James Kirkup

David Cameron is planning a “gamechanging” promise on Europe and immigration, it’s said. The Times and the Sun report that the PM is thinking about demanding the right to stop some EU nationals entering the UK.

“David Cameron is considering demanding that Britain be given an “emergency brake” on the number of European jobseekers after promising MPs a “game-changing” new immigration policy,” according to the Times’ Francis Elliot. Tom Newton Dunn says in The Sun that the PM will make control over Britain's borders a "red line" in his renegotiation with the European Union. He’ll campaign for a British exit in a 2017 referendum if he doesn't get his way. Francis and Tom are on the money, as ever: speaking in Rochester this morning, Mr Cameron has said there is “more that we need to do” on immigration. More details soon, he suggests.

The context, of… Read More

No one won the 2010 general election. The Conservatives did not win because they did not get enough votes.  They did not get enough votes because too many people voted for other parties, especially the Labour Party.   The Labour Party did not win either.   The numbers: the Conservatives got 10.7 million votes, 36.1 per cent.  Labour got 8.6 million, 29 per cent.   No one won a majority.

Those statements of the blindingly obvious are worth reviewing when considering the 2015 general election.

That election, Conservatives are keen to point out, is a binary choice: either the Conservative Party or the Labour Party will lead the next government of Britain.

That being so, how does one side defeat the other?  Here’s another statement of the blindingly obvious: the best way to win is to take the other side’s votes.    Each vote that switches from LAB to CON (or vice versa) is worth twice… Read More

George Osborne's pension reforms take another step forward today with the publication of the Taxation of Pensions Bill. It proposals are proving remarkably popular so far. The changes will allow people with private pensions to draw down and spend that money freely without tax penalties. Mr Osborne has very successfully depicted this policy as a matter of freedom. Let people be free to spend their savings as they wish, he says. And who can object to freedom? It's difficult to quibble about government letting people do what they want, when they want. For those of us persuaded by JS Mill's Essay on Liberty, it's a pleasing – and all too rare – example of politicians believing that when people are free to do as they will, they will generally make the right decisions.

So successful has Mr Osborne been in his argument that the Labour Party,… Read More

A lot of Conservatives enjoyed Ukip's successes in the Heywood and Middleton by-election last week. That's understandable, because the Ukip near-miss in Lancashire scared the living daylights out of Labour – another 600 votes and Nigel Farage might have been dancing on Ed Miliband's political grave. And it's only natural for Conservatives to enjoy Labour difficulties hanging on to its traditional voter base in the working-class north.

But there's one question that has been largely overlooked here. Why aren't the Conservatives doing better in places like Heywood and Middleton? The Ukip surge there proves that northern working-class folk are willing to desert Labour, and willing to desert it for an anti-immigration, EU-hostile party with a southern public schoolboy for a leader. So if Ukip can win over the Labour base, why shouldn't the Tories?

It's not as fanciful a suggestion a… Read More

As Labour and the Conservatives ponder their respective setbacks at Ukip hands today, it’s worth pondering the similarities in the two big party’s approach to their new challenger.

In essence, both big parties think they can use the other to frighten voters out of backing Ukip.

From the Tories, the central message is that voting Ukip helps Labour: “Vote Farage, Get Miliband”.

From Labour, the message is that Ukip are “more Tory than the Tories”, a party full of former Conservatives with free-market plans for the NHS.

The results from Heywood and Clacton suggest that neither warning has been very effective thus far.

For both Conservative and Labour politicians, the differences between their two parties are stark and significant.  Each side almost instinctively recoils from the prospect of government by the other, so great are the differences they perceive between their two sides. People on both sides talk about 1992 and another clear ideological choice… Read More

I spent some time in Clacton-on-Sea last week, talking to Douglas Carswell, the Ukip by-election candidate, among others. You can see some video of that here.

In addition, here are some observations about the seat, the by-election and the rest.

1) Douglas Carswell walks the walk on immigration
Some people, including Danny Finkelstein (aka Lord Finkelstein, a Conservative peer) have questioned whether Mr Carswell is being fully honest with his constituents, challenging him to put the full range of his beliefs and policies before them. Those policies include sharp cuts in spending on health and a much bigger role for the private sector in public services. Mr Carswell is also much more economically liberal on immigration than many Ukippers, having publicly denounced what he calls “angry nativism”.

Well, on the basis of a morning’s canvassing, I can report that Mr Carswell is pretty open about his views on immigration. When voter… Read More

Photo: PA

Britain's war in Afghanistan is very nearly over. Combat operations are done and most troops will leave the country very soon. Thus, David Cameron has delivered on a promise he made about the Afghan war shortly after taking office in 2010.

Whatever else you can say about Afghanistan – and there are any number of questions about how peaceful, stable, and democratic a country Britain leaves behind – it should be noted that the Prime Minister has done what he said he would do over Afghanistan. In an age when people believe that politicians never deliver on their promises, that's worth pointing out.

Still, Afghanistan is only a part of the story of Britain and its military adventures – and part of the story of David Cameron's promises around defence.

The war in Afghanistan must be put… Read More

Even before David Cameron’s speech, the Conservatives had had a pretty good conference season. Despite several challenges of varying seriousness – a minor scandal, the Ukip threat, and polls that just aren’t budging – the party refused to panic. Instead, Tories have continued to put their faith in their leadership’s ability to deliver victory, and in the electorate’s willingness to see the election as a choice of David Cameron over Ed Miliband.

The Prime Minister’s speech today suggests that if that is how voters regard the election, the Tories' faith may be justified. It was a good speech, possibly as good a speech as Mr Cameron has given as Prime Minister. I wrote earlier today that conference speeches don’t matter much to voters, and I stand by that. But they do matter to parties, and this one has persuaded the Tories that their leader is better than… Read More

David Cameron delivering his conference speech (Photo: Getty Images)

The Prime Minister has just finished talking, and there is one major story – tax cuts for the middle classes. Some quick thoughts on what moving the threshold for 40p tax from £41,000 to £50,000 will do:
cut taxes for hundreds of thousands of people.

cost the Treasury around £5.5 billion a year.

delight Tories in marginal seats in the south east of England, MPs such as Nick de Bois in Enfield.

allow the Tories to say they are the party of aspiration, cutting the tax burden on people who do well for themselves and get ahead.

risk Labour attacks on the Tories as the party of the rich, especially in the north of England, where £41,000 is a lot of money, never mind £50,000.
Those last two points strike me a… Read More

Photo: Reuters

David Cameron speaks to the Conservative Party conference today, the last such speech before the general election in May. It's a truism of political reporting that any leader addressing his party conference must give the speech of his life, that this time it really matters, that it's make or break, an hour or so of oratory that will determine the fate of the nation, change the course of history.

This is, of course, nonsense. Conference speeches don't really matter all that much. But we say they do partly because they do matter to the people we spend a lot of time with (politicians and others who are professionally interested in politics) and partly because, well, if conference speeches aren't all that important then why are we spending so much time, money and effort covering them… Read More