Archive for May, 2014

Read more in Europe Decides Weekly, 30 May 2014

Top stories: 24-30 May 2014

  • EPP is biggest loser but wins European elections: The centre-right European People’s Party has emerged as the biggest group in the European Parliament following the European elections. According to the latest projections, the EPP will have 213 seats in the new parliament, losing around 60 seats. The Socialists & Democrats will have the second biggest group with 190 seats, a slight drop on its previous total. The big winners of the night were a range of parties on the Eurosceptic and anti-system right and left, pushing the number of non-attached members over 100. It seems likely that many of these groups will affiliate to existing groups in the Parliament. At 43.1%, the overall election turnout was slightly higher than at the last elections in 2009. Although Western European countries such as France, Germany and Denmark had a higher voting turnout than in 2009, Eastern countries like Hungary and Slovenia actually showed a downward trend. Slovakia’s turnout was set at an all-time low of 13%. Europe Decides results page; EurActiv; EUObserver; ALDE news; Irish Times; Times of Malta; Focus news; Chicago Tribune; Europolitics; Slate; European Public Affairs
  • Juncker in pole position for presidency after nervous week: EPP lead candidate Jean-Claude Juncker is the frontrunner to become President of the European Commission. A meeting of parliamentary leaders on Tuesday morning gave Juncker the opportunity to build majorities in the Parliament and European Council that would back his bid, but the European Council, meeting on Tuesday evening, did not discuss names and gave its President, Herman Van Rompuy, a mandate to find a candidate that could command a double majority. Post-summit comments by Angela Merkel that Juncker was not the only capable candidate sparked a wave of criticism in Germany for ignoring the results of the election. However, on Friday afternoon she confirmed that she would back Juncker’s presidential bid. EUObserver; Greens-EFA news; Bloomberg; GUE/NGL news; New Europe; S&D news; EurActiv; BBC News; Parliament Magazine; Europolitics; Wall Street Journal; S&D news; Wort; Europa RAPID; New York Times; Reuters; European Voice; Policy Network; Economist
  • Poland nominates Sikorski to replace Ashton: Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has put forward the country’s Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, to succeed Catherine Ashton as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Sikorski would be a “natural candidate”, said Tusk, adding that Poland has gained significant influence in foreign policy and so the appointment “would be within the scope of our interests”. Sikorski has been Poland’s Foreign Minister since 2007 and was a leading figure in the Ukraine crisis earlier this year. EurActiv

 

This blogpost, originally published at 12:55 on Friday 30 May, has been updated following remarks by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, later on Friday afternoon.

That was the week that was: an odd few days where the European People’s Party won the European Parliament elections, but was also the biggest loser; and where Socialists in the Parliament backed the EPP lead candidate for the European Commission presidency, only for some centre-right leaders to apply the brakes in the European Council.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the EPP lead candidate, is still the frontrunner and the only person formally in the running. His chances have been boosted tanks to comments by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, on Friday, that she is conducting negotiations on the basis that Juncker should be President.

However, it is clear that a number of heads of government would like to dump him in favour of someone else. The President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, has been charged with an exploratory mission to find the person – Juncker included – who can command the sufficient majority in the Parliament and European Council.

Meanwhile, five political groups in the European Parliament have backed Juncker to have a first go at building majorities in the same institutions – and if he fails, are likely to call for Martin Schulz, lead candidate of the second-placed Socialists, to have a go.

If those who want to block Juncker in the European Council succeed – and it is not a done deal yet for the former Luxembourg prime minister – an inter-institutional battle between the Parliament and European Council will be on the cards.

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????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Europe’s voters have backed a vast array of anti-EU and anti-establishment voters in the 2014 European Parliament elections, sending fewer MEPs from each of the main political groups back to Brussels and Strasbourg.

Despite being the biggest loser of the night in terms of seats, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) looks like emerging as the biggest party in the European Parliament with its support holding up in Germany and Poland among the larger member states, and good support across central and Eastern Europe. The Socialists are also set to lose a handful of seats, with the Liberals likely to lose around 20 seats according to the latest projections.

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Exit polls taken during yesterday’s European Parliament election in the Netherlands suggest that two parties – the progressive liberal Democrats 66 (D66) and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) – will emerge as the winners.

Geert WildersParty for Freedom (PVV), the populist right movement that had been set to perform well, is set to be the main loser, going from four to three seats, while the governing parties, the Liberal VVD and the Labour Party (PvdA), are likely to have seen their share of the vote fall while hanging on to their current number of seats.

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Read more in Europe Decides Weekly, 23 May 2014

Top stories: 17-23 May 2014

  • Polls open in European election: The polls have opened in the European Parliament elections, with voting taking place until Sunday. In the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, voting took place on Thursday, with the progressive liberal D66 party winning the election in the Netherlands according to an exit poll by Ipsos for the Dutch public broadcaster, NOS. The same exit poll suggested that the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) would lose a seat. In the UK, the UK Independence Party (Ukip) performed well according to the early results from local elections. The results of the European elections will be announced on Sunday, after voting has taken place in the rest of Europe. EUObserver; Europolitics; BBC News
  • EPP to remain largest party, says PollWatch: The final PollWatch 2014 prediction suggests that the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) will be the biggest party in the next European Parliament, with a 16-seat advantage over the Socialists and Democrats (S&D). The Liberal Group would be third, on 59 seats, and the radical left fourth, on 53 seats. If these latest predictions are confirmed by the actual results, Ukip and France’s National Front would become the fourth- and fifth-largest single parties in the Parliament respectively. Early analysis of the results suggests a grand coalition is on the cards, with neither a centre-left or centre-right coalition gathering sufficient support. Europe Decides; PollWatch 2014; EUObserver
  • Greece faces double election showdown: Candidates from Greece’s radical left party, Syriza, have performed well in the first round of local elections in Greece, reaching the second round of voting in Athens and in the Attica region, the country’s two most populous constituencies. New Democracy, the centre-right ruling party performed better in the rest of the country, while the far-right Golden Dawn party scored higher than 16% in Athens. The Syriza leader, Alexis Tsipras, said that the European poll will be a referendum on the Greek bail-out programme. EurActiv; EUObserver; European Voice; European Left; New Europe; Financial Times; Novinite; Reuters; Sofia Globe; Jewish Telegraph Agency

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It was hardly a surprise that the UK Independence Party did well in England’s local elections.

In an age of rampant political antipathy, their voters represent the three ‘Ds’, a trinity of problems for mainstream political parties: dissatisfied, disapproving, and distrustful.

However, the scale of Ukip’s performance defied expectations. Apart from in London, they gained seats across the country in these elections (with 161 local authorities holding polls this year).

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For detailed results per country and methodology, go to pollwatch2014.eu

The Group of the European People’s Party will be the largest formation in the new European Parliament according to the final PollWatch 2014 prediction.

With voting due to begin in less than 48 hours, PollWatch 2014, a project developed by VoteWatch Europe in partnership with Burson-Marsteller and Europe Decides, puts the centre-right group on 217 seats, taking just under 29 per cent of the seats in the new European Parliament.

The centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group, which led in our initial predictions in February and last week narrowed the gap to just three seats, is set to be 16 seats short of the EPP number. With 201 seats, the Socialists are set to gain only a handful of seats in comparison to their current numbers. This is the lowest PollWatch 2014 score for the S&D.

Many EPP member parties have consolidated their positions during the election campaign, especially in Poland, Hungary and Germany, while a number of socialist, social democratic and Labour parties have lost ground in the past few months, notably in France, Hungary, Poland and the UK.

It should be noted that while the gap between the EPP and S&D appears wide, there is still a 15% chance that the Socialists will be larger than the EPP, taking into account margins of error. Read more

On Friday 30 May the Public Affairs Council will host a teleconference looking at the results of the European Parliament elections.

The event will go beyond just a recap of the results to discuss practical implications for international public affairs professionals, including:

  • how this Parliament will be different;
  • which new ‘issue coalitions’ are likely to be formed;
  • what these coalitions’ views will be on business issues;
  • how public affairs professionals should work with the new MEPs; and
  • a look ahead to the new EU Commission this autumn.

The event takes place from 15:00 to 16:30 CET.

To join the event, with David Earnshaw, CEO of Burson-Marsteller Brussels speaking from Brussels, and Paul Adamson from Washington, DC, click here.

 

Vicky Claeys, Regional Director of the International Planned Parenthood Federation’s European Network, writes about the importance of the European elections for her organisation and its ‘I Decide’ campaign:

For many years, Europe has played a leading role in international discussions on development and human rights.

But now it is at a crossroads when it comes to sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR). On the eve of the European Parliament elections, it is unclear whether Europe will remain a progressive force on issues relating to sexuality education, gay rights and access to safe abortion, or whether it will be blown off course by a wave of conservative hostility towards people’s freedom to make their own life choices.

SRHR have come under attack during the outgoing legislature by vocal anti-choice minorities. But this parliament’s legacy should, be one of consistent support for SRHR. The European elections and the changes in the European Commission will be enormously important in setting the political tone for the next five years, and the newcomers must continue to play a strong leadership role on SRHR and gender equality. The likely influx of Eurosceptics and far-right MEPs makes the landscape challenging.

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????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????By this time next week, we may be starting to witness momentous change in the European Union: new people, a new policy direction, and a new paradigm in the way the institutions relate to each other. But where will these changes leave health policy?

The results of the broader policy discussions that affect the healthcare sector – and in particular the pharmacutical and medical devices industries – may take a while to become clear. The results of negotiations over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and reform of the Troika could take several years to become clear, although we can begin to predict the impact the new European Commission and European Parliament will have on them.

In some cases, this could mean more battles ahead: for example, Martin Schulz – the Party of European Socialists‘ candidate for the Commission presidency –  has stated his commitment to TTIP, but many Socialists are reluctant to accept many key elements of the potential agreement, such as the investor-state dispute settlement, and this opposition could cause headaches for European businesses.

In more detailed healthcare policy terms, there is perhaps more clarity, and also a bit more certainty following the developments of the last five years.

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