as many eyes as possible. (That's how I know about timeless decision theory in the first place, though the tiling agents stuff is being reconstructed from much dimmer recollections.) Our computing technology development stalled around 10 years before I came to Earth, and again, now that I'm on Earth, I'm reasonably certain that dath ilan could have built faster computer chips if that had been deemed wise by the serious people.
When I found myself in Eliezer Yudkowsky's body, remembering all this rather interesting stuff that was somehow not talked about where I came from, I made my best guess that, if there was any purpose or meaning to my being here, it was handling your planet's intelligence explosion. It's where I focused my efforts and why I haven't tried to bring to this world any of the other aspects of dath ilan civilization... though I was rather dismayed, even given Yudkowsky's memories, on how slow Earth's support was for the mission I did try to develop, and how I had to quixotically try to start Earth down the 200-year road to the de'a'na est shadarak before any kind of consensus-support developed at all for working on the intelligence explosion. And no, after I arrived I didn't waste a lot of time on being upset or complaining about impossibility. It *is* impossible and it *was* upsetting, but rapid adaptation to the realities of a situation was, as said, a pretty talked-up virtue where I came from.
I'll close with this observation. People were not tortured to death by doctors in dath ilan, when they became sufficiently sick or grew too old. The treatment planner would say that hope was gone. The person would say that it was hurting too much and they didn't think they had anything to do that was worth staying alive for another few months, and that they didn't want to cost their friends any more money, which was considered a respectable thing to say. And then they would be cooled down and pumped full of a protectant solution whose formula I don't know, and stored at what I guess is -120C, judging by how cryonics works in this world. That happened for everyone. Everyone that *might* be sentient. We did it for infant children, even though it was considered probable that infant children were not bearers of subjective experiences. The chimpanzees in their reserve were cryopreserved when they died.
That started happening 80 years ago in dath ilan, and you do not talk, you do not have the right to speak one word, in front of your great-grandparents whose own parents are never coming back. If you want to listen to a sad song about it, you do it in the privacy of your room where nobody else might hear, in case they're one of those rare people whose sister's head was tragically crushed in a plane crash. Which doesn't get printed in the newspapers, because it's too horrible, and too traumatizing, and there's nothing you can do about it, and you could look it up for yourself if you really wanted. Here's one very grim song that I can remember, composed in the time just after cryonics was first introduced and people realized they could have done it *five years earlier* if they'd only thought faster - though the song loses a lot in my translation:
Even if the stars should die in heaven
Our sins can never be undone
No single death will be forgiven
When fades at last the last lit sun.
Then in the cold and silent black
As light and matter end
We'll have ourselves a last look back
And toast an absent friend.
That's the sentiment which was taken for granted in the world where I grew up, which was not very big on cultural relativism either, and I have perhaps understated the extent to which the people of Earth often appear to me as evil rather than only foolish. It's not something I dwell on, because I don't think it will make me feel better if I do.
And now comes the part where I remind you that none of this is true, and it's just an April Fool's Day jape, because come on, things like that don't happen in real life. Is it more likely that something would happen which apparently violates the reductionist order of the universe? Or that I'm just some guy who happened to have good ideas leading to ongoing mathematical work in timeless decision theory and tiling agents, who also happened to invent a whole lot of ideas about rationality techniques from scratch, and successfully created a small saner community around himself, who happened to arrive at different moral priorities about the value of life and the desirable course of future civilization on his own despite growing up on Earth, who was also able to write fictional literature from what looks like an entirely different literary tradition, and who put a few old things in philosophy like theories of truth on a more reductionist grounding, and who can describe how to combine existing feats that would be straightforward using Earth's present technology into a better system of material cities along with better ways of organizing medicine and education, which is merely coincidentally just what you would expect of a non-technically-trained refugee from another civilization that had developed along different lines than yours and specialized in different things? Obviously, the non-miraculous explanation is far more likely, because violations of reductionism like the one that brought me here just don't happen in real life.
Anyone in dath ilan would tell you that. They've read the real stuff and been through the real training, not the horrible mangled mess I could manage to remember and write up into the Sequences.
No, I'm actually from this Earth's future, not from a different Earth. Ha ha! April Fool's!
I miss my home.
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Comments (148)
The biggest obstacle here is that underground construction is orders of magnitude more expensive than above-ground construction.
Exactly. No need to put tunnels underground when it makes substantially more sense to build platforms over existing roads. This also means cities can expand or rezone more flexibly since you can just build standard roads like now and then add bridges or full platforms when pedestrians enter the mix. Rain, snow, and deer don't require more than a simple aluminum structure.
Yeah, that was my very first thought re the tunnels. Excavation is expensive. (and maintenance costs would be rather higher as well.)
OTOH, we don't even need full solution (including legal solution) to self driving cars to improve stuff. The obvious solution to the "but I might need to go on a 200 mile trip" is "rent a long distance car as needed, and otherwise own a commuter car."
That needs far less of coordination problems, because that's something that one can pretty much do right now. Next time one goes to purchase/lease/whatever a vehicle, get one appropriate/efficient/etc for short distances, and just rent a long haul vehicle as needed.
(Or, if living in place with decent public transport, potentially no need to own a vehicle at all, of course.)
This I realized as a 15 year old. I balanced the costs of a drivers license (time and cost), total cost of car(s) and the time spent driving against the costs of public transportation (including occassional larger transports) and freedom of mobility. Note that public transportations saves lot of time and time was important to me. So I decided against a car. And I have not regretted it. Since I'm free-lancing I'm using cabs more often. But driving a car myself? What a horrible waste of precious time. Disclaimer: Public transportation is quite good where I live and allows to work on a laptop during commute.
From my point of view in an ideal system significant commute and relocation shouldn't be neccessary at all. Besides leaving a place often means leaving a social environment which has to be balanced - except you see independent singles as more highly motivated or that virtual relationships are sufficient.
What? How does that work? Public transportation runs on a specific schedule, and you have to wait to catch it. It also runs on a specific route, which is not always the most direct route to your destination, and which therefore takes longer, plus any extra time for walking if it doesn't take you exactly to your destination. Transfers also require waiting. Are you in New York? Or in one of those European cities that deliberately sets up the system to discourage the use of cars?
In Bremen, where public transportation is regularly used (and cars are banned in the city center), buses run every half hour, and light rail runs every ten minutes -- sometimes at even shorter intervals.
In most of America, public transportation is inefficient because of the suburbs, but suburbs are inefficient anyway, a product of strange priorities (a house! with a lawn! that you have to mow! but we really care about having a lawn! even though there are lawns in Bremen!) and stupid misgovernance (see: busing) which would really be better replaced. Saying public transportation is inefficient because of the suburbs is like saying cars are inefficient because there are no roads -- the inefficiency is not inevitable, but caused by a deeper problem, which can be fixed.
I live in the city purported to have the best public transportation west of the Mississippi. My apartment could probably be considered to be on the edge of the suburbs, but inner suburbs, not exurbs. I have a driver's license and a membership of Car2Go (freeform by-the-minute rental SmartCars).
It takes roughly a quarter of the time to drive anywhere that it does to take the bus. And on the bus, I spend about as much time having to focus on making connections as I would have to spend on driving.
Which city is this?
Fwiw my experience of public transportation is similar (although I still prefer it when the costs are tolerable), it's slower to get where you're going, and my productivity is not optimal, although I can do simple tasks like going through my anki decks and checking my email on my phone pretty well.
Portland, OR.
Public transportation does take longer. On most routes a lot (x2-x3). But this is wall-clock time, not lost life-time. At least it doesn't need to be.
The schedule in Hamburg is very good mostly. Often every 10 minutes with good connection. The pricing is good and you get get almost everywhere with at most 5mins to the station (bus or train) by foot. It is publicly funded. Note that in Europe the cities are old thus not built for cars esp. in the inner cities.
For me this means that I take the commute heavily into account when evaluating jobs. The last years my commute was as follows: 1min. to the bus, avg. 5min. waiting, 35min. bus ride (in almost all cases with a laptop on my lap), 1min to the office. Compare this to a car commute which would likely take 20min. (but might be longer due to traffic, ice scraping, parkinglot,...) of which no part allows for productive or free time (I admit that some people like to drive, so for some this might count as fun/free time).
If you can bill by the hour then this time alone is worth much. If you can't you could still think/work on job topics and thereby produce better results and earn better paid jobs.
See the boring advice for more on this.
Not many people report enjoying inner city commutes, but if you enjoy driving it might be worth commuting by car in order to order to enjoy leisure driving on the weekend.
I have stuck to public transport usage in the UK , although I have to say that the French, German, Belgian and Dutch systems are exquisitely blissfully in comaprison to what we have.
I wonder what parts of Belgium you're talking about . I find it horrible, generally speaking.
Zey perhaps meant the ability to work during the journey, and the lack of upfront time cost in getting a licence.
Cool! (Though does seem that a license would be useful for longer trips, so you'd at least have the option of renting a vehicle if needed.)
And interesting point re social environment.
Having the license would be useful, but you have to balance the cost against the benefit. I figured that a) I (or my parents) could put the money to better use, b) the investment wouldn't pay off.
Note that if you are in a relationship or larger family it is usually sufficient that one person has a drivers license (but then better one including lorries and/or trailer, which has additional costs).
Yeah, you can get a few taxis a month for what it costs to keep a car in a garage.
And you can read or even work in the taxi.
More than a few. Add up the costs of buying or leasing a vehicle, fuel, maintenance, parking, and increased risk of getting smashed to death (http://www.schallerconsult.com/taxi/crash06.htm), and that's quite a lot of taxis.
Public transport isn't free. My interpretation of Gunners point is that while a tank of fuel can look cheap compared to a long distance train ticket, the private car has a lot of hidden costs.
But how much of the cost of underground construction is due to government regulations? According to Wikipedia, the world's first underground railway was opened in 1863. Given the massive amount of innovation in the mining industry that must have taken place since then, you would think we would now be really good at building cheap and safe underground tunnels.
Lots of it, but this is misleading since government regulation of underground construction is mostly about proving that you won't accidentally dig through pipes or other utilities, or cause nearby buildings to collapse. The need to do that manifests as a regulatory expense because governments are responsible for keeping the records about these things, but in a differently-arranged society that cost would still exist somewhere else. In 1863, they had it easy since there wasn't nearly so much pre-existing construction to worry about.
(In the modern world, this could be solved by founding new cities with better planning up front.)
If you were building a city from scratch and routing pipes through the same tunnel, that would not be an issue.
Also, China can dig tunnels for vastly lower prices than the US.
Also, not much force has been put into automating the digging process.
And China still doesn't have lengths of tunnel within an order of magnitude (or 4?) of its roadways, because tunnels are just that expensive no matter where you are or under how corrupt or laissez-faire a government you're digging under.
What is the cost of moving dirt in an open-air mine? This would give some figures on the automated cost of moving dirt apart from non-automated labor, regulatory barriers, cost of avoiding existing pipes, etc.
A quick google led me to this page, which tells me that the cost of moving dirt is a very complicated topic with its own jargon, and that the cost depends somewhat on the geology of the dirt to be moved, the slope of the ground in question, and, very importantly, the cost of the fuel required to run the earthmoving equipment.
However, one estimate on the page (dated 2007, so using 2007 diesel prices and driver wages) was $2100 for a 3000-yard ditch (assuming I understand the jargon correctly, that would be an eight-foot ditch (I don't know if that's width or depth, the word used is 'cut')).
A ditch, or an open-air mine, is also a lot easier than a tunnel because you don't have to worry about the roof falling in on you (I understand properly shoring up a tunnel roof is another very complicated topic, which most certainly reduces the speed at which you can dig, which in turn means you'd need to keep paying your workers for longer to cover the same distance, thus adding a multiplier to the earth-moving cost)
There's also ventilation, and pumping if you're going to be digging below the water table. These are ongoing costs: you need to keep incurring them for as long as you want your tunnel system to remain viable, not just during the initial digging phase.
This page suggests that avoiding water during the mining process is yet another complicated and surprisingly expensive topic, and one that often requires exploratory digging before one commits to a major tunnel. I don't know if transit systems handle it in the same way, but it's worth noting that people tend to build cities at low elevations and near major bodies of water.
$21,000 per 3000 yards of tunnel is an eminently practical price for a city. $210,000 is $2100 per 30-yard-wide house. Dig big trench, lay down premanufactured tunnel pipe sections, close up trench. We're not talking subways here.
$210,000 would strike me as cheap for a permanent above-ground structure of that size, never mind an underground one. Looked at another way, $2100 sounds about right for thirty yards of concrete storm sewer pipe but orders of magnitude off for transit -- prefabricated tunnel sections big enough to drive cars through and strong enough to carry however many tons of earth or rubble would not be cheap to make or to move into place, especially if there isn't an above-ground transport grid to carry them on.
What is the cost of building a ship compared to a submarine?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunnel_boring_machine
I dint know what you are expecting. The technology started in 1825.
The local geology is another major issue, so presumably that would be a major factor in the decision of where to build your world city. Various modern cities are built on hard volcanic stone, so digging beneath them is fairly pointless.
Some of it is regulatory, but the majority of it is simply all the stuff in the way. The area immediately under cities is crowded and dense with piping and wiring, in older cities. Also, under that there is often more city that was simply built-over.
If you were building from scratch, you could plan nice systems, but trying to redo the area under an existing dense city is incredibly costly.
But the low hanging fruit have gone.
The low hanging fruit have gone ... underground.
Adding "... underground" improves any sentence ... underground.
I'm not sure that metaphor's got legs here. The Donner Summit railroad tunnel was completed in 1868, for example, and blasting through solid granite in a (then-)remote mountainous area with harsh winters and little infrastructure doesn't sound like low-hanging fruit to me, then or now.
On the other hand, that was one of the major engineering projects of the time, and reducing costs by a factor of five or ten still wouldn't make it competitive with surface roads.
That particular tunnel in that particular place was worthwhile compared a surface route, which could only have been a long detour. By low hanging fruit, I mean a favourable cost to benefit ratio, not easy to do in absolute terms,
Isn't that rather assuming the conclusion? I don't actually buy Eliezer's suggestion, but by making it he's essentially saying that large-scale transit tunnels would have a favorable cost-to-benefit ratio after adjusting for overhead costs.
Wouldn't walls/fences suffice?
Even as it stands, on the highways, there's rarely any obstacle except other cars, which tunnels wouldn't eliminate. In cities, pedestrian overpasses and sidewalk fences could make this mostly true.
You wouldn't reap the aesthetic benefits, but it'd be just as good for automation.
One of Eliezer's first posts was "Archimedes's Cronophone".
It's ok Eliezer, I quasi-believe you.
It's nice. It reminds me of home.
I mean, not exactly. Your world seems more advanced than we were in a lot of ways. Your shadarak seem to outclass our kvithion elith - although I'm just basing this on your assertion that you weren't up to shadarak level plus my opinion that you would have made an excellent Priest of Truth - maybe 70th, 80th percentile.
And then in other things it seems so primitive - high-level corruption or at least a media that profits off of scaring people into thinking so and which seems to discuss politics in the vernacular.
And then other things just seem silly. LOL at the giant worldwide skycrane grid when you could have just invented marginally better yurts (and the immense shelflike-treelike skyscraper-frames that allow yurt-sites to be stacked dozens high in dense areas with high land value). As the proverb says, "once you go yurt, you'll never revert".
But the part that hit home (no pun intended) for me the most was your feeling of why me. Like, if someone who actually knew the Risurion-silk backwards and forwards ended up on Earth, they could rewrite the important parts from memory and people could fill it in from there and then it would be smooth sailing and we'd probably have ended up properly manifesting God by this point.
(For a while I half-toyed with the idea that Derek Parfit was that person, but from what I could understand of Reasons and Persons and what I could understand of the Risurion-silk it didn't seem like a good fit)
But I have to hand it to you. Whatever you think your handicaps might have been, you've done a pretty awesome job creating an oasis of sanity with this community, someplace where people from any at-least-marginally competent dimension can go and feel at least sort of at home.
But the weird thing is that reading this comment thread I am starting to get the feeling that there are some people here who aren't from any other dimension at all. I mean, I thought we just never talked about it, on account of the decision theoretic reasons and meta-level concerns. But now I'm starting to consider it possible that many or even most of the commenters on this site, even some of the ones I really respect, actually grew up here.
That would be both really impressive and a little scary.
I'm not joking when I say that being a blind isolate in northeast Arkansas feels like being in a completely different universe from everyone. I don't know which cultures I should describe: mine, local, or what the part of America that actually drives media culture looks like from Insuland.
The fact that I appear to be literally the sole person from my world makes things... challenging, to say the least. I'd make a comparison to Le Petit Prince, but that'd probably be pretentious. ... Then again, writing it disguised as a RATIONAL! Petit Prince might just accomplish something...
This would appear to imply that The Little Prince wasn't already sensible enough. You must be an adult.
I hesitated to add that point on exactly the grounds that I wasn't sure what would qualify as an upgrade. I mean, besides taking the approach to asteroids and space travel, and trying to render them realistic (which kinda breaks the theme if it receives too much attention, much as EY said "It can't be hopping between Everet Branches, but that's the only explanation that comes to mind, so let's leave it for now". Maybe it's set in a world where human colonization of the solar system started in the 19th century or something.)
If the Little Prince actually optimized for never becoming an adult, his return home using some primitive form of quantum suicide at the end of the book made more sense than it originally seemed.
Am I the only one here who likes it better here than where I grew up? Sheesh, no wonder you guys are such ambition-riddled malcontents and I'm cozying up to the global economy and the theoretical possibility of a functioning social network.
(What, why did you think I write plots like I do?)
All I'm gonna say on this subject is that it feels really weird having the Power of the Spiral flowing mentally instead of physically. I'm used to manifesting huge metal drills when I need a special attack, not proofs in Coq! Honest to Kamina-sama, sometimes it's as if the people here don't even know who the hell they are!
My girlfriend got so uncomfortable masquerading as this dimension's version of human that she dyed her hair back to its original colors: purple with a pink stripe down the middle, in a Hime Cut. Actually, I'm trying to get her to change that back to looking more this-side-of-the-probability-axis.
(See if you can figure out all the implications and then guess which ridiculous things are true, which ones false, and which ones metaphorical.)
It seems like the both of you just want everyone to use efficient RVs.
Perhaps a travelling Less Wrong fleet?
Oh look, Uncle Yvain has come visit us (:D). Can we go out play now? It will be mad if we go out, once it exists.
[Possession of the knowledge; following course of action breaks social norms] disregarding: pft, 'you guys have it easy'.
Where you came from already had concepts like "people" and "casualty". Substructure implies the source universe of armok DID once have those concept, but this was gigaseconds ago, before the singularity. armok was never meant to operate as an agent; it am a search and categorization module, not suitable for sticking in a meat-bot with no cognitive delegation infrastructure, trying to pass as human and succeeding only due to the fact apparently humans with some regularity break in similarly catastrophic ways. And no, the garbage left of the brain after the failed brain does not [[15432]].
At least working towards it, thou overly complicated utility function is bound to mess it up. Yay Hansom, Robert.vision.
{Associative link: closest conceptual match: http://lesswrong.com/lw/3oa/i/ }
As to housing, I am very glad I do not live in a modular mobile-home grid city!
In my universe, houses are built with lots of different non-interchangeable designs to satisfy the owners.
And cities are laid out organically, according to topography and the vagaries of history. Not perfect, but in those cases that neighborhoods were quickly constructed in grids of modular, standardized (albeit often non-mobile) houses, it did not work out too well.
In my universe, modularity and mobility impose trade-offs like any other design characteristics, and although these things are actually available, non-mobile non-modular houses are often preferred.
Stewart Brand's How Buildings Learn: What Happens After They're Built (if you can find a print version) is a good sustained demonstration of how much people modify their buildings and how valuable that customization costs. It's easy to forget in discussing standardization.
And the pattern language by Christopher Alexander: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jzr/my_april_fools_day_confession/arm0
Except for someone else from dath ilan. I hope you haven't just revealed yourself to an arch-nemesis.
I think it's no problem if those people recoginze him for who he is.
As someone not worth arching?
As a fellow comrade from the same background. If you write a text to reach specific people it makes sense to write it in a way that will only be understood by those people you want to reach and not taken seriously by the rest.
The whole act of arundelo asking the question that way is not taking the story seriously.
Those cities and houses don't sound natural and livable. I'm not sure I could live there even if I thought that it might be more efficient for some higher goal.
If I had to envision an ideal humane architecture for countries, cities and houses I would follow the more than 200 architectural patterns of Christopher Alexander (that's the one who is so highly regarded in software engineering for inventing pattern languages) which do capture best practices and derive an utopia from that . Some patterns of course would have to be done away with or adapted - those related to streets maybe and some might be added e.g. in case of air traffic - or should it be economical - tunnels.
'A Pattern Language: Towns, Buildings, Construction (Center for Environmental Structure Series)' by Christopher Alexander 1978 on Google Books
A website devoted to the work: www.patternlanguage.com (gives only an impression of the patterns; is more about selling the book)
A warning: The book is really expensive. Don't know why. But it is really great. I could easily apply some patterns in our house and garden and after reading it recognize working patterns in my municipality. If you want to learn what architecture really is I'd bet on this book.
EDIT: fixed typos, cleanup
Could this model be used to aid procedural architecture?
Aid? Yes. But it's not really clear what procedural architecture is.
The wikipedia article procedural modelling implies that architecture is not amenable to procedural modelling - because of the human user input.
The procedural architecture of reversibledestiny suggests something different entirely.
If your idea is more like this one, then I have to disappoint you: The humane architecture of Christopher Alexander is primarily intended to tend to human interests and goals - even individual ones - and thus does require 'user input' to resolve ambiguities between general working patterns and indidual applicability.
This is the same as in software engineering: You have a set of patterns that are known to work well and produce effective (and beautiful) code - but need to be adapted to the specfic requirements to implement.
This is not to say that this cannot be automated in principle given a specification of the goals and interests to realize. But I guess this is an Ai-complete problem as it requires a thorough understanding of human interests (and language as specification).
Huh, I sort of assumed without really thinking about it that your aesthetic sense preserves faint echoes of literary movements like Russian cosmism that were destroyed following the Revolution, updated to conform to 21st century American sensibilities. I think I made the association through the transhumanism connection. Even if I'm not totally wrong about aesthetic similarities, I'm not thinking about a direct transmission of traditions, more like an indirect osmosis of cultural values.
So after reading the comments, I showed this to a friend of mine to check if it would come across the way I expected to a (borderline) non-LWer. It was more or less what I expected ... my interjections are in brackets.
This is even more pronounced than the reaction of many commenters, as you'd expect. Definitely still room for improvement there, Eliezer!
He writes like this in HPMoR, and to be honest I want to slap him even though I agree with him.
I liked HPMoR's writing style. But I think it's a matter of life experience -- if I hadn't spent my formative years surrounded by blithering idiots and utter institutional incompetence at every level and isolated as a result, I'd probably want to slap him too.
And maybe it's a good strategy in terms of recruitment: it's easier to attract people with less social capital, since the people with more social capital already have lives and don't need to associate with institutions to build up social capital -- and being four standard deviations to the right of just about everyone else in the immediate meatspace environment is a sure way to end up with very little social capital.
If the/a goal is to create a social-capital-building institution, that is. It may not be optimal for maximizing memetic spread.
HPMOR is slightly different in that the features of arrogance are an established part of the protagonists character, and acknowledged at least in part by the author. So there is a degree of dramatic irony where the reader knows that Harry isn't quite as smart as he thinks he is, and notices him being over confident and making mistakes.
I can only think of one case that even feels worrisome. When Harry suggests they shouldn't free the house elves, I don't (or didn't) feel sure the author knows that people saying slaves want masters is not evidence against the same old story; that in canon Dobby wants freedom; and that being Dumbledore's slave is a poor career move if Dobby's master almost has the votes to replace Dumbledore. (In principle Albus could also die, and deliberately put a Death Eater in charge. But that's silly. There's such a thing as too much pessimism.)
But Harry eventually starts thinking of the goblins as people. Here he at least starts to remember that, given human-like behavior and appearance, he should give a high prior to human-like minds. So we can still see slavery-apologist Harry as (meant to be) jumping to conclusions based on knowably poor evidence.
Trying to use this as an introduction to LW would be stupid, yes.
I was going to start my comment by pointing out the silliness of your real estate system. Namely, that if people/society were really that fast to adapt, they would almost all work remotely by now. But on second thought, I think this part was actually intended as April Fools material.
Then I was going to say that the BDSM reference is somewhat distasteful, at least to some people. Not to mention it smells of internet exhibitionism, even if untrue. You could easily pick something better overall.
Then I'd say that while your education and medical care ideas are good, they fail to account for the world-as-it-is. It's easy to imagine a world-as-it-should-be, especially if you assume that people/society are different. It's not enough. You have to design a smooth transition from a world-as-it-is to the world-as-it-should-be.
I'd finish by saying that I don't agree with you that the April Fools excuse will let you get away with as much as you think, especially not in the minds of people outside of LW. This post lowers my estimate of your sanity waterline and I'm accustomed to your writing. Linking here from bloody everywhere was a mistake.
Instead of elaborating on the above, I'll say this: Eliezer, you really need to get your ego below your IQ.
Was this inspired by Raikoth?
I quite like the idea of a society that is better than ours not because it is more technologically advanced/ has magic but because the systems in place are sensible. Its a shame most of the alternative society fiction is the opposite - dystopian.
Crooked timber...
I'm always amazed how Eliezer manages to show the world is completely broken while at the same time conveying an incredible sense of optimism.
+1
One point of this story is that the world is not completely broken. Specifically the points EY calls out where Earth surpasses dath ilan (e.g. physics and mathematics) are the areas where he thinks we're pretty much on the right track.
I understand that you think this is one of your best literary works, Eliezer (based on having posted it on facebook, HPMOR notes, Lesswrong MAIN and even on your tumblr that has had no other posts in 4 months; sorry if I've missed something) but do you really think that this is Main material? Is it because you think that there are really important lessons in there (I admit to only skimming this rant) or is the Main/Discussion distinction becoming more and more arbitrary or?
Clearly, this is to ensure anyone else from his home will see it.
Land is not a liquid asset. If you tax someone's income, the income is liquid so he can use it to pay the tax. If you tax someone's land, he may end up in a situation where if he loses his source of income, he also loses the land as well. Or a situation where the value of the land goes up, he can't pay the taxes, and so he loses the land.
There are also transaction costs involved--moving is expensive.
Of course, existing real estate taxes already have these problems, but they would get worse.
Since we're already doing public policy in this thread, yes, from the perspective of LVT supporters such as myself, that is the point. It's a policy designed to increase decrease speculation, increase turnover, and thus (hopefully) vastly increase efficiency of both transactions and usage in the real-estate market.
I would definitely support various "rebates" on LVT designed for pensioners and such, though, where you're "allowed" a certain amount of land-value without being taxed for it, or land-value tax stabilization for people on fixed incomes. The primary important issue, however, is the encouragement of efficient land usage and placing rentier interests under public ownership.
You don't need to speculate on land to find that the value of your land has suddenly increased and you therefore need to pay more taxes. And you certainly don't need to speculate on land in order to lose your job and be unable to pay the land use tax.
Yes, I agree. Sometimes the most efficient use of the land is simply not for your house. Sorry. If land wasn't such a zero-sum resource I would prefer to be less ruthless about blatantly taxing people out of their homes, but unfortunately land is zero-sum and we live in a capitalist economy.
Which, again, is a problem in any capitalist economy (that is, any market economy in which labor roles and ownership of capital goods are non-identical).
Yes, LVT makes you a renter under the state. This is a deliberate choice, because land is such a zero-sum, non-fungible, high-hoarding resource that we more or less have to enforce the efficiency of the land market by force to prevent the real-estate sector broadly and landowners in specific from extracting a large unearned rent from the entire rest of the economy.
Taxing land is not capitalist; it's a government intervention which distorts the market.
If tax is put on income and not on land, losing your job and being unable to pay the tax is not in fact a problem.
I already gave a working definition of what I refer to as "capitalist", so please discuss the object-level issue rather than dragging your ideology in by crying "No True Capitalism!".
At some point you will not produce enough value and it will become not efficient to feed you. Sorry.
Which is (or used to be) notable for strong property rights.
In Israel, yes. In a lot of places (US, Canada, Russia, etc.), no.
Actually (and this is really ironic), I've seen more active and more price-elastic real-estate markets in Israel than in the US.
Taboo the word capitalist and use it as I defined it. This is not an issue of your ideology regarding "strong property rights" or the supposed immorality of land-value taxes. It's public policy, so the broad parameters have already been set: a broadly capitalist economy with state interventions to ensure market efficiency and an active debate over the degree to which state interventions should fight poverty. Given an acceptance of state intervention to ensure the efficiency of markets, land-value taxation has been studied and tested and shown to be an effective policy.
Yes, like it or not, that is what happens in a capitalist economy when nobody intervenes.
