PERHAPS, if the gubernatorial election were to be held today, Kogi State governor, Prince Abubakar Audu, elected under the All Peoples Party (APP), will not contest. Reason? Section 182(1)(b) of the 1999 Constitution bars him and his counterparts in Ondo, Taraba and Yobe States, Chief Segun Osoba, Revd. Jolly Tanko Nyame and Alhaji Abba Buka Ibrahim respectively, from a third term bid, having served twice as governors.

But the elections are still many months away and Audu and the others are hoping that the Supreme Court and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will find them eligible for the 2003 polls.

Section 182(1)(b) of the 1999 Constitution states that: "No person shall be qualified for an election into the office of governor of a state if (b) he has been elected to such office in any two previous elections."

Audu first served as governor in 1992 and, unless the Constitution is amended or the courts find him eligible, he won't contest the 2003 elections. The governor knows this and his opponents know it, too. But still they have to contend with the man who is variously described as the 'Prince of Projects', 'Lion of the Niger', and 'Prince of Change'. The man who was rated second best governor by the National Media Town team, despite the acclaimed poverty in the state; the man who personifies Kogi politics and demonstrates it.

Audu is admitted as the strongest singular influence in Kogi politics today either positively or negatively. In apparent reference to the staunch opposition that he represents in Kogi politics, a People's Democratic Party (PDP) gubernatorial aspirant, Prince Abdullahi Adejo Obaje, a fellow Igala man like Audu said: "The APP is not in existence in Kogi State; what is in existence is Governor Abubakar Audu. As soon as he finishes his term, that will be the end of APP in Kogi."

One of Audu's critics, the Managing Director of the Daily Times of Nigeria Plc, Dr. Onukaba Adinoyi-Ojo, an Ebira son, noted in an acerbic speech delivered at the Pan-Ebira Conference in April 1, 2002 that the ills and underdevelopment of the state could be traced to the "gross ineptitude of a leadership, which is totally out of touch with the feelings of the people it claims to be protecting."

Referring to the perceived ethnic cleavage, which is keeping Audu in power, and whose interests he claims to be protecting, Ojo added: "Fight Audu, not the Igalas. Audu is an embarrassment to them. They wish they had a better ambassador."

If the courts find Audu eligible for a third term as governor, the Igalas might find him a worthy ambassador in spite of Ojo' vituperations.

While the Ebiras and the Okuns (Yoruba speaking Kogi) complain of marginalisation, the Igalas are thankful to Audu for the democracy dividends in their senatorial area. The Prince Abubakar Audu University in Anyagba and the Prince Abubakar Audu Housing Estate in Lokoja are two landmark projects, which the Igalas will be thankful to Audu. It was obvious to the Igalas that the creation of more local governments was to consolidate on their hegemony, to make it further difficult for a power shift to the other senatorial zones.

The Igala people see Audu as their champion who has come to redress the historical wrong perpetuated in the marginalisation of the Igala despite their numerical superiority in the state. Though Audu claimed that the controversial distribution of councils represented the desire of Kogi people, he agreed that it was his government effort at equity - which turned violent - to favour the Igala who were short charged when the state was created in 1991.

The governor's critics admit his influence in Kogi politics not essentially due to his popularity or political strategy, but to opportunity. As the candidate of the National Republican Convention (NRC) in the 1991 election, Audu was given an outsider's chance in the gubernatorial race.

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) was in confusion after conflicts arose in the choice of Steven Achema over Chief Silas Daniyan, which went against the spirit of an agreement, to let an Igala man have the first shot at the first gubernatorial election in the new state. On election date, Audu found himself with protest votes from Okun voters who refused to vote for Achema, an Igala man because Daniyan, an Okun man, was dropped.

In 1999, a similar scenario played itself out again when the People's Democratic Party (PDP) was caught in a crisis it could not resolve before the elections. The party could not settle on a candidate among Steve Achema, Ahmed Tijani Ahmed and others. A compromise candidate in an Okun man, Steve Oloruntoba, was presented. At the election, the Ebiras voted against Oloruntoba. And in spite of the strong presence of the PDP, they lost out.

Again Audu benefited from the confusion in his enemy's camp. Today, not only has the power of incumbency entrenched him in Kogi politics; it appears that if he contests again, he will win.

The Ebiras and Okuns are far away from resolving their differences. And the PDP looks set with its over 19 gubernatorial aspirants to recreate the same scenario that saw them fumble against the APP and Audu in the last elections.

In 1991 the Igalas occupied the Lugard House, Kogi's seat of power. In 1999, they went back there. And that looks like a pattern that will subsist in the state's politics for two reasons. The Igalas are in majority. Secondly, the Ebiras and the Okuns, the two other major tribes prefer to vote against each other's interests. And this favours the interest of the Igalas, as Audu's rise to power in 1991 and 1999 is traced to the protest votes he got from the Ebiras and Okuns.

Presently, there is no arrangement that guarantees the shift of power among the three senatorial zones: the East (Igala), West (Okun) and Central (Ebira). The quest for power is carried out on the simple basis of numbers and the Igalas have that. The Igalas, with nine local governments (before Audu's controversial council creation), accounted for 54.52 per cent of the votes cast for the gubernatorial election of 1999, according to INEC figures. Meanwhile, the Ebira and Okun with a combined 12 local councils accounted for 45.48 per cent.

To upstage Audu and therefore the Igala/Bassa dominance of Kogi politics will depend on an alliance between the Ebira and the Okun in the 2003 polls. Both admit to that need but agree to its difficulty.

Problems that arise for this alliance start from the simple fact that there is no precedent of a workable Ebira/Okun alliance. Observers believe that if both zones choose to ignore militating historical factors and elect to exploit the benefit of a unity of purpose and a common candidate, that will deliver the state from the "grip" of Audu. Then they might stand a fair chance of breaking the Igala "stranglehold".

The PDP is said to be the dominant party in Kogi especially in the Okun and the Ebira areas while the APP has pockets of support in the Igala area. Here one calculation arises. If Audu decides to throw his weight behind his deputy, Patrick Adaba, an Ebira APP man, will the Okun go it alone or will they team up to avoid the Igalas from supporting Senator Alex Kadiri, an Igala PDP member?

Presently, the three senatorial zones boast of aspirants. As at the last count, there were about 33, but the front runners include Prince Abdullahi Adejo Obaje (PDP, Kogi East), the son of the Attah of Igala, Aliyu Obaje, Senator A.T. Ahmed (Central) and Prince Olusola Akanmode (PDP). Others are Hon Muazu Etudaiye, Col. Yusuf Ahmed, Chief Momoh Yusuf Obaro, Chief Paul Achimugu, Alhaji Idris Ibrahim, Alhaji Ahmadu Sheidu, Chief Isa Edime and Revd. Raphael Osanaiye.

The feasibility of an alliance, worries all those who want the power shift from Kogi East (Igala) to either Kogi Central (Ebira) or Kogi West (Okun). The Okuns and the Ebiras, though neighbours, have never considered themselves close and have enjoyed a mutual suspicion. The Ebiras have a small landmass but are in the majority and pride themselves as generating about 76 per cent of the revenue of the state. For this reason, they regard themselves as seniors in any partnership.

The Okuns list out how they have been marginalised and particularly their prominent citizens like Silas Daniyan, a former Minister of National Planning and Chief Olayinka Simayan, former Ambassador to Austria and Republic of Benin (Dahomey), who could push their case to have a first shot at the government house.

"This hard line posture cannot solve anything for us," said Alhaji Shehu Ahmed, an Ebira community leader in Lagos. "Unless leaders of the two communities agree to resolve their differences for the common good of the state, we will always have this situation of the wrong leaders and the dominance of the Igalas," he added.

In various tribal associations, the point is made that what any section needs is the minimum agreement to work together and they will upstage Audu. At the Pan-Ebira Conference, Adinoyi-Ojo made the same point; and at the Okun Development Association (ODA) meeting, nearly all the speakers inferred the point.

If they fail in building that political bridge then, the Igalas, not necessarily Audu will hold sway.

Corruption and local council crisis

If Audu has to run for office again, he knows the Igalas are not his problem. Part of his problem will be how he deals with the issue of massive fraud and corruption, which looks potent enough to drag him before the Anti-Corruption Commission.

"Nothing has reportedly unsettled Audu like the stories linking him to massive misuse of state funds, acquisition of homes and choice property in London and the United States of America," said an aide.

On the Sunday the story was first reported, Audu's convoy was set to drive out for an important state engagement. The governor was yet to come down when an aide rushed into his bedroom with a copy of the newspapers. Audu, it was said, was compelled to sit down when the magnitude of the information hit him. The more he read, the more worried he became and he forgot that his convoy with his officials were waiting downstairs. The scheduled event was eventually cancelled.

As the questions were asked about Audu stupendous wealth, he referred the media to the Code of Conduct Bureau where he said: "I have declared my assets and it is before the bureau."

But soon everyone, including Audu's friend, President Olusegun Obasanjo, wanted to know how he bought a house on Bishop's Avenue, London valued at $4 million, and a $1.7 million house in Patomac, Maryland, USA. Reports on the Internet from where the stories were sourced showed that Audu bought all the property after he became governor.

But the governor continues to dismiss the stories as, "falsehood aimed at making me look ridiculous."

Audu told his accusers that he was a bank executive for over 25 years, a business mogul and he had access to facilities that afforded him the privilege to acquire choice property. At one point he retorted: "Wherever they get a picture of a fine house, they say it is mine. The picture of the London house is not my house and they put the price at a very ridiculous amount of $5 million."

