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Numbers notes: Thunder get stagnant with the game on the line

March 4, 2016  ·  12:16 PM ET


VIDEO: Stephen Curry’s 33 points lift Warriors past Thunder

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The Oklahoma City Thunder had some problems down the stretch of games against the Golden State Warriors on Saturday and the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. The Thunder were outscored 18-7 in the final 4:33 of the fourth quarter against Golden State and 22-3 in the final 4:59 at L.A.

Ugly endings, of course, put the Thunder’s late-game offense under scrutiny. It was the story when Scott Brooks was coach and it’s still the story with Billy Donovan now on the bench. In those two games, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shot a combined 3-for-16 in the clutch (last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime with the score within five points).

The Thunder rank last in passes per game overall, so it’s not like they play like the Spurs before the game gets late. But it sure seems like things get even more stagnant with the game on the line.

The numbers back that up. According to SportVU, the Thunder were averaging 2.68 passes on non-clutch possessions, but just 2.23 on clutch possessions through Wednesday. 3. Only three of Westbrook’s 33 clutch-time baskets and only 16 of Durant’s 42 clutch-time baskets have been assisted.

Both those passes per possession numbers (clutch and non-clutch) rank in the bottom two of the league, but the drop-off of 17 percent is about the league average. Other teams see a greater reduction…

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The Jazz are that team that throws 2-3 passes at the beginning of most possessions that do nothing. So ball movement is definitely going to go down when they’re more purposefully looking to get the ball into the hands of Gordon Hayward or Rodney Hood to run a pick-and-roll.

The Cavs? Yeah, you can see that.

On the other end of the list are the Spurs, of course. They move the ball whether the game is on the line or not. They rank third with 3.50 passes per possession on non-clutch possessions and first with 3.36 on clutch possessions.


VIDEO: Dissecting OKC’s late-game woes

Bench issues in OKC

Though the Thunder are 2-6 since the All-Star break, their starting lineup has been the league’s best five-man unit that has played at least 250 minutes, having outscored its opponents by 18.9 points per 100 possessions. In their two games against the Warriors in the last week, the OKC starters were a plus-23 (outscoring the champs 81-58) in 32 minutes.

But all other OKC lineups were a minus-41 and Dion Waiters was a minus-42 in 51:34 in the two games. No other Thunder player was worse than a minus-17.

Donovan has been staggering the minutes of Durant and Westbrook over the last six games, keeping one of them on the floor at all (non-garbage) times. Instead of playing the entire first quarter like he typically had done through the first two games after the break, Durant has been taking a few-minute break midway through the period.

It’s too early to tell if it’s working, but Thursday’s game seemed to be lost in 7:43 stretch spanning the third and fourth quarters, where only one of Durant or Westbrook was on the floor. When Durant subbed out at 4:38 of the third, OKC led by nine and by the time both were on the floor together again with 8:55 to go in the fourth, the Thunder were down five.

Would things have been different if they both stayed on the floor together longer and the Thunder played a few minutes of the fourth with neither in the game? Who knows.

In the six games that Donovan has been staggering his stars’ minutes, the Thunder are a plus-4 in 159 minutes with both on the floor and a plus-6 in 130 minutes with only one of the two on the floor. The offense has been great and the defense has been terrible no matter who has been on the floor. More study is needed.

55-5, playing at a disadvantage

There are plenty of numbers to explain how good the Warriors have been this season. Here’s another data point that makes their ridiculous 55-5 record look even more impressive than it looks on the surface…

Thursday’s win over the Thunder was just the sixth game this season in which the Warriors had a rest advantage, where they didn’t play the day before, but their opponent did. Only the Boston Celtics (5) have had fewer such games.

The Warriors have played twice as many games (12) with a rest disadvantage, where they played the night before, but their opponent didn’t. That’s the biggest negative rest-advantage-to-rest-disadvantage differential (-6) in the league.

Of course, they haven’t lost in either situation. The Warriors are 6-0 with a rest advantage and 12-0 with a rest disadvantage. All five of their losses have come when both teams were on the second night of a back-to-back (2-1) or when both teams didn’t play the day before (35-4).

The champs’ differential will be reduced a bit before the end of the season. They have seven games remaining with a rest advantage and five remaining at a disadvantage.

Not taking advantage

On the other end of the spectrum are the New York Knicks, who have played eight more games with a rest advantage (14) than they have with a rest disadvantage (6). No other team has a positive differential of more than three. But the Knicks are just 5-9 with an advantage, having allowed 108.1 points per 100 possessions in those 14 games.

