WTPA42 PHFO 230245
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012006
500 PM HST TUE AUG 22 2006

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY OF IOKE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE...WHICH HAD
DISAPPEARED FOR A WHILE...HAS REMAINED DIMLY VISIBLE FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AT 02Z...THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE EYEWALL WAS OVER
JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE 00Z CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS A
SLIGHT DECREASE TO 6M/S SHEAR FROM 241 DEGREES SO WE WILL BE
KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT T5.0 OR 90 KT.
 
IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BUT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS
SLOWED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN SLOWING AND CURVING TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF WEST. WE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...
THEN SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWED THE
FORWARD MOTION TO STICK CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IOKE OVER 28 DEGREE C WATER THROUGH 120
HOURS. THE MODEST SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY
AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS. WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY
UNCHANGED THROUGH 96 HOURS...THEN STARTED A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 16.6N 170.2W    90 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.4N 171.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 172.1W    90 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 173.2W    90 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.7N 174.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 176.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 20.6N 177.3W    90 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 20.4N 178.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON