Nico Rosberg, Mercedes, Red Bull Ring, 2015

Why Alonso was right about Ferrari’s modest gains in 2015

2015 F1 season review: Car performancePosted on | Author Keith Collantine

In 2015 Mercedes retained almost all of the performance advantage they enjoyed the year before but allied it to improved reliability.

The result was a repeat of their championship success and an increased haul of one-two finishes, podiums and points – the latter despite fewer points being on offered compared to last year.

The significant development this year was that their closest competitor on outright pace was no longer their customer team Williams but manufacturer rivals Ferrari – the only other team to win a race. Renault’s struggles left Red Bull unable to repeat their victories of 2014.

Teams performance in 2015

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Sergio Perez, Force India, Yas Marina, 2015
Perez revelled in Force India’s upgraded VJM08
Mercedes showed up at the first race of the season with a larger performance advantage than they had at any race in 2014. It was a worrying sign of things to come for their rivals, and although it wasn’t repeated Mercedes arrived at almost every weekend knowing they would have by far the quickest car.

As in 2014, Mercedes set the fastest lap of the weekend at every circuit with a single exception. But while last year driver error was to blame for their one blip in Austria, this time they came unstuck in Singapore and seemed to do so largely because they failed to optimise their car for the track’s peculiar demands. It wasn’t one of their strongest venues last year, either.

Force India made clear progress during the season having swapped their original VJM08 from the B-spec version, going from Q1 drop-outs to podium contenders in the process. Sauber slipped backwards, however, and come the end of the season were little closer to the pace than they had been last year.

NB. In the USA all session were wet apart from the race, in which both Williams drivers retired early on, which explains the spike in the chart

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Teams performance trends in the new turbo era

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Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, Singapore, 2015
Did Ferrari improve or did Red Bull drop the ball?
Unlike last year one team emerged as Mercedes’ closest rival for almost every race of the season: Ferrari. But was this a breakthrough by the Italian team or the consequence of others failing to make gains?

Fernando Alonso had a clear view on that question. Having jumped ship from Ferrari to McLaren over the winter, he was adamant his former team were not in a position to suddenly shrink the gap to Mercedes, and claimed their position in 2015 was flattered by other teams under-performing.

Alonso certainly seems to have a point as far as Red Bull was concerned. The team pilloried its engine supplier Renault as it watched the gap between it and Mercedes grow from 0.96% last year to 1.52% this season – equivalent to 1.37 seconds over a typical 90-second lap. Williams too failed to carry its late-2014 form into the new season. Having been the closest team to Mercedes in the final races of last year, they seldom reached the same heights in 2015.

Ferrari trimmed their average deficit to the pace from 1.14% in 2014 to 0.77% this year – comparable to where they were in 2012 and 2013, when Alonso’s patience was wearing thin. However if they make the same kind of progress again this winter it will bode well for a more competitive 2016.

Sebastian Vettel will be counting on that, but for now he can reflect on what appears to have been a very well-timed career move. This year Ferrari were quicker than Red Bull for the first time since 2008 – Red Bull were ahead in each intervening season, which coincided exactly with Vettel’s spell at the team.

But here’s a sobering though for Lewis Hamilton’s rivals: even if Mercedes’ advantage comes down by the same amount next year as it did this year, his car will still be more competitive than any of Vettel’s Red Bull were.

Teams reliability

Five times last year Mercedes’ drivers posted non-classifications because of car trouble. This year it only happened twice (Nico Rosberg was classified in Italy after his power unit failed), meaning the championship-winning machine was at least as reliable as anything else on the grid. It was the most significant area the team needed to make progress in after last season.

Notes on the data

The above performance data is produced by analysing the fastest lap time set by a car at each race weekend in any session.

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