Teams with a rest advantage (160-115) have the same winning percentage (.582) as home teams (530-381) do this season.

Point differential per 100 possessions…
Rest advantage: plus-2.2
Home court: plus-2.3

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Remaining schedule breakdown

March 1, 2016  ·  12:02 PM ET


VIDEO: Damian Lillard a nominee for Kia February Player of the Month

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The Portland Trail Blazers are the hottest team outside of Oakland or San Antonio. The Blazers are 21-8 since Christmas and have won 13 of their last 15 games with the league’s fifth-ranked offense and seventh-ranked defense during that stretch.

The Blazers’ run has been impressive, and that they’re even in the mix for a playoff spot is a surprise to almost everyone around the league. They’re currently in seventh place in the Western Conference, three games in the loss column ahead of the ninth-place Jazz, against whom they hold the tiebreaker with three wins in their four head-to-head meetings.

But it’s fair to say that the Blazers have taken advantage of a soft schedule over the last five-plus weeks…

  • Only six of the 15 opponents they’ve played are currently over .500.
  • Only four of the 15 games were on the road.
  • The stretch included only one back-to-back (in Chicago and Indiana this past weekend), but five of the Blazers’ 15 opponents were playing the second night of a back-to-back.
  • Only four of the games were against top-10 defenses, but eight were against bottom-10 defenses.

With the run they’re on and with Utah having lost six of its last eight games, the Blazers’ playoff ticket appears pretty safe. But if the Blazers are going to make their third straight trip to the postseason, they’re going to have to navigate a much tougher schedule over the final six weeks of the season than they have over the last five.

When you take opponent strength, home/road, and back-to-backs into account, only one team — Oklahoma City — has a tougher remaining schedule than the Blazers, who will spend most of March on the road. The trip that started Saturday in Chicago continues this week, and not only are 10 of the Blazers’ next 13 games away from Moda Center, nine of the 13 are against teams with winning records and eight are against top-10 offenses.

Things get a little easier over the final three weeks of the season, when the Blazers will play seven of their final nine games at home and five of those nine against teams with losing records. If they’re still in playoff position on March 25, they’re in great shape.

Here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedules for all 15 teams in the Western Conference…

20160301_west_sched

A few more Western Conference notes from the remaining schedule…

  • The Warriors haven’t lost a regular season game at home in more than 13 months, and will play 17 of their final 24 games at Oracle Arena. No other team has more than 15 remaining home games.
  • Nine of the Clippers‘ remaining 11 games against top-10 offenses are in a 12-game stretch starting Wednesday. Their schedule gets much easier after March 24, when only four of their final 11 games are against teams that currently have winning records (and one of those is against the Gasol-less Grizzlies).
  • The Grizzlies are the only team that doesn’t have any more games against opponents that are playing the second night of a back-to-back. Every other team has at least two of those games remaining. Memphis has three more soft games this week, but their schedule gets much, much tougher starting next Monday. Seventeen of their final 20 games are against teams over .500 or on the road.
  • The Spurs lead the league in defensive efficiency by a wide margin and have allowed 7.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average, the fifth best mark of the last 39 years. But the San Antonio defense will be challenged over the next six weeks more than it has in any other stretch of the season. Only four of the Spurs’ final 23 games are against bottom-10 offenses, while 12 are against to-10 offenses. That includes six games against the teams that rank No. 1 (Golden State) and No. 2 (Oklahoma City) in offensive efficiency.

The bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture is even more crowded than it is in the West. Only four games separate the fourth-place Miami Heat from the 10-place Washington Wizards.

The Charlotte Hornets are in the middle of that seven-team pack with a record of 30-28. They’ve been one of the league’s five most improved teams despite injuries to Al Jefferson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, as well as what has been the league’s fifth toughest schedule (toughest amongst those East teams in spots 4-10).

Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t coming back and Jefferson has yet to make much of an impact upon returning from a 23-game absence, but the Hornets’ schedule is about to provide some relief. Charlotte has the league’s easiest remaining schedule, with 15 of their final 24 games against teams under .500 and eight of those 15 against the six teams who rank in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

The Hornets need to start building a cushion right now, though. Eight of their next nine games are at home (where they’re 19-9) and the other is against the Philadelphia 76ers. Things start to get tougher on March 11, when they begin a stretch of eight games in 12 days. They’ll also play nine of their final 12 games away from Time Warner Cable Arena.

20160301_east_sched

More Eastern Conference notes…

  • The Celtics have the fewest remaining games (21) among teams in playoff contention, but do have a five-games-in-seven-days stretch starting on March 15. The good news is the last two opponents on that stretch (Philadelphia and Orlando) aren’t nearly as tough as the first three (Indiana, Oklahoma City and Toronto).
  • The Cavs have the first three days of March off, but then play five games in seven days to start the rest of their schedule. They have two more five-games-in-seven-days stretches (March 13-19 and March 31 – April 6) after that.
  • The Pistons have a league-low four remaining games against bottom-10 defenses. Three of those games are part of their longest homestand of the season, nine games between March 16 and April 1.
  • The Pacers play 10 more games against teams over .500 and seven of those 10 come in an eight-game stretch from March 4-19. That stretch, though, includes four straight days off from March 8-11. Only three of their final 13 games are against winning teams.
  • The Heat have a league-high 13 remaining games against bottom-10 offenses, including six straight to start March.
  • The Raptors have a busy, 16-game March. They’re off on Monday and Tuesday this week, but only have two more stretches of two straight days off before the end of the season (March 21-22 and April 3-4). Their seven-game homestand to start March is an every-other-day affair.

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Numbers notes: The other great shooting backcourt in the NBA

February 26, 2016  ·  11:09 AM ET


VIDEO: Stephen Curry scores 51 points in Orlando

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — Stephen Curry is following up his MVP season with … another MVP season.

On Thursday, Curry set the record for most consecutive games with a 3-pointer and hit 10 of them for good measure. He’s currently 10 away from his own record for most threes in a season (286), and he has 25 games left to play. He has shot an amazing 35-for-56 (62.5 percent) from 28 feet and out.

Klay Thompson, meanwhile, is quietly having the best shooting season of his career. He’s the only player within 100 threes of Curry and ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage among players who have taken at least 500 shots.

There’s no arguing that the Warriors don’t have the best shooting backcourt of all-time. But here’s a fun comparison …

Backcourt A has shot 44.4 percent from mid-range (between the paint and the 3-point line).
Backcourt B has shot 46.0 percent from mid-range.

Backcourt A has shot 44.3 percent from 3-point range.
Backcourt B has shot 43.9 percent from 3-point range.

Backcourt A has shot 44.3 percent on all shots outside the paint.
Backcourt B has shot 45.0 percent on all shots outside the paint. (more…)

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Thomas-less minutes key to Celtics’ surge up East standings

February 19, 2016  ·  12:05 PM ET


VIDEO: Isaiah Thomas’ top plays from mid-February

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — On the morning of Jan. 13, the Boston Celtics sat in 10th place in the Eastern Conference at 19-19, having lost four straight games.

The last loss in that streak came against the New York Knicks, who have since gone 3-12. The Boston defense, which ranked in the top five, allowed the Knicks to shoot 53 percent and score 120 points in that game.

The Celtics scored 114 points themselves, 65 in a second half they started with a small lineup. At the time, coach Brad Stevens said that small ball was about defense, but it’s been the Celtics’ offense that has improved since then.

The Celtics were a bottom-10 offensive team through that loss in New York. Since then, they’ve been a top-10 offensive team and have gone 13-4 to go from 10th in the East to third.

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Isaiah Thomas has averaged 21.8 points and 6.2 assists over these last 17 games, leading the team in usage rate by a wide margin. But it’s been the minutes with Thomas off the floor that have been more critical to the Celtics’ improvement.

Through Jan. 12, the Celtics were downright awful offensively when Thomas sat down, scoring 94.3 points per 100 possessions, which is worse than the Sixers have been this season. Since Jan. 13, they’ve jumped to 107.9 points per 100 possessions with Thomas off the floor.

20160219_thomas_on-off

Improved shooting from Jonas Jerebko, Marcus Smart and Tyler Zeller has been critical. But another key has been Stevens settling on a rotation.

Through Jan. 12 (38 games), no lineup that didn’t include Thomas played more than 31 minutes. But in the 17 games since then, the Celtics have a no-Thomas lineup — Smart, Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk — that has played 113 minutes and outscored its opponents by 16.0 points per 100 possessions. Neither Turner nor Smart can shoot very well, but their playmaking is complemented by two shooting bigs. David Lee had played 41 percent of the no-Thomas minutes before Jan. 12, but hasn’t played at all since then.

Some context: Only four of the Celtics’ 17 games in that stretch before the All-Star break were played against teams that currently rank in the top 10 defensively. They’ll face 10 top-10 defenses in their final 27 games, and that doesn’t include two meetings against the Utah Jazz, who rank 14th for the season, but fifth in the six weeks since Rudy Gobert returned from injury.

