Juan Williams: Trump and Ryan on collision course

Donald TrumpDonald TrumpGOP rep: Obama, Trump attack critics the same Obama, Hollywood huddle to take back Senate, House Obama emerges as key anti-Trump messenger MORE and Ted CruzTed CruzGOP rep: Obama, Trump attack critics the same Obama, Hollywood huddle to take back Senate, House Cruz: Look at Trump’s checkbook to see ‘New York values’ MORE are the main contenders in Tuesday’s GOP primary in Wisconsin.

Speaker Paul RyanPaul RyanRepublicans vow to fight new fiduciary rule White House locks in new rules for financial advisers House files brief in Supreme Court immigration case MORE’s (R-Wis.) name might as well be right next to theirs on the ballot.

If Cruz and Republican establishment powerbrokers can beat Trump in Wisconsin — and polls show Cruz is now likely to win — the odds go way up that Trump cannot win the 1,237 delegates needed to claim the Republican nomination. That means the race will be decided at the party’s convention in Cleveland in July.

In that chaotic scenario, the candidate most likely to be championed by party leaders is the highest-ranking Republican elected official in the nation: Ryan.

“If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above,” former Speaker John BoehnerJohn BoehnerIndiana GOP divided over Senate primary Juan Williams: Trump and Ryan on collision course Ryan moves stir White House talk MORE (R-Ohio) told a business conference in mid-March. “They all had a chance to win. None of them won… I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.”

The real game here is a long-term effort to get the nomination into the hands of a mainstream Republican. Party elders want someone who will not damage the party’s candidates running for the Senate and the House, as well as for state offices.

They need someone capable of repairing the splintering caused by Trump’s slurs against Mexicans, prisoners of war, women who have had abortions and a disabled reporter — as well as his mocking nicknames for rival candidates and his foray into attacking Cruz’s wife.

But first they have to keep Trump from winning the nomination outright before the convention. Once that is done, the backrooms of the Cleveland convention will be a playground for the anti-Trump forces.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is backing Cruz, as is GOP Rep. Glenn Grothman, who represents the vote-rich Milwaukee area. They bring along the same political team – including right-wing talk radio hosts — that successfully blocked efforts to recall Walker.

And they are just part of the goal-line stand by the Republican establishment to stop Trump and have an open convention.

In recent weeks, Jeb Bush, Lindsey GrahamLindsey GrahamThe Hill's 12:30 Report Trump spokeswoman: Cruz campaign being run by 'Bush people' Graham congratulates Cruz on Wisconsin win MORE and Carly Fiorina — all of who mounted their own presidential bids — have endorsed Cruz. The same desperate strategy was on display last month when 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney switched from backing John Kasich to backing Cruz in order to block Trump from winning in Utah.

Once again, Cruz is just a convenient, momentary placeholder for anti-Trump sentiments. Keep in mind that Cruz has far less of a chance than Trump of getting the delegates needed to win the nomination.

Trump can see the game and he knows the name of the establishment’s favorite son.

Last month he said: “Paul Ryan, I’m sure I’m going to get along great with him and if I don’t, he’s going to have to pay a big price – okay?”

Then Trump suddenly decided to hold a rally in Ryan’s Wisconsin hometown, Janesville.

When Trump asked the residents “How do you like Paul Ryan?” he got a shock – the crowd booed. “Wow, I was told to be nice to Paul Ryan because…Really? Alright! Wow. Are you all Republicans? Are you mostly conservative?” The crowd, to Trump’s delight, answered yes to both questions as they cheered Trump and booed Ryan.

For his part, Ryan is playing a waiting game.

He has not endorsed Cruz. The most he has done is to challenge Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban all Muslim immigrants. “This is not what our party stands for and, more importantly, it’s not what our country stands for,” Ryan said in December.

But in March, as Trump expanded his lead in the primary contest, Ryan failed to even mention Trump’s name when he condemned the crass tone of the GOP campaign.

“This has always been a tough business,” Ryan said about national politics. “And when passions flare, ugliness is sometimes inevitable. But we shouldn’t accept ugliness as the norm. We should demand better from ourselves and from one another.”

But he never mentioned Trump or cited specifics of the businessman’s provocative, even vulgar antics. That led The Washington Post editorial page to lament that Ryan failed to “confront the chief threat” to reasoned debate in the GOP.

Ryan is the “not so innocent bystander as his party slides toward Trumpism,” the Post editorial opined. The editorial even called on Ryan to get involved in the primary race by saying it is a “shame that Mr. Ryan has not repudiated Mr. Trump and promised to oppose him.”

Part of Ryan’s reluctance to go to ground with Trump is that he is already tied up with Trump-like Republicans who have blocked the Speaker from passing a House GOP budget or agreeing on a Republican alternative to the Affordable Care Act.

These are the same hard-right Republicans who mounted a successful coup against BoehnerJohn BoehnerIndiana GOP divided over Senate primary Juan Williams: Trump and Ryan on collision course Ryan moves stir White House talk MORE, the man who is now calling for an open convention and pointing to Ryan as his preferred candidate.

There is one more Wisconsin angle to the “Stop Trump” movement.

The man who will preside over negotiations at an open convention is Ryan’s friend and fellow Wisconsinite, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus. Trump met with Priebus last week to go over convention rules.

Afterwards, Trump said he had a good meeting. But Trump also recently said he feels he has not been treated “fairly” by the party and reneged on his pledge to support the party’s eventual nominee.

Ryan and Trump are on a collision course.

Juan Williams is an author and political analyst for Fox News Channel. His latest book, "We The People," will be published by Crown on April 5.