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The Coming Crash Is Simply the Normalization of a Mispriced Market

July 18, 2014

The correlation between the Fed's monetary heroin production and the stock market will break down as the market normalizes.

In the spirit of calling things what they are, longtime correspondent Harun I. explains that market crashes are simply distorted/mispriced economies attempting to normalize. Here's Harun's commentary:

Letís examine the term "crash." A crash is nothing more than the economy trying to normalize, however, everyone seems to think the environment created by bubbles (unpayable debt) is normal. This is truly fascinating because accepting unpayable debt as a norm means that prices are irrelevant, and since prices are irrelevant, there is no risk. But just because we think a thought does not make it a fact. Interestingly, each attempt at normalization requires exponentially greater amounts of expropriation of purchasing power.

Exactly, how does one grow one's way out of this? To clarify the term normalize, I mean that the economy shrinks to a level of real and sustainable supply and demand dynamics. Normalize does not mean "desirable" or "politically favorable."

Thank you, Harun, for describing the underlying dynamic of crashes. Just as forest fires normalize the forest's complex ecology by turning deadwood to nourishing ash and opening up the forest to new growth, in an analogous way crashes clear markets of financial deadwood and cartels that have blocked new growth.

I explain the analogy of the forest fire further in The Yellowstone Analogy and The Crisis of Neoliberal Capitalism (May 18, 2009).

We are living in a dying forest where fires have been suppressed at ever greater cost because the deadwood--the central bank and its cartel-cronies--are doing everything in their power to maintain their perquisites and power. But as Harun noted, the cost of each fire suppression (not just in eroded purchasing power but in systemic instability and the mispricing of risk) goes up dramatically.

Courtesy of mdbriefing.com, here is the Federal Reserve balance sheet--the main tool, along with Federal subsidies of politicized sectors such as home mortgages, of suppressing normalization of the economy and stock market:

While the Fed can push monetary heroin into the financial system, it can't force anyone to shove the debt-needle in their arm. One consequence is the velocity of money is absolutely cratering. If there is any measure of the economy's underlying financial health, it's this:


(thanks to correspondent Scott for calling my attention to this chart)

The correlation of the Fed's pushing of monetary heroin to the stock market has long been noted:

The question is: is correlation causation? In other words, will the market continue to loft higher regardless of any other inputs as long as the Fed is pushing some kind of monetary heroin into the financial sector?

As noted on the chart of the Fed balance sheet, the Fed's purchases of Treasury bonds and home mortgages are both rolling over (tapering), and so the Fed has been substituting another form of synthetic monetary heroin (reverse repos) to suppress the much-needed and long-delayed normalization of the economy and stock market.

Suppressing the next fire will take more than the reverse repo squirt-gun. Given the tremendous forces needing to be normalized, the correlation between the Fed's monetary heroin production and the stock market will break down as the market normalizes, much to the shock of all the financial deadwood that's been protected all these years.

To those who believe the correlation of Fed monetary heroin and the stock market is eternal and cannot possibly come undone, please consider this line from songwriter Jackson Browne: Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet.










Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy (Kindle, $9.95)(print, $17.76)
go to Kindle edition
Are you like me?
Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.

And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Test-drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $17.76

"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Laura Y.

Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers (25 minutes, YouTube)


HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER: Nothing on this site should be construed as investment advice or guidance. It is not intended as investment advice or guidance, nor is it offered as such.... (read more)

WHY EMAIL TO THIS SITE IS READ BUT MAY NOT BE ACKNOWLEDGED: Regrettably, I am so sorely pressed for time and energy that I am unable to respond to the vast majority of emails. Please know I read all emails, but I can only devote a very limited number of hours to this blog and all correspondence....



This Month's entries:

The Coming Crash Is Simply the Normalization of a Mispriced Market
July 18, 2014

Finding Shelter from the Storm Part 2
July 17, 2014

Why America's Healthcare (Sickcare) System Is Broken and Unfixable
July 16, 2014

Why We're Doomed: Interest and Debt
July 15, 2014

You Want a Solution? Try Not to Get Hurt When It Collapses, Then Start Over
July 14, 2014

A Reader Asks: How to Find Shelter from the Coming Storms?
July 11, 2014

Neofeudalism's Tax Donkeys (Yes, You) and the Battle for Control of Resources
July 10, 2014

Why Housing Will Crash Again--But For Different Reasons Than Last Time
July 9, 2014

How Recession-Proof Is Your Job Sector?
July 8, 2014

What's Lurking Beneath the Glossy Veneer of the Jobs Report?
July 7, 2014

What's Cooking at Our House: Stir-Fried Prawns with Black Beans
July 5, 2014

(In)Dependence Day 2014: Freedom from Pain, or Freedom from Dysfunction?
July 4, 2014

Is This a Self-Sustaining Recovery or As Good As It Gets?
July 3, 2014

The Inevitable Stock Market Reversal: The New Normal Is Just Another Bubble Awaiting a Pop
July 2, 2014

The Next Global Meltdown Is Baked In: Connecting the Dots Between Oil, Debt, Interest Rates and Risk
July 1, 2014


June 2014 entries

May 2014 entries

April 2014 entries

March 2014 entries

February 2014 entries

January 2014 entries


Archives

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Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms:


"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity."
(Douglas MacArthur)

"We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle)

"Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson)

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.)

"He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones)

"When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac)

"Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger)

"Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam)

"The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley)

"A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." CHS

"Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte)

"The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu)

"Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur)

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill)

"Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi)

"The grand essentials to happiness in this life are something to do, something to love and something to hope for." Joseph Addison (via Susan J.)

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." (Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, via Wayne H.)

"Passive absorption of marketing-dominated media is the primary activity on the plantation of the mind, and that of course is the goal of the colonial overlords: distraction, passivity, confusion, divide and conquer, and the old stand-by, financial desperation." (CHS)

"While we can always buy back into a trending market, we cannot go back in time and recover a profit lost to greed or complacency." (CHS)

"Whatever remains unconscious emerges later as fate." (Carl Jung)

"Any sufficiently advanced cartel's actions are indistinguishable from magic." (CHS)

"We have no leadership, just cronies and puppets." (CHS)

"The secret sauce in an investment isn't the upside, it's the viability between people who choose to share your dream in business or in life." (Eric P.)

"The ultimate goals of making money are balance and independence from money." (An Chu)

"Central planning perfects the power of threats to bypass the system's defenses." (CHS)

"Independence requires independence of thought, habit and action." (CHS)

"Certainty has another advantage: it's more persuasive than hedged hesitancy." (CHS)

"That which is cheap and abundant will be squandered until it is no longer cheap or abundant." (CHS) (3/5/2014)

"The prime directive of any bureaucracy is to eliminate all accountability." (CHS)

"In a world besotted with the artifice of consumerism, what matters is not what can be commodified and bought but what can't be commodified and bought." (CHS)

"The Mobile Creative credo: trust the network, not the corporation or the state." (CHS)

The Smith Market Uncertainty Principle: The more precisely we can determine the likelihood of a trend change, the less precisely we can determine the timing of the trend change--and vice versa. (June 20, 2014)

The Smith Uncertainty Principle: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)

"The truth at any cost lowers all other costs." (Robert David Steele)

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    live free
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    7 things to aspire to:

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