The first of those two meetings is Friday (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The game is more important for the ninth-place Jazz, but it will also be a test of the Celtics’ improved, second-unit offense.

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Numbers notes: No drive in Russell

February 5, 2016  ·  11:45 AM ET


VIDEO: Assist of the Night: D’Angelo Russell to Tarik Black

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — Much has been made of rookie D’Angelo Russell‘s playing time with the 11-41 Los Angeles Lakers. Though he ranks sixth among rookies in minutes per game, it seems like the No. 2 pick could have a bigger (or at least a more consistent) role with a team that never had a chance of competing for a playoff spot this season.

But how Russell plays is as interesting a question as how much he plays. According to SportVU, the Lakers have scored 1.35 points per possession when Russell drives, a mark that would compare with those of Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook.

But Russell has only recorded 145 drives, 2.9 per game and 3.9 per 36 minutes. SportVU says that he has turned a pick-and-roll into a drive only 10.3 percent of the time, a rate that ranks 86th among 94 ball-handlers who have come off at least 300 ball screens. Teammate Jordan Clarkson has driven more than twice as often (26.0 percent) when coming off ball screens.

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Emmanuel Mudiay, taken five picks after Russell, is another interesting comparison. The Nuggets’ point guard has been the league’s worst shooter from outside the paint, but he has driven 9.2 times per 36 minutes, almost 2 1/2 times as often as Russell.

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Only 38 percent of the Lakers’ shots have come in the paint, the lowest rate in the league. The shot selections of Kobe Bryant and Lou Williams are more jumper-heavy than that or Russell, but it would help if the rookie attacked the basket more often.

Potent drives

It should be no surprise that three All-Stars top the list of players who produce the most points for their team when they drive. Curry has become one of the league’s best finishers among guards, Westbrook has mixed it up more this season, and Chris Paul is the consummate playmaker.

But there are a couple of non-All-Stars on the list below that have produced for their team when they’ve attacked the basket.

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Felton has come back after a rough first season in Dallas and benefited from the potency of the players around him. He’s part of a Dallas lineup that has scored 115.2 points per 100 possessions, the third highest rate among lineups that have played at least 200 minutes together.

Holiday is another interesting name on the list, especially given how often he has driven. After driving about nine times per 36 minutes in his first two (injury-riddled) seasons in New Orleans, Holiday ranks fifth in drives per 36 among players who have played at least 750 minutes, trailing only Ish Smith (15.6), Jeff Teague (13.9), Reggie Jackson (13.0) and Isaiah Thomas (12.5).

Offense picking up

If it feels like offense has picked up as the season has gone on, it’s because it has. Since Jan. 1, the league has scored 104.4 points per 100 possessions, up from 102.2 through Dec. 31. Through Thursday, efficiency is right where it was (103.0) at the end of last season.

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This isn’t a surprise. Offensive efficiency typically increases as the season goes on. But it might not keep going up in a straight line, though. Don’t be surprised if you watch some ugly games in late February.

Last season was the first time we had an extended All-Star break, with each team getting at least eight days off between their last game before the All-Star Game and their first game before it. And we saw a big dip in efficiency coming out of the break. After scoring 103.7 points per 100 possessions in the 85 pre-break February games, the league scored just 100.0 in 76 post-break February games, shooting worse and turning the ball over more.

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The league recovered in March and April, but not all the way to the level it was playing offensively before the extended break.

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February schedule breakdown

February 1, 2016  ·  1:44 PM ET


VIDEO: Clutch Plays of January

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — Rather quietly, the Memphis Grizzlies have won seven of their last eight games. And they’ve done it in uncharacteristic fashion, scoring 110.5 points per 100 possessions over the eight games, the league’s seventh best mark over that stretch.

At the start of January, the Grizzlies were tied for sixth place in the Western Conference. They’ve only moved up to fifth, but that’s a key advancement. There are three West teams that are much better than the other 12, and if you finish fourth or fifth, you don’t have to face any of the big three in the first round of the playoffs.

One reason for the Grizzlies’ recent success is the schedule. They’ve played nine of their last 11 games at home and the last seven against teams with losing records.

And the schedule is the reason the Grizzlies’ should remain in that 4-5 quadrant of the West playoff picture. Memphis has the league’s easiest February by a wide margin.

The Grizzlies will spend most of the month (seven games) on the road, but only two of their 11 February games are against teams (Dallas and Toronto) that currently have winning records. They play the Nets, Timberwolves and Suns, and face the 9-41 Lakers twice in a row late in the month. And they could remain a strong offensive team, with just one February game against a top-10 defense (Feb. 21 at Toronto).

