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Dogs of the Season - seasonal ("Sell in May") investing strategy

post #1 of 45
Thread Starter 

Hi,

In 2007 I started tracking my success with a seasonal investing strategy which uses fundamental analysis to choose stocks to buy in Autumn and sell in Spring. I called the strategy "Dogs of the Season". It is really simple because it requires only 8 trades a year.

Last year the stock pics were:
AAP,DLM,IBM,WXS bought on Oct 16, sold on Apr 20 (+18.72%). All stocks are from Barron's 400 list.

I'm looking forward to this year stock picks which I'll post here when the entry date arrives (usually in late October).

I'd like to discuss here seasonal investing and other strategies that beat S&P over the long run, but require infrequent trading.

For more information about the strategy you can visit the site DogsOfTheSeason.com
 

post #2 of 45
Thread Starter 
The entry date for 2010/2011 favorable season has arrived. The DOTS strategy determines the entry date by looking at TA signals on Dow and S&P.

The following portfolio has been selected by the DOTS strategy:

TickerPriceDate
BKE30.2010-18-2010
ENDP35.6610-18-2010
MSFT25.8210-18-2010
NUS32.0310-18-2010


All of the selected stocks meet a set of rules defined by the strategy. The stocks will be sold in Spring when TA signals determine the exit date.

The goal of the DOTS strategy is to beat S&P over the long run and to avoid losses in any season. More info at DogsOfTheSeason.com.
post #3 of 45
Thread Starter 
11-04-2010 Let's see how the DOTS portfolio performed so far:

Ticker Price 10-18 Price 11-04 %
BKE 30.20 32.98 +9.21%
ENDP 35.66 35.83 +0.48%
MSFT 25.82 27.14 +5.11%
NUS 32.03 32.36 +1.03%
------------------------
S&P 1,184.71 1,221.06 +3.07%
------------------------
DOTS PORTFOLIO: +3.96%

DOTS portfolio beat the market so far, but it still has long time to go until Spring.
post #4 of 45
Thread Starter 
11-26-2010 The DOTS portfolio performance so far:

Ticker Price 10-18 Price 11-26 %
BKE 30.20 38.49 +27.45%
ENDP 35.66 35.35 -0.87%
MSFT 25.82 25.25 -2.21%
NUS 32.03 32.05 +0.06%
------------------------
S&P 1,184.71 1,189.40 +0.40%
------------------------
DOTS PORTFOLIO: +6.09%

The portfolio continues to beat the market.
post #5 of 45
Thread Starter 
01-21-2011 The DOTS portfolio performance so far:

Ticker Price 10-18 Price 1-21 %
BKE 30.20 36.48 +20.79%
ENDP 35.66 33.68 -5.55%
MSFT 25.82 28.02 +8.52%
NUS 32.03 30.39 -5.12%
------------------------
S&P 1,184.71 1,283.35 +8.33%
------------------------
DOTS PORTFOLIO: +4.66%

The dividends are not included in the calculation. They will add a percentage or two to the DOTS portfolio because BKE gave a big special dividend. MSFT and NUS gave regular dividends.

For the first time, S&P outperformed DOTS portfolio. There are still 3-4 months untill the end of the season, so there will be plenty ot time for things to change. I'll keep you notified.
post #6 of 45
Thread Starter 

04-05-2011 The DOTS portfolio performance so far:

 

Ticker Price 10/18 Price 04/05 Gain %
BKE 30.20 40.47 +34.01%
ENDP 35.66 40.42 +13.35%
MSFT 25.82 25.78  -0.15%
NUS 32.03 28.76 -10.21%
       
DOTS portfolio     +9.25%
S&P 500 1,184.71 1,332.63 +12.49%




 

 
 

 

 

 

S&P still has better results than DOTS portfolio. It will be interesting to see the final score when the DOTS strategy signals the exit.The exit date can be as early as 2 weeks from now.

post #7 of 45
Thread Starter 

The portfolio was sold on 5/9/2011 as DOTS strategy signaled the exit date. The profit (including dividends) was +22.80%. The S&P 500 gained +13.64%. The detailed performance will be posted soon. 

 

Follow DogsOfTheSeason on Twitter

post #8 of 45
Thread Starter 

Here's the detailed performance of DOTS portfolio for the season 2010/2011.
 

Ticker Buy date
10/18/2010
Sell date
05/09/2011
Dividends Gain %
BKE 30.20 44.59 2.9 +57.25%
ENDP 35.66 41.14 0 +15.37%
MSFT 25.82 25.83 0.32  +1.28%
NUS 32.03 37.31 0.26 +17.30%
         
DOTS portfolio       +22.80%
S&P 500 1,184.71 1,346.29   +13.64%

 

DOTS performance in previous years

 

Last S&P 500 value (6/1/2011) is 1,314.55 which is lower than on the date the stocks were sold (5/9/2011)

 

Interested in the strategy? Feel free to contact me (You'll find my contact info on DOTS web page).

post #9 of 45
Thread Starter 

The subscription for 2011/2012 season stock picks is available now on http://www.dogsoftheseason.com/subscribe.aspx. The price of subscription is 0.50 bitcoins or $15. Bitcoin is a peer-to peer digital currency (Google it for more info).


Edited by DogsOfTheSeason - 9/12/11 at 6:29am
post #10 of 45
Thread Starter 

The entry date for 2011/2012 favorable season has arrived on October 17. The selected stocks were sent to our subscribers along with the prices:

 

Ticker

Price

Date

AAPL

417.70

10-17-2011

BKI

27.12

10-17-2011

FRX

32.13

10-17-2011

ROST

83.76

10-17-2011

 

These stocks will be sold next Spring when the DOTS strategy determines the exit date. Last season the DOTS portfolio made 22.8%.

post #11 of 45
Thread Starter 

12-05-2011 The DOTS portfolio performance so far:

 

Ticker Price 10/17 Price 12/02 Gain %
AAPL 417.70 389.70 -6.70%
BKI 27.12 31.30 +15.41%
FRX 32.13 29.89 -6.97%
ROST 83.76 92.42 +10.34%
DOTS portfolio     +3.02%
S&P 500 1,206.87 1,244.28 +3.10%




 

 
 

 

 

 

S&P has slighthly better performance than DOTS portfolio so far.



 

post #12 of 45
Thread Starter 

 

The portfolio was sold on 4/20/2012 as DOTS strategy signaled the exit date. Here's the detailed performance of DOTS portfolio for the season 2011/2012:
 

Ticker Buy date
10/17/2011
Sell date
4/20/2012
Dividends Gain %
AAPL 417.70 582.68 0 +39.5%
BKI 27.12 33.14 0.13 +22.7%
FRX 32.13 34.04 0  +5.9%
ROST 41.88* 60.11 0.25* +44.1%
         
DOTS portfolio       +28.1%
S&P 500 1,206.87 1,386.61   +14.9%

*adjusted for stock split

 

The portfolio performance was +28.1% vs S&P500: +14.9%.

 

DogsOfTheSeason.com

post #13 of 45
Thread Starter 

DOTS performance 2006 - 2012

 

 

700

 

The chart above shows how $100.000 invested in DOTS in 2006 has grown to over $320.000 in 2012. S&P 500 gained exactly 0.7% during the same period!

post #14 of 45
Thread Starter 

The new investing season might start this week depending on the market condition. Will this be the 7th year in a row to beat S&P 500? 

post #15 of 45
Thread Starter 

The entry date for 2012/2013 favorable season has arrived on 11/26/2012. 
 

The following portfolio has been selected by the DOTS strategy:

 

Ticker Price
EWBC 21.46
INGR 63.08
OIS 67.61
ORCL 30.85

 


All of the selected stocks meet a set of rules defined by the strategy. The stocks will be sold in Spring when TA signals determine the exit date.

post #16 of 45
Thread Starter 

The portfolio was sold on 4/22/2013 as DOTS strategy signaled the exit date. Here's the detailed performance of DOTS portfolio for the season 2012/2013:
 

Ticker Buy date
11/26/2012
Sell date
4/22/2013
Dividends Gain %
EWBC 21.46 23.37 0.15 +9.6%
INGR 63.08 72.61 0.64 +16.1%
OIS 67.61 74.37 0  +10.0%
ORCL 30.85 32.30 0.18 +5.3%
         
DOTS portfolio       +10.3%
S&P 500 1,404.59 1,551.46   +10.5%

 

The performance was slightly lower than S&P this year, but the strategy keeps double-digit growth since I started this thread 3 years ago. The 7-year annualized return is +20.7%! Check out DOTS web site if you're interested in subscribing for the next season.

post #17 of 45
Thread Starter 

To summarize:

 

Year Gain
2007 +37.1%
2008 +25.3%
2009 +2.7%
2010 +18.7%
2011 +22.8%
2012 +28.1%
2013 +10.3%

 

7-year annualized return is +20.7%

 

If you know a better investment strategy, please let me know!  #TheBestInvestmentStrategyInTheWorld

post #18 of 45
Interesting results, I'm surprised at how consistent it has been. Great stuff! smile.gif All I have ever heard is how your average investor that picks individual stocks never beats the market.. 0.2% off can be considered matching the market performance this year.
post #19 of 45
Thread Starter 

Thanks. I can't wait to see what the next year's performance will be.

 

BTW, Last year I selected an additional portfolio at the same time as the published one and following the same rules. It gained 14.88%.

post #20 of 45
Thread Starter 

Not much to report during summer, but now the next investing season is approaching. It's time to decide how much to invest, prepare funds...

 

I redesigned the DOTS web page so now it also (hopefully) looks good on mobile phones.

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