Archive for March, 2014

François Hollande, President of the French Republic, Angela Merkel, German Federal Chancellor, Enda Kenny, Irish Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, Greek Prime Minister and President in office of the Council of the EU, and Pedro Passos Coelho, Portuguese Prime Minister (from left to right)The President of France, François Hollande (pictured), has reshuffled the government after a crushing defeat for the Socialists in local elections.

Meanwhile there have been changes in two other governments over the past few days, with 34-year old Taavi Rõivas becoming Estonia’s Prime Minister and Malta’s premier, Joseph Muscat, reshuffling his team and proposing Malta’s nominee to the next European Commission.

Jens Stoltenberg, Norway’s former prime minister, was named as the next Nato secretary-general, and candidate selections for May’s European Parliament elections continued.

Read our lists of European Parliament candidates

Here’s our overview of the latest news in Europe’s year of change:

François Hollande has reacted to the Socialists’ defeat in the second round of local elections by, as expected, dismissing the government headed by Jean-Marc Ayrault.

Ayrault’s successor is Manuel Valls, the Barcelona-born current interior minister. Much as with former president Nicolas Sarkozy in the same role, Valls’ hardline approach to law and order has proved popular with the electorate. However, his position on the right of the Socialist Party means he is treated with suspicion by some of his comrades.

A full government reshuffle is expected, with outgoing ministers – expected to include Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister – likely to be contenders for France’s nomination to the European Commission.

In the elections themselves, the Socialists lost more than 150 towns to the centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), while the far-right National Front won control 11 town halls. Turnout, at 62%, was the lowest ever for a French local election.

The one bright spot for the Socialists was the victory of Anne Hidalgo in Paris. She becomes the capital’s first female mayor.

Meanwhile in Malta the Prime Minister, Labour‘s Joseph Muscat, carried out a reshuffle prompted by the swearing-in this week of Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca as the country’s first female president.

As part of the changes, Karmenu Vella, the tourism minister, was named as the country’s proposed nominee to the next European Commission. Vella joins three other men who are (near-)certain nominees to the next Commission: Maroš Šefčovič, the Slovakian European Commission Vice-President for Inter-Institutional Relations and Administration; Neven Mimica, the Croatian European Commissioner for Consumer Protection; and Andrus Ansip, the former Estonian prime minister.

Read our lists of potential nominees to the European Commission

Ansip’s successor in Estonia was also confirmed in his post last week: at 34 years old, Taavi Rõivas becomes the EU’s youngest head of government, leading a Liberal-Social Democratic coalition.

In Slovakia, the Prime Minister, Robert Fico, was defeated by 60% to 40% in the run-off for the (largely ceremonial) post of President. Millionaire businessman Andrej Kiska won the post in a result thought to reflect fears that the Social Democrats would take too much power.

On Friday the first of the ‘top jobs’ in Europe’s year of change was given to Jens Stoltenberg, the former Norwegian prime minister. He will succeed Anders Fogh Rasmussen as Secretary-General of Nato on 1 October. 

Stoltenberg, aged 55, was Norway’s PM from 2000 to 2001 and again from 2005 to 2013. He is currently leader of the Norwegian Labour PartyIn his time as prime minister he increased Norway’s defence spending and provided Norwegian forces for many Nato missions. His first key test will be to manage the frosty relations between the West and Russia over Ukraine.

The appointment of Stoltenberg makes the 2014 ‘jigsaw’ a little less complicated, in that Norway’s position outside the EU means that the Nato choice will not normally affect the balance of nationalities needed for the top jobs in Europe.

However, some of those who missed out – such as Belgium’s defence minister, Pieter De Crem, and Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski – may be more focused on other key roles now that the Nato job has gone elsewhere.

The weekend also saw another newspaper article that suggests the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, would favour the Danish premier, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, for the Commission presidency, should the Left top May’s polls.

Candidate selections for the European Parliament elections continued this weekend. Some of the highlights come from:

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Austria: Angelika Werthmann MEP, an independent sitting in the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) Group, was named as second on the list for the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), the Eurosceptic populist party founded by Jörg Haider. Werthmann, who follows Haider’s daughter, Ulrike Haider-Quercia, on the list, is likely to be expelled from the ALDE Group this week,

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Belgium: Both the Flemish Liberals (OpenVLD) and their Francophone counterparts, the Reformist Movement (MR), confirmed their lists, headed by ALDE Party lead candidate Guy Verhofstadt and former European commissioner Louis Michel respectively.

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Croatia: The Partnership of the Croatian Centre named the candidates on its four-party list, including former prime minister Jadranka Kosor. The Croatian Labourists, who sit in the radical left GUE/NGL Group, also named their list, headed by Nikola Vuljanić MEP.

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Cyprus: Democratic Rally, affiliated to the European People’s Party, confirmed its list of candidates. A professor at the University of Cyprus, Stavros Zenios, tops the list.

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Estonia: The Social Democrats named a list that includes current MEP Ivari Padar and former member Marianne Mikko. Meanwhile the Reform Party (ALDE Party) named Andrus Ansip on the party’s list. The former prime minister is expected to be the country’s next nominee to the European Commission.

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Greece: The Olive Tree alliance – a centre-left grouping including the Socialists, PASOK, confirmed their candidates. The list includes one MEP (Sylvana Rapti). 35% of the candidates are women and 30% are under 40 years old.

 

Read more in Europe Decides Weekly, 28 March 2014

Top stories: 22-28 March 2014

  • France’s far-right make gains as voters punish Hollande: France’s National Front scored well in France’s municipal elections, even winning one mayoralty the first round of voting. The Socialist Party of France’s President, François Hollande, saw its share of the vote fall and is set to lose control of some major towns in Sunday’s second round. Despite the Socialists’ defeat, the government will stick to its planned economic reforms and spending cuts. However, Hollande is expected to reshuffle his team – including possibly replacing the Prime Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault – in the coming weeks. New Europe; Reuters; New York Times; Telegraph; Guardian; Wall Street Journal; BBC News; Financial Times; Economist; ABC News; Policy Network; Digital Journal; Le Figaro
  • Maastricht to host First European Presidential Debate on 28 April: The ‘First European Presidential Debate’ will take place in Maastricht on Monday 28 April, featuring the lead candidates of the main European parties. The event will be hosted by the City of Maastricht, the University of Maastricht and the European Youth Forum. Euronews will broadcast the event live. Burson-Marsteller/Europe Decides is a partner of the project, organising an event in Brussels to coincide with the debate. European Youth Forum
  • Wilders’ party loses members after remarks about Moroccans: Several leading politicians from the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) have quit the party following an incident in which the party leader, Geert Wilders, asked supporters at a post-local election event “Do you want more or fewer Moroccans in this city and this country?”, with supporters responding “Fewer! Fewer! Fewer!” Laurence Stassen MEP, the PVV delegation leader in the European Parliament, was one of the most high-profile members to quit. EurActiv; Reuters; DutchNews

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“Fewer! Fewer! Fewer!”

Supporters of Geert WildersParty for Freedom (PVV) made their views clear when, as the Dutch local election results filtered through last Wednesday, their leader asked them whether they want more or fewer Moroccans in the country.

“Good, we’ll arrange that”, promised Wilders. But what the PVV leader has actually seen since is fewer of his own elected representatives willing to stand by him following this controversial episode.

Laurence Stassen, the PVV delegation leader in the European Parliament, announced on Friday that she is leaving the party and will see out her term as an independent MEP (she is also giving up her seat in the provincial council of Limburg). Lucas Hartong takes over from Stassen as delegation leader but his tenure will be short-lived, as he will not be a candidate in the European Parliament election in May.

Other PVV politicians in the Netherlands are quitting the Wilders camp one by one. Daniël ter Haar, a provincial council member, recently joined the growing band of senior party members who disowned Wilders’ rabble-rousing. Meanwhile – as predicted by the PVV leader – the police have received many official complaints about use of discriminatory language.

The turbulence in the PVV has overshadowed the success in the municipal elections for many local parties (notably in Rotterdam) as well as the left-wing Socialist Party (SP), and the progressive liberal Democrats 66 (D66) party.

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As national deadlines for the submission of lists of candidates approach, parties have been continuing to select their prospective MEPs.

Here’s our overview of the latest news – click the flag to see full lists of European Parliament election candidates for that country:

Read our lists of European Parliament candidates
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Belgium: The Francophone Socialist Party (PS) named former federal minister and former Minister-President of Belgium’s French-speaking Community Marie Arena as the head of its list. Marc Tarabella MEP is second, while another MEP – Véronique De Keyser – will not stand. She complained that she had been treated “like a dog” in being offered a lowly position on the list.

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Bulgaria: Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), a party affiliated to the European People’s Party (EPP), added three MEPs – Andrei Kovachev, Maria Gabriel and Vladimir Uruchev – to a list headed by former minister Tomislav Donchev.

Meanwhile, the list for the Reformist Bloc – a centre-right group containing five parties, including two linked to the EPP – will be led by former European commissioner Meglena Kuneva. Svetoslav Malinov MEP is second on the list.

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Croatia: The centre-left list headed by the Social Democrats (SDP) was published, with Commissioner Neven Mimica top of the list. MEP and former foreign minister Tonino Picula was placed only fifth.

The centre-right pact was also agreed, featuring the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ – an EPP member) and the Croatian Party of Rights dr. Ante Starčević (HSP-AS), whose MEP, Ruža Tomašić, sits in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group. Tomašić is sixth on the list, while the names for the HDZ and other parties are yet to be confirmed.

Croatian Sustainable Development (ORaH) – a green party currently with no MEPs – also selected its candidates.

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Read more in Europe Decides Weekly, 21 March 2014

Top stories: 15-21 March 2014

  • Socialists and EPP ‘neck-and-neck’ in race to be biggest group: The centre-right EPP Group and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) Group are in a statistical dead heat to be the European Parliament’s biggest group after May’s elections, according to the latest PollWatch 2014 predictions. The new forecast puts the Socialists on 214 seats and the EPP on 213. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) Group is set to take third place after having previously been slated to come fourth, behind the radical left. Europe Decides; EurActiv; European Voice
  • Lewandowski to stand in Parliament election: The Commissioner for Financial Programming and Budgets, Janusz Lewandowksi, will run in the European election in Poland for the centre-right Civic Platform (PO). He will take five weeks’ unpaid leave to campaign. Other PO lead candidates include former finance minister Jacek Rostowski – a potential commissioner, and current European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group MEP Michał Kamiński. Europe Decides; European Voice
  • Schulz receives open letter calling for him to stand down: Representatives of five German parties have sent a letter to the President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, calling on him to stand down given his role as the Party of European Socialists (PES) lead candidate in the European elections. Die Welt; Liberale; FDP file

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Donald Tusk at the EC

(left to right) Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk; former European Parliament president and election candidate Jerzy Buzek, the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso; and commissioner and election candidate Janusz Lewandowski

Commissioners, former commissioners, ministers, MEPs and sportspeople: Poland’s centre-right Civic Platform (PO) has an eclectic slate for the European election.

The list of candidates is due to be finalised this weekend (22 March), but the party – which leads the government in Warsaw – published the names of its lead candidates last week, with some surprising names.

By 15 April the PO lists – and those of other Polish parties, such as the centre-left Democratic Left Alliance and the centrist Europa Plus – Your Movement, which have already named their candidates – will have to be lodged with the election authorities.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Poland

Although behind the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party in the opinion polls, support for PO seems to be growing again, partly in reaction to the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. The centre-right party – led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk (pictured above) – has put forward a set of candidates carefully designed to capitalise on this growth in support.

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With the European Parliament election campaign hotting up across the continent, we take a snapshot of the situation in Croatia, Hungary and Slovenia.

Blogpost compiled with the support of Chapter 4, Burson-Marsteller’s exclusive affiliate in South East and Central and Eastern Europe. 

 

Plenary session week 3 2014 - Hercule III programme and protection of the European Union's financial interests

The European election in Croatia will be a crucial examination for the ruling left-wing coalition, led by the Social Democrats (SDP).

The government has just entered the second half of its mandate and has faced several scandals, often clumsily handled. The SDP has suffered its worst opinion poll scores in several years and there have been internal clashes.

While the election will be a test of credibility for the ruling party, it is also a chance to test the strength of the main opponent, the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ – a member of the European People’s Party), which is still dogged by memories of corruption scandals from its long period in power.

Given the troubles for the two main parties, an opportunity opens for several other groups to position themselves. Dozens of new parties that have been founded in the last twelve months will face their first test.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Croatia

The SDP and HDZ are both running in the election at the head of a coalition (the HDZ is leading the right-wing Union for Croatia, whose list includes Ruža Tomašić (pictured), an MEP from the European Conservatives and Reformists Group).

Last year’s inaugural European election in Croatia saw a scramble for positions on the lists, with the posts in Brussels being seen as prestigious and lucrative – a common statute for MEPs means that Croatian members are paid vastly more than parliamentarians in Zagreb. This year will see a repeat.

However, one Social Democrat who is likely to stand in the election will almost certainly not take up his seat: the current Commissioner for Consumer Protection, Neven Mimica, is likely to be Croatia’s nominee to the European Commission for the second time.

See our list of potential nominees to the European Commission from Croatia

On 19 March Croatian president Ivo Josipović announced that the elections will be held on 25 May, expressing his wish that all parties talk about the possibilities Croatia has as an EU member.

Viktor Orbán, on the left, and José Manuel Barroso

Few people in Hungary are discussing the European elections, with a general election due to take place in less than three weeks’ time.

Indeed, the European poll is part of an ‘election sandwich’, with municipal elections due to take place in the autumn.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Hungary

At the moment, the centre-right government of Viktor Orbán (pictured) is set to win a big majority in the new Hungarian parliament. His party, Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union, is set to win half of all votes, with the centre-left Unity coalition, featuring the Socialists, at around 25%. The extreme-right Jobbik – Movement for a Better Hungary party is currently set to win around 15% of the vote.