Things will get tougher for the Grizzlies in March (when they face the Spurs twice) and April (when they face the Warriors twice). But their February schedule should have them in good position well beyond the All-Star break.

20160201_west_sched

A few more Western Conference notes from the February schedule…

  • The Warriors and Thunder will meet for the first time on Saturday in Oakland. They’ll also play in Oklahoma City on Feb. 27. Neither game is part of a back-to-back for either team.
  • The Mavs play just two February games (fewest in the West) against bottom-10 defenses. They’re their last two games – vs. Denver and Minnesota – of the month.
  • 28 of the 30 teams play either five (15) or six (13) games between now and the All-Star break. The exceptions are the Warriors, who only play four games in the next 10 days, and the Pelicans, who play seven in the next 11.
  • But the Warriors play just two home games this month and begin their post-break schedule with a seven-game trip that starts with a rough five-games-in-seven-days stretch that takes them from Portland to L.A. to Atlanta to Miami to Orlando.
  • Just a game in the loss column separates the seventh-place Rockets from the eighth-place Blazers, who play each other three times (twice in Portland) in February.
  • The Clippers begin their post-break schedule by hosting the Spurs (Feb. 18) and Warriors (Feb. 20). But those are their only two February games against top-10 offenses.
  • The Warriors, Spurs and Thunder are a combined 71-8 against the other 12 teams in the West. That’s bad news for the Pelicans and Suns, who each have three games against the big three this month.
  • The Suns have have a 2.4-points-per-100-possessions edge over the Lakers for 29th in defensive efficiency, but play their first eight games against top-10 offenses.
  • Sleep Train Arena will be a good place to be for the last six days of the month, when the Kings host the Spurs, Clippers and Thunder.
  • After the Spurs host the Lakers on Feb. 6, they don’t have another home game until March 2. It’s rodeo time.

Like the Grizzlies, the Miami Heat are in the middle of their conference’s playoff picture. But the Heat are in a different boat in regard to the month ahead. They have the league’s toughest February schedule, with six road games, eight games against teams that are .500 or better, and only one game (Tuesday at Houston) against a team that currently ranks in the bottom 10 in either offensive or defensive efficiency.

Miami is just 10-13 against other teams that are currently .500 or better, but is coming off wins over Chicago and Atlanta last week.

20160201_east_sched

More Eastern Conference notes…

  • The two best teams in the East – the Cavs and Raptors – meet Feb. 26 in Toronto.
  • The Hawks leave the Eastern time zone for only one game (Feb. 10 in Chicago) all month.
  • Starting with Tuesday’s visit to New York, the Celtics go into the break with six games in just nine days, including two road-home back-to-backs.
  • The Nets have played the league’s toughest schedule thus far, but have a relatively easy February. That could affect the Lottery odds of the pick that Boston owns. Brooklyn is two games behind both Minnesota and Phoenix in the win column, so a decent month could drop that pick from the third best odds to the fifth best odds.
  • The Hornets are the only team that plays all of its February games within its conference. Sunday’s win over the Lakers was their last road game of the season against the West. They’re one of two teams (Orlando is the other) that plays seven February games against top-10 defenses.
  • The Bucks will be the second team to wrap up its road schedule against the opposite conference. Their last three games in West arenas are this week.
  • The Magic begin the month with visits to San Antonio and Oklahoma City, followed by a home game against the Clippers. They play five total games against the West’s top four this month, and they don’t play a single February game against a bottom-10 defense.
  • The Hawks and Knicks each play just one February game against top-10 offense, and they both do it on Feb. 22, when Atlanta hosts Golden State and New York hosts Toronto.

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Numbers notes: The stagger question

January 29, 2016  ·  11:11 AM ET


VIDEO: Thunder hang on to top Knicks

ALSO THIS WEEK: Raptors bench stands out in East | When you can beat the Warriors

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The Oklahoma City Thunder almost left New York without a win. They lost to the 11-33 Nets in Brooklyn on Sunday and were in trouble against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday.

The Thunder trailed the Knicks by three after the third quarter and, with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the bench, the Knicks’ lead went from three points to 11 in the first 2:29 of the fourth.

Thunder coach Billy Donovan took a timeout and got Westbrook back in the game. It wasn’t too late, the Thunder erased the 11-point deficit by the end of regulation, and won in overtime.

But the situation brought to the surface the question about whether the Thunder have to play any minutes with neither Durant nor Westbrook on the floor. The pair average 70 minutes per game between them and Donovan could stagger their playing time so that he never has to play a full bench unit.

He does stagger their minutes a little bit. Westbrook usually gets replaced with 2-3 minutes left in the first quarter and third quarters, while Durant stays on the floor for the remainder of the period. Then Westbrook returns a little earlier in the second and fourth quarters than Durant does. Over the last eight games, the Thunder have averaged about seven minutes per game with one of the two (but not the other) on the floor.

But stretches like they had in New York could be avoided if Westbrook sat earlier in the first and third quarters, returning to start the second and fourth.

Earlier in the season, I looked at the same issue with the Clippers, who don’t have as good a bench as the Thunder do and who don’t really have to answer the question with Blake Griffin out for another 4-6 weeks.

Donovan answered the question after the OT win in New York, and he’s willing to see his bench sink or swim with his two stars off the floor.

“Kevin, I think, for his rhythm, what he likes is playing that whole first quarter,” the coach said Tuesday. “He likes the rhythm of that. He feels like he gets in the flow of the game. So there’s going to be some times those guys are not going to be on the floor. I’ve said this from the beginning of the year, I got confidence in the guys coming off the bench. I got confidence in other guys. Other guys need to step up. And our bench has been playing pretty well.

“If 40 minutes are going to be played with one of those two guys on the court, we got to be able to play for that [other] six or eight minutes.”

Durant and Westbrook will obviously see a minutes increase in the playoffs, but it remains to be seen if Donovan also staggers their playing time more as well in the postseason. In fact, the night after the game in New York, Donovan staggered his stars’ minutes even less. In Minnesota on Wednesday, he had one of the two stars on the floor for just three total minutes. But the Thunder were a plus-2 in the 10 minutes that both were on the bench in another close win against a bad team.

Best bench in the East


VIDEO: The Association: Toronto Raptors

One team that has staggered the minutes of its stars is the Toronto Raptors, who have kept either Kyle Lowry (who sits at the end of the first and third quarters) or DeMar DeRozan (who sits at the start of the second and fourth) on the floor at all (non-garbage) times.

That’s one reason for the Raptors’ success with reserves on the floor, which was the topic of this week’s stats video…


VIDEO: GameTime: Schu’s Advanced Stats – Raptors bench

Against the Knicks on Thursday, the Raptors’ starting lineup was outscored by nine points in 13.4 minutes, but they still won by 10. Through 46 games, their starting lineups are a minus-23 and they’ve been the fourth worst team, getting outscored by 9.3 points per 100 possessions, in the first six minutes of the first quarter. Only the Suns (minus-11.8), Sixers (minus-14.3) and Lakers (minus-21.9) have been worse.

But the Raps are about even in first quarters overall, because they’ve outscored their opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions in the last six minutes of the period, when the reserves start taking the floor. A lineup of DeRozan and their top four subs (Cory Joseph, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson and Bismack Biyombo) is a plus-14 in 126 minutes this season.

The second quarter, though, is when the Raptors have really been separating themselves. A lineup of Lowry and those same reserves has outscored opponents 279-194 in 127 minutes. Lowry (plus-255) has the best plus-minus on the team, and he’s followed by Patterson (plus-213), Joseph (plus-185) and Ross (plus-164). The Raptors rank second, behind only the San Antonio Spurs, in aggregate bench plus-minus.

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The Raptors have won 10 straight games, with a top-5 offense and a top-5 defense in that time, taking a strong hold on second place in the Eastern Conference. It’s not only the third straight season that they’re heading for the playoffs. It’s also the third straight season that they’ve been at their best with reserves on the floor.

When you can beat the Warriors

The Warriors are kind of the opposite of the Raptors, in that the first six minutes of the second and fourth quarters are when they’re at their worst. In their two meetings, the Raptors outscored the Warriors 53-40 in the first six minutes of the second and fourth quarters.

Like Oklahoma City and Toronto, the champs have two elite players, and they’ve subbed them in and out more like the Thunder than the Raps. Golden State has outscored its opponents by an amazing 25.1 points per 100 possessions in 1,331 minutes with both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green on the floor. And in 361 minutes with one of the two on the floor, they’re a plus-8.1 per 100 possessions.

But in the 536 minutes that both Curry and Green have been off the floor, the Warriors have been outscored by 10.5 points per 100 possessions, a point differential worse than that of the Sixers this season.

Some of that is garbage time. But if you look at just the first three quarters and fourth quarter minutes where the score is within 10 points, the Warriors still have been outscored by 6.9 points per 100 possessions in 308 minutes with neither Curry nor Green on the floor.

