European Conservatives and Reformists Group

Jun

Europe Decides Weekly – 20 June

Tags: Alexander Stubb, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, Angela Merkel, Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European People's Party, Gianni Pittella, Guy Verhofstadt, Jean-Claude Juncker, Jyrki Katainen, Martin Schulz, Matteo Renzi, Nigel Farage, Olli Rehn, Socialists & Democrats Group

Comments: No

Top stories: 31 May to 6 June 2014

Merkel backs Juncker but EU member states still at odds: National leaders are still discussing who should lead the new European Commission following the European elections. While the EPP Group is the strongest in the Parliament, it is still unclear as to whether the EPP candidate for Commission presidency, Jean-Claude Juncker, will be nominated by member states, after several of them expressed misgivings about his appointment. The UK’s Prime Minister, David Cameron, has allegedly indirectly threatened British exit from the EU should Juncker become President, telling Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, that the move may force him to bring forward his planned referendum on EU membership. Meanwhile, Juncker has received support from the rival candidate of the European Socialists, Martin Schulz, and Greek left-wing leader Alexis Tsipras. They say that the EPP’s win in the elections means Juncker should be first in line to attempt to win a majority. EurActiv; Gulf News; New Europe; EUObserver; European Voice; Guardian; Euronews; Tagesschau; FAZ; Bloomberg; Irish Times; KTVL news; Deutsche Welle; Europolitics; Sunday Times; Twitter

Leaders and contenders consider Juncker alternatives: With question marks hanging over the candidacy of Jean-Claude Juncker, Angela Merkel has reportedly asked French President François Hollande whether he would consider nominating the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, to be the next President of the European Commission. French sources say that Hollande did not support the idea. Also in France, the name of Michel Barnier, who Juncker defeated to the EPP nomination, still circulates as a possible compromise candidate. Meanwhile Olli Rehn’s expected departure to the European Parliament is likely to see Finland’s current Prime Minister, Jyrki Katainen, head to Brussels as a commissioner. He is also under consideration as a possible successor to José Manuel Barroso, although Katainen is still backing Juncker’s candidacy. EurActiv; Reuters; Le Monde

Le Pen and Farage compete to attract MEPs as ECR numbers surge: Despite his victory in Britain’s European Parliament election, the leader of the UK Independence Party (Ukip), Nigel Farage is struggling to secure the existence of his Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group. Farage is being squeezed by France’s far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, who is trying to cobble together a far-right group called the ‘European Alliance for Freedom’ and has already wooed Italy’s Northern League away from the EFD, and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group. The ECR this week added ten members (going to 55 MEPs), including former members from the Danish People’s Party and the Finns, both parties having been previously aligned to the EFD. Slovakian, German and Greek members also joined the ECR, with decisions pending on Bulgaria Without Censorship and the Alternative for Germany (whose admission to the group of David Cameron’s Conservatives could anger Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, at a sensitive time in negotiations on the Commission presidency). Meanwhile Farage is trying to forge links with Italy’s Five Star Movement, but risks not having enough nationalities to re-form the EFD. European Voice; EUObserver; Novinite; Europe Decides; Twitter; Reuters; EurActiv

Jun

Who’s going where? Tracking the musical chairs in the European Parliament

Tags: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group, European Alliance for Freedom, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European People's Party Group, Geert Wilders, Greens / European Free Alliance Group, GUE/NGL, Marine Le Pen, Socialists & Democrats Group

Comments: 242

Latest update on Monday 23 June at 13:04 CEST – see comments section for changes made. Note that parties that may switch groups are counted as remaining in their existing groups until the switch is confirmed.

EPP	S&D	ALDE	G/EFA	ECR	EFD	GUE/NGL	NI/new
221	191	67	50	70	48	52	52
27 countries	28 countries	21 countries	17 countries	15 countries	8 countries	14 countries	10 countries

The 2014 European elections brought 34 new parties or independent candidates to the European Parliament.

Now, many of those new MEPs are seeking to join political groups to strengthen their voice in the Parliament, while a battle goes on between the groups to attract new members that help ensure their survival and maximise their influence, speaking time and funding.

One new group – the European Alliance for Freedom – has also been mooted as a way to bring together anti-EU parties on the radical right. To form this and other groups, a minimum of 25 MEPs are needed, representing at least seven member states.

At the same time, other parties are considering changing groups or allying themselves to a group for the first time.

Take a look at our table listing the parties up for grabs, based on the vast array of information from intelligence we have gathered and media reports – and contribute via the button below or the comments box at the bottom of the page.

