Why did Nate Silver decide to leave The New York Times and accept an offer from ESPN?
That’s the cause of great speculation in media circles at the moment. As has been noted elsewhere, there’s no question that The Times made a big pitch to keep him and that the effort to do so involved those at the highest levels, including Jill Abramson, the executive editor, along with people on the business side. And there’s no doubt that decision-makers are disappointed.
After all, his star power was significant. And his ability to drive traffic – especially among young, non-newspaper readers with his FiveThirtyEight blog – was unmatched, and probably will remain so.
I don’t have a great deal of inside information about how he made up his mind. But I did get to know Nate a bit. I visited with him at his second-floor desk a few times, interviewed him in person and by phone, mildly criticized one thing he did, and – notably — was mentioned very kindly in a Twitter message of his when I was under attack for that criticism.
This was true outside of the newsroom as well. In March, when I ran into him at the South by Southwest digital media convention in Austin, Tex., Nate was nice enough to stand around and chat at some length with a couple of young journalists I was with who admired him.
In short, I found him a thoroughly decent person, generous with his time and more likely than not to take the high road in personal interactions.
I also had many conversations about him with journalists in The Times’s newsroom.
So, without promising any huge amount of insight, I’ll make a few observations:
* I don’t think Nate Silver ever really fit into the Times culture and I think he was aware of that. He was, in a word, disruptive. Much like the Brad Pitt character in the movie “Moneyball” disrupted the old model of how to scout baseball players, Nate disrupted the traditional model of how to cover politics.
His entire probability-based way of looking at politics ran against the kind of political journalism that The Times specializes in: polling, the horse race, campaign coverage, analysis based on campaign-trail observation, and opinion writing, or “punditry,” as he put it, famously describing it as “fundamentally useless.” Of course, The Times is equally known for its in-depth and investigative reporting on politics.
His approach was to work against the narrative of politics – the “story” – and that made him always interesting to read. For me, both of these approaches have value and can live together just fine.
* A number of traditional and well-respected Times journalists disliked his work. The first time I wrote about him I suggested that print readers should have the same access to his writing that online readers were getting. I was surprised to quickly hear by e-mail from three high-profile Times political journalists, criticizing him and his work. They were also tough on me for seeming to endorse what he wrote, since I was suggesting that it get more visibility.
Many others, of course, in The Times’s newsroom did appreciate his work and the innovation (not to mention the traffic) that he brought, and liked his humility.
* The Times tried very hard to give him a lot of editorial help and a great platform. It bent over backward to do so, and this, too, disturbed some staff members. It was about to devote a significant number of staff positions to beefing up his presence into its own mini-department.
Nate Silver hasn’t talked publicly about his decision yet. I do know, from talking to a number of Times staff members over the past several weeks, that he was weighing the decision carefully and that it seemed, for a while, as if he would stay. This was far from a snap decision.
I suspect that this question of feeling at home in the Times culture was a relatively small factor. The deciding elements more likely were money, a broader variety of platforms and the opportunity to concentrate on sports and entertainment, as well as politics. It all added up to a better package – a better fit — at ESPN, and last week he told The Times of his plans.
Are some at The Times gratified by his departure? No doubt. But others are sorry to see him go. Count me among those.