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-- Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), in an interview with David Brody, on the White House saying he was the most interesting Republican.
"This is reminiscent of Nevada, which has very similar statistics. Nevada is also the site of a spectacularly wrong polling error. In fall of 2010, surveys unanimously showed Republican Sharron Angle favored to unseat Democratic Senator (and Majority Leader) Harry Reid, by a median of four percentage points. Every data-based prognosticator, including me, expected Angle to win. Yet Reid won the election by 5 points, outperforming polls by 9 points. I regard this as the worst miss of Senate polling in the last three election cycles."
"Based on the extreme mobility of Alaska residents, I suggest a problem of potentially far larger impact. Like Nevada, telephone-based surveys in both states simply fail to capture a sample that is fully representative of voters. In other words, I suggest that ideologically diverse states with lots of recent arrivals are subject to inaccuracy."
Said Corbett: "I need the facts. I just can't have the opinion of one person as to whether an email was ever read or deleted. I don't know that to be the case."
-- Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), quoted by TPM, on the man who jumped the fence at the White House.
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"Coakley may be suffering from the souring national mood toward her party's leader, President Obama. Even in predominantly Democratic Massachusetts, more voters, 48 percent, disapprove of the president's job performance, than approve, 46 percent."
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Said Cruz: "Allowing Democratic senators, many of whom will likely have just been defeated at the polls, to confirm Holder's successor would be an abuse of power that should not be countenanced."
"While her efforts are focused on helping the GOP win control of the Senate in November, political strategists say Fiorina is doing all the right things to prep for a 2016 bid. And the message she's touting is a preview of the kind of role she could play, if she runs."
"Brady said in an interview that after months of weighing his options, he has decided to battle Ryan for the gavel. The move could force Ryan's hand on a 2016 presidential run."
"But people who have met in recent weeks with Jeb Bush in New York, Washington and Florida say they are far less certain that a campaign will ultimately materialize. Some described Bush as deeply engaged on issues beyond his usual focus on immigration and education, suggesting he was very much preparing for a national race. Others said it seemed like concerns over how a run would impact his family ultimately might keep Bush on the sidelines."
"It couldn't look more different today. If the Democrats assemble a firewall in defense of the Senate, the polling suggests North Carolina will be its bulwark. Ms. Hagan leads her Republican challenger, Thom Tillis, in nearly every survey over the last month by an average of more than three percentage points."
"But there's a big catch: To win Wolf's endorsement, Orman must first agree to caucus with the Senate GOP if he were to defeat Roberts in the general election."
"Nearly all of Romney's 2012 circle of advisers, finance people, and close aides remains intact. Many developed an extraordinary loyalty to Romney, who, in turn, has kept in close touch with them. Romney talks to some of them quite frequently in conversations that cover daily news, foreign and domestic policy, Hillary Clinton, the Republican field -- everything that might touch on a 2016 campaign."
Said one adviser: "Virtually the entire advisory group that surrounded Mitt in 2012 are eager for him to run, almost to a man and a woman."
A new Dittman Research survey finds Sullivan ahead by six points, 49% to 43%.
-- Dick Cheney, quoted by the Huffington Post, on why he thinks President Obama has been so wrong in response to the terrorist threat to the United States.
"FBI Director James Comey told reporters at the bureau's headquarters he would not reveal the man's name or nationality."
"Mr. Holder, the 82nd attorney general and the first African-American to serve in that position, had previously said he planned to leave office by the end of this year. Particularly in President Obama's second term, Mr. Holder has been the most prominent liberal voice of the administration, leading its push for same-sex marriage and voting rights."
The Hill reports that some Republicans "are warning President Obama against using a lame-duck session of Congress to push through Holder's replacement, even as the White House signals its intention to fill the post quickly."
September 26, 2014
Bonus Quote of the Day
"I think it is a compliment but I also think Republicans need to realize that if we're going to win national elections again the same old same old that has been losing will not win again."-- Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), in an interview with David Brody, on the White House saying he was the most interesting Republican.
Former Senator Accused of Shakedown
"Defense attorneys for a Chicago businessman accused of illegal lobbying want to bring out at his trial next week allegations that then-Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) offered to try to get U.S. military contracts for a business in return for a job as a $250,000-a-year financial consultant after he left office," the Chicago Sun Times reports.
Why is Alaska Polling So Bad?