May

PollWatch 2014: EPP to remain largest party in new European Parliament

Tags: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European People's Party, European People's Party Group, Geert Wilders, Greens / European Free Alliance Group, GUE/NGL, Jean-Claude Juncker, Marine Le Pen, Martin Schulz, Opinion polls, Party of European Socialists, PollWatch 2014, Socialists & Democrats Group, VoteWatch Europe

Comments: No

For detailed results per country and methodology, go to pollwatch2014.eu

The Group of the European People’s Party will be the largest formation in the new European Parliament according to the final PollWatch 2014 prediction.

With voting due to begin in less than 48 hours, PollWatch 2014, a project developed by VoteWatch Europe in partnership with Burson-Marsteller and Europe Decides, puts the centre-right group on 217 seats, taking just under 29 per cent of the seats in the new European Parliament.

The centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group, which led in our initial predictions in February and last week narrowed the gap to just three seats, is set to be 16 seats short of the EPP number. With 201 seats, the Socialists are set to gain only a handful of seats in comparison to their current numbers. This is the lowest PollWatch 2014 score for the S&D.

Many EPP member parties have consolidated their positions during the election campaign, especially in Poland, Hungary and Germany, while a number of socialist, social democratic and Labour parties have lost ground in the past few months, notably in France, Hungary, Poland and the UK.

It should be noted that while the gap between the EPP and S&D appears wide, there is still a 15% chance that the Socialists will be larger than the EPP, taking into account margins of error. Read more

Overall prediction – 14 May

Click the slices to see the group names, predicted number of MEPs and share of total representation in the Parliament

May

The populist challenge and the mainstream response

Tags: EU-US, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, Geert Wilders, Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage

Comments: 2

Marley Morris of Counterpoint, a UK-based research group that focuses on cultural and social dynamics underpinning politics, economics and security, writes on the prospect of an increase in populist voices at the European elections:

The European Parliament elections contain a strange contradiction.

The next parliament, thanks to the Lisbon Treaty, will have more power than any of its predecessors. It will be able to elect the President of the European Commission for the first time. Vast areas of vital policy – not least the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership – are at stake. And as the first pan-European elections since the worst moments of the eurozone crisis, the results will be analysed as a crucial gauge of public opinion.

And yet there is still a long way to go to making the European Parliament elections comparable in status to national polls. Eurobarometer tells us that only 54 per cent of European Union citizens are aware that the European Parliament is directly elected.

Efforts by the mainstream European-level parties to tout their ‘lead candidates’ seem to have had limited success, with many voters unaware of the contest, and numerous commentators suspecting that the next Commission president may well be someone else entirely.

A populist surge?

Ten days from the elections, the expectation is that apathy will translate into success for Eurosceptics and populists at the polls.

Marine Le Pen (right), the leader of France’s populist radical right National Front (FN) party, and Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-Islam and Eurosceptic Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands, pledged last year to join forces. They plan to form a political group with like-minded parties in the new Parliament. Wilders has said of the proposed alliance: “We will have an enormous influence… We are working on a historical project.”

May

Europe Decides Weekly – 9 May

Tags: Alenka Bratusek, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, Angela Merkel, Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group, European Conservatives and Reformists Group, European People's Party, François Hollande, Greens / European Free Alliance Group, GUE/NGL, Günther Oettinger, Martin Schulz, Opinion polls, PollWatch 2014, Socialists & Democrats Group

Comments: No

Overall prediction – 7 May

Click the slices to see the group names, predicted number of MEPs and share of total representation in the Parliament

The ECR Group is forecast to win members from only six member states – one below the required threshold – but could well pick up new members from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) or Belgium’s New Flemish Alliance (N-VA). The latter is currently a member of the Greens/EFA Group, so a defection to the ECR could both secure the Conservative group and see it move ahead of the Greens.

As well as the ECR Group and EFD Group, a third group is set to emerge from among the 99 non-attached members, led by Marine Le Pen‘s National Front (France) and Geert Wilders‘ Party for Freedom (PVV) and also featuring parties from Austria, Belgium, Italy, Slovakia and Sweden.

Other parties classed as ‘non-attached’ are likely to join other groups in the Parliament – the result on 25 May is likely only to be the start of the story in terms of the Parliament’s composition and the choice of President of the European Commission.

Here’s our overview of the evolution of the PollWatch 2014 forecasts:

David O’Leary

For more information on PollWatch 2014, go to pollwatch2014.eu

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