WTPA42 PHFO 021508
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 AM HST SAT AUG 02 201

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BROUGHT GENEVIEVE BACK TO LIFE AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A SECOND TIME IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. 
A 0719Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT A LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ WAS PRESENT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE 
BECOMING INVIGORATED. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS NOT ONLY THAT REINVIGORATED GENEVIEVE HAS DEVELOPED A MUCH 
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT ALSO IT APPEARS TO BE 
TAPPING INTO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE 
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN VIABLE IN 
THE NEAR-TERM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE 
FIX AGENCIES SHOW T NUMBERS OF 2.0 AT PHFO AND SAB...WHILE JTWC HAS 
A 1.5. IN ADDITION TO THESE DVORAK FIXES...THE 0719Z ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 30 KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. 
THEREFORE...THIS INITIAL ADVISORY WILL INDICATE AN INTENSITY OF 30 
KT...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 265 DEGREES / 09 KT.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT... DYNAMICAL AND 
CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 
2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE AIDS SHOW A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST 
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE 
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THESE 
AIDS THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST IS CLOSE 
TO THE GUIDANCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

MORE PROBLEMATIC IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE 
GENEVIEVE MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. ASSUMING IT IS A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...THE FORECAST MODELS...SUCH AS SHIPS...APPEAR TO 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS... 
SINCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ASSUMED TO BE LOW AND THE SSTS ARE 
GREATER THAN 27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT 
FORECAST INDICATES GENEVIEVE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY 
OR TONIGHT. AFTER THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS 
FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 11.9N 155.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.6N 157.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 11.2N 159.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 10.8N 162.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 11.0N 164.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 12.5N 169.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 14.5N 175.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 178.0E   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON