Back to the future. (Oregon's growing pains)
BACK TO THE FUTURE
It was the 1970s when Oregon last flourished - the days of the first bottle bill, the first statewide land use planning, and Gov. Tom McCall, whose most-remembered remark exhorted outsiders to visit Oregon, but don't stay. Groups like the James G. Blaine Society and the Society of Native Oregon Born (SNOB) took a not-entirely-in-jest attitude toward discouraging newcomers.
It's 1990, and we're coming back to the future.
Throughout Oregon, more and more citizens are concerned about growth. In Eugene, citizens oppose a research park (see story, page 67) and a downtown office building. In Corvallis, they oppose expansion of a glass fiber plant. In Astoria, they oppose two hotels. In Lake Oswego and Portland, they oppose housing developments. The grounds for objection varied from perceived environmental damage to overwhelmed schools.
Only a few people say we've returned to the 1970s "visit, don't stay" attitude. But planners and economists warn we could see a resurgence of the attitude soon if we don't prepare for growth now.
"The rest of the country has packed its bags and is on the way out to join us," said Paul Sommers, research director of the Northwest Policy Center at the University of Washington's Graduate School of Public Affairs. Statistics bear him out - Oregon and Washington are among the 10 fastest-growing states.
For the past two years, immigration to Oregon on a percentage population basis has been the same as what California has experienced over the past 10 years, according to William Conerly, an economist with First Interstate Bank of Oregon.
Oregon's challenge will be to manage the growth - building homes without sprawling across open space, creating a better transportation web without levying unaffordable taxes, and absorbing 500,000 or more newcomers without spoiling the lifestyle that triggered growth in the first place.
Examples of how not to do it dot the west coast. California refugees move here daily, filled with horror stories of San Francisco housing prices and Los Angeles freeways. To the north, Puget Sound governments and citizens ignored growth pressures for 20 years, and today face a crisis.
For homeowners, growth can bring the benefit of appreciating property values. The Portland area posted the 13th fastest rise in housing prices last year. The average sale price of homes rose 10.8% in the third quarter last year to $71,800, the first significant increase in more than five years. Single-family home prices will increase another 10% this year, while luxury home prices will rise 20%, according to the Coldwell Banker real estate firm.
Rising prices have a down side, too. Already The Sunday Oregonian reports bidding wars are erupting for choice homes, and native Oregonians risk being priced out of the market. …
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