The new electoral system will see one round of voting, a parliament that is almost halved in size, and a greater emphasis on constituency seats rather than party lists. There is a threshold for entry into parliament of five per cent for single parties; more for combined lists.

After the national elections, the parties will start to focus on Europe; indeed, Fidesz is due to publish its list of candidates only after the election. One potentially interesting development is the high score for Jobbik in the opinion polls, especially given that European Parliament elections see a surge in support for fringe parties.

Hungary’s nominee to the European Commission is likely to come from Fidesz if the party, as expected, wins the national election. The likely nominee is also set to head the party’s list for the European Parliament election.

See our list of potential nominees to the European Commission from Hungary

Names being mooted are Enikő Győri, the Europe minister and face of the country’s EU presidency in 2011. She has excellent European and international credentials, speaks many languages, and would probably pass the hearing in the Parliament without much difficulty.

Other contenders include the justice minister, Tibor Navracsics, and current MEP József Szájer, who has been in the Parliament since Hungary joined the EU and has worked mainly on constitutional issues.

Janez Potocnik at the EU Hope ConferenceWith just over three months to go to the elections, the political situation in Slovenia is beginning to clarify a little.

On the centre-right, New Slovenia (NSi) and the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) – both affiliated to the EPP – will run a common list, with Alojz Peterle MEP among the candidates. As for the other EPP-affiliated party, the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), Romana Jordan is set to stand down, but Milan Zver is likely to run again.

The Social Democrats will probably field Tanja Fajon and Mojca Kleva Kekuš – both currently MEPs. But there is also speculation that the party’s President, Igor Lukšič will lead the list. The order of these candidates could be crucial with Positive Slovenia (PS), a party established since the last European election but which now leads the government, likely to compete strongly for seats.

See our list of European Parliament election candidates in Slovenia

PS will join the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) Group, where Jelko Kacin MEP of Liberal Democracy of Slovenia (LDS) and Ivo Vajgl MEP of Zares – Social Liberals currently sit. However, due to the very low public support for LDS Kacin may lose his seat, while Vajgl is now backed by the Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) – a centrist party focused on rights of older people.

As for the nominee to the European Commission, Janez Potočnik (pictured), who will not stand in the election, will try to get the government’s support but may face a battle to stay on for a third term (even if it would help secure a more important portfolio for the country’s nominee). In Slovenia, unlike in many other countries, the government has to approve the nomination, not just the prime minister.

See our list of potential nominees to the European Commission from Slovenia

On Wednesday 2 April Burson-Marsteller will welcome Alec Ross, a former advisor to Hillary Clinton, for its latest ‘After Hours’ event.

‘Europe Decides: digital politics in the 21st century’ will look at the role of social media in politics and policy-making with one of the United States’ leading experts on innovation.

Alec Ross was a senior advisor on this issue to Hillary Clinton during her time as US Secretary of State (2009-2013). One of his goals was to look at how social media could be used to advance America’s diplomatic interests.

Alec will give a talk on his experiences and the role of digital politics in Europe’s year of change and beyond.

Please note that registration for this event is now closed.

 

Alec Ross

 

Updated post based on corrections to forecast in Cyprus

For detailed results per country and methodology, go to pollwatch2014.eu
The centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group and the centre-right Group of the European People’s Party are neck-and-neck in the race to become the biggest political group in the next European Parliament, according to the latest PollWatch 2014 prediction. 

The latest forecast puts the Socialists on 214 seats – an increase on the previous prediction – but puts the EPP on 213 seats, its best score of the three predictions made so far by PollWatch 2014, a project developed by VoteWatch Europe in partnership with Burson-Marsteller and Europe Decides.

With just one seat between the S&D and EPP, it is a statistical dead heat between the two groups.

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With their support falling to low levels, Europe’s mainstream parties are pulling out all the stops to freshen their image and reach voters.

The European People’s Party (EPP) Election Congress in Dublin clearly recognised digital campaigning as being at the heart of this year’s European elections, and contributed to a significant increase in interest in and debate about the polls. Over three days (5-7 March), more than 16,000 tweets (includes retweets) were posted about the EPP Congress. At the event itself, social media workshops were given by Twitter, Facebook and Google.

So it was perhaps surprising that Twitter-less Jean-Claude Juncker was chosen as the figurehead of the campaign. Juncker’s previous digital campaigning experience seemed to centre on fighting a losing battle to suppress spoof accounts but by the end of the Congress he had – as if by magic – a verified Twitter account with more than 5,000 followers, scooping up the followers of the @EPPDublin Congress account.

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