Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Award for the Most Unusual Explanation for the Obesity Epidemic Goes to...

A proposed potential role for increasing atmospheric CO2 as a promoter of weight gain and obesity
Human obesity has evolved into a global epidemic. Interestingly, a similar trend has been observed in many animal species, although diet composition, food availability and physical activity have essentially remained unchanged. This suggests a common factor—potentially an environmental factor affecting all species. Coinciding with the increase in obesity, atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased more than 40%. Furthermore, in modern societies, we spend more time indoors, where CO2 often reaches even higher concentrations. Increased CO2 concentration in inhaled air decreases the pH of blood, which in turn spills over to cerebrospinal fluids. Nerve cells in the hypothalamus that regulate appetite and wakefulness have been shown to be extremely sensitive to pH, doubling their activity if pH decreases by 0.1 units. We hypothesize that an increased acidic load from atmospheric CO2 may potentially lead to increased appetite and energy intake, and decreased energy expenditure, and thereby contribute to the current obesity epidemic.
Stranger things have happened. I particularly thought that the following bit was good:
Coinciding with the sharp increase in the prevalence of human obesity over the last 50 years, weight gain has also been observed in animals. A recent study found that 24 populations of 8 different species, including laboratory animals that had been fed the same diets for decades, all displayed significant weight gain.3 This suggests that a shared environmental factor, favouring weight gain, may be involved in the regulation of energy balance. Such a factor has yet to be identified.
As I asserted previously, decent explanations for the obesity epidemic should take into account the obesity epidemic in pets, or as the authors above note, in lab animals which have apparently been fed the exact same food for decades.

Another thing that a decent explanation must take into account is the global nature of the epidemic. While the U.S. could long claim to be No. 1 in obesity, many countries are catching up, even countries such as China and India. One explanation has been that the U.S. government's low-fat dietary advice has caused the epidemic. (I've used that explanation myself.) But have the Chinese or the Indians been following our government's dietary advice? Highly doubtful.

The CO2 hypothesis above makes some, at least preliminary, sense. But I shudder to think what the IPCC will do with this.

49 comments:

Anonymous said...

Humans, like plants, are growing better.
Gilbert Pinfold.

Anonymous said...

Could be accumulating Female pseudo hormones since 60’s intro of BC Pill + their role in pesticides and plastics

Anonymous said...

meanwhile, red meat is dangerous

Dennis Mangan said...

See here: http://digressionality.blogspot.com/2012/03/takedown-of-red-meat-study.html

Anonymous said...

Seems like someone does not like "fossil" fuel companies

dave in boca said...

This study came out of Denmark, long known for harboring Global Warming advocates, including its female Prime Minister. Reminds me of Hamlet and "there's something rotten in the state of Denmark."

Scotsman said...

Mangan, slightly O/T, but related to health/weight issues.

I wonder if any of the Paleo crowd have taken a closer look at what might be called the 'Mormon Diet'. I first gave this some thought a year or so ago when I noticed that my 95-102 year great aunts and uncles from the Mormon side of my family were finally dying off. Just looking around, it seems that sincere LDS members who follow the dietary rules are one of the longest living groups of whites in the world, even beating out Swedes.

Has anyone in your Paleo world ever giving their eating habits a closer look? Seems like they are doing something right. I have started to transition to part of it, I no longer drink any caffeine or hot drinks, and I already hadnt touched alchy in several years.

Scotsman said...

Mangan, without reading the whole reply (yet), I have wondered if the Paleo crowd has a good response to seemingly strong link between red and salted/nitrated meats with colon cancer.

dearieme said...

"Such a factor has yet to be identified": it's an infection I tell you.

Wandrin said...

You gotta die of something and if you don't eat LOTS of red meat while you're alive then you might as well curl up and die now.

finndistan said...

I side with Anon 07.12...

While Co2 has risen by 40%, besides giving a perfect cause for stealing more of my already 70-80% confiscated earnings,

The birth pill has increased the estrogen in water by what? infinity%?
The industrial plastics and BPA in water by what? infinity%?
GMO crops and their infiltration into natural crops has increased by? infinity%?