"Linking one with a house that is not my own is to blackmail one. I have so many houses in this country. They were not built recently, far better than the one they are talking about and they are all declared. If you go to Jos, I have the best house in Jos and I built it in 1986. The one they are even talking about is even small compared to my other houses. They want to make me look ridiculous.

"I am not a new comer to this. I know how to procure loans and overdrafts for this purpose," he said.

Audu's Special Adviser on Information and International Projects, Dan Okolo observed that no concrete evidence was available to link Audu to the London property.

However, Senator Tunde Ogbeha told a weekly newsmagazine in April that the Anti-Corruption Commission, the Code of Conduct Bureau and the State House of Assembly should investigate Audu.

"We want to know the source of his funds even if he bought those houses before he became governor. We want to know what nature of job he did that gave him so much money. It is not just saying that he worked for twenty-five years. Because even if he worked for 25 years even as an executive director of a bank, I'm not sure he is going to get one-quarter of the amount he used in buying the houses," Ogbeha said.

When the Code of Conduct Bureau balked at the idea of investigation of Audu without concrete evidence, the State House of Assembly on April 22, 2002 waded into the spiralling scandal. In what looked like an inquest, it invited all those who had evidence and documents to present them to prove the impropriety of the governor.

Apparently to put the seal on the matter, an injunction was obtained from the court, stopping further publication linking the name of the governor to the houses.

Though the stories and the consequent investigation did not prove or ascertain or convict Audu of any impropriety, it pointed to the fact that the man could be very rich. It is this unverifiable wealth and the power of incumbency that scares his political opponents and those aspiring to occupy the Lugard House.

Creation of local councils

With the story of the houses, his political opponent believed that Audu had handed them the rope to hang him. The opposition however hopes that the Anti-Corruption Commission and the Code of Conduct Bureau will find enough evidence to discredit Audu.

At the Kogi State House of Assembly, it was speculated that a N50 million gift from Audu to the marginally controlled APP House convinced the state lawmakers that this was the work of political detractors. The APP has 13 against PDP's 12 seats in the House, which absolved Audu on the ground that there was no evidence to support the allegations.

What could be hurting Audu, however, is the dwindling of his political base. Apart from the PDP gubernatorial aspirants from Igala, the lost Senator Alex Kadiri and Dan Kadiri, two APP stalwarts who decamped to the PDP. Alex Kadiri has become the best of the PDP in Kogi and it is suspected that he was wooed to the PDP as part of the grand plan to weaken the APP and Audu.

But Audu is hoping that somehow this will turn to the favour of the APP and himself. Right now, there are over 19 PDP aspirants lined up for the gubernatorial race. Political observers wonder how the party can control this crowd at the primaries without creating the kind of conflict and disaffection, which Audu usually benefits from.

The incidence of the 1999 elections comes easily to mind. And that is all the APP needs to further boost the mystery of the Audu factor in Kogi politics. Outside Deputy-Governor Adaba (Ebira) and A.T. Ahmed (Igala) the APP has no leading aspirant, thus giving credence to the feeling that Audu believes the Supreme Court will certify him eligible for the 2003 polls.

When he was asked why he redesigned the local government structure of Kogi, he said; "it was in response to the wishes of the Kogi people." He noted too that he wanted to create a balance, he wanted to right the wrongs inflicted on the Igala people on council creation.

But one of his critics, Ogbeha is unimpressed. "I do not see the much touted equity Audu wishes to create with his new arrangement because Kogi East got the lion share based on its land mass and population and the Igalas want it to remain this way," he said.

The restructuring meant the destruction of the 21 local council structure and the creation of 25 new councils. The new structure gave Kogi East (Igala) 15 council, Kogi Central (Ebira) five, and Kogi West (Okun) also five. When added to the old arrangement, it means that Kogi East now has 24 councils, Kogi Central 10 and Kogi West 12 councils.

Ogbeha had stated that the council creation, which led to violence and destruction of property and the death of 10 people was not quite essentially to balance the councils in the state. The strategy, he said, was a ploy to strengthen the hold of the APP on the state and secure it in the 2003 polls.

Under the old structure of 21 local councils, APP had 11 as against the 10 held by the PDP. This was considered too close to call by Audu who, with his new creation according to the first Ohinoyi Ebira in Kwara State, Alhaji Aliyu Audu, gave "APP 33 posts and PDP 13. Tell me how can anybody allow that?" he queried.

He alleged that in the new local councils, Andu has imposed APP loyalists and in the former PDP areas, he brought in his own APP loyalists.

"What this means, is that if the structure had remained, APP would have taken over the state and Audu will continue to be in power whether inside or outside the Lugard House," said Sani Abubakar of the Trade Bank in Lagos.

Audu first served as governor in 1992 and, unless the Constitution is amended or the courts find him eligible, he won't contest the 2003 elections. The governor knows this and his opponents know it, too. But still they have to contend with the man who is variously described as the 'Prince of Projects', 'Lion of the Niger', and 'Prince of Change'