Sam Wang notes that "in any given year, approximately 10% of Alaska's population has just arrived or is about to move away.""This is reminiscent of Nevada, which has very similar statistics. Nevada is also the site of a spectacularly wrong polling error. In fall of 2010, surveys unanimously showed Republican Sharron Angle favored to unseat Democratic Senator (and Majority Leader) Harry Reid, by a median of four percentage points. Every data-based prognosticator, including me, expected Angle to win. Yet Reid won the election by 5 points, outperforming polls by 9 points. I regard this as the worst miss of Senate polling in the last three election cycles."
"Based on the extreme mobility of Alaska residents, I suggest a problem of potentially far larger impact. Like Nevada, telephone-based surveys in both states simply fail to capture a sample that is fully representative of voters. In other words, I suggest that ideologically diverse states with lots of recent arrivals are subject to inaccuracy."
Kansas State Government Sells Sex Toys
"Kansas state government is on the verge of a financial windfall with the auctioning of thousands of sex toys seized by the revenue department for nonpayment of income, withholding and sales taxes," the Topeka Capital Journal reports.
Corbett Wants More Info on Porn Emails
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R) "said today that he has asked state Attorney General Kathleen Kane for more information regarding old email accounts of top current and former Pennsylvania officials, including members of his own administration, that contained sexual images and videos," the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.Said Corbett: "I need the facts. I just can't have the opinion of one person as to whether an email was ever read or deleted. I don't know that to be the case."
Cotton Holds Seven Point Lead in Arkansas
A new Rasmussen survey in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) with a solid lead over Sen. Mark Pryor (D) in the state's closely-watched U.S. Senate race, 47% to 40%.
Quote of the Day
"We should insist that ABC, NBC, CBS, they refer to the visitor according to the term that is politically correct: an undocumented White House visitor."-- Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), quoted by TPM, on the man who jumped the fence at the White House.
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On Wonk Wire
Some great clicks over at Wonk Wire:-
How the Beverage Industry Needs Boozers
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Capitalism's Role in Saving the Climate
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The Ray Rice Video for Wall Street
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Majority of Americans Favor Prayer in School
- Imagining Obamacare as Romneycare
Coakley Loses Lead in Massachusetts
A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker (R) leading Martha Coakley (D) in the race for governors, 40% to 38%."Coakley may be suffering from the souring national mood toward her party's leader, President Obama. Even in predominantly Democratic Massachusetts, more voters, 48 percent, disapprove of the president's job performance, than approve, 46 percent."
The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes
Wonk Wire looks at newly-released secret recordings that Michael Lewis dubs the "Ray Rice video for the financial sector."
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Cruz Will Fight Attempt to Replace Holder in Lame Duck
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) issued a political call to arms for conservatives, saying that outgoing senators should not vote on a new Attorney General nominee during the post-election lame-duck session, the Washington Post reports.Said Cruz: "Allowing Democratic senators, many of whom will likely have just been defeated at the polls, to confirm Holder's successor would be an abuse of power that should not be countenanced."
Fiorina Apparently Serious About Exploring Presidential Bid
Carly Fiorina (R) "is hitting the campaign trail in the lead-up to Election Day for her new super PAC, teaching activists and politicians how to talk to female voters--and building herself a grassroots base in a half-dozen electorally important states in the process," National Journal reports."While her efforts are focused on helping the GOP win control of the Senate in November, political strategists say Fiorina is doing all the right things to prep for a 2016 bid. And the message she's touting is a preview of the kind of role she could play, if she runs."
Brady Will Challenge Ryan for Gavel
Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) said that he "will seek the chairmanship of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, scrambling what was expected to be a smooth ascension to the post by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the 2012 GOP vice-presidential nominee and the party's architect of fiscal policy in the House," the Washington Post reports."Brady said in an interview that after months of weighing his options, he has decided to battle Ryan for the gavel. The move could force Ryan's hand on a 2016 presidential run."
Christie Ramps Up Travel Schedule
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) "has already spent more than a third of his second term outside of New Jersey, mostly stumping and raising money for fellow Republicans. As the midterm elections draw near, the prospective White House candidate is planning even more time on the road," the AP reports.
Bush Prepares for Possible Run
Politico: "Friends say Jeb Bush's father is eager for his son to run, even telling a visitor at a recent family gathering in Kennebunkport, Maine, that a presidential campaign and a return of the family dynasty to power was a near certainty. Wall Street financiers and Main Street CEOs eager for a centrist champion are longing for a Bush candidacy.""But people who have met in recent weeks with Jeb Bush in New York, Washington and Florida say they are far less certain that a campaign will ultimately materialize. Some described Bush as deeply engaged on issues beyond his usual focus on immigration and education, suggesting he was very much preparing for a national race. Others said it seemed like concerns over how a run would impact his family ultimately might keep Bush on the sidelines."