The champs have been ridiculously good with their two best players on the floor. No kidding. But the Warriors’ bench hasn’t been able to hold onto leads with Curry and Green off the floor as well as they did last season.

Through Thursday, Curry and Green lead the league on on-off-court NetRtg differential. The Warriors have been an amazing 29.8 points per 100 possessions better with the MVP on the floor than they’ve been with him on the bench. That number is 10 points per 100 possessions higher than that of last season’s leader (Chris Paul, 19.8) and almost 13 points per 100 possessions higher than Curry’s mark last season (17.1).

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Spurs-Warriors, a historically good matchup by the numbers

January 25, 2016  ·  12:04 AM ET


VIDEO: Brent Barry looks ahead Monday night’s match-up between the Spurs and Warriors.

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — It’s the matchup we’ve been waiting three months for.

The San Antonio Spurs visit the Golden State Warriors on Monday (10:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV), the first meeting between what have been the league’s two best teams by a wide margin.

The Warriors are on pace for the best record in NBA history, while the Spurs are on pace for the best point differential in NBA history. And they’re each on pace to make history on one end of the floor or the other.

It’s hard to argue that this isn’t the biggest regular season matchup we’ve seen in our lifetimes. In fact, it’s the first time in NBA history that two teams with winning percentages better than .850 have played each other this late in the season.

There are several staggering numbers to digest when it comes to these two teams. Here’s a look at some of them.

Historically good offense

The league started counting turnovers in 1977. Since then, the league’s five best offenses, comparing team efficiency to the league average, have been run by Steve Nash. Now Nash’s current team (he’s a consultant for the Warriors) is on pace to eclipse any mark that his teams registered in Dallas or Phoenix.

Through their first 44 games, the Warriors have scored 10.0 points per 100 possessions above the league average, making them the best offense of the last 39 years.

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The Warriors are a below-average team in regard to turnover rate and free throw rate. They rank 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, but their offensive success is almost entirely about how well they’ve shot the ball.

The champs’ effective field goal percentage of 56.0 percent is the highest mark in NBA history. Their 3-point percentage is the second-highest in NBA history, and they also rank in the top five in field goal percentage from both the restricted area and mid-range.

San Antonio isn’t too bad offensively either. In fact, the Spurs have led the league in offensive efficiency since Dec. 1. They lead the league in field goal percentage in the restricted area and are the only team other than the Warriors that has shot better than 40 percent from outside the paint.

Historically good defense

The Spurs are doing on defense what the Warriors are doing on offense. They’ve allowed 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average, the best mark since the league started counting turnovers in 1977.

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San Antonio leads the league in opponent effective field goal percentage. They’ve been the best in the league at defending the restricted area and forcing mid-range shots, the least efficient shots on the floor. They also lead the league in defensive rebounding percentage (with the highest mark since the league starting counting offensive and defensive rebounds separately in 1973) and rank third in opponent free throw rate, allowing less than 24 free throws per 100 shots from the field.

The Warriors can play some defense too. They led the league in defensive efficiency last season and rank third this season, ranking in the top 10 in opponent field goal percentage in the paint, from mid-range and from 3-point range. They’ve allowed the fewest corner 3-point attempts.

A league of their own

Put elite offense and elite defense together and you’ll do more than just win games. You’ll rack up a strong point differential as well. And on a per-possession basis, these two teams have the best point differentials of the last 29 years.

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Six of the other eight teams on the list above won the championship.

15 is the magic number

You do not want to fall into a deep hole against the Warriors, who have won the last 91 games that they’ve led by 15 points or more, a streak that goes back to April of 2014. On their way to a championship last season, they went 47-0 in the regular season and 12-0 in the playoffs when leading by at least 15 points. This season, they’re 29-0, though they’ve had a couple of close calls.

Other teams have had longer such streaks, but none of them led by 15 or more in more than half their games during those streaks. The Warriors have led by 15-plus in an amazing 58 percent of their games since the streak started more than 21 months ago.

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The champs still have a long way to go to match the mark set by the Spurs, who have been putting together another run of their own. San Antonio has won the last 58 games it has led by 15 or more points, a streak that goes back to last Jan. 10. And they’ve led by 15-plus in 60 percent of their games over the streak.

This season, the Spurs are 30-0 in games in which they’ve had a lead of at least 15 points. They’ve already set a franchise record with 12 wins by 25 points or more.

Our house

No team in NBA history has ever gone undefeated at home, but both of these teams are about halfway there. The Spurs are 24-0 at the AT&T Center and have won 33 straight regular-season home games, dating back to March 12, 2015.

The Warriors are 20-0 at Oracle Arena this season. If they beat the Spurs on Monday, it will have been a full year since they last lost a regular season home game. And over the course of their 38-game home winning streak, they’ve outscored their opponents by 15.9 points per 100 possessions.

The Warriors have a better road record than the Spurs, but San Antonio has the league’s best road NetRtg, having outscored its opponents by 13.0 points per 100 possessions in their 20 road games.

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Numbers like Thompson over Mozgov when Cavaliers play big

January 21, 2016  ·  12:00 PM ET

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The Cleveland Cavaliers’ longest winning streak of the season – eight games from Dec. 28 to Jan. 12 – coincided with a lineup change, Tristan Thompson replacing Timofey Mozgov at center.

The winning streak came to an end in San Antonio last Thursday and Thompson went back the bench for the last three games. Matchups had something to do with it. The Cavs’ last three games have been against big centers (Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut and Brook Lopez), and Cavs coach David Blatt acknowledged that size is the reason Mozgov has started those three games.

So Thompson could be back in the starting lineup again soon. It probably won’t happen on Thursday, when the Cavs host DeAndre Jordan and the Los Angeles Clippers (8 p.m. ET, TNT), but the Cavs’ numbers suggest that Thompson is the better choice.

The Cavs have played almost 1,000 minutes with LeBron James and Kevin Love at the forward positions, and about an equal number with Mozgov and Thompson at center. And Cleveland has been much better, especially offensively with Thompson at the five.

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Those minutes account for 71 percent of James’ total minutes. He’s also played 78 minutes with Thompson at the four and either Mozgov or Anderson Varejao at the five. He’s played only 8.1 minutes per game of small ball this season.

Interestingly, the Cavs’ numbers have been similar whether James is playing with one big or two.

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Thompson has been the center for most (192) of those one-big minutes, but the Cavs are a minus-26 with a James/Thompson frontline (in part because they’ve used it for more defensive than offensive possessions). They’ve been better (plus-63 in 86 minutes) with a James/Love frontline and three guards/wings, a configuration they could go to more often now that they have their full complement of guards available.

Lineups didn’t matter when the Cavs got smoked by the Warriors on Monday, but Blatt will continue to have interesting choices from game to game and minute to minute.

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Gordon injury could mark end of Pelicans’ little-used big five

January 20, 2016  ·  1:32 PM ET

HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The New Orleans’ Pelicans announced Wednesday afternoon that Eric Gordon is out 4-6 weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a fracture in his right ring finger.

The injury is the latest of many for the Pelicans, who have already been without Tyreke Evans for 19 games, Norris Cole for 17, Jrue Holiday for six, Anthony Davis for five, Ryan Anderson for two, and Quincy Pondexter for the whole season.

In his first season in New Orleans, coach Alvin Gentry hasn’t had all his tools at his disposal. But he also hasn’t used his best tools together very often.

Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Anderson and Davis have all been available in 17 games this season. And in those 17 games, that group of five players has been on the floor together for less than 33 minutes.

In those (less than) 33 minutes together, that unit has outscored its opponents by a score of 99-56, with an effective field goal percentage of 61 percent.

One reason that they’ve outscored their opponents by so much is that they’ve been on the floor for a lot more offensive possessions than defensive possessions. Gentry has used his big five mostly in the fourth quarter (22 of the 33 minutes), when his team needs a basket or when the opponent is looking to foul. In their time on the floor, they’ve racked up 61 shots and 33 free throw attempts, while their opponents have totaled just 52 and 10.

And of course, there are defensive concerns with that unit. But it’s so potent offensively that the Pelicans have always outscored their opponents with it.

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Even with his team near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, Gentry never took much of a chance on what is clearly his most talented lineup. Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Anderson and Davis have played more than five minutes together in just two games.

In one of the only games it was given extended run, the lineup turned a four-point deficit into a six-point lead (and, eventually, a five-point win) in Denver on Dec. 20, scoring 19 points in 5:33.

Remember that game-winning alley-oop Davis threw down last week against Charlotte? Davis and Holiday had space to run their pick-and-roll, because there was *shooting at the other three positions to space the floor. But that was only the second offensive possession in the month of January in which Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Anderson and Davis were all on the floor together.

*Yes, even Evans (29-for-76 from 3-point range in just 22 games) can be called a shooter now.

There was hope that extended health would compel Gentry to use his best players together more often. But Gordon’s injury has the big five stuck on plus-43 in 33 minutes, with the possibility of Anderson being traded before Gordon returns.

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