But you can't tax the working man on these factors...

Revisionary said...

Human obesity has evolved into a global epidemic.

Er, does "global" include all those sub-Saharan African countries whose emaciated inhabitants are featured in heart-tugging ads? Someone should notify the World Food Programme.

Nanonymous said...

Unlikely. Wildlife is exposed to the same CO2 and there is no obesity epidemics in the wild. It seems to be restricted to humans and animals living with/near them.

Anonymous said...

A hiring panic will make you fat as well

OK, maybe it won't make you fat, but the article seems lame as well.

Dennis Mangan said...

There's some (as in a little bit) evidence of weight gain in wild animals:

"A dramatic rise in obesity has occurred among humans within the last several decades. Little is known about whether similar increases in obesity have occurred in animals inhabiting human-influenced environments. We examined samples collectively consisting of over 20 000 animals from 24 populations (12 divided separately into males and females) of animals representing eight species living with or around humans in industrialized societies. In all populations, the estimated coefficient for the trend of body weight over time was positive (i.e. increasing). The probability of all trends being in the same direction by chance is 1.2 × 10(-7). Surprisingly, we find that over the past several decades, average mid-life body weights have risen among primates and rodents living in research colonies, as well as among feral rodents and domestic dogs and cats. The consistency of these findings among animals living in varying environments, suggests the intriguing possibility that the aetiology of increasing body weight may involve several as-of-yet unidentified and/or poorly understood factors (e.g. viral pathogens, epigenetic factors). This finding may eventually enhance the discovery and fuller elucidation of other factors that have contributed to the recent rise in obesity rates."

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21106594

I'm guessing that data on other wild animals must be pretty sparse.

Dennis Mangan said...

I've seen some discussion of the Mormons in that context, esp. in refuting the notion that Seventh Day Adventists live longer because many are vegetarian. Mormons live even longer and are not vegetarian. It seems likely that all that clean living, coupled with a close family and community life could account for Mormon longevity.

Jason Malloy said...

The trend of weight gain in domestic animals is an issue I've raised previously too. I've also wondered if this applies to IQ tests, and suggested that results from animal intelligence tests should be analyzed for parallel trends. Here's a comment I left on the private gnxp discussion forum (gnxpbackchannel) in 2008:

"One idea that I like for sniffing out possible environmental effects on human intelligence is looking at the animals that share their environment. For instance IQ has a strong correlation with latitude in the US, and we see a similar effect size for every ethnic group. Does this suggest something in the environment that would influence domestic animals as well? Would, say, German Shepherds in North Dakota learn some battery of tasks quicker than German Shepherds in Alabama?

And while I'm no fan of the Flynn Effect as a real thing (Rik's 'Terminator' theory matches my hunches. Though it's hard to test, and not obvious why it operates on cohorts instead of individuals over time), we can at least say we've gotten better at a wide variety of IQ test items, and this appears to be true for every world region.

Which leads me to wonder if domestic and laboratory animals would show signs of increased puzzle learning over the last 100 years too, due to some shared mysterious feature of the environment.

The following paper shows 50 generations of rats on a maze learning task from 1933-1951. See Table 4 and Figure 2 on page 8 (314):

generation 1-4; 0-5 ebl: 0%
generation 49-50; 0-5 ebl: 18.3%

generation 1-4; 68+ ebl: 26.39%
generation 49-50; 68+ ebl: 2.66%

ebl = errors before learning

I wonder if data from separate papers on this task or others would should similar improvement over a wider span of time?"

Anonymous said...

The specific mechanism that they have in mind should be fairly easy to test.

Otherwise, there´s just far too much geographical variation for this to make much sense:

OECD Data:

USA: 27,7 % obese

Sweden: 11,2 % obese

Etc.

I would wager that the air in the US does not contain near-triple concentrations of CO2. At best it could be a catalyst.

Some further comment on the topic:

- The idea that the average serving of pet food has not undergone change during the last 40 or so years is unsupported. It is quite possible that the average feeding of pet food is quite a bit less adapted to the relevant species today than earlier.

- US style dietary advice is not limited to the US. It was implemented worldwide during the 1980-ies, and is still stringently defended by the relevant authorities, something that I can vouch for as a Yurupean.

/LP

Jason Malloy said...

(BTW the above paper is probably explained by eugenics: the lower error rats also had higher fertility)

This kind of analysis could be extended to other environments as well. While we can't cross-foster children to white and black homes, we could, for example, assign puppies from the same litter to low and high socioeconomic homes.

Do the dogs in black homes do worse on cognitive tests? If there are environmental factors contributing to cognitive differences this may be one method for narrowing down what they are.

Dennis Mangan said...

Also: http://chriskresser.com/red-meat-is-still-not-bad-for-you-but-shoddy-research-and-clueless-media-are

Anonymous said...

After reading the research there is one thing for damn sure and that is those high CO2 levels are sure producing some bad ass weed. Indyjones

Anonymous said...

Dennis,
I don't want to hijack this thread, so if you find the following topic not interesting then just delete this however if you find it interesting please give it its own thread. I want to weigh in on the debate between Steve Sailer and Matt Yglesias when it comes to density and zoning

Dennis, you live in the Bay area and I am sure at one point in your life you might like to try living in a two thousand square foot condo on Russian Hill overlooking the golden gate bridge. Right now those condos on Russian Hill cost about 1500 a square foot or about 3 million bucks for two thousand square feet. Quite out of reach.

The discussion at isteve is about getting rid of zoning so that hundreds and hundreds of 70 story condo buildings could be built wherever there was sufficient demand. Assume that you also eliminate the construction unions and that unemployed construction workers from all over America can come to SF temporarily to work on the ocean of new condo skyscrapers going up

Wouldn't that massive flood of new supply push condo prices in San Francisco to a more affordable $600 a square foot and give hundreds of thousands of upper middle class people the chance to live in San Franisco?

Seems to me that on this one issue Matt Yglesias is right and Steve is wrong - If Steve is ignored and Matt wins the day, more people in the Bay area - many many more - will be able to afford to live in San Francisco (if that is what they want)

Anthony said...

Dearieme's contention that it's an infection would account for more weight gain in pets and only sparse, intermittent results in wild animals.

Possible confounding factors - how wild is wild? The bears at Lake Tahoe (and other popular mountain resorts) eat lots of human food. People are probably packing more food with them, so bears who successfully steal food are getting more food than they used to. Which wild bears get measured, the ones at Lake Tahoe, or the ones 50 miles from any parking lots?

Anthony2 said...

Anonymous said: "The idea that the average serving of pet food has not undergone change during the last 40 or so years is unsupported."

I agree. Also, saying "it used to be 70% corn, and is now 70% corn," or what have you, could easily hide differences in the nutritional properties of the corn used.

Scotsman said...

Yes, most of the SDAs I have known have been extremely obese. I dont think Ive ever known a fat Mormon (at least, none in my extended family).

Anonymous said...

I doubt (but am not sure) that lab animals have been 'fed the same food' for decades. Keep in mind that meat scraps USED to be free at slaughterhouses (I was part owner of a slaughterhouse, and we stored the 'crap' in a meat locker until some company (that will remain unnamed but you would know it) pet food mfgs would come and pick the smelly, half decomposed mess up every couple of weeks.

My contention is that meat, even scraps are being used more and more as filler for human food and in 'premium' dog and cat foods. Hair is a component of cheap dog foods, even though it is completely non-digestible. (Lab animals eat cheap food.) It is 'protein' however and is listed as such on the bag. I expect most... lab foods... have changed significantly, if not necessarily in the macro nutrient composition (although I bet this is true as well), in the types of nutrients that make up those macro nutrients. Such as cheap, high glycemic carbohydrates (sugar - in the form of HFCS, even though I do not believe the hype that it is 'so much' worse than sucrose - as sucrose is about half fructose). So.