Democrats Surprising Strength in North Carolina
Nate Cohn: "This spring, North Carolina looked like the obvious sixth pickup state for the Republicans, just enough to take the Senate. The state is competitive only in presidential elections when turnout rises, especially among young and nonwhite voters. The Democratic incumbent, Kay Hagan, needed to compensate with big inroads among conservative white voters. But the polls showed her poorly positioned to do so. Her approval ratings were low; she was stuck in the low 40s among registered voters against Republican candidates who had yet to win their party's nomination.""It couldn't look more different today. If the Democrats assemble a firewall in defense of the Senate, the polling suggests North Carolina will be its bulwark. Ms. Hagan leads her Republican challenger, Thom Tillis, in nearly every survey over the last month by an average of more than three percentage points."
Wolf Mulls Endorsement of Orman
"Milton Wolf, the tea party candidate who battled Sen. Pat Roberts in a bitter Republican primary fight, is considering some political payback: Endorsing Kansas independent Greg Orman," Politico reports."But there's a big catch: To win Wolf's endorsement, Orman must first agree to caucus with the Senate GOP if he were to defeat Roberts in the general election."
450K Virginia Voters May Lack ID
About 450,000 registered voters in Virginia may lack the proper identification needed to cast a ballot in the November midterm elections, the Washington Post reports.
September 25, 2014
Mitt Romney is Weighing Another Presidential Bid
Byron York reports that despite his denials, Mitt Romney "is talking with advisers, consulting with his family, keeping a close eye on the emerging '16 Republican field, and carefully weighing the pluses and minuses of another run. That doesn't mean he will decide to do it, but it does mean that Mitt 2016 is a real possibility.""Nearly all of Romney's 2012 circle of advisers, finance people, and close aides remains intact. Many developed an extraordinary loyalty to Romney, who, in turn, has kept in close touch with them. Romney talks to some of them quite frequently in conversations that cover daily news, foreign and domestic policy, Hillary Clinton, the Republican field -- everything that might touch on a 2016 campaign."
Said one adviser: "Virtually the entire advisory group that surrounded Mitt in 2012 are eager for him to run, almost to a man and a woman."
Two Polls Find Begich Trailing
A new Rasmussen survey in Alaska finds Dan Sullivan (R) leading Sen. Mark Begich (D) in the U.S. Senate race by five points, 48% to 43%.A new Dittman Research survey finds Sullivan ahead by six points, 49% to 43%.
Quote of the Day
"I think it's deliberate. I think he has a world view, and increasingly what he's found is that it isn't consistent with reality."-- Dick Cheney, quoted by the Huffington Post, on why he thinks President Obama has been so wrong in response to the terrorist threat to the United States.
FBI Has Identified Terrorist Who Beheaded Journalists
"The U.S. believes it has identified the British-accented masked man in the videos depicting the beheadings of two American journalists and a British aid worker," the AP reports."FBI Director James Comey told reporters at the bureau's headquarters he would not reveal the man's name or nationality."
Colorado is a Perfect Purple
A Gallup poll finds that 42% of Coloradans in the first half of 2014 identified as or leaned Republican and 42% identified as or leaned Democratic.
Holder Will Resign as Attorney General
Attorney General Eric Holder "is resigning, the Justice Department said Thursday, but plans to remain in office until a successor is confirmed," the New York Times reports."Mr. Holder, the 82nd attorney general and the first African-American to serve in that position, had previously said he planned to leave office by the end of this year. Particularly in President Obama's second term, Mr. Holder has been the most prominent liberal voice of the administration, leading its push for same-sex marriage and voting rights."
The Hill reports that some Republicans "are warning President Obama against using a lame-duck session of Congress to push through Holder's replacement, even as the White House signals its intention to fill the post quickly."
Ugly Politics Stays on TV
Joe Klein: "It sounded to me, at first, like the Republicans had wised up in 2014. They were serving up smoked brisket, not red meat. There was a rationale for this: white women are likely to be the swing group in the North Carolina and Georgia elections. Women tend not to respond to rhetorical violence. Walker, the minister running for Congress, mentioned neither gay rights nor abortion. It was, I thought, grounds for optimism about the growing climate threat of political overheating. But after I saw the Perdue ad in Georgia, I realized that I--like the lovely folks who set up my road-trip meetings--was living in a community-oriented past, where speeches and rallies meant something. Nowadays, a candidate can be all smiles and more-in-sadness-than-in-anger on the stump, and run ads that are sicker than swamp gas on television, where it really counts."