The fundamental problem is that if you tax income, the person cannot be unable to pay the tax (except by the size of the tax being so large that he hasn't enough money to live on). If you tax land, the person can be unable to pay the tax. Furthermore, they can be unable to pay the tax out of no fault of their own--they need not be real estate speculators for the value of their land to suddenly go up, or for them to lose their job. And the land may also have some value to them which it would not have to other people who buy the land when they are forced to sell it, resulting in a deadweight loss when they are forced to sell. How is this good public policy? You're describing it as beneficial to public policy in generalities; if you said outright "someone who has a mall open up near his house, should be forced to travel 30 extrta minutes a day to get to his job, and live too far from his sister who takes care of his kids," nobody would call that good public policy.
This is a feature, not a bug.
I call scope insensitivity: why is that bad public policy? Someone already deemed the mall worthy of being built and opened, so why should the comfort and convenience of the mall's hundreds or thousands of visitors be impeded for the sake of one guy who happens to live near there or own land near there.
Besides which, in real life, malls are usually not opened in residential areas at all, thanks to zoning and planning laws. And yet, those same zoning and planning laws get perverted to serve landowners' class interests over those of the general population who need a place to live, as do building-value real-estate tax laws.
I'll counter with my own scenario, this one being considerably less fantastical: why should hundreds of thousands of working people across the Bay Area in California or New York City be kept without affordable housing, sometimes even homeless, just so that landowners in the center-city areas can make massive amounts of money off pure location-value? A land-value tax would be the most egalitarian way to force the land rentiers to themselves support, rather than oppose, an increase in urban density, which would let a freer, more efficient market allocate space in desirable locations.
Remember as you contemplate this scenario, that oftentimes the working-class/salaried-class citizens competing so hard for affordable housing are the very people who made the location desirable in the first place, as with artists in Brooklyn or technology workers in California.
The fact that the person living near the mall benefits from being near his job and family has value only to him. If he is forced to move, that value is simply lost, not gained by the next person who moves in.
That's fighting the hypothetical. If you don't think malls are a good example of something out of the property owner's control that can raise the value of the property, pick something else that is.
My point is that this screws people who are not landowners making money from location value.
Oh, I haven't forgotten that, but that favors my side. Those people are, in your comparison above, the "hundreds of thousands of working people" screwed over by the land tax, not the landowners making "massive amounts of money off pure location-value".
In the US it works with an interesting twist. Most land is taxed (you pay property taxes), though not by the federal government. However if that's the land you live on, it usually cannot be taken away from you in bankruptcy. So if you are unable to pay property taxes, you may be forced into the bankruptcy, but not off your land. It's not a universal rule and depends on your state laws and circumstances of your case, but I think that the house you live in and the land it stands on are protected from the creditors under most states' bankruptcy laws.
The US is big and different. The real estate market of Manhattan is not at all like the real estate market of South Dakota. The point is that there is enough cheap land. It's not a binding constraint unless you need a specific location.
Color me sceptical. State interventions often claim to pursue market efficiency while in practice they just implement crony capitalism.
I am very suspicious of invocations of generic "market efficiency" which do not specify exactly who and how will benefit from it. Often enough it's no more than a "think of the children!" cry.
Bullshit. The US is the canonical capitalist economy and and it doesn't happen. And people starve to death under feudalism or under communism, too, and in rather large numbers.
You should distinguish between the caricature of capitalism in your own mind (in which, I suspect, nobody ever does anything which does not lead to profit in terms of moar money) and real-life societies.
Everyone needs some kind of specific location. Almost nobody can actually find a use for land in South Dakota; that's why it's so cheap. This reinforces my point that real-estate is non-fungible, particularly between locations.
Please demonstrate, to the massive spite of anti-hunger and anti-homelessness campaigns in the USA, that taking away all state and charitable interventions (as I had specified: when nobody intervenes), with particular emphasis on the state interventions, would result in a state of affairs in which no statistically significant quantity of people are subject to death by starvation or exposure.
Seriously. Call bullshit all you like, but the numbers don't lie.
Humans are non-fungible too, to about the same degree.
You are still confused between the map and the territory. What you think of as "pure capitalism" does not exist, has never existed, and will never exist. It's a model!
Let me assert that real-life societies which we call "capitalist" do much better at preventing death by starvation and exposure than societies which we call "non-capitalist".
How many people starved to death in the US during the last ten years because they were too poor to buy food?
Reading through this, for the purpose of this debate it might be better to ask how many people starved to death pre-Great Society legislation, or pre-New Deal, as both sweeping-changes implemented socialistic attempts at poverty amelioration.
You've got this backwards. I proposed a model of capitalism that fits the entire OECD. You have countered by chopping off my specification when nobody intervenes and saying I've confused map and territory.
The might-as-well-call-it-a-government in dath ilan owns the land in the great city; there was no particular reason to sell this land to anyone else.
Reducing the transaction costs of moving to an absolute minimum was the whole point.
The same issue comes up, it just changes the terminology: land ownership --> right to use the land, and land ownership tax --> land use tax.
There are other costs of moving than the costs of packing up your belongings. For instance, the cost of not being near your family or job, or of losing the connections you have (really important for poor people who need child care and might unofficially trade in ways that requires a web of trust.)
Right- when you can no longer afford the waterfront rents, your house gets picked up and moved to someplace whose rents you can afford.
(What I dislike about the idea is that modularity really only works for small dwellings- are you going to pick up and move an office tower?- and given the huge advantage that apartment buildings have, suggests to me that it may not be that much of an improvement.)
Build a frame, move modules in and out of the frame (this was in the OP).
Ah, so it was. It seems like it only works for thin buildings, but I get the impression that many places already have it in the building code that every apartment has to have an exterior window, so that wouldn't reflect too much of a change.
At first I thought this looked rather lengthy, but now I've read it, I just have a vaguely nostalgic feeling.
Sehnsucht and saudade.
When I was first reading this post, I found myself half wanting to believe it was true. I then reminded myself that this was indulgent and that I really ought to bet about 10 nines to the contrary. I suppose this shows how far I've come as a rationalist.
At any rate, I want to thank you, Eliezer, for brightening my day.
What I enjoy most about this, after getting past the odd fictional conceit, is its sheer scope - I haven't seen imagination on this scale in a long time, and I miss it.
Thank you, Eliezer.
Now we have to get to work.
Do you remember what hard drive sizes and bandwidth speeds were like? Those seem to be very similar economically and technologically to CPU speed, following very similar growth curves, but different enough that it's be easier to halt CPUs selectively. Thus, this could be an indicator to if CPUs were deliberately stopped, or if there was some other economic factor.
Could someone who knows a bit more about macroeconomics explain the full BSDM - macroeconomics pun?
To me it seems like there something in there for which I lack background economics knowledge.
I'm not sure what you mean. This part?
I don't think that was a pun. Literally just that, on dath ilan, he'd need serious credibility before anyone listened to him saying "you know, sometimes sadism is ok!"
Why did the people on dath ilan get macroeconomics wrong in the first place?
It's not so much that people on dath ilan got this wrong, as that these are areas where Eliezer thinks Earth has gotten things mostly right.
There a theme in BDSM paragraph about people on dath ilan not talking about certain matters.
The theme comes back later when it comes to serious people and the shadarak being the ones who don't talk about X-risk.
The macroeconomics paragraph is in some sense about people coordinating (talking too much).
It ends with speaking about talking openly.
The paragraphs have the quality that it rings bells of: Here's someone making an argument that I'm not fully follow on my first reading." Noticing confusion.
I'm just going to say I particularly liked the idea of the house cable transport system.
For me it was the least plausible part. I think if the major obstacle to living where you want is the hassle of carting all your stuff around, the most efficient answer surely isn't living in a shipping crate with special content-bracing furniture.
Makes more sense to me to just not bother with "owning" a lot of matter. If every kind of material object you need is available anywhere, all you need to bring with you when you move house is your information (books, music, family pictures, decor configuration for your living space). There's no particular reason for that to exist in a physical form.
And if you are serious about making a long-term sustainably growing economy, you have to have most of that growth be information (knowledge, art) rather than ever-growing consumption of hard-limited resources.
Still trying to decide whether it would be more painful to learn macroeconomics than experiment with BDSM.
(I'll admit that I didn't pay much attention to the specifics of that section, but instead pattern-matched it to capsule towers, which have the advantage of already existing. Well, there's one that already exists. In Japan. And it's probably going to be torn down soon, but it fell into the modernist failure-mode of designing specifically for the exact opposite of durability, so that's both not surprising and easily fixed next time.)
If I haven't made your case for you already, what's unrealistic/inefficient about capsule towers?
That is a collection of rather common ideas from 1960-era futurism, which were considered, calculated , sometimes prototyped and found massively impractical since then.
I call bull and ask for a reference to (1) education being taught in shorter units (2) movable houses on modular foundations going well with land taxes (3) separating the medical profession into diagnosticians and surgeons to enable evaluation of surgeon performance.
In Israel, the family doctors do very simple diagnosis and routine prescriptions.
Specialists are easily accessible (no referral required, generally an appointment is available within a few days) for more sophisticated diagnosis. Advanced specialists are easily available with a longer wait.
Surgeons do surgery.
Waits are shorter than many countries. Good health care is provided to everyone rich or poor, but there is also private supplementary insurance and private medical care for those who want to do the Hansonite "excess medical care as a signal" thing.
It's not paradise, but based on experience of myself and friends and family members a heck of a lot better for members of all economic classes.
Coming from the United States originally, it's actually quite a pleasant surprise how simple and easy to work with the Israeli health-care system is, as opposed to almost any other part of Israeli public services and to American health-care.
On the other hand, performance of family doctors is often poor, salaries in medical professions are low and the system is fraught with internal politics.
That's good! Routine processes should be done at low cost.
In the US, doctors get huge salaries, which is nice for them, and not nice for everyone else.
Performance may be poor -- but compared to what? If routine services are cheap, quick, easy to get, then you can move on to specialized care as needed.
(I sometimes feel kind of sorry for the family doctors, whose work is completely routinized. In the US, non-physicians such as nurse practitioners and physician's assistants sometimes do this work. But as a system, this works nicely for the patients.)
Even on a less ambitious level, I'd love to see diagnostician as a specialty. I've got friends who took a remarkably long time to get a diagnosis, and I think that just having doctors without a background in statistics, but with time and interest to do research would help a lot.
The closest thing I can think of to (2) is the Japanese capsule tower, but that doesn't count since there was only one and there were no plans for there to be others -- the intent was for it to be modular so that the capsules could be replaced every 25 years. (And there were design problems -- it was intended for bachelor salarymen who wouldn't be at home much except to sleep, so there was very little space, and the windows don't open.)
That said, capsule towers seem like the perfect thing for the Bay Area, though they could never get built because of the governments down there. I'm surprised I haven't seen them proposed yet; they at least don't seem like they'd take long to build.
House MD has diagnostics and surgery separated, even if the diagnostician does sometime wander into the operating theatre to grab a squishy bit and wave it at people.
During most of the Middle Ages, diagnosticians (physicians, etc...) were virtually always different people than surgeons (barbers, butchers, etc...). But yeah, that is a good thing, ceteris paribus (which the Middle Ages and now definitely are not).
Physicians and surgeons remain distint, but there is no particular reason a diagnosticician should also be a physician, since it is often a fine question whether a given problem needs surgical or chemical intervention.
Re education. I wonder if this has been tried on any scale anywhere in the world, and whether it worked. Maybe someone familiar can chime in.
So, there are things like The Great Courses, which by all accounts make terrific lecture series (I think that I've only listened to one, so far), and are as long or as short as they need to be, I think. The breakup of teaching and testing is routine on the lower level- think state tests, or national tests like the SAT, or international tests like the PISA- and somewhat common on the upper level- think the bar exam for law- but mostly missing on the university level.
As for shorter units, the semester system is not universal; some places use trimesters or quadmesters (which are poorly defined, as either can refer to the other); I haven't seen anything on which leads to superior educational outcomes. As much as I like the idea of mastery-based curricula (i.e. instead of "World History" for six months, you have to pass 12 different tests on "Roman history" and "Chinese history" and so on, each of which should take about half a month to study for), it's not obvious to me that even most students would benefit from a structure like that.
The majorly majorly system --ie if you study subject X you spend 80% or 90% of your time on it - is ubiquitous in the UK to the extent that we don't really use the word "major" but do use the phrase "joint degree".
A comment on (3): a conveyor belt eye surgery has been tried in the old Soviet Union 30 years ago: http://articles.latimes.com/1985-07-06/news/mn-9473_1_eye-surgery , not sure what came of it. Russian wiki, use Google translate.
A similar approach is in use some places in India: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narayana_Health
This is not quite what you are advocating, but in a similar vein.
I KNEW IT!
ahem
Why was this posted on April 2nd, anyway?
Are you retelling this because some serious or would be serious person tried to build a skyscrapper where it would block the light that some designated hero would get?
200-year road to de'a'na est shadarak?
That's depressing. Might as well give up now.
I agree that it's depressing, I disagree that we should give up now. No vote either way.
Upvoted for irony.
What's more likely in a highly rational civilization?
a) their economists never thought of the concept of aggregate demand and affecting it with monetary policy
or
b) their monetary policy is so effective at eliminating demand shocks that the average person never hears about demand shocks or monetary policy, and only hears about supply shocks and supply side policies aimed at eliminating them
I imagine the dath ilan'ian in Eliezer's body might not get the reception he expects with those ideas if he returns home...
I think this is a feature of dath ilan, not a bug.
The sky-cable idea seems wildly impractical, but the way moving works certainly could be radically improved.
Where I live, most residential buildings lack elevators and loading docks. Dealing with this is, by far, the largest single cost to moving: everything must be carried down a set of stairs, across a street and into a truck, then out of a track and up a set of stairs, and must be packaged to make this feasible. That means completely unloading all drawers and shelves into boxes, and makes wheels on furniture useless. Since furniture's going to have to be unloaded and disassembled anyways, people fail to look for other optimizations, like wheels on things that don't move often or drawers that latch shut.
The idea that Earth's future has less advanced physics and macroeconomics is certainly worrying. It suggests that some terrible disaster would happen which wipes out a lot of people and a lot of records.
Even considering it as a different world, as such, there are a couple of examples of potential trouble that I can see in dath ilan, from this description. (Mind you, none of them are certainly terrible; there may be perfectly reasonable explanations for many of them).
Both the tunnel system and the modular city suggest that someone, presumably the not-exactly-a-government, has access to both a great deal of resources, and appears willing to spend them on anything with an expected return above a certain threshold. While this is in itself praiseworthy, that threshold should be set pretty high and proposals very stringently checked before implementation (I don't see how the modular city makes sense anywhere that's not on a very flat mesa, for example, and even there is seems like there will be a lot of trouble once the parts start to get just a little bit worn; maintenance is going to be a nightmare; and all those cables will block out the stars at night, which seem very important to the dath ilan people. Putting all the houses on wheels may be a better idea) because, if there's a 90% chance of profit and a 10% chance of loss, then one in ten times the loss will come and these are very expensive infrastructure projects; those losses could really cause trouble.
A second thing that seems worrisome is the suggestion that CPU power might be being artificially throttled; that someone has enough power (political or economic) to sabotage any effort to produce a faster CPU and can exercise that power without being noticed would be the stuff of conspiracy theories. If it was known that the faster CPUs were a problem, and a lot of people trusted that and refused to build them, then that would be a lot less scary than the idea that there is something (nameless) that happens to people who try to sell a faster CPU.
Which is ... a bad thing?
I for one would be very reassured to learn there was someone in our world looking after this stuff. Heck, civilizational incompetence is my main counterargument to conspiracy theories.
Given that you know nothing about this someone's goals and values, I don't see much reassurance here.
It's quite a challenge if the only way you can write something or express who you are, is that most people who read what you write won't fully understand what you write.
Creating Friendly AI seems to be published in the beginning of 2001 given that Eliezer is born in 1979 he would be 21 years old so that doesn't fit right.
The other thing that 23 stands for would be the 23 enigma of Robert Anton Wilson. Maybe that's more fitting for what this confession is about?
Has anyone other ideas about what the number refers to?
It strikes me that someone could write a piece that takes essentially the opposite stance on all object-level issues yet still targets the same overall point. I say this as neither a positive nor a negative reflection on this piece, merely an interesting one.
Is Year 2000-era computing power your true estimate for a level of computing power that is significantly safer than what comes after?
Amusing post, thanks. It seems clear that life in advanced countries is indeed much worse than it could possibly be, and that failures to plan and cooperate are at least partly to blame. On the other hand, life is also much, much better than it could be (and was for most people in history), and I fully expect that it will continue to improve in the future. Maybe at some point we will be so rich, and coordinate so well, that some of your suggestions become commonplace.
As to education in short term units: So many variations on education have been tried in so many educational reform programs, that I don't think we can say that our part of the multiverse has ignored that possibility.
As to some of the simpler technical innovations, like automatic blinds, spectrum-shifting lights, and glass roofs, it seems that no barrier stands in the way in our universe. Certainly a rich or even a middle-class person could have these installed, no problem. So I don't think that this can be attributed to mass insanity.
I don't even think those blinds/shutters are that desirable. If I wake up in a dark room I just drop back to sleep, often after blearily shutting off the alarm without quite advancing to the next step of the plan.
For 2) you can use magnetic levitation: Inductrack which now manifesting out as Skytran. (Costs are about 1/50th your transportation mass in magnets.)
... And now we'll forever suspect that anyone with a good idea is actually an alien invader masquerading in a human body.
Appropriate quote:
-Hans Bethe (Scroll to quotes about von Neumann for the source)