People have gotten fatter. Lab animals have gotten fatter. Animals that 'live off human' garbage have gotten fatter. But wild animals have not?

We both know, Dennis, that simple carbohydrates are players in the nightmare that is obesity for many people (particularly people who do not have a lot to spend on groceries, so they buy cheap and easy). They eat carbs, become hungrier for more and are fixed in that endless cycle. I was lucky to have broken that carb cycle for myself (as you did for YOURself) before it got too far out of hand.

My family is littered with grossly (not in the pejorative sense, but in the original sense) obese women. Men? Not so much. If I could convince them to stop the cycle - just for a few days, they may be able to break out of it. Nobody can stand continual hunger without giving into it, if the solution to said hunger, lies before them, as do corn chips, pies, cakes, donuts.. the list is endless.

I will be interested to see how this plays out over the next several years before the medical community 'wakes up' (or stops hiding the facts) about carbohydrate poisoning.

Oh, one more comment about domestic dogs and cats. We screw around with their endocrine system and are then surprised that they blow up like balloons? Women do it to themselves with birth control pills and who knows what other hormone destabilizers.

(By the way, I am a woman.)

somewhere over the rainbow...

Wandrin said...

Translation - we want to push America to a Bladerunner-style dystopian nightmare even faster.

If you actually wanted cheaper housing - rather than wanted to speed up turning America into a third world country - you could do it quite easily by stopping immigration and deporting illegals.

Wandrin said...

And the research being wrong of course...

although i wouldn't be surprised if there was a correlation but i'd be inclined to think it was not enough roughage rather than too much meat. So lots of red meat but with a bowl of oats in the morning.

Lucky Jim said...

The founding stock of Mormons is Yankee Puritan, great genetics as far as longevity goes. That combined with a prohibition on smoking probably accounts for the bulk of it.

Anonymous said...

Dennis, I live in the Los Angeles area

The overall trend I see is that of average IQ founding stock European Americans priced out of neighborhoods by groups with genetically higher IQ.

For example, only thirty years ago Manhattan Beach was filled with firemen, sports coaches, surfers, waiters, and others who earned a middle class living without having to be too intellectual.

Today, land in Manhattan Beach costs an average of more than $11 million an acre (I know - hard to believe for our readers in the red states) and the majority of people moving in are ones with the high IQs needed to sustain incomes of more than $500 thousand a year
yes still a few professional athletes and others of average IQ are moving in, but in general the story is of average IQ founding stock Americans displaced by those with higher IQ

Similarly, San Marino was well known throughout the USA as a bastion of colonial stock, social register types. The children and grandchildren of these types selected spouses based on good looks instead of selecting spouses based on genetically high IQs as a result the average IQ never rose.

Chinese immigrants with genetically higher IQs have now almost completely displaced the old line founding stock average IQ European Americans in the schools of San Marino.

Founding stock average IQ Euro Americans are leaving Los Angeles and moving to Utah, Idaho, and Colorado.

Dennis do you see the same thing in the bay area?

I have to believe that the average IQ in Palo Alto has risen a heck of a lot over the past 40 years as the smartest people from all over the world move to Palo Alto and those of average IQ move out.

Are those displaced from Palo Alto by high prices moving to the Rocky Mountain states too?

Anonymous said...

We really need the obesity figures for swedes living in America to see for certain how that pans out. I'd bet that they are the same.

Anonymous said...

The ones with the parabolic population curve going relentlessly upwards without any sign of slowing down? it may well at that.

Anonymous said...

Are you Yan Shen?

Anonymous said...

Charlize Theron adopts African-American baby boy name 'Jackson.'

http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-moms/news/charlize-theron-adopts-baby-boy-jackson-2012143#ixzz1p8XY2v7Z

eh said...

I have to believe that the average IQ in Palo Alto has risen a heck of a lot over the past 40 years...

Speaking of IQ, I think you have to be pretty stupid to believe that. Stanford University is in Palo Alto, and so Palo Alto has always been home to a great many rather smart people. White people, to be specific.

Head over to East Palo Alto, where Hispanics are displacing Blacks. There you'll find the average IQ has probably risen; you can do a survey and let us know if it's risen "a heck of a lot". I guess first you'd have to define "heck of a lot".

Top 400 Universities

The first one in Asia is at position 30. And that's in Japan.

eh said...

Another modern alchemist: lead, gold; sow's ear, silk purse. Daft broad.

eh said...

An interesting article to be sure. Thanks for finding and posting it Dennis.

Anonymous said...

Look closely at animal lab studies; even more closely at pet foods' contents; human dietary changes worldwide, and the SWD(standard western diet.)
Then consider the paleo diet principle--that species, including humans, have
not evolved as quickly as civilization has evolved. Humans have not evolved
to tolerate large amounts of grains; cats and dogs are evolved carnivores(few pet foods don't have grains, vegetables;) ruminants evolved to be grass eaters yet are fed grain supplements worldwide; Inuits evolved on mostly fat
diets as other still contemporary hunter/gatherers (Masai-proteins, fats), Kitivans(primarily carbohydrates plus fat(coconuts;) and lactose-intolerance in groups in some paleo populations. Cultivation of grains is relatively
recent 12,000+/- years in human/early human evolution of several millions of
years. I think grains are the common culprit in all instances. Are grains
not the most recent, most available worldwide food??

Dennis Mangan said...

Afraid your preaching to the choir here...

Anthony said...

Check whites in Minnesota. That should be close enough.

Severn said...

I'm involved in a discussion at a blog on The Atlantic, if anyone wants to join in. Topic is the aging workforce and the wonders of immigration.

Dennis Mangan said...

You're doing excellent work over there, Severn.

Rusty Mason said...

@Severn, I bumped your votes and added tuppence. Liberals are so stupid that I really have a hard time knowing where to start. It's like trying to talk to ADHD elementary school children.

Dennis Mangan said...

Yeah, reading that comment thread made me think that there's no hope of knocking any sense into the liberal brain.

Porter said...

Agreed. Severn administered a decorous thrashing...if but his interlocutors were sufficiently self aware to realize it. It was like watching Tom Cruise maneuver Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man. All they can mutter is It's the economy, definitely the economy.

I don't know who this economy guy is, but apparently he's more important than the mere flesh and blood people who built and sustain this civilization.

Severn said...

Thanks for your kind words. I'm mildly surprised that the admins allowed me say some of the things I said on The Atlantic website. Looks like the grip of the thought police is not yet absolute.

MC said...

Am I the only one who thinks that it's just cheaper food more widely available as the world gets wealthier? People like to eat...

Olave d'Estienne said...

I'd say you're not wrong, but I'd elaborate: cheap food is cheaper. Grain-based foods are cheaper.

Grass-feed beef isn't. Fish isn't. (Vegetables and fruits are mixed bag and I'm sure it varies place to place.) Keeping a paleo diet proved pretty labor-intensive and I gave it up pretty soon; I cheat with sandwiches and various sauces with some wheat. A general low-carb diet isn't too hard but grain-fed meats are a complicated subject; in any case I don't fully trust them.

Off the subject: If you don't like vegetables, please try them oven-roasted, in a casserole dish, with salt and a healthy oil (usually olive although I don't mind canola). Boiling vegetables is a waste of flavor and nutrients. Raw is fine but some people just don't like it. My wife makes the best vegetables I have ever eaten--not bragging--Brussels sprouts, peppers, broccoli, tomatoes, purple cauliflower. Easy to cook, easy cleanup, great with meat.

Anonymous said...

One things a lot of people dont know about is the roll of mycotoxins, or byproducts of mold. Molds have become far more vicious since Monsanto and others disrupted the mix of flora in the soil with unlimited use of Round Up and other chemicals. As pet foods are likely even more moldy than human foods, it is possible that higher mycotoxin levels are behind the fatter pets.

Anyway, google around for "mycotoxins" and decide for yourselves.